DXY, EURUSD, GBPUSD Daily Forecasts

Trading Discussion Currencies
23

2020/12/04 NFP

DXY
D1

  • Liquidity
    Above 93.20
    Below 89.00

Bias – Bearish
Resistance 91.00
Support 90.30

H1
Resistance 90.75 & 90.85
Support D1 90.30

Price is staying in a tight range before NFP. Will be interesting to see what happens. Looking for that downside liquidity. No trading today.

EURUSD
EURGBP - Note significant liquidity below 0.8860 … Long term weak EUR relative to GBP … near term, EUR is stronger

D1

  • Liquidity
    Above 1.2400
    Below 1.800

Bias – Bullish
Resistance 1.2215 (weekly level)
Support 1.2075 & 1.2000

H1
Resistance 1.2215 (weekly level)
Support 1.2140-1.2145 & 1.2020

Same as DXY … in a tight range waiting for NFP. A retrace to 1.2020 and then take out highs during NFP is not an impossibility. I like the H1 1.2080 support level better, but that would have to break market structure to get there. So not as likely to immediately return to the high.

GBPUSD
EURGBP - Note significant liquidity below 0.8860 … Long term weak EUR relative to GBP … near term, GBP is weaker

Quick update on yesterday’s forecast … price hit the H1 1.3410 support level and shot up to form a new high for the day, but just short of yesterday’s high.

D1

  • Liquidity
    Above 1.3515
    Below 1.3285

Bias – Bullish
Resistance 1.3750-1.3760
Support 1.3270

H1
Resistance 1.3442 (Weekly high) … in prep for tomorrows run
Support 1.3470 … price very close to this level now … next level is 1.3445-1.3450

Could price move sideways into NFP then hit H1 support and move higher??

24

2020/12/04 Recap

That is exactly why I do not trade NFP. Price was all over the place once news was released. However … price hit both our support and resistance forecasts on the DXY. :blush:

DXY – Neutral day. After NFP, price hit the 90.75 resistance area then dropped to form a new low on the day. Where? It closed in in a liquidity to the penny @ 90.47, just ahead of the support. From here went higher to hit the secondary resistance area at and make the high of the day at 90.85. Does not get much more accurate than this!!

EURUSD – Bearish day. Price did not quite reciprocate the DXY movement. After NFP, dropped to 1.2130 just below our support area, moved higher but did not make a new high, then dropped back down to form a new daily low at 1.2110, also just below the secondary support forecast.

GBPUSD – Bearish to neutral day. Unfortunately, did not update the H1 forecast for Friday from the previous day. However, NFP did send price higher to take the D1 liquidity at 1.3515 before dropping back down.

Today’s forecast may be delayed.

25

2020/12/07

DXY
D1

  • Liquidity
    Above 92.80
    Below 90.50 then 89.00

Bias – Bearish
Resistance 92.23
Support 90.30

H1
Resistance 90.90
Support 90.75

Still bearish on the dollar until price says something else. Looking for the liquidity below near term 90.50 and long term 89.00. An the H1, price is now approaching support at 90.75. This will be a key area for the day. If broken, price will drop to a new low on the day.

EURUSD
EURGBP - Note significant liquidity below 0.8860 … D1 shows very little resistance prior to liquidity above 0.9290. Brexit this week will push price around this week.

D1

  • Liquidity
    Above 1.2180
    Below 1.8000

Bias – Bullish
Resistance 1.2215 (weekly level)
Support 1.2000

H1
Resistance 1.2215 (weekly level)
Support 1.2130 and 1.2000
Looking for the H1 support of 1.2130 to hold and push price towards the D1 liquidity.

GBPUSD
EURGBP - Note significant liquidity below 0.8860 … D1 shows very little resistance prior to liquidity above 0.9290. Brexit this week will push price around this week.

I am staying away from the GBP this week due to the Brexit risk. No trades. I will just point out potential levels and liquidity.

