Man, it’s been aaages since I’ve been on Babypips. It feels like a lifetime has passed and in many ways it has. Things have dramatically changes since I hung around here 10+ years ago, most notably my trading.
I’ve been trading professionally now for 5 years and I think it’s time that I connect with the bigger trading community again. In many ways I feel like I’ve been a hermit in my trading cave for too long now - it’s honestly getting lonely!
Looking forward to sharing my knowledge with beginners. I remember what it was like to be a beginner and I hope I can help you to navigate the rocky shores of a beginner trader’s career.
I’ve been trading all the majors and minors for the past 5 years (EUR, GBP, USD, JPY, CHF, AUD, NZD), with a dash of commodities and even a bit of crypto here and there. But looking at my stats now, 93% of my trades are FX.
I trade my own proprietary system. It’s called DragonShot and it’s primarily a trend-following system, although it’s very dynamic and can be used during ranging markets as well. Trend trading does make up the bulk of it though.
Same question - what do you trade and what’s your strategy?
Welcome back, I know the feeling , hence why I amuse myself with a youtube channel as spend hours in front of the screen. Nice to see a fellow full time trader , see you around the forum
What specifically does the system do? What is a common trigger for you to get into (and out of) a trade?
What makes it dynamic if it’s primarily trend following?
I trade equities and derivatives only (FX through Forex.com sometimes).
Portfolio is 70% passive (ETFs, mutual funds), 30% active (primarily selling calls, occasionally puts, equity and ETF short/med term positions).
Passive side is macro trend following balanced with corp IG bonds.
Active side- I look to sell calls against short/med term equity positions when IV is high. Buy puts when I want a synthetic short. Swing trade individual stocks and ETFs based on very simple price action (20 ema, S/R zones, stochastics, and chart patterns).
Hello Albert! Welcome baaack! Haha. I didn’t even know Babypips has existed 10+ years ago but it’s really exciting to see another experienced trader here. Do you plan on creating a journal or something? I’m sure that’d be interesting. Welcome again!
That’s a great idea - I’m going to create a journal now and I’ll add the 5 trades I took the past week with the results. Maybe it can be useful to traders wanting to “look over my shoulder” while I trade.
I use a multi-timeframe approach, identifying higher timeframe momentum using a custom MACD setup together with market structure and support and resistance. I then take it down to lower levels where I enter on:
Areas of multiple confluence of lower and higher timeframe support,
Levels with an 80%+ chance of holding as support or resistance due to heavy order flow in that area.
My final entry is determined by price action or if it doesn’t print a good candle I also look at RSI.
I use support and resistance zones, pivots, COT data, MACD, RSI and then a specific moving average setup that is the trump card in my opinion.
Trades last between 2 and 48 hours depending on market volatility, very high profit factor, extremely low risk of ruin, trade expectancy ALWAYS above 0.5.
Man let me tell you, I am very satisfied with my trading strategy but even if I give it to some traders they’ll still find a way to lose with it, despite the odds being overwhelmingly in their favour to win 80% of the time with amazing profit factor and very low drawdown and risk of ruin.
What I’m trying to say is that yes, I have a great system, but it’s only part of the equation.
In my opinion the holy grail is the trader behind the system, the one that actually puts on the trade. He or she alone determines the outcome of trades over a long enough period of time.
You have to BE a trader in your bones, understand your system but more importantly yourself better than anything - THEN you have the makings of a wildly successful trading career on your hands!
Mmmmm I would be interested in how @AlbertFMF comes up with those figures.
Personally I am a believer in that most setups have at least a 50/50 chance and the best any trader can expect is maybe 60/40 chance.
The reason being is because someone has to take the other side to your trade. Tell me why would someone take a trade when they only had a 10% to 20% chance of making money. Given that there are a lot of smart traders out there, the answer would be no one.
I get these figures from data of the same exact setup over a 2-year rolling period of data.
So in short it’s the outcome of similar trades over the last 2 years. Simple as that. This way I know what the probability is before I enter a trade.
Let me ask you this, which is something I realized a long time ago: how many people have logged every single trade they have taken for the last 5 years to do statistical analysis on it?
Exactly
That’s why I strongly recommend you do that because you quickly gain insights you would never have had before. You realize exactly what you’ve said now - that you’ve been taking trades that you THINK is good but when you actually analyze it over a big sample set you realize it’s quite the opposite.
Welcome baaack! Haha. 