Delta Phenomenon and Historical Data

Hi all. Not sure where this belongs, since its not exactly a free system (but neither are Wilder’s other things in Dale’s thread, so there :p), but here it goes. I am an economics graduate from the University of Michigan, and since I’m so into patterns and statistical analysis, I have been intrigued by this system (unfortunately, like Dale, I cannot disclose any information about the system, due to copyright and ethical reasons). Herein lies the difficulty. I have been studying the system, but to really get into it requires copious amounts of historical price charts of varying time frames for numerous financial instuments (stocks, indices, currencies, commodities, etc). I was wondering if anyone knew where I could easily download sizable archives of these charts at no cost (I know some sites can charge considerable fees). Any help would be greatly appreciated.

Happy Pips,
Son of Sweden

If i were to help in finding the information you need, THEN would you provide some insight on your system? or is this some kinda “ima gunna find sum suckers on to do ma work and cuz i dont wanna pay” deal? how is this thread supposed to help the newbies that this site was made for anyways?

this is a totally misplaced thread-- this belongs in ‘lying about having a FREE SYSTEM to get FREE INFORMATION’ forum --look for it, its there… :cool:

also, i would suggest to never again comment on Dale Patterson’s postings since you with 8 posts have no say. Dale is much more than an honorary member and has helped youngins find their way to success on this site for quite some time. Wow, you must be really new to this site when you think you can challenge DALE’s posts…:mad:

and finally, (people call me critical7 for a reason…) another reason why i believe this thread should be termintated is because i feel you might be posting for the wrong reasons. I’ll bet any money that you haven’t read Pipcrawler’s disclaimer on NO ADVERTISING since you have freely created this thread hoping for a quick reply and be off on your merry way to use your system and not tell anyone about it.

why am i being so critical of your thread do you ask? eh… i’ve just been bored after netting 207 pips yesterday using my own system and taking the week off. during my downtime i would like to serve as a vigilante in catching violators on like yourself.

in all honesty though, good luck finding what you need son of a sweden. i hope your system ends up working for you. i just don’t think this is the right place for your inquiries…


I am terribly sorry if my post has come off as anything other than sincere and respectful. My jest about Dale’s “New Concepts” thread was meant only as a harmless joke. I believe Dale may be the one of the most dedicated and helpful people on this forum (as of my admittedly limited experience), and I am slowly but methodically working my way through his thread, as well as learning the SI system, in addition to (as I have said) working on studying Wilder’s other great achievement, the Delta Phenomenon. I would really like to think that this is less of “lying about having a FREE SYSTEM to get FREE INFORMATION”, and more of an homage to Dale… I imagine this thread to be much like “New Concepts”-- ie. For legal reasons, I wouldn’t be able to disclose hard details of the system (much like Dale in "New Concepts), but I would be more than happy to discuss and–hopefully–help others who are looking at using this system. My ultimate goal would be to prove its usefulness, so that I could advise others as to whether it would suit them to “hop on board”. Not to mention, but I think that putting said “information” out there would benefit the entire community, or at least those who are interested in statistical analysis over long time frames, as I myself am inclined.

Finally, I appreciate what you’re doing, trying to police the forums here and all, but I don’t believe I have broken any rules, and as for Dale… I have nothing but respect and admiration for him, and that respect grows greater with every page I read from his thread. As a matter of fact, Dale (if you see this… please see this!), I’m a big fan, and as I know you’ve briefly used the Delta Phenomenon, I would love if you’d put your two cents (or pips) in! I mean to join your discussion on the “New Concepts” thread, but I’ve still got about 85 pages to get through. Maybe later this week you’ll hear from me!

Once again, I’m sorry if I offended anyone. I’m growing to love this little corner of the internet, and hope that someday I can make some kind of contribution even half as great as Dale has.

Happy Pips,
Son of Sweden

Good (Sunday) morning!!!

Well first of all:

I can’t thank you BOTH enough for your kind words!!! I’ll tell you this: at THIS point in time they’re even MORE appreciated than usual!!! Things ‘ain’t good my side’ thanks to the market volatility (I’ll be posting about this on the ‘New Concepts’ thread after completing this post).


I also appreciate your defense although I think I ‘got the spirit’ of what sverigesson saying. But again: nice to know someone ‘has my back’ just in case!!!

The problem is that ‘The Delta Phenomenon’ IS copyright material and all that sverigesson was asking is where to get (as he says) the ‘copius amounts of data’ necessary to ‘solve’ Delta for different instruments.