D1

  • Liquidity
    Above 1.3540
    Below 1.3225

Bias – Neutral … no view
Resistance 1.3370
Support 1.3060

H1
Resistance 1.3415-1.3420
Support 1.3275

26

Last week has been great for EURUSD traders. It hit 32-month highs on Thursday. It has performed really well mainly due to dollar weakness. Let’s see what happens after the stimulus package

27

2020/12/07 recap

DXY – Neutral day although higher vs yesterday. Price dropped thought the H1 support at 90.75 then retraced up to hit resistance at 90.90 this morning and consolidate. Currently, price is moving higher.

EURUSD – Bearish day. Fell just short of the liquidity at 1.2180. With 3 days approaching that liquidity, this area is becoming a much stronger draw. H1 support area completely failed. Today, price has closed in a liquidity area at 1.2100 and started moving higher.

GBPUSD – Bearish day. Price stayed above the liquidity at 1.3225 and move up to fill in a liquidity area at 1.3400, but did not make it to the H1 resistance area … So that area is still in play today.

28

2020/12/08

DXY
D1

  • Liquidity
    Above 91.25
    Below 90.50

Bias – Neutral
Resistance 91.30
Support 89.80

H1
Resistance 91.10 (above liquidity area … good draw on price)
Support 90.65 but already hit once. After this, possibly 90.30 but focusing on D1 support instead

Overall, I am still bearish on the dollar and looking for it to continue lower toward the 2018 low at 88.00. But a potential move higher to 92.25 is very possible prior to moving lower. From an H1 view, I am looking for price to move up to the resistance at 91.10 and then move lower, possibly taking out yesterdays low.

EURUSD
EURGBP - Note significant liquidity below 0.8860 … D1 shows very little resistance prior to liquidity above 0.9290. Brexit this week will push price around this week.

D1

  • Liquidity
    Above 1.2180
    Below 1.8000

Bias – Neutral
Resistance 1.2215 (weekly level)
Support 1.2000 (close of liquidity area)

H1
Resistance 1.2215 (weekly level)
Support 1.2070-1.2080 … already hit once so less likely to hold again.

Long term bullish but not really seeing a strong support area until 1.2000. Could see 1.2115-1.2120 act as support for the day and push price to a new D1 high around 1.2140. Then watch price from there.

GBPUSD
EURGBP - Note significant liquidity below 0.8860 … D1 shows very little resistance prior to liquidity above 0.9290. Brexit this week will push price around this week.

I am staying away from the GBP this week due to the Brexit risk. No trades. I will just point out potential levels and liquidity.

D1

  • Liquidity
    Above 1.3540
    Below 1.3225

Bias – Neutral … no view
Resistance 1.3410
Support 1.3060

H1
Resistance 1.3415-1.3420
Support 1.3275

29

2020/12/08 recap

DXY – Bullish day. The high of the day came close to the H1 Resistance 91.05-91.10 then moved lower as expected. But stayed pretty much consolidated for the day.

EURUSD – Bearish to neutral day. Also consolidated like the dollar so not much movement either direction. Price did fall a bit through the H1 support area and then moved to the high of the day … about 5 pips short of forecast.

GBPUSD – Bearish day. Price stayed in between forecasted support and resistance. Not much movement, like dollar and euro.

30

2020/12/09

DXY
D1

  • Liquidity
    Above 91.25
    Below 90.50

Bias – Bearish
Resistance 91.30
Support 89.80

H1
Resistance 90.90-90.95
Support 90.60 but already hit once. After this, possibly 90.30 but focusing on D1 support instead

Overall, I am still bearish on the dollar and looking for it to continue lower toward the 2018 low at 88.00. But a potential move higher to 92.25 is very possible prior to moving lower. From an H1 view, I am looking for price to move up to the H1 resistance at 90.90 area and then lower on the day potentially taking out D1 liquidity.

EURUSD
EURGBP - Note significant liquidity below 0.8860 … D1 shows very little resistance prior to liquidity above 0.9290. Brexit this week will push price around this week.

D1

  • Liquidity
    Above 1.2180
    Below 1.2080 is small but there and then 1.8000

Bias – Bullish
Resistance 1.2215 (weekly level)
Support 1.2000 (close of liquidity area)

H1
Resistance 1.2215 (weekly level)
Support 1.2015

Long term bullish. Looking for retrace to H1 support and then higher … at least to a new high on the day of 1.2150 but possibly 10 to 20 pips higher.

