Like I mentioned earlier, the SP500 index always has a move of some kind even on a holiday 
Three consecutive closes just above the high of last week (Friday) on the 1H chart was enough to suggest a buy day trade. And the next hour gave us it!
A quick trade, a nice start to a new week. Done for the day.
A trader’s life, like any other needs to find balance and harmony amongst all the different elements. Too much attention to trading is detrimental to something else in life.
Balance and harmony…
Hi Sovos,
Can I ask you again about a small demo trade I took earlier on today Monday and I have your settings on my chart with emas and rsi the same or similar I think just to forward test it for myself and see where this might go.
So the question is where I have sold (little red arrow hopefully you can see it) after price went up to pre week close and then formed a little rejection candle (pinbar) would you have traded something similar to this? I sold there and set a TP for something a little more than 1:1 RR. My SL was just above the 56 ema and the TP was set to near this mornings low.
I know as you say one has to use a little discretion and your discretion and my discretion could be completely different but it made sense to me at that time. However the small risk reward is something that I find difficult to get my head around because normally my win rate is poor.
Do you ever let trades run?
J
Hi J!
Nice! Yes, that is precisely where I would have entered for a short trade - at the close of the 10:00 candle your time, around 1,0930.
As you say, it had risen to the edge of the slow ribbon and up to the prev. week close and then quickly fallen away and closed back just below the fast ribbon. The key emphasis here is not just that it happened to be on one side of the ribbon, but the fact that it had pulled back into the ribbon and re-emerged. I.e. not just a static position, but a dynamic move. And, indeed, the RSI was also confirming an existing overall negative bias. For me, this was indeed a classic set-up! 
As a target, I would normally think in terms of around 20-25 pips on 1H forex and that would mean in the region of 1,0905-10. In this case, looking left on the chart, back to last week, I would have selected the close/open level of those two long candles on 10.10 at 17-18:00 your time, around 1,0906.
We actually hit that level in four consecutive hourly candles later!!! Which tends to show that we are doing precisely what a lot of others are also doing!
You are right that these kinds of day trades will not get anywhere with a low win rate. My win rate is usually in the 70-80% range.
I don’t personally hold trades for very long for two reasons, 1) I find it too difficult to relax with open positions, I keep looking at them all the time! It is a personality thing and I don’t fight it and 2) I have my savings in various mutual funds etc which are my long term investments anyway. For example, in the current global climate, where a lot of countries are investing heavily in defence equipment, I have put funds into a mutual fund specialising in that sector - and it is doing ok (so far). And the strange thing is, I don’t think about these funds at all in the same way as these CFD trades.
So trading for me is a different topic to investing and therefore I mainly focus on day trades and usually close out at EOD whatever the situation unless the outlook looks sufficiently favourable to consider leaving it open - and never over a weekend.
Another factor, that I have talked about in several places is the question:
“Is it easier to earn 10 pips with 10 lots or 100 pips with 1 lot”? Again, this is a personal issue for any trader depending on their own strategies, etc No right or wrong answer.
But for me, with my character and strategy, I prefer the “10 pips with 10 lots”. I mean that in a metaphorical sense, of course, not literally. I.e. I prefer a bigger position for a smaller distance than holding a smaller position in the hopes of a bigger gain.
BTW My chart set-up is very slightly different for SP500 reflecting its different character. Instead of 14-20-56-80, it is 14-28-56-80. It more a clarity issue than anything radical. But the selection is not really so very important, they are just numbers. The key function is a duality of ribbons highlighting the recent price pressures relative to the underlying current direction. (That probably sounds very gobbledegook!!! 
)
Anyway, congrats on the trade! 
The SP500 index had a surprisingly good day, yesterday, holding above last week’s achievements and even steadily moving even higher - and on a National Holiday.
I am not sure of any specific reason other than maybe some reports of increasing allegiance to Trump in the polls. Is that good news? I don’t know. Anyway, the move was in line with the chart’s bias and that is all that counts.
I am not anticipating much movement today, either, due to a lack of fresh data, but let’s see what turns up…
Trump is not a great fan of spending money on climate change and I guess for the next four years at least there is not likely to be any great calamitous climate crisis, except maybe even worse hurricanes every autumn?
But the signs, symptoms and consequences of climate change, whatever the reasons, are progressively more noticeable.
Up here in the Nordic area, we are used to seeing the forests covered in young spruce and pines like this one:
But I have never seen before so many of these trees gradually infiltrating the forests, surviving months of thick snow cover and frozen ground in the winters. The mighty British oak might be finally catching up with me, but it looks somehow so out-of-place!
One thing about nature is that once it decides to change something, it is almost impossible to get in its way…
I don’t know. I don’t worry a lot about that honestly. We’re small peanuts compared to the size they’re trading, so I don’t think we’re on their radar anyway.
They’re gonna do what they wanna do, regardless of what me and you putting out there.
That’s a good tip.
The index provided a classic technical pullback yesterday to touch the previous week’s close, bounced off and returned to the last week’s high, which is where we are now.
A pullback, yes - but time to re-enter longs? I am not so sure about that in the current political climate…
The election build-up in the US is hotting up fast and postal voting has already started there. Pre-election voting is very popular in the US (and elsewhere nowadays) and that means every day is a voting day from now on up to the actual election day - and that won’t go unnoticed by the party machines!!