I cannot answer your question i.e. I only use the historical data available to me on my platforms (which is around two / three years worth of data on the daily charts at, would you believe, Deltastock i.e. a bit of a ‘coeincidence’ wouldn’t you say)???)!!!

With regard to ‘The Delta Phenomenon’ itself: I HAD high hopes for it (and, as you probably know, I do NOT use it to trade because it’s just a ‘tad’ to ‘wishy washy’ for me i.e. it leaves far too much to my interpretation of things and that’s something I’m not good at). I’ve been ‘tracking’ the Dow with it and, NOW AND THEN, it SEEMS to be ‘on the mark’ but lately: every ‘prediction’ that I’ve made using it (for ‘fun’ let me reiterate) has gone nowhere. Whether or not the Dow has ‘inverted’ for the very first time in a gazillion years I know not. According to ME (my interpretation): the Dow should have started to rally / recover last week already but so far it’s nowhere CLOSE!!!

Whether being a ‘Director’ and receiving the monthly information is any good I cannot comment on because I cannot afford to subscribe to that service (it ain’t cheap). In my honest opinion: the ONLY reasons I COULD believe that ‘The Delta Phenomenon’ has merit are because of the price that Wilder paid for it and the fact that he swears by it and this carries weight with me BECAUSE of the sheer genius of ‘New Concepts’. Having said that: if it was NOT for ‘New Concepts’ I’d have my doubts!!! But that’s just a very nice way of saying: ‘it does not work me’ BUT, of course, it COULD be because I’ve really not spent much time with it i.e. only the ‘basics’.

As ‘the old man’ says: ‘…one trader’s cup of tea may be another’s nemesis’!!!

Sorry: I know that’s not really answered your questions but it’s the best I can do. Ask me ANYTHING about ‘New Concepts’ and I know I can be of help!!!


Dale. (


First of all, let me say that I’m honored to have you at my thread! :slight_smile:

I am very interested in the Delta Phenomenon, mostly from an academic standpoint (after 18 straight years of school, you’d think I’d run out of room in this head of mine)–though I won’t lie, if I figure it out accurately enough and it works, I would definitely start trading with it, at least as a sort of trend predictor. I agree with you, unlike New Concepts, there is some room for interpretation, and due to the nature of statistics it’s not quite as precise as I’d originally hoped, but after reading through New Concepts and realizing that this guy is like the Newton or Einstein of technical analysis, I find it hard to believe that he would put so much time into the Delta Phenomenon if it had no merit. The scientist in me understands the scientist in him, and it doesn’t make any sense if it doesn’t work to ‘some’ degree of accuracy (which, after all, is exactly what he mentions).

Like I’ve said, I’m mostly interested in seeing if there is truly some merit in the idea that markets are predictable, and if so, to what degree of accuracy. It’s kind of become a personal quest, but unfortunately, without at least some ‘veins’ of data to ‘mine’, that quest is going nowhere fast.

Everyone: Any help would be appreciated. I’m sure that Dale would agree, that even though it’s not his ‘cup of tea’, this is an important topic to be investigated. And anyone else who has the book (I know, its even more expensive than “New Concepts”, sorry! :(), I’d be more than happy to compare notes.

Dale: Thanks for stopping in (it’s an honor, seriously) and for your reply. (Truth be told, I was kind of hoping that “of course Dale will have years of data stored on his harddrive, he’s amazing!”, but guess I shouldn’t take an already great man and try to unrealistically deify him, eh?) Thanks again.

Happy Pips,
Son of Sweden

Edit: P.S. 20 more pages of “Trading Strategies” down, 65 more to go! You’ll be hearing from me again soon!


The LESS I have stored on my hard drive the better trader I am i.e. there is less for me to ‘mess about with’!!!

If you’re interested in this type of thing (which obviously you are) then you should also take a look at the stuff by ‘Gann’ (and there are a few others which don’t come to mind right now). I’m sure others with ‘chime in’ with a few names.

Look: I’m quite prepared to discuss things like ‘The Delta Phenomenon’. I for one would LOVE there to be merit in it if for no other reason than to protect ‘the old man’s’ reputation (because the very FEW posts that I HAVE found on various websites have been less than complimentary I assure you). I have (a few times) tried to solve the ‘Intermediate Term Delta’ for the Dow as you already know and, SOMETIMES it appears to be ‘on the nose’ but then other times THAT COUNT LIKE NOW for instance: I don’t see the correclation between what’s happening NOW and what happened four months prior. Having said THAT though: it’s like EVERYTHING in this business i.e. look at at current chart and you see nothing. Look at the SAME chart next week and all of a sudden what you were expecting to see LAST week suddenly ‘jumps out’ at you so who knows: in four months time I may be solving ‘Intermediate Term Delta’ for the Dow and I’ll have one of those ‘ah hah’ moments!!!