GBPUSD
EURGBP - Note significant liquidity below 0.8860 … D1 shows very little resistance prior to liquidity above 0.9290. Brexit this week will push price around this week.

I am staying away from the GBP this week due to the Brexit risk. No trades. I will just point out potential levels and liquidity.

D1

  • Liquidity
    Above 1.3540
    Below 1.3225

Bias – Neutral … no view
Resistance 1.3440 … has already moved higher than this area. But this is a significant level. Watching to see if it keeps price lower or not. A move higher could see the D1 liquidity taken if it can get past 1.3475 H1 resistance also.
Support 1.3060

H1
Resistance 1.3475
Support 1.3375-1.3380

Again, staying away from this pair this week. But could see retrace into H1 support then take out D1 liquidity.

31

2020/12/09 recap

DXY – Bullish day. Definitely not what I expected for the day yesterday. Price moved through the H1 resistance but did reverse as it approached D1 resistance. Price hit the H1 liquidity draw at 91.05-91.10 and continued a bit higher. We will see if that prior liquidity draw acts as resistance today.

EURUSD – Bearish. Well, we did see price reach the forecasted high area of 1.2150, just not the way I expected. Price then reversed and took out the D1 liquidity below 1.2080 -20 and addition 20 pips. It has since moved a bit higher.

GBPUSD – Bullish day. Unfortunately, I had a typo in the H1 support. It should have been 1.3275-1.3280, which will be updated for today. The H1 resistance of 1.3475 did hold and formed the high for the day before moving day and breaking through my typo support forecast. Price did move easily through the D1 support of 1.3440, but after falling through yesterday, today saw a retrace to the support level and hold, pushing price lower today so far.

32

2020/12/10

DXY
D1

  • Liquidity
    Above 91.25
    Below 90.50

Bias – Bearish
Resistance 91.30
Support 89.80

H1
Resistance 91.60 … Liquidity above 91.25
Support 90.80-90.85

Overall, I am still bearish on the dollar and looking for it to continue lower toward the 2018 low at 88.00. But a potential move higher to 92.25 is very possible prior to moving lower.

Today though, from an H1 view, there is a liquidity area in the mid 90.90’s. Could see price move into this liquidity area and bounce off H1 support to take out the opposing liquidity at 91.25.

EURUSD
EURGBP - Note significant liquidity below 0.8860 … D1 shows little resistance prior to liquidity above 0.9290.

D1

  • Liquidity
    Above 1.2180
    Below 1.2040

Bias – Bullish
Resistance 1.2215 (weekly level)
Support 1.2000 (close of liquidity area from above) then 1.1965

H1
Resistance 1.2110 … approached once already prior to post … above this there is liquidity starting at 1.2150 with little to no resistance
Support 1.2090-1.2100

Looking for retrace to H1 support and then higher to the liquidity 1.2150 and potentially above 1.2180.

GBPUSD
EURGBP - Note significant liquidity below 0.8860 … D1 shows little resistance prior to liquidity above 0.9290.

I am staying away from the GBP this week due to the Brexit risk. No trades. I will just point out potential levels and liquidity.

D1

  • Liquidity
    Above 1.3540
    Below 1.3225

Bias – Neutral … no view
Resistance 1.3360
Support 1.3270 … already tested so could see retracement below 1.3200 before moving higher, which would correlate with liquidity.

H1
Resistance 1.3360
Support 1.3285

Again, staying away from this pair this week. Believe the low is in for the day at 1.3292.

33

EURUSD closed yesterday at the low and rallied back higher today, at 1.1980$

34

2020/12/10 recap

DXY – Bearish day. Nice bounce off that H1 support at 90.80 and shot up to 91.05 … that liquidity area turned support from Wednesday. Then immediately turned lower and took out yesterday’s low at 90.70. Presented a couple good entries on the EURUSD. Good day.

EURUSD – Bullish day. Weeee … from the time of forecast posting … bounced off H1 support at 1.2090-1.2100 and immediately sent price up to the forecasted at 1.2150. This was a partial profit area with an extended target at 1.2180. Unfortunately, only made it to 1.2160, but still in this looking for that D1 liquidity. Beautiful trade today.

