DXY, EURUSD, GBPUSD Daily Forecasts

[MauMau4]

2021/01/21

NOTE: Trading in January will be limited. This is a low probability month as institutional money is slowly returning.

Keep in mind that political drama in the US will still be a factor. Rioting will potentially continue. And anything can happen on the 20th during inauguration of Biden. So please be careful with your trading and risk.

DXY
D1

• Liquidity
  Above 91.25
  Below 89.20

Bias – Bearish
Resistance 90.90 … hit twice
Support 89.95 … hit once

H1
Resistance 90.31
Support 90.00

Long term, I am still bearish on the dollar. However, still looks like we are headed higher to at least start the week. There is a weekly liquidity draw above 91.25 that reaches up to 91.75. Then there is some strong resistance around the 92.10 level.

No trading today. The H1 resistance at 90.31 held as is moving price lower towards the D1 support at 89.95. If price can move below that support, I will be targeting weekly and monthly support levels around 89.00. Note there is new resistance at H1 90.26 just below the NY midnight open at 90.30 … strong resistance area. A retrace to here and move lower is possible.

EURUSD
D1

• Liquidity
  Above 1.2350
  Below 1.2060

Bias – Bullish
Resistance 1.2185
Support 1.2109

H1
Resistance 1.2185
Support 1.2135 … just formed by the move up into H1 Liquidity/Resistance (not drawn on chart)

Long term bullish on the EURUSD. Price just hit a weekly fair value gap (liquidity) and rejected. However, I do expect price to enter this area. The EURUSD is showing weakness relative to the dollar and GBPUSD in that today broken the Dec 1st prior low while the dollar has not reached the same corresponding high and the GBPUSD is not even close to that same low.

No trading. H1 liquidity above 1.2136 has drawn price higher. Price is at the H1 resistance of 1.2140. Not expecting this level to hold. Ultimately, if price can get past that D1 resistance at 1.2151, I think it will reach for the W1 resistance at 1.2185, where I think the high of the day will come in.

GBPUSD
D1

• Liquidity
  Above 1.3790
  Below 1.3430

Bias – Bullish
Resistance 1.3760 (monthly) … Daily level at 1.3800
Support 1.3637

H1
Resistance 1.3760 (monthly)
Support 1.3683 (NY midnight open)

Long term bullish on the GBPUSD. There is a big liquidity draw just above current price. However, with the bullish dollar, I would expect the GBPUSD to consolidate or drop slightly for the week, allowing the EURUSD to move more to the downside.

No trading. The GBPUSD has moved up to form a new high, breaking through W1 resistance at 1.3712. this weekly resistance was already tested twice. So not as strong as before. Price also filled in a weekly FVG to the pip and has dropped a little. There is now a M1 resistance level at 1.3760. Very critical area for the GBPUSD. I am looking for it to break through and push towards 1.4500. But on the sidelines until a clear direction is presented.

[MauMau4]

2021/01/21 Recap

DXY – Bearish day. Price did indeed continue lower towards the D1 support as forecasted. Then we saw the retrace up to the NY midnight open where it found resistance and moved lower as we expected.

EURUSD – Bullish day. Almost to script. Price moved right through the H1 liquidity area and both H1 resistances failed to hold. Price then moved towards the W1 resistance at 1.2185. It did not reach yesterday but has reached it today and rejected so far.

GBPUSD – Bullish day. Price found resistance at H1 1.3740 and consolidate in this liquidity range for the day. Did not make it to M1 resistance as we were looking for.

[MauMau4]

2021/01/22

NOTE: Trading in January will be limited. This is a low probability month as institutional money is slowly returning.

Keep in mind that political drama in the US will still be a factor. Rioting will potentially continue. And anything can happen on the 20th during inauguration of Biden. So please be careful with your trading and risk.

DXY
D1

• Liquidity
  Above 91.25
  Below 89.20

Bias – No View
Resistance 90.90 … hit twice
Support 89.95 … hit once

H1
Resistance 90.31
Support 90.00

Long term, I am still bearish on the dollar. However, still looks like we are headed higher to at least start the week. There is a weekly liquidity draw above 91.25 that reaches up to 91.75. Then there is some strong resistance around the 92.10 level.

No trading today. Price could go either direction today so no bias. I am looking for it to at least drop down to the D1 support at 89.95. From there we will need to see what price wants to do. Still expecting a move to the downside long term. However, if price is going to move to the upside, this D1 support area is where it needs to happen. Moving below it will break market structure and for a new lower daily low.