There is possibly another reason why it’s NOT ‘my cup of tea’ and that’s this ‘technical thing’ i.e. I have the kind of mind that is PURELY technical whereas someone who is more ‘free thinking’, possibly ‘creative’, would ‘see’ things that would ordinarily ‘pass me by’. That could be YOUR ‘edge’ (and hopefully it is if you’re going to trade ‘The Delta Phenomenon’).

I AM pleased that you’ve got ‘New Concepts’ though. I’ll tell you honestly that in spite of how things are going NOW: if the truth be told it’s my fault and, other than the ONE NECESSARY ‘fix’ to the Swing Index System, the systems themselves cannot be improved upon (at least not if you’re a technical trader). When I am FORCED to be honest with myself the answer is ALWAYS the same: when I’m ‘down’ it’s because I’ve ‘strayed’ from the overall design and implementation of those systems e.g. trying to get ‘smart’ and trade on the 1 hour or 5 minute timeframe or something stupid like that or not trusting what his systems are telling me. They’re NEVER wrong and I’m MOSTLY wrong of late. I don’t know if you read my last post on the ‘New Concepts’ thread (of today) but it’ll ‘blow your mind’ as it did mine ONCE AGAIN!!!

As I said (I’ve digressed): I for one would love to discuss ‘The Delta Phenomenon’ if for no other reason than to ‘prove it’. It could very easily be done on the same basis as the ‘New Concepts’ thread in my opinion. Unfortuanately there ARE those that have the opinion that the ‘New Concepts’ thread is sort of ‘elitest’ i.e. it’s not really ‘free’ but I disagree to be honest. The cost of ‘New Concepts’ is less than a person would need to open a micro account and I’ve always been of the opinion that if you cannot or are not prepared to ‘spring’ $75 (maybe less the discount that I managed to arrange and they were kind enough to grant to members of babypips) then you should not be trading anyway in my opinion. I think I may have said this before: being ‘prepared’ to ‘spring’ a few USD for education shows ‘intent’ and those are the people I am only too pleased to share experiences (and troubles) with. Not only that: there is so much information contained in these books that it would just be far too much trouble to have to ‘explain’ and ‘detail’ the stuff on a daily basis (which WOULD happen)!!! If everyone is ‘on the same page’ it’s a WHOLE LOT easier to discuss something. Put it another way: for the cost of ‘the book’ and the EQUIVALENT amount of capital in a LIVE account: you would EVENTUALLY become a very wealthy person I believe (yes: with that amount of money it WOULD take a very long time although not as long as one may imagine)!!!

Sorry: again I digress!!!

More to the point (I just remembered): I’m sure that Wilder on the Delta Society website actually gives details of two data providers (unless I’m thinking about somebody else that was trying to ‘plaguerise’ his systems. I forget now but I distinctly remember asking someone if they could provide data for the DAX and they could not.

Anyway: I hope you do ‘fathom’ ‘The Delta Phenomenon’ out!!! Put it another way: you are OBVIOUSLY aware of the sheer POWER of it if it can predict future turning points and market direction!!!




By the way (and don’t get me wrong here I am NOT ‘punting’ that you go out and buy ‘The Delta Phenomenon’): IF there is ENOUGH interest I am 100% sure that I can organise a discount on it from ‘the old man’. I have INDEED asked about this before and they said it would be fine and would come back to me but they did not (I now they’re busy) and I did not pursue it for the simple reason that up until now you are the only other person who has approached the subject. As you said: it’s NOT cheap but then again if we get ENOUGH interest shown maybe we can try to organise something (MAYBE even some type of ‘incentive’ for the subscriptions or ‘directorships’). One thing I CAN say about ‘the old man’: his livelihood does NOT hinge on the sale of his books!!!

(And before I get any ‘BS’ comments: no I do NOT work for him, am not related to him, am not going to inherit his fortune, and have never met ‘the man’. I do NOT receive ANY remuneration from him or his organisation and never will because it would compromise my ‘neutrality’ AND it’s never been offered)!!!


First off, sorry things aren’t going well. Haven’t quite gotten there (63 pages to go), but I’m working on it! Hope you get back on the tracks and start pumping out profits again!

