I don’t have a pin on my broker feed but checking 1H here’s what I see: price today broke through the recent support around 1.5920, went back to retest it and is as I write heading lower again.
I can’t see any setup currently for a long on this pair but for those who trade 1H bars (not me) there was a nice two bar reversal ten hours ago to go short on. That’s of course hindsight now 
Thanks for your quick reply!I was just wondering the 4hr candle getting one heck of a wick below the bollinger bands and thought maybe we get a quick 70 to 100 point retracement.Having said that were at the closing of US stock market and the slowing of the forex market so it may take a while?
It’ll happen when it happens, the nice thing is that PA will tip us off when it’s time. Until then, sit on hands.
Iam your guys camp long term on the down trend.The next 3 or 4 candles we might some type of retracement to the upside just because of the over extension of the wick below the bollinger bands.Thank guys for the feed, got to head to work.
Back from work and i see the market was dead for the last 10 hours with a total of 30 points worth of movement.With further study i was not actually looking at a Pinbar as you both pointed out.Matt you mentioned traffic and looking at a pdf you provided the candle was not meeting any eyes from previous candles.:o I will go back and sit in the corner till called upon.
Thank for the pump Matt.:)The way your trading is a different concept than what iam used too,without looking into the James 16 thread.I know sometime in the future you would like forex to be your main source of income.
I have a coworker who is taking a dip into futures trading with a 5 thousand starting balance starting monday.He joined a website with booklet and traderoom.I have him totally terrified:eek: with the emotional upheavel and record keeping he needs (should) keep.I also got him him to swear he will stop trading for a week when he gets a 20% drawdown on his original capital.He wants me to get up at 6am to monitor is actions and reactions.
My question to you he is going trade probably 2-3 hours in the mourning which i beleive is doable and keep your day job.Forex it seems to be more of practical longer term type of trading (4hr-daily).How do you cope with this type type of trading when your working a full time job,just set it and forget it with sl and tp or with alarms or both?(before responding thanks for your reply)
Sorry to butt in but I’m like that:)
I’m not very knowledgeable on futures, but 5000 sounds a bit small. Margin requirements and available leverage and lot sizes on futures trading might make it so that a trade can only go against him a few points in order to not risk more than a few percent. Mini-futures sound like a good idea.
I would suggest something from the J16 people - let him prove to you and himself that he can do this by running a 1000-5000 (depending on the planned real starting account size) demo for three months. If he can’t do it on demo, then chances are he can’t do it with a live account.
First thanks for your responces (Matt,Magnus).Magnus i should have been more specifac.he is trading e-mini futures (s&p) and your right even with the e-minis he is risking to much.At $12.50 a tick per !/4 point movement and a 2point loss is 2 percent of capital 10 losses in a row and he is at 20 percent loss .The kicker he will be starting with 2 contracts so he can scale out, so you can double that.I agree with demo trading on this one because its your only recourse on futures.I see if he will consider this before he dips his toe in the pool.
Matt thanks for your thought process on longer term trading and 3 hour.The daily i guess will be the easier way to go for me.The support and resistence is another thing i have not tackled yet.I have been using mvg crossovers,RSI,paroblic sars,previous candle stick lows,bollinger bands for entrys and exits.The learning process is never ending.(but i love it:p)
Based on the weeklies I’m thinking about three pairs: AUDCAD, NZDJPY and USDCHF. Nothing decided though, hmmm…
If i place any orders I’ll post in my thread.
Bank of Canada rate decision tomorrow.
I’ve noticed this on the NZD/USD daily. A hammer(i think thats what it’s called) forming on an area of support. That area has been acting as S&R for years altho has been broken quite a bit lately but regardless of that, it looks like the correction after the initial uptrend is complete, indicated by the break of the blue trendline. I’m fairly new to PA trading and not confident enough to trade with real money yet but i just wanted to get some opinions on this trade.
Oh and Matt, I don’t want to hijack your thread so if this was meant to be your trading journal or somethin like that then just say an i won’t post anymore charts.
Matt USD/CHF is finally starting to consolidate a little bit after breaking thru 150 and 200 exp moving averages the last two weeks.I am a little wary about playing a reversal but maybe a bounce off the avgs coming up.
I have a update on my coworker.I fired him off a e-mail that day we posted on the subject concerning going live in futures so fast.He heeded the advise and will stay in demo till spring.He opened a thousand dollar IRA account with a broker so he could get Thinkorswim charting software for free.He is at this time having success in demo his goals seem realistic 12 ticks a week (3 points).The trading with two contracts still seems risky but will see.
We just did a book exchange Trend Trading for a Living by Dr Thomas Carr for Money Making Candlestick patterns by Steve Palmquist.The candle stick patterns can be profitable in trending markets as Magnus stated about Martin Pring.One simple candlestick pattern was clicking at almost 70% for 4 months in a bull market on Nasdaq.
Very nice post Matt!
Thanks for the tip, I’m going to read his thread and try to get hold of those books.
I’ve been doing some research lately and came across this PDF. Although dating from 2008 it puts into perspective your expected / desired returns. The biggest average annual return on this list of hedge funds was in the region of 60%.
http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/BA_HF100_090511.pdf
This thread was shaping up well with some very useful insights and for some reason dropped dead true to its name. Hoping to see some more good posts here.
Regards,
Muthu.
That was an interesting find and it sort of gives us a perspective of what a good annual return might be.
I also noticed that only the top 3 out of the 100 did that well. The others generally averaged somewhere between 10-30% return per year.
My goal for this year is to end with 0% or better. Many would laugh at me for that, but then most of them will be gone from forex by the end of the year…
[QUOTE=MattW2009;179941]It really is being a quiet start to the year! Trades on the dailies have been few and far between and none of them have been of significant quality to make them worth posting here.
[/QUOTE]
It’s the quiet periods that cause problems for me. I end up finding an average trade and convincing myself it’s great 
That being said, I’ve spotted a bearish daily pinbar on CAD/JPY which has been in a range for the past year. The top of the range is the 38.2% retracement of the big move on the monthly and also the 90.000 round number.
Would you rate this as a good setup?
That should please him!
Very nice analysis Matt. I looked at it last night but the 88.0 level made me chicken out and take it off my interest list. I have no doubts you’ll get your 8R trade though, since I skipped it it’s almost a done deal now 
Well the CAD/JPY isn’t really doing very much at all so while we wait for that to move I thought i’d bring up another chart for discussion.
On the USD/CAD weekly chart there is a strong S+R line at the 1.025 level which acted as resistance back in 07/08 and as support towards the end of last year. Price has now broken the line and has come back up to retest it and has formed a pin bar. To be honest, if the pinbar wasn’t there I would be looking for some other reason to go short because to me it looks like a textbook breakout-pullback-continuation.
There is no other confluence there like fibs or round numbers…1.025 in my opinion isn’t a very strong psychological level…regardless I have a sell stop under that pinbar…it’s a demo account after all