EURUSD
D1

• Liquidity
  Above 1.2350
  Below 1.2060

Bias – No View
Resistance 1.2185
Support 1.2109

H1
Resistance 1.2185 (weekly)
Support 1.2109

Long term bullish on the EURUSD. Price just hit a weekly fair value gap (liquidity) and rejected. However, I do expect price to enter this area. The EURUSD is showing weakness relative to the dollar and GBPUSD in that today broken the Dec 1st prior low while the dollar has not reached the same corresponding high and the GBPUSD is not even close to that same low.

No trading. Price has rejected off the W1 level at 1.2185 already today. If the dollar moves lower as I expect, then we will see this pair reach for at least the H1 resistance at 1.2203. This is still within the range of the W1 resistance. If price moves lower, we will need to see a bounce of the 1.2125 D1 open price of the prior down close candle for this pair to be bullish and continue moving up. That rejection of the W1 FVG four days ago is very bullish. So I am expecting price to continue higher.

GBPUSD
D1

• Liquidity
  Above 1.3790
  Below 1.3430

Bias – No View
Resistance 1.3760 (monthly) … Daily level at 1.3800
Support 1.3637

H1
Resistance 1.3760 (monthly)
Support 1.3637 (daily)

Long term bullish on the GBPUSD. There is a big liquidity draw just above current price. However, with the bullish dollar, I would expect the GBPUSD to consolidate or drop slightly for the week, allowing the EURUSD to move more to the downside.

No trading. Price has rejected strong from the H1 1.3740 level. Because of this strong rejection, I left that level on the chart. Today I will be looking for the D1 support at 1.3637 to keep price from moving any lower. With no news drivers today, I do not expect price to reach back up to the M1 resistance at 1.3760. That will likely be a target for next week.

[MauMau4]

2021/01/22 Recap

DXY – Bullish day. Consolidation day. No significant movement other than NY midnight open supporting price multiple times.

EURUSD – Bullish day. Same as the dollar, consolidation for the day after hitting the W1 resistance at 1.2185.

GBPUSD – Bearish day. With the EURUSD in consolidation, the GBPUSD was allowed to move lower. Price reached the D1 support at 1.3637 and then moved higher for 45+ pips.

[MauMau4]

2021/01/25

NOTE: Trading in January will be limited. This is a low probability month as institutional money is slowly returning.

DXY
D1

• Liquidity
  Above 91.25
  Below 89.20

Bias – Bullish
Resistance 90.90 … hit twice
Support 89.95 … hit once

H1
Resistance 90.31
Support 90.19

On the weekly chart we have been moving relatively sideways for a few weeks now. There are two draws on price right now … above 91.25 and below 89.20. Long term, I still believe the dollar is looking to go lower. But we could still see price climb before it eventually moves lower. A retrace up to the W1 resistance at 92.13 is very possible and honestly a move I would like to see prior to a move to the downside.

Last week of no trading. Based on the weekly chart, price could go either direction. But … with todays price action so far, it looks like price wants to move higher in the short term. Today I will be looking for a retrace down to H1 support at 90.19 then a move up to H1 resistance at 90.31.

EURUSD
D1

• Liquidity
  Above 1.2350
  Below 1.2060

Bias – Bearish
Resistance 1.2185
Support 1.2151 … 1.2130 (key area explained below)

H1
Resistance 1.2168
Support 1.2129 (daily) … 1.2109

Weekly … price has bounced off the 1.2185 resistance and looks to be moving lower. Retail candlestick traders will see the last two weeks as railroad tracks and therefore a move to the high side. Smart money knows and will look to take the longs from those traders and then push price lower. With the dollar looking to go higher, I would expect the EURUSD to move down accordingly. The M1 support at 1.2010 and the W1 liquidity below 1.2060 are great draws on price and good areas to see a bounce.

Last week of no trading. On the daily, as mentioned above, price is moving lower off the W1 resistance level. A key area to watch will be the prior down close candle. If price is to move higher in the near term, that D1 candle, open at 1.2129, price will need to be supported by this candle. If this candle gives way, then I will be looking for price to move to at least the W1 FVG. On the hourly, I will be looking for price to retrace up to the H1 resistance at 1.2164 and then move down to that daily candle open at 1.2129.

GBPUSD
D1

• Liquidity
  Above 1.3750
  Below 1.3520

Bias – Bearish
Resistance 1.3760 (monthly) … Daily/Weekly level at 1.3800
Support 1.3637 … hit once

H1
Resistance 1.3760 (monthly)
Support 1.3668 … and 1.3637 (daily)

Weekly … The GBPUSD has become disconnected from the dollar and is not moving in conjunction as expected. Knowing that, it is very possible the price could move higher while the dollar moves higher and the EURUSD drops. Above price however, there is strong resistance right now … W1 resistance at 1.3800 and M1 resistance at 1.3760. I will be looking for price to reach towards these levels.