Secondly, I have been going through little bits and pieces of “New Concepts” and its really fascinating, especially how he derived all these equations and systems etc. without computers to analyze data. Quite remarkable. However, I must say that in the SI section (which I’ve been concentrating on first), a little part of me (the part that has studied physics and economics for the past 4 years) was dissapointed at a few arbitrary decisions in his derivation of the SI equation… the need to constrain values to +/-100, the addition of the 50 in front, and the inclusion of a “limit constant”… in my opinion (and I think you’ve noticed this too, Dale) it seems to make things a little sloppy in modern day markets. A more generalized version would seem to be in order, with a recalculated TISAR value… but since Mr. Wilder is a hojillionaire, he can’t be bothered to fix some old equation in a book (heck, in his position, I wouldn’t!). Still, sloppy or not, if you’re convinced that it works regardless, then I’m in!

Thirdly, I’ve been looking at Deltastock, and it seems pretty good. It’s regulated by the EU at least, they seem to be a pretty good sized broker, and transfers seem easy enough. A few questions though, that maybe you could help me with.

  1. To give credit where its due, if I sign up, I list you as my IB in the field, “How did you find out about us?”

  2. What kind of documents do I need to send them? And can they be emailed or faxed?

  3. Set my margin to .5%, right?

  4. They ask if I have a degree in the field… I do. They aren’t gonna try and screw me because of that, right? :stuck_out_tongue:

  5. Do you recommend credit card transfers for deposits and withdrawals, or bank wires. Seems like bank wires gets around potential exchange rate issues, but I really don’t know.

Anyways, to everyone: Sorry this post has been a hodgepodge, and not about the topic at hand… but anyone who wants to discuss the delta phenomenon, chime in! If we can get some interest, maybe Dale will be able to swing a discount for you guys on the book!

Happy Pips,
Son of Sweden

Well now!!!

I am EXCEPTIONALLY ‘taken back’ by your ‘insight’ into the SIS (UNLESS you’ve of course ‘skipped’ to the very end of my ‘New Concept’s’ thread and are cheating)!!! The reason I make this statement is because EVERY ISSUE that you’ve just brought up has been an issue for me and I’ve ‘remodelled’ the SIS (it’s call the ‘FSS’ or ‘Fintrans Swing System’, ‘Fintrans’ for no other reason than it’s the name of my company). I’m not going to go into detail here because I’ve already covered it in the other thread but, suffice to say, the ‘stock standard’ SIS as detailed in the book is fine IF you’re trading stocks or commodities but the inclusion of a LIMIT and thus the resultant value of the the TRAILING INDEX SAR is WAY out for forex pairs (which, as I say, I’ve now ‘remodelled’).

Regarding Deltstock:

I’ve had no problems at all with them (or should I say that the ‘one or two’ that I HAVE had have been sorted out to my satisfaction). I’ve also had none (if any) complaints about them from the people that use my Wilder ‘indicators’ that have been coded for Delta’s platform (I hate to use the word ‘indicators’ because they’re not really ‘indicators’ i.e. I’ve turned the ‘systems’ into ‘indicators’ but they’re still ‘systems’ NOT indicators if that makes any sense at all)!!!

Now PLEASE note this: you do not HAVE to mention me as the IB (I’ve been accused of ‘peddling’ before)!!! Of course IF you mention me as the IB then you’ll get all my ‘indicators’ as well as my ‘undivided attention’ via Yahoo Messenger (well maybe not SO ‘undivided’ but you get what I mean). As I say though: it’s NOT a prerequisite for my input. A person SHOULD be able to trade Wilder’s stuff with or without my ‘indicators’ i.e. they do not replace ‘the book’ (and I’ve had this argument with a few people)!!!

With Delta: they HAVE to have the ORIGINAL DOCUMENTS before your account is opened. You need to download the documents, complete them, email for fax them back to Delta, they will then check them, and if they’re correct they will either send a courier to you or you need to mail them the documents. They MUST have the originals (and, to be honest, this has always made me feel comfortable from the start i.e. if they were NOT legit they’re SURE going to a whole lot of trouble and expense to prove otherwise)!!!

Margin is 0.5% (which is 200:1): quite correct. Again: I ‘model’ my money management on Wilder’s Capital Management i.e. I’ve ‘scaled’ his Capital Management down using the assumption that he traded with NO leverage (1:1). Essentially this means (to me) that I only use 1.875% of my capital on any single position / instrument and I only margin 7.5% of my total capital at any one time. This may be seem very conservative but, as I said to everyone else today, it’s the one rule I’ve NOT managed to break in the past few weeks and it’s the ONLY reason I’m still ‘treading water’!!!

