they are not exactly ‘bound together’. only when the usd is being sold do they correlate closely. if china are buying aud they are not also buying eur.
audusd also correlates with gold. eurusd with gbpusd. but in these markets when a sentence from draghi flips the market then yes there will be correlation cos risk on means usd being sold.
david i believe said you should trade the charts separately. though i do know others who trade with correlation in mind.
Here’s some more of that salt ‘n’ pepper that I sprinkle from time to time… 78% of the time we get a rallie based on ECB comments on their often ‘Thursday’ scheduled conferences, we have had a [B]100% +[/B] reversal on the Friday after the panic buying is over and the empty words are absorbed. Of course, 78% is not 100%. But its a big frekin number.
it will be closer to 1.24 but not sure it will get there, imo/.
my opinion is based on: pro money wants to sell high…
~ next week is ECB rate decision and NFP. If ECB came out with rate cut and NFP poor figs (which is the more likely outcome) then they would want to be selling into a recent rally rather than 6 year lows.
cheers mike - it was a loose correlation just as a ‘fyi’ and i agree with you. i looked at figs a few months ago and it was 72% correlation iirc, but obv its all over the place at the moment.
appears a few ppl have had a good day today, well done. i got stopped on my CL trade, and maybe i should have noted that usd was looking weak and avoided the trade. so many decisions!
Now I understand why that binary one touch looked so appealing. Over 1:5 risk to reward, and a 78% historical probability of getting said reward… Simply delicious…
Thanks for enlightening ( only when the usd is being sold do they correlate closely. if china are buying aud they are not also buying eur. ) learning till death.
but without that Draghi-speak Aussie haven’t been able to reache 1.04 in a so short period. and as I see, Au is a currency that likes to give some back after it reaches some clifftops. it is his “charm” and I would wish, let it be his chance for long living, haha. okay, it’s sily fantasies.
IFR says:
-A short while ago a macro account paid EUR/USD for “couple hundred”
-They ran into CTA sellers circa 1.2320/30, some sov names selling also
-IMF confirms Greek program slippage would require extra financing
-They also say “not my job” look to the EU for those funds
-Similar note, IMF say Spain & Italy must accelerate reforms,
-EUR/USD slips a bit on the news EU has to foot the bill alone
I wouldn’t call it going against the trend or bias, I’d say we took a nice detour, had some nice calamari and ouzo by the beach, and now we’re heading back to the trend and the bias…
ha, i have been tempted to have as my signature the disclaimer “do not believe what anyone says on a forum”. at least verify it first as its prob BS, esp coming from me.
good to hear peoples varying opinions on the EURUSD though. didn’t know about the 100% reversal!
good thread, and seems a good bunch of posters on here as well. BP i think have bots to clear up spammers so am surprised they didnt get this one - i saw a spammer post yest and before i cld report it, it had been deleted & he was banned. i believe the spammers are also bots - they use google translate to write a response and do the minimum required posts before being able to post links and then wham “earn 3000% per trade buying fake penny stocks from a boiler room”.
Dave, I don’t recall us discussing this terminology at all, maybe I missed it, could you please explain it:
from IFR re: USD/CAD:
System SARs; daily close back above 1.0155 (hefty) 1.0165, 1.0200, 1.0215
Downside SARs; daily close below 1.0105 (some hedged) 1.0085, 1.0065
No one can know where the price will be by Monday.
But we can elaborate scenarios with the tools that we have.
So far price jump over the 100 and 200 MA’s, So bias is up, but price stop at 1.23 area which is o surprise one of tomorrow’s option level.
With this last swing in place Tuesd -low today’s high, we have a confluence BBZ between 1.2185 - 1.2215 which is the 38-50% retracement with the 200MA in the center. It is also the low Tues and Wed. of last week.
If we want to sell high we have to look for a decent place to do so the next place up is the 1.2360-1.24 range
Does the price will advance in the direction of the least resistance?
If the Euro will fade all the way back down to 1.2150~, will you sell it on the way down? If so what entry would you look for to sell high? Or are you saying your done for the week because the price would just be arriving in the BBzone as the week closes?
That was a bit rude. Okay, sorrry that I can’t speak perfectly your language but there’s some other languages in this world.
sorry for disturbing the company with correlation. i’m just that type of person who likes to think much thing (not every) can interconnect…
bye
and I would wish, let it be his chance for long living, haha. okay, it’s sily fantasies.