GBPUSD – Bearish day. Still staying away from this one. Showing ZERO market symmetry.

35

2020/12/11

DXY
D1

  • Liquidity
    *Above 91.25
    *Below 90.50

Bias – Bearish … price is in consolidation this week
Resistance 90.90 (weak) & 91.30
Support 89.80

H1
Resistance 91.00-91.10 but weak because already hit yesterday
Support 90.65-90.70

Overall, I am still bearish on the dollar and looking for it to continue lower toward the 2018 low at 88.00. But a potential move higher to 92.25 is very possible prior to moving lower.

If price moves up to the H1 resistance, there is a fair chance that it could continue to the liquidity sitting at 91.25. Will highly depend on what time that resistance level is reached. Prior to 7am (EST), I think price will likely move higher to take the liquidity.

One scenario would be for price to retrace to H1 support near 7am and then reverse higher. As I am bearish Dollar bullish Euro, I would not trade this.

Better scenario would be for price to hit the H1 resistance between 8am-9am and then drop down … setting up a good trade on the EURUSD.

EURUSD
D1

  • Liquidity
    Above 1.2180
    Below 1.2040

Bias – Neutral
Resistance 1.2215 (weekly level)
Support 1.2000 (close of liquidity area from above) then 1.1965

H1
Resistance 1.2140-1.2150
Support 1.2105 … but very weak … would not use this level … nothing else worthy of nothing on this time frame

DXY is really going to determine what price does here. To coordinate with the better scenario on the DXY, Price dropping to 1.2100 then rallying back towards the daily open would be ideal.

GBPUSD

I am staying away from the GBP this week due to the Brexit risk. No trades. I will just point out potential levels and liquidity.

D1

  • Liquidity
    Above 1.3540
    Below 1.3100 (yesterday’s 1.3225 already taken today)

Bias – Neutral … no view
Resistance 1.3350-1.3360
Support 1.3060

H1
Resistance 1.3255
Support 1.3130-1.3140

Again, staying away from this pair this week. If we get that rally in DXY and GBP consolidates due to EUR strength, could see a significant drop in price from here.

36

GBP/USD stays below 1.34, short a few positions today. What do you feel would be the upcoming trend?

37

Forex noob here. What pair would you recommend to bet against DXY assuming a DXY downtrend during the next 30 days on an enter and hold overnight basis? After doing some limited research I think shorting the USD/MXN pair might be a good idea, but maybe you could recommend something better.

I think your prediction of DXY falling to 88 is a good one and could easily happen within the next 30 days.

38

2020/12/11 recap

DXY – Bullish day. Once price reached the H1 resistance, it basically consolidated and moved sideways for the rest of the day. But this has left a large liquidity draw below for next week. Will definitely looking for that to be filled in.

EURUSD – Bearish day. Not the direction I was expecting for the day, but price zones still worked well. No trades for me because I was only looking for longs. However, price did reject from H1 resistance at 1.2140 and hit support at 1.2105.

GBPUSD – Bearish day. No trades on GBP but price hit the forecast levels perfectly. Dropped down into the 1.3130-1.3140 H1 support and shot up to 1.3255 resistance level … almost exactly. Potential 100+ pips. No worries. GBP was all over the place this week. This is a good sign that the market symmetry might be back after all of the Brexit issues.

39

@Silivia & @9_11_Dancing_Israelis

First, as a day trader I only focus on near term forecasts. Nothing long term. While I do see the DXY falling towards 88.00, that is only a draw for me, not a target. Meaning that I will only be looking to buy currencies vs. the dollar. This only creates my bias for a specific day.

Second, I only trade the EURUSD and GBPUSD. So I do not have daily forecasts for anything else.

Lastly, I do not bet on FX. I only do that in Las Vegas and Macau. My trades are executed based on high probabilities from experience.