Why are they asking about a degree??? I don’t have the FAINTEST idea!!! I don’t think that Delta will be ‘out to get you though’!!! Could just be for statistical purposes or something like that (of course you could just ask them why they want to know). Having said that I think they also ask something about whether or not you’re a professional trader or not (or something like that) and I believe that has something to do with their tax laws / directives / incentives (again: something like that).

I HIGHLY recommend bank wire transfers and I’ll tell you why:

I have always ONLY used a credit card to deposit funds at Delta. When you want to withdraw, however, it can become a REAL pain. The ‘golden rule’ is that wherever the money has come from: any withdrawals have to go back to that VERY same account. This has caused two major issues for me (oddly enough: these were the two issues I mentioned above). One: if you’ve made ten ‘smallish’ transfers to your account and then you want to withdraw a ‘biggish’ amount (of profit) then each of the original transfers are ‘matched’ to the withdrawals. In other words: your ‘lump sum’ withdrawal request will be processed in ten smaller portions up to the amount of the initial transfers. If you’ve made a nice profit and withdraw MORE than you’ve deposited then the balance is sent via bank wire transfer. I’ve had one occasion where only ‘parts’ of a withdrawal came through initially i.e. three ‘parts’ went ‘missing’ for two weeks. After much ‘frothing at the mouth’ it turned out that MasterCard had actually made the mistake and not Delta and I must say that even after my ‘less than cordial’ HOURLY emails to Delta (I’m not the type of person that someone wants to OWE money to i.e. patience does not EXIST when it comes to money) they never failed to respond and keep me up to date until the problem was sorted out. Also (in this country anyway): credit cards ‘expire’ so you will eventually land up with the problem where you’ve deposited money from one credit card and now that card is no longer valid EVEN ALTHOUGH the replacement card is the same ACCOUNT NUMBER but a different CARD NUMBER. In this case you’d have to get a letter from the bank stating that this is the case. Bank wire transfers are much better (although they take a little longer) and, the bonus at Delta, is that withdrawals can then be made DIRECTLY through the platform i.e. no forms or ‘BS’ or anything like that. You put your withdrawal request through on the platform and ‘hey presto’ ‘as if by magic’ the money appears in your bank account.

I think that answers all your questions.

By the way: I see someone has started a thread in the ‘new traders’ section (as you know I simply detest the word ‘noob’ or ‘newbie’) asking about Gann Theory and the like. They’ve put a link or two to some sites giving details (I’ve not checked the links out but I will shortly).



Edit: I’ve just had a look at those links to Gann Theory etc. Sorry: it’s nothing like ‘The Delta Phenomenon’ but is interesting nevertheless.


I read in a recent post about something called the FSS when was looking at joining the forum, but I didn’t know what it was all about, and naturally I started at the beginning of your thread when I really started getting into it. Glad my college student’s mind didn’t let me down (trust me, if you did anything in physics with an equation that wasn’t generalized enough, the profs would lay into you big time).

I ask all these questions, because as a recently graduated college student and new devotee of forex trading, I don’t actually have the money to start an account (and probably wouldn’t for quite some time). Fortunately, a well to do friend of my father’s approached me recently with a business proposition involving me putting some of his extra money to work trading. I eventually settled on forex, and the rest is history. I’ve been working for the past month researching the basics as well as strategies, systems, money management… basically everything. And soon enough, after some diligent testing, I hope to put these systems to use to make us both some good money (this will be my day job, most likely… with unemployment how it is here in Michigan, even I, with a fancy degree from a respected university, can’t get a job).

More questions… what exactly do they need? They have an option to sign up online… do I still need to physically send them stuff? And if I do, how long should it take (I’d like to get started soon after testing is done)?

If your mind works in the direction of a traders, then you can expect to have a decent grasp of whats going on in a year, become competent in two, middling to good in 3 and maybe never reach EXCELLENT !

a good mentor can cut these times tremendously, because she/he can keep you from re-inventing the wheel and cut directly to where the profit lives, but finding one is not a simple proposition these days, as there are far too many newbs who want to get rich and far too little time to trade and teach !

Its the easiest thing in the world to lose money in forex — shucks, just like falling off a log. The secret is to KEEP the money and learn how to keep keeping it !

All of this is learnable since forex is NOT brain surgery (i personally have no brain and do mighty swell !) but it aint so simple that you just step in and start making the bux.

I have no more advice than any other ---- learn and learn and learn and gain experiene with your demo (set to use the SAME amount as you will with real money) and when you can HONESTLY do 8 out of 10 trades, try it for real using absolute tight money management and avoid overtrading.

