DragonShot Trend-Following Trading Journal

[AlbertFMF]

Hi traders,

I already said hi here but a quick introduction might be good.

I’m a full-time trader, trading from home for the past 5 years now.

I have developed my own trading strategy that I call DragonShot. The name comes from the “Dragon” moving average band that forms the core of the system.

It’s one of the most successful trend-following systems I know of. It’s based on statistical analysis, identifying only the highest probability continuation patterns in trending markets. I use a multi-timeframe approach, identifying trend and momentum on higher timeframes and finding the perfect place on lower timeframes to join the ride.

With it being a trend-following system I use it to identify 3 types of trades:

1. Big target trend trades
2. Small target trend trades
3. Range trades

Range trades?! That’s right. I actually use it in all market conditions because it adapts dynamically to whatever is going on in the market in any given moment. Therefore I know when to expect ranging days and I trade it appropriately. I’ll expand more on this with examples later.

For all data I’ll ever present here, know that I use a rolling 2-year data set. That simply means I have a trading journal with thousands of trades logged over many years. And when I mention a specific statistic it is based on the past 2 years of data from the time of writing, therefore rolling 2-year period.

By the way, this also helps me stay on top of changing markets. Sometimes the results of the 3 setups change where the edge goes a little up or down depending on fundamental changes in market participation, volatility and predictability - the current Coronavirus epidemic being a prime example. This helps me to immediately see when I should adjust my risk on one or more of the types of trades. In volatile markets I increase my risk on the trending trades, while I decrease risk on them during non-volatile and indecisive markets and then increase my risk on the ranging trades.

Here are some of DragonShot’s statistics for number 1, the big target trades, if your a stats geek like me

Win rate: 84.21%
Profit factor: 7.33
Expectancy: 1.01
Drawdown: 13.08%
Average trades per month: 8

I think that’s it for introductions. Let me show you the trades we took this past week.

Disclaimer

• YES, I have a paid for trade signaling service. If that’s something that interests you, contact me via my website or TradingView but please keep it off of this site. Babypips is not the place for commercial content, so let’s not bring it up again please.
• NO, I don’t plan on explaining my system or selling my system anytime in the near future.

Rather, I provide:

• For you to look over my shoulder while I trade.
• Insights into the way I look and think about the market and trading in general.
• Risk and money management.
• Active trade management.
• Transparency for all my trades, including profits and losses.
• Alerts of myself entering trades that you can use as confirmation for the same kind of trade you were thinking of taking.

If that doesn’t interest you, you shouldn’t read any further.

If it does, it’s because you are serious about trading and understand that the system is only part of greater success. The holy grail is YOU, not your system.

[AlbertFMF]

Here was our first trade of the week. The trade was entered on 1 June 2020 and was a EURCAD buy.

The trade had a 1.35 reward to risk ratio.
It had a 90.91% statistical probability of being a winner, so this is the type of trade you can take with full confidence!

…and then of course the market reminds us that we trade the probabilities, not any particular trade, because it immediately did this:

Even with such overwhelming odds, there is a very important lessons for everyone here.

You NEVER know what the result of the next trade will be.
Also, you should NEVER be too invested in any one particular trade!

Case in point, this trade only had a 9.09% chance of being a loser… but that is still not 100%! And here we witnessed that exact trade making up the 9.09% of losers.

I took the loss and didn’t identify anything good for the rest of the day, so shrugged it off and focused on the next day.

[AlbertFMF]

On Tuesday, 02 June 2020, I identified our next setup - a sell on GBPAUD.

This is exactly what I look for in a pullback. A nice clean pullback to a previous are of support that was broken and now retested as resistance, while higher timeframe momentum is bearish.

This trade didn’t wait around and just shot to our profit target without looking back.

This trade netted us a cool +134 pips, more than making up for the previous day’s EURCAD loss.

[AlbertFMF]

Right at the same time I saw another trade. This time it was a short on the EURNZD.

This was such a beautiful and clean setup. Nothing fancy, just a very obvious support zone that was broken and now retested and held as resistance.

The statistical probability for this trade was 78.57% and within my parameters to take because I was expecting us to test the lows and beyond. Here’s what happened next:

Man I love this system.

That was a nice +171 pip move, all done and wrapped up in one day of trading.

It doesn’t always move like this, but when it does you know you not only identified the resistance zone correctly, but also timed it in line with the institutional traders.

[AlbertFMF]

Sidebar: No, none of these trades are “after the fact”. I posted every single one of them on another site the moment I took them for complete transparency. I’m just new to Babypips and plan on doing the same here from Monday if anyone is interested?

P.S. “Other site?” I’m sure you can find it if you dig a little… go browsing on my profile

[AlbertFMF]

Our second last trade for the week came a bit later on Tuesday as well, a GBPCAD sell.

Here is how it played out:

And this is what I mean when I say I dynamically assess price action moment to moment. Price started moving wrong with the big bullish candle and I closed the trade right there, taking a smaller loss than the full position I risked…

…and I timed it right, because shortly after the market shot up and would have taken me out for a full loss.

Now I have to add a disclaimer: newbies, please rather just stick to your plan. Start with set-and-forget trades. Dynamic management of trades are ONLY for you when you are a lot more experienced and can trust yourself that you’re not exiting a trade because you are afraid of taking a loss, but rather because you know that statistically this has happened before and the odds are now against you.

Until you can analyze a trade factually like that, just stick to your initial stop loss! You’ll do much better if you do.

In the end, out for -25.6 pips.

[AlbertFMF]

Our last trade for the week came on Thursday, 04 June 2020.

It was a sell on the USDCHF. Here’s how it looked when we entered the trade.

Because we were technically inside a larger range I targeted a smaller trend target.
The trade had a 84.21% win probability.

Here’s what happened next:

Price made a massive drop and never looked back.

Out of the 60+ pip move I only took 11 pips. Why? Did I leave money on the table? The answer is no. The probability for a smaller move was the highest in this particular market structure and that’s what I traded. Could price have dropped a thousand pips? Sure, why not. But trading this setup over and over again I’ll always come out in front over a month of trading, because it might drop like this once but will stop you out the other 9 / 10 times if you just held on for a massive home run trade.

This ended our week with a very nice +239.9 pips in profit.

I hope this is insightful so far.

Trade safe!

[dushimes]

What is the system? Are you selling something?

What are the steps n your system?

Perhaps a video would explain it better?

Or explain each step with a picture?

I see the results, but please explain the steps in your system.

[dushimes]

I saw on followmyfx.com it’s $50/, $98/3 months, and $200/6 months.

Is that what you’re selling? A subscription?

[dushimes]

I notice you show your results and how successful your system is, but never explain the steps.

Is that why? You explain everything to subscribers, or do they only receive buy/sell emails telling them what to do, and you don’t explain why?

I’m confused. Sorry. Could you explain what this is?

[AlbertFMF]

Hi again, thanks for the questions!

I just updated my first post with a disclaimer explaining all of this. I prefer us not making this thread about any commercial content please. Again, please read the disclaimer or otherwise you’re welcome to contact me personally, just not here.

Thanks!

[dushimes]

@AlbertFMF

I prefer us not making this thread about any commercial content

But isn’t that what this is? I’m sorry. I don’t understand.
Could you explain, maybe?

[AlbertFMF]

I replied to your DM, thanks

[dushimes]

Ok!! Thanks!

[FOREXunlimited]

@AlbertFMF

It was a sell on the USDCHF.

Albert, can you post your brokerage software screenshot with entry/exit prices for this trade?