I think the mistake you made here is the 200sma was still in sight.
I am looking to go short here…maybe…any other imput would help. Still trying to grasp everything.
Hey Josh.
It closed below so I think that the ball is in your court. It wouldnt be wrong for you to take the trade. Just look for the pattern on the 15 min to take a signal. Also keep in mind David only executes signals during London trading sessions. Not sure if that matters to you or not but its definitely something to think about.
Happy Trading 
Thank you, a valuable lesson learned.
hi
its done its ATR today and asia session is known for ranging markets, also.
Hey jshear, great setup!
Cheers
Thank you JC. Yes I am aware that David only trades during the London session, I still thought it would be a good entry point so I took a very small short position. Hopefully it works out.
Theres not a great deal wrong with the technical analysis side of thing for your AUD/USD, but do watch your session cross overs… you initiated a trade as the NY was drawing to a close. And as BidDiddles says, the Aussie has done its ATR… but were not far off a new day.
You need to work on your entry technique, your point of entry on the 15 minute chart was making higher highs higher lows. Which to me was indicating a test of the 1 hour 200 SMA.
The China flash PMI for July is tonight, and also RBA Governor Stevens speaks tonight (early hours).
There is early reports that there is sell stops sitting under 1.0200, so if the China PMI is worse, then there is every chance those stops could get tripped.
On the upside there is reports of buy stops sitting at 1.0310 and some offers at 1.0320, but more buy stops above 1.0325 to take it to offers at 1.0340-60. Again these could come into play based on the China PMI and what Stevens has to say.
ps: If you took a trade, then your stop loss would HAVE to be above the 200 SMA… Dont be greedy, have your stop loss at the correct places and not try to be a smart ass with small stops in wrong places. Because the market will just pick the stops off.
Yes thats correct I only trade London. You can trade anytime… but make sure you have done the correct analysis and you not just taking a trade for the sake of having one.
Hi David I took the trade short when it pierced the 200sma on the 1hr chart. It worked out as I exited with 23 pips but in hindsight would you have waited for a 15 min. Chart confirmation…Even though it isn’t in the bbzone. I think that’s what I am gathering. Thanks David for your continued help.
Price closing below the 200 SMA is not a trade entry signal as you know, its about the price action that takes shape after the cross.
When price moved below the 200 it formed a new low for the day then started a pullback.You still need an entry timing. The 15 minute chart as I said was making higher lows and higher highs on the pullback, so unless there is a change there, then this was obviously pointing to a 1 hour 200 sma test… price cant lower if its printing higher highs higher lows! So its obviously looking for Resistance to stop… the 1 hour 200 sma.
Hi David, I have been following your posts since day dot on the other forum and here, brilliant insight, thanks mate.
One question if I may, and forgive me if you covered it in a previous post as this thread is moving faster than your Porsche down a mine shaft, but how do you calculate “take profit” ? I know you mentioned trailing price but would like to know if institutional traders have set profit targets in relation to price/support/ resistance levels or work purely on a 1:2 or 1:3 RRR.
or alternatively do you look for rail tracks, 1,2,3 going the other way to indicate an exit ?
Thanks mate
Profit targets are found using major support/resistance and also the daily MA’s can be used as targets if possible. As well as barriers.
Look for your support and resistance on the daily and hourly charts.
Of course you are looking for your rewards to be bigger than your risk, but that should never be an issue if you trade in the manner in which I teach, as your either trading with the current bias, or your trading with the bias and trend.
or alternatively can one look for rail tracks, 1,2,3 going the other way to indicate an exit ?
Possible over night, early London scenario on the GBP/USD.
The GBP is in trend mode… downtrend mode, as its below both the 100 and 200 hour SMA’s. So selling rallies is the optimal play.
I have drawn in a correction zone… the best scenario would be for the 200 SMA to hold and reject price or the 50% fib level.
The fibs and zone are subject to change should the GBP print a new low before any correction.
Only at the levels/areas I have out lined as targets… not just random areas on the chart.
Dave: Where are you showing the 200? I am showing it at 5584? Is this correct ? When I look at your chart I see 5560 level?
Jeff
Thanks, bottle of “Bollinger” on it’s way:54:
My 200 SMA is @ 1.5586. (Red) The pricing on my chart shows this as 15,586 (1.5586)
Sorry it was your charts that were confusing me now I see 15,586 is really 1.5586. Sorry long day for me today!!
Cheers
Jeff
The China PMI is going to be a major play for all you Asia traders out there tonight (early hours).
If it comes out under 48, the the Aussie/USD is going to be under pressure.
On the AUD/UD price has already bounced off the 200 SMA, but is now consolidating ahead of the data release.
Been told that there is now fresh, sell stops sitting @ 1.0235 and bids @ 1.0200-10, with more sell stops below there and bids down @ 1.0150-60.