By a year or so after that, you should be hitting on all 32 cylinders and have become a master of the universe with the trophy wife, home, car, kids and a happy investor friend !

just trade with the trend always (ok, lots of money made going opposite the trend, and also a lot of peeps wiped out !)

enjoy and trade well

hope to see you alive in a year



Thanks for your advice, and yes, I plan to demo for a while and definitely trade small lots once I’ve started. Unfortunately, its true that I would desire a quick and easy road to riches, but I more than understand that that is simply not possible. The systems in these books take a lot of effort to learn and to implement (more so that other system I have studied), and I believe that with my proven track record of quicker learning and analytical ability (plus I love math), that I should be able to implement them quickly and effectively. I’m really not trying to “get rich quick”, but I feel that if I can learn and implement a trading system which, though complex, is highly effective, then I should go for it (Not to mention great money management, of which reading Dale’s thread has taught me good habits).

Anyways, I never meant to turn this thread into my own personal “Convo with Dale”/new trader advice thread (not that you aren’t welcome, Dave!), so back to the original purpose.

Anyways, I’ve found a small repository of data for commodities, but it only includes monthly bars and only from 1975-2008, which, as Dale would know, isn’t even enough to solve the SLTD for even two periods, making the data pretty much useless. Once again, a shout out from me (and Dale, I hope)… Anyone who knows where to get historical data from anything; stocks, indices, commodities, forex, anything!, give me a shout.

As always, Happy Pips,
Son of Sweden

enjoy and trade well



(It’s Monday morning here 00h35 so I’m up to place orders).

I think the ‘register online’ that you’re talking about is for a demo account which, obviously, is not a bad thing to get started while you wait for your live account to be opened. Delta’s platform is proprietary and it does take some getting used to but once you’re ‘good’ with it I promise you that you’ll start wondering why everybody else doesn’t do it that way. There are one or two little ‘funnies’ with it but I’ll help you with those.

Now you know:

(I get philosophical when I’m tired)!!!

I, for one, have always said that this is the hardest way to make a living (at least of anything I know of or have ‘tackled’ in my forty three years).


There is ONE thing that I PERSONALLY will add to that statement from now on and that is this:


I’m not going to go into too much detail here but I was absolutely shocked this weekend when I finally finished ‘converting’ Wilder’s PROPER AND CORRECTLY CALCULATED ADX (Average Directional Index) into an ‘oscillator form’. I cannot even take credit for having the idea because someone actually posted an ADX in ‘oscillator form’ for MetaTrader on the ‘New Concepts’ thread and this is what sparked the idea. (I DO question the validity of that particular MetaTrader ADX Oscillator that was posted because from just looking at the code it’s NOT following Wilder’s calculations or smoothing methods and it’s not giving all the signals that you would get from ADX). I went through all of the different pairs to see the results and I was really shocked to see that with 90% of the pairs available to me for trading: this ADX Oscillator was ‘good’ for TENS OF THOUSANDS of pips over the past few months. People have lost money ‘left right and center’ on the Dow (including myself) over the past few months (trying to ‘call the bottom’ which ironically is what I TRIED to use ‘The Delta Phenomenon’ for). Had a person been using this ADX Oscillator: you’d not have lost even one single US cent!!! And ALL my ADX Oscillator is: Wilder’s 'stock standard as per ‘the book’ ADX indicator which forms part of his Directional Movement System or ‘DMS’. I picked three pairs to demonstrate (GBP/JPY, EUR/JPY, and USD/SEK and I’ve posted the charts on the ‘New Concepts’ thread) and JUST THOSE THREE, (and there are MANY MORE examples), using my ADX Oscillator i.e. Wilder’s ADX, your pip count COULD have been 35 702 and it was ‘good’ for 2 684 Dow points over this same period!!!

Now I’m NOT ‘punting’ my ADX Oscillator because, as I said, all it is is Wilder’s ADX being ‘presented’ in a different form.

The point of this message is this:

And it is a SHAMEFUL point to be making:

My son, who is now nine years old, or my daughter, who has just turned twelve, and who are both highly computer literate, could have done those trades!!! ALL those trades involved was placing stop orders at certain places when signalled to do so and THIS you only had to do over the course of this period a maximum of three, maybe four, times!!! That’s ALL that was required.

Now I’m not saying that’s ALL that’s needed to make money in this business. I mean: money management and stuff like that I don’t think I’d be able to explain to my children (well it would not mean anything to them let me put it that way) BUT I DO KNOW that they could have done those trades PURELY MECHANICALLY and those pips / points would have been the end result as of Friday nights close last week.

