Well we know that there is an option expiring on Monday at 1.2400 there offers at 1.2350 and with likely hood of option being 500mil HSBC option I wouldn’t bet against the Bank! I will keep an eye on 200sma through!
What do you think? 
1.2150 first as I think there will be fib retracement 38.2% from current level possibly tonight.
B
I thought price would hit 1.19 first, than I had expected a move like this one we just saw. So B is my choice. But after that 1.24 market would still be frightened about that 1.19 haven’t been reached, so it will work on it, also with the FED QE x it can be done. ((but than again I still don’t know will there be an oil crisis or will USD go long forever just to sustain oil price low))
I want to say 1.2400 its time to touch that daily 50MA
Does no one factor in the large move today was based on [U]words and hypothetical theory[/U] from Draghi with no actionable proceedings… at this stage is all talk, but no action from the ECB, and the panic buying maybe over from the speculators.
Also factor in profit taking on the move and fading from dealing desks as well as the barrier @ 1.2400.
Just some more salt and pepper to taste while you make your choice.
For how long can ‘words’ hold a market up?
We will soon find out.
hey! i did. edited my post before you posted
post #1180
Most likely none, since there is a strong resistance at 1.2125-30 on a 4hr chart.
Sorry folks, meant strong resistance at 1.2325-30 on 4hr chart.
Personally, it sounded very arrogant to me, I think one of Draghi’s buddy’s needs a new villa somewhere so he threw some big words around like, “Believe me, it will happen” and “whatever it takes!” blah blah blah…
2 seconds later there’s still talk of 90% chance Greece will leave the Euro, more scare tactics…
I like to call Fridays, “Bearish Fridays”
I think we’ll see a drop back down after a few more bulls get their rocks off.
Of course, I’ll stay out till’ it settles down and I can get back to trading.
Charles
Hi San just look left, the EU has been Long Bias since braking the range between 24th and 25th. I guess when price found resitance on the 100 ema you figured to go short, that was against the current bias for long positions.btw also german cpi data tomorrow. might get euro back on the ground and giving a buzzkill to the euphoria
Take a fixed risk derivative on the short for Friday. Some tasty prices being punted around.
There is a binary for a one-touch 1.2150 priced at 14/16
You are going seriously over my head here, but I guess I will learn it sooner or later. Keep up this awesome thread. Cheers,
Mike
Possible Trade idea: there seems to be a confluence of the 200 EMA, 4 hr 50%Fib retracement, and old support which may become new resistance, as well as the offers mentioned by David at 1.2350. looks like a it would be a nice place to look for a sell
Many, I am sure your forum memebers made more pips today then the crowd did
hehe no way stay with the trend and wait for the trend to restart even if you have to wait untill next week
Mike,
It was a one-touch binary that was early priced.
14/16 for price to touch 1,2150 before close on Friday. Therefore if you bought, your risk would be 16 as the binary fills at 0, if price fails to hit 1.2150. But if it hits 1.2150 then the binary fills at 100.
So lets say you went small £500 with a risk of 16, your risk is £8,000, fills at 0.
But reward is £42,000, fills at 100.
That is a basic binary, but there are many types and structures.
Its fixed risk… so no matter what the market does, you can only lose the 16 fixed risk… you can’t get stopped out unless it fills at 0… ie… expires.
after we reach 1.2283 and below, say 1.2278, I think there’s no turning back towards 1.23, so maybe we can’t reach that 1.2350 ( ? ) just asking
I tweeted some bids for the USD/JPY last night and the night before and before that… pretty much same levels. The main one is the 78.00. As I said before its the BOJ that are scooping up the sellers for sushi breakfast each day, but yet, speculators think they can take the ACB and other Asian names on… must be on drugs!
Until the BOJ and other Asian names decide they have enough at this level, then price will not break the 78.00… okay let me make that clear… Until The BOJ & Other Asian Names Decide That They Have Enough & This Level (78.00) They Wont Stop Pumping The Life Out Of The Sellers!
Be my guest, take them on, its your money!
Some of my sources say that the BOJ have bids around the 77.50-60’S… NOT CONFIRMED YET. In order to set a bear trap on sellers, for when the BOJ decide to let the 78.00 become weak.