How do you identify an 80% chance vs. a 90% chance vs. a 30% chance?
How do you define heavy order flow?
How do you identify heavy order flow?
Mmmmm I would be interested in how @AlbertFMF comes up with those figures.
Personally I am a believer in that most setups have at least a 50/50 chance and the best any trader can expect is maybe 60/40 chance.
The reason being is because someone has to take the other side to your trade. Tell me why would someone take a trade when they only had a 10% to 20% chance of making money. Given that there are a lot of smart traders out there, the answer would be no one.
Just my 2 pips worth.
Cheers
Blackduck
1 Like
He’s here to get subscribers for his paid signal service. He’ll entertain the more experienced traders, but he’s mostly here for the newbies.
Hi again,
I get these figures from data of the same exact setup over a 2-year rolling period of data.
So in short it’s the outcome of similar trades over the last 2 years. Simple as that. This way I know what the probability is before I enter a trade.
Let me ask you this, which is something I realized a long time ago: how many people have logged every single trade they have taken for the last 5 years to do statistical analysis on it?
Exactly 
That’s why I strongly recommend you do that because you quickly gain insights you would never have had before. You realize exactly what you’ve said now - that you’ve been taking trades that you THINK is good but when you actually analyze it over a big sample set you realize it’s quite the opposite.
Good luck!
I do have a signaling service yes, but you won’t hear me bringing that up once. Unless you do. But thanks for the free advertising.
Now how about we get back to trading and helping?
I was referring to TradingView, not my site. Let’s not be hostile man, it’s not the vibe of this place. I’m here to help, meet traders and share knowledge. I know the house rules, so let’s just move on. We can use this energy much better. But please let me know if I break any of the house rules. Thanks.
I’m just saying, you may appear to be helping here, but go to your site and you offer everything BP warns traders about.
You’re absolutely right. I apologize if I’m sounding hostile, just looking out for the community. We’re all here to have fun and to learn.
Best of luck to you.
1 Like
No worries, thanks for the kind words! I like it that you guys are protective about the community you care for. I’m new here (sort of) so a healthy dose of skepticism is always warrented.
Anyone having the same doubts, I suggest following my trading journal for a week or so and then making your own conclusions again 
Thanks guys!
1 Like
That would be me.
I used Notion to journal every trade with both entry screenshots exit screenshots as well as sometimes follow up screenshots. All with notes and comments. I have sinced graduated to Edgewonk which I find brilliant. Couple this with trade account keeping using TJS spreadsheets.
You don’t do this you don’t know exactly how you are tracking with your trading. Sound business practice.
Cheers
Blackduck
1 Like
Very nice!
Traders have no idea how much of a bigger picture they’re missing if they don’t do this. I haven’t seen Edgewonk before, looks interesting. Thanks for sharing!
Happy trading.
Cheers
Blackduck
I have worked from home for 8 years and yes you need to make a social life for yourself, work mates are no longer there.
2 Likes
Exactly, man I love the freedom but sometimes I think I romantize how great it also was to work with other people. You tend to forget the bad times, but luckily I never had much of those during my 9-to-5 days.
Can you share 2-3 charts / recent trades you’ve made with entry/exits?
Of course! On request I started a journal thread with last week’s trades in them. Looking forward to having you there.
Saw the charts- how about the actual trades? Can you share your entry/exit prices and percentages?
I dont get lonely as I have a wife and kids but I do miss the daily interactions
1 Like