The reason this is an absolute CRYING shame is because I WAS NOT IN THOSE TRADES AND DID NOT SEE THEM COMING and there was NO excuse for this. No: I did not have ADX presented to me in ‘oscillator form’ at the time BUT I’ve had ‘New Concepts’ for well over eighteen months now and I believe I could recite the information in ‘the book’ BACKWARDS if called upon to do so. I should have seen those ADX / DMS trades coming using ADX / DMS without question. But I did not. Why? Because I just KNOW at the time that I was too busy TRADING!!! Sound strange??? It IS strange. But it’s true. The reason why letting my children do those trades would have worked is this: they would have BLINDLY, on my instructions as to what to look for, placed the orders, and then forgotten about them until they were required to place other orders from time to time when again signalled to do so. They would not have questioned the signals or tried to finesse the entries or determine that market direction or anything like that. Do you see my point here? The reason this business is so difficult is BECAUSE we (well I do anyway) add SOOOO much into the ‘mix’ until, at the end of the day, we can no longer ‘see the wood for the trees’. Don’t get me wrong: I think I’d have one HELL of time explaining ‘The Delta Phenomenon’ to them BUT I think of candlestick trading for instance. I’m almost sure that if I spent a whole lot of time showing them the most popular / basic patterns they would do better than I would AGAIN: simply because they would follow the patterns without question.

Now I’ll admit that MOST pairs have been trending strongly in one direction or another over the past few months and that made the above trades very easy. Having said THAT though: if you’d have asked me about this last week I’d have told you that the market has no direction and is ‘jumping around’. How many people do you think have not noticed that most of the pairs have been trending for the past few months???

Yes: there were times when the pairs were trading in a range before the now OBVIOUS trends and this would have made things more ‘tricky’ and maybe required a bit more skill BUT EVEN IF you just kept trading the ‘basic’ ADX / DMS system you’d have made at LEAST half of the pips I’ve quoted (you’d have gotten ‘chopped up’ during the ranging periods).

I know this is probably going to be seen as a very controversial post. I’m not trying to ‘belittle’ the many hours and years of work that successful traders have put into this business (I know I’ve done my fair share given the length of time I’ve been trading). But it scares me that after ALL this: when you ‘strip away’ the complications that we as human beings feel compelled to ‘throw in’ all of the time, it would certainly appear that in this business we really can be ‘our own worst enemies’. THAT is why it’s so difficult to make money. Take out ‘the human factor’ and it’s not that difficult!!!

I’ve know I’ve only ‘honed in’ on Wilder’s ADX / DMS here but the above would hold true for ANY of his trading systems although admittedly a little bit more insight and skill MAY have been required BUT ALL of them would have made fortunes if just followed blindly.

(Needless to say: I’ve placed ADX / DMS orders tonight MOST of which have already been executed while I’ve been typing this post and MOST of which are aleady in profit)!!!

Someone coined the phrase: ‘Analysis Paralysis’ on my ‘old’ thread (Parabolic SAR - that’s all!!!). BE CAREFUL of it!!! It CAN ‘bring you down’!!!



(Now that I’ve TOTALLY ‘messed up your thread’):


Anyone who knows where to get historical data from anything; stocks, indices, commodities, forex, anything!, give sverigesson a shout.


That’s odd!!!

While I was typing up the above ‘thesis’ it would seem that mp6140 ‘got in’ before me and made my point in ten sentences (or less)!!!





MP: Again, thanks for the advice.

Dale: You too. Trust me, once I’ve learned something, I’m very capable of following it mechanically. University physics and economics is equal parts “being clever” and" going through the “goshdarn steps”. Seems like you guys have done a lot of the being clever already (though no system, theory or equation is ever truly perfected). Reading through some of this stuff (only 47 pages to go!), I dearly wish I would have been around back then, as I have had some of the same concerns about Wilder’s slightly “unpolished” methods in the book. I really would’ve liked to have exercised my brain against these problems with you, but hopefully there is still more work to be done (as I’m positive there is).

As regards the DOW, and this thread… I am especially interested in doing Delta P. (I’m tired of typing out phenomenon) analysis as pertains to the recent financial worries in the US. Even though I don’t have the data yet, and can’t tell what part of the SLTD cycle it should be, it seems that the SLTD has potential downturns that coincide with the great depression and the depression of 1987… and though his book was published a while ago, I imagine he would have predicted some kind of recession beginning in 2006/07, just by extrapolating his method. Now it remains to be seen if this holds under the SLTD, LTD and other Delta timeframes, but it is interesting to think about nonetheless.