So I am inclined to suspect the next three weeks are not a good trading period for anything USD_based, including currency pairs. Erratic volatility is a killer when trading markets on near-term timeframes.
I suspect XAU(USD) might however be an exception here with so much crisis and unrest and unpredictability geopolitically at present. E.g. The US sending new missile defences (THAAD) to Israel, together with US soldiers to operate it, in other words, as they say, US boots on the ground in Israel.
NATO carrying out nuclear war practices
Also, China and Russia openly agreeing to expand mutual military cooperation as part of a growing polarisation of world power order.
And North Korea breaking off all relations and physical connections with South Korea as well as declaring an end to any intentions to unify the peninsular. In addition, focussing on its nuclear weapons potential
And the Israel-Iran situation could potentially spiral into major repercussions globally, including energy prices.
Although gold is perhaps best-known as a hedge against inflation, it is also a safe-haven in times of strife. Inflation may be under control, but the rest of it?
Winter is fast approaching, snowfalls already in the north. Will this be a winter of beauty - white snows, blue skies, and bright sparkling frosts in the sunlight? Or something far more sinister and permanent?
The early signs of both alternatives are already here…
Nice buy trade on Gold today as it started off up from last week’s highs. Missed my target by 4 pips but still got out at a good price - an 8-hour trade.
It’s dropped back now, so waiting for the next “power move”. I like this type of short-thrust moves.
But, then, this is not a trading thread…everything should be in its own place, like the blue monkey, it shouldn’t be climbing trees in our forest…
Are you saying because xau/eur is staying more bullish that it is good for xau/usd or am I picking you up completely wrong?
I’m saying what my chart is saying, that’s how I trade
My bad, I only trade the following day after the zero line was broken on 1hr chart, so that would be today, I’m no longer In either trade.
There is a possibility the trend can continue up, but I’m not there to stick around, I have seen it do an extreme reverse, so I get out ahead of time, hope this helps
Hi @SmallPaul Good to see you here!
I see you set your Fib indicator on to Mon’s High/low? Does that remain for the entire week or do you readjust it if and when a new high/low is made during the week?
It is interesting to see both XAUUSD and XAUEUR. It shows that it is also worth consulting the EURUSD chart before deciding which to trade.
I haven’t traded gold very regularly, I find it a bit mystical, shrouded in history and secrecy, and moved by interests unseen, unknown. Halloween is sneaking up on us and tomorrow is the full moon - for me, gold has a certain affinity with the spirit of this season… 
It’s called an edge in the markets. this edge often goes away within 10-15 years, but sometimes it doesn’t
As far as selling services, most of these Trading YouTubers get many requests from their subscribers. Once people see or believe those traders are doing well, they are willing to pay anything that they think will make them successful as soon as possible, so why not make some extra money on the side, you never know when you’ll lose your edge in the markets.
Also, trading youtubers or social media traders can be scammers, making most of their money from the public, not from the markets.
I am not very good at reading other people’s charts. I don’t see a red or a green line on any of these charts?
Are they your manual inputs or produced by some kind of app?
Looking at the calendar for today, we have some interesting and important releases.
The ECB rate decision and press conference and the US initial jobless claims and retail sales.
These should provide some momentum to the markets concerned and probably a little bit of price jiggling beforehand as traders adjust their positions/exposures.
Apart from the UK retail sales tomorrow, today’s data may take us into the weekend if there are any significant differences to expectations.
The US elections are one day nearer and not much change in the rankings. But maybe the rhetoric is getting a little more acidic and personal? But have the majority of the public already made up their minds? Perhaps the skill from now on is less to do with changing existing opinions and more to do with galvanising those people to vote who otherwise wouldn’t bother?
It’s surely a very tactical situation in these last few weeks. And some might even argue that it is a continuing tactical situation even after the voting to ensure the results “say the right thing”!
I deleted the chart but there was a bright wide geen line on the chart that showed the Support.
EDIT: I will delete the chart in a few hours.
An app that auto adjusts itself.
Ok, yes, I did see those green bands. I assumed they were S/F bands/areas/zones, or whatever else these are called.
I was looking for red/green lines!
Just terminology! 
As anticipated, Gold continues to build its strength. Uncertainty in financial markets and the impact of the US political elections in a few weeks, combined with the dreadful geopolitical risks associated with the Middle East and Ukraine, all create an environment where gold is seen as a safe-haven.
All this, apparently in spite of a double top on a 15 min chart predicting a collapse in the market " down to oblivion"!
Well, in my opinion, if someone watches a 15 min chart then their analysis and extrapolation should remain related to the same timespan, i.e. the next few hours, and not into the next days, and even weeks, with doom and gloom prophecies! But that’s just my thoughts. The years keep on accumulating and, clearly, I am in no way on the same wavelength, or even the same planet, as today’s retail traders. And with that thought, it is time to end this thread and move on…
That is a pity Sovos, I was enjoying your daily updates and pictures and I appreciate what you gave so far. It was good luck you started it because you gave me a clearer picture on how to approach trading.
There is a lot noise on the threads with predictions and the like ([quote=“Double top formed on gold, post:1, topic:1260391”]
Double top formed on gold on 15 min chart - this could be it boom
[/quote]) but there is a lot of interesting opinions also
Cheers John
You already know 