Good luck to both of you. I wish you nothing but the best. :slight_smile:

40

2020/12/14

DXY
D1

  • Liquidity
    Above 91.25
    Below 90.50

Bias – Bearish … looking to break out of last weeks consolidation to the downside
Resistance 91.30
Support 89.80

H1
Resistance 90.65
Support 90.50 then 89.80

At the time of this posting, price is approaching the 90.50 area. This is a key H1/H4 support area but also a big D1 liquidity draw. My belief is that the liquidity draw will be the stronger of the two. With that thought in mind, a retrace up to 90.65 and then push down into D1 liquidity will set up some nice trades on the EUR and possibly GBP.

EURUSD
D1

  • Liquidity
    Above 1.2180
    Below 1.2040

Bias – Bullish
Resistance 1.2215 (weekly level)
Support 1.2000 (close of liquidity area from above) then 1.1965

H1
Resistance 1.2160 then 1.2215 (weekly level)
Support 1.2145-1.2150 then 1.2135

DXY is consolidating around the H1 1.2160 resistance level. This will be a key level today. If broken today, will look for price to reach for the D1 liquidity at 1.2180 plus about 10 pips. A retrace to the H1 support (also liquidity) and then bounce up to the D1 liquidity is in play today.

GBPUSD
D1

  • Liquidity
    Above 1.3540
    Below 1.3100

Bias – Bullish
Resistance 1.3470 … weak
Support 1.3325

H1
Resistance 1.3440 … current price action … next is 1.3530
Support … a few good ones today, but my favorite is 1.3355-1.3565

Already had a huge move on the GPB so not expecting much more. Also want to confirm it is indeed back in sync with market symmetry before trading. With that being said, a retrace down in to the H1 support and then back to today’s high is possible. Best case would be for price to continue to D1 liquidity. If not today, high probability this week.

41

2020/12/14 recap

DXY – Bearish day. We finally saw price take the D1 liquidity then move sharply higher. Unfortunately, price did the opposite of what I anticipated for a trade. It took the liquidity then moved up through the 90.65 and 90.80 resistance. Since then, price has consolidated between these two levels.

EURUSD – Bullish day. Literally as I posted yesterday’s forecast, price moved up through the H1 1.2160 resistance but fell short of the D1 liquidity at 1.2180. This makes that D1 liquidity draw even stronger as all the technical traders see it as support and or shorting it. Looking for institutional money to run up there and grab all their stop losses.

GBPUSD – Bullish day. Price not any where near the D1 liquidity when compared to the DXY and EURUSD, showing market symmetry weakness. Price hit the H1 resistance level near 1.3440 and reversed sharply downward, taking out the H1 support levels along the way. Once it hit D1 support at 1.3325, price moved into consolidation and remained there until about an hour ago, where we saw a drop in price to new H1 liquidity.

42

2020/12/15

DXY
D1

  • Liquidity
    Above 91.25
    Below 90.40

Bias – Bearish … looking to break out of last week’s consolidation to the downside
Resistance 91.30
Support 89.80

H1
Resistance 91.00
Support 90.55-90.60

Really like the H1 support area. However, my bias is still bearish on the dollar due to the strong liquidity draw below. Best case scenario would be for price to move up H1 resistance, fill in the gap, then move lower back towards H1 support. But honestly, the reverse could just as easily happen, and the dollar could continue in consolidation.

EURUSD
D1

  • Liquidity
    Above 1.2180
    Below 1.2040

Bias – Bullish
Resistance 1.2215 (weekly level)
Support 1.2000 (close of liquidity area from above) then 1.1965

H1
Resistance 1.2215 (weekly level)
Support 1.2145-1.2155

If the DXY will price according to plan, we could see potential in the EURUSD. I am bullish so only looking to buy this pair. Looking for support at the H1 level, preferably the lower end and then retrace back up to take out yesterday’s and last week’s high as it moves in to the D1 liquidity.

GBPUSD
D1

  • Liquidity
    Above 1.3540
    Below 1.3100

Bias – Bullish
Resistance 1.3470 … weak
Support 1.3290 … weak … strongest at the moment is 1.3060

H1
Resistance 1.3360 … price rejecting this level now. Next level at 1.3395
Support 1.3235 … low end

Not looking for price to reach down to the H1 Support low end. Possibly could bounce off high end around 1.3280, which it already did once. More likely is that if would dig into that area a little more. Could also see the 1.3325 area act as support and push price toward yesterday’s high. Still not trading this pair yet though.