Also, Dale, thanks for the shoutout for data. I’m sure a request from holds much more weight than a “newbie” like me. :smiley:

Secondly, Dale, I’m so glad that I at least have someone to discuss the Delta P. with! You’re always welcome here.

Happy Pips,
Son of Sweden


How much data are you looking for???

I found this link by simply using Google and searching for ‘historical quotes download yahoo’:

Yahoo & Google Historical Quotes Downloader - Free software downloads and reviews - CNET

Someone else also mentioned earlier that this data is free from Yahoo Finance so I found this link as well:

Historical Quotes - Finance

I’ve not opened ‘The Delta Phenomenon’ for a while but if I remember correctly this should be MORE than enough data to solve just about any term of Delta (unless of course you’re wanting to do as Wilder did and start in the early 1900’s or so in which case I think you’re probably going to have to pay for that information).

Unfortuantely: it would appear that the data is in ASCII (text) format so if you’re wanting to have charts plotted using a trading plaform (MT4 for instance) you MAY have have the formats converted so that MT4 (for example) can product charts. Of course: if you’re an ‘Excel fundi’ then you SHOULD be able to produce bar charts just by using Excel.


Dale. (


Yeh yeh!!! You ‘got me going’ so I ‘hauled out’ ‘the book’. You’re right: going back to 1970 is not enough data for SLTD. Sorry about that. I’ll leave the links that I posted above though i.e. maybe it (the post) will save someone else some time in the future.


Thanks for the links, I’ll try and get to them in the next day or so. Hopefully they’ll be useful, eh?

Truth be told, I would get right down to it, but right now I’m concentrating on getting through your thread and learning more of the systems from “the book” (as you call it). I don’t want to jump the gun or anything, but I’ve been graduated and unemployed for half a year and since I would like to make trading commodities and forex my “day job”, I’m really trying to cram these systems in my brain. Luckily, you and “the guys” have done a lot of the grunt work, so as long as I understand the systems per “the old man” (there I go again), and understand the tweaks you guys have made, and don’t fall into some of the potholes you’ve hit along the way, I’m pretty confident that I can join you all in successful trading.

Regardless, all this basically means that “New Concepts” is the bread and butter (and meat and potatoes) for me, and Delta P. is more like a side project that I’ll be developing once I get the “New Concepts” systems rolling. A man (and his family) has got to eat, right?

Still, anyone else with good sources of data, I’m still compiling it, so feel free to jump in!

As always, Happy Pips,
Son of Sweden


Well, I’ve gotten some good chunks of data, but since (as I’ve said on your thread) I don’t have excel on my computer right now, said data is just a bunch of text files full of seemingly random number. Well, maybe soon I’ll get around to charting them somehow. :stuck_out_tongue:

Well, if anyone else is gonna read this, perhaps someone knows where I could get the data on charts already? PDFs or image files would be ideal. Thanks in advance.

Happy Pips,
Son of Sweden


I just run across your thread while catching up with Dale’s thread and thought to throw in the data sources I’ve been using. The longest period of forex data I’ve found (= not searched for any other forex data sources) is available through MetaTrader, about 10 years, maybe too little for your purposes. Open Tools -> History Center and select the pairs and timeframes you want. I’m currently using Deltastock’s data, but that is from still shorter period of time and requires some programming.

There are also other, free tools than Excel to process spreadsheet data (at least OpenOffice), so you don’t need to spend anything on that. I suppose most charting tools have candlesticks or other financial graphs available.

Sorry, I don’t have any further exposure to the Delta Phenomenon nor opinion about it except reading an introduction in their web site.



Thanks a million! I currently have a demo account with a metatrader broker, so I’ll see if I can get some data from it.

Also, I have gotten some data from the links that Dale posted for quite a few forex pairs, commodities, and most of the current DJIA stocks. However, still looking for data in pdf format or image files. (I know they have to be out there!)

Unfortunately, I’ve been using OpenOffice for a while, and it just seems to hate my computer. Maybe I’ll try it again (could have just been my old version, or something), but I’m not sure I’ll have much luck.

Just a question for you guys who know excel pretty well (I used to, but it’s been a couple years since I’ve seriously used it–middle of my university years, I reckon, after that we mostly used advanced math and statistics programs :()… Once you’ve charted some data in Excel (and yes, I know of its candlestick charting abilities, thankfully), can you take that chart and export it to say, a jpeg or pdf format? This would be immensely helpful in organizing and printing out the charts for me.

Once again, thanks for humoring me, everyone. J and Dale, don’t be strangers!

Happy Pips,
Son of Sweden