Last week of no trading. Price is at the H1 support level of 1.3668, which is a fairly week level. I will be looking for price to continue lower through this area. Ideally, a retrace up to the NY midnight open at 1.3704 first and then a move lower towards the D1 support at 1.3637 would be ideal.

[MauMau4]

2021/01/25 Recap

DXY – Bullish day. Price moved as forecast. Did not quite reach the H1 support at 91.19, but only missed by 3 pips. Then it did indeed move up to the H1 resistance at 90.31 and right through it. Price eventually found resistance at the prior D1 up close candle. This is a key are to determine which direction price will move.

EURUSD – Bearish day. Price moved as forecast. Price retraced up to the H1 resistance at 1.2164, 1 pip short, then dropped right into the D1 support we were looking for at 1.2129. As with the dollar, this is a key daily area to determine which direction price will go.

GBPUSD – Bearish day. Price also moved as forecast. Price did move up from the H1 support at 1.3668, almost reaching the NY midnight open then falling right through that same H1 support as expected.

[MauMau4]

2021/01/26

NOTE: Trading in January will be limited. This is a low probability month as institutional money is slowly returning.

DXY
D1

• Liquidity
  Above 91.25
  Below 89.20

Bias – Bullish
Resistance 90.90 … hit twice
Support 89.95 … hit once

H1
Resistance 90.68
Support 90.39

On the weekly chart we have been moving relatively sideways for a few weeks now. There are two draws on price right now … above 91.25 and below 89.20. Long term, I still believe the dollar is looking to go lower. But we could still see price climb before it eventually moves lower. A retrace up to the W1 resistance at 92.13 is very possible and honestly a move I would like to see prior to a move to the downside.

Last week of no trading. Early on today, price suggested a move to the upside. Now I am not so sure. But the H1 support at 90.39 looks like it could hold price up and push it higher towards the H1 resistance at 90.68, which I do not believe to a strong level and will therefore allow price to continue to run up to the D1 resistance at 90.90.

EURUSD
D1

• Liquidity
  Above 1.2190
  Below 1.2060

Bias – Bearish
Resistance 1.2185
Support 1.2130 (key area explained below)

H1
Resistance 1.2164
Support 1.2129 (daily) … 1.2180

Weekly … price has bounced off the 1.2185 resistance and looks to be moving lower. Retail candlestick traders will see the last two weeks as railroad tracks and therefore a move to the high side. Smart money knows and will look to take the longs from those traders and then push price lower. With the dollar looking to go higher, I would expect the EURUSD to move down accordingly. The M1 support at 1.2010 and the W1 liquidity below 1.2060 are great draws on price and good areas to see a bounce.

Last week of no trading. Price moved into D1 support and dropped to our H1 support at 1.2109 and bounced nicely. But it does look like price wants to drop again. Will be looking for a move down to 1.2180.

GBPUSD
D1

• Liquidity
  Above 1.3750
  Below 1.3520

Bias – Bearish
Resistance 1.3760 (monthly) … Daily/Weekly level at 1.3800
Support 1.3637 … hit today already … next 1.3360

H1
Resistance 1.3660
Support 1.3637 (daily)

Weekly … The GBPUSD has become disconnected from the dollar and is not moving in conjunction as expected. Knowing that, it is very possible the price could move higher while the dollar moves higher and the EURUSD drops. Above price however, there is strong resistance right now … W1 resistance at 1.3800 and M1 resistance at 1.3760. I will be looking for price to reach towards these levels.

Last week of no trading. This pair also looks like it wants to drop in price. It hit the H1 resistance at 1.3660 and is moving lower … currently sitting at the NY midnight open. Expecting price to drop and form a new low today. With the lack of major news today, I do not think price will be able to reach the H1 liquidity at 1.3560 and the subsequent support at 1.3550. But, this will ultimately be a draw and target on price today/tomorrow.

[MauMau4]

2021/01/26 Recap

DXY – Bearish day. Price did exactly opposite of my forecast almost as soon as I posted it. Again, why I do not trade in January. Plus the dollar is range bound between Daily support and resistance levels. Price moved right through two H1 supports and is moving towards the D1 support of the lower range.

EURUSD – Bullish day. The D1 support at 1.2129 and H1 support at 1.2109 held price up, moving it towards the W1 resistance at 1.2185 again.

GBPUSD – Big bullish day. Price grabbed sell stop orders below the D1 support at 1.3637 and then ran straight up to the H1 resistance at 1.3740, which sits just below the monthly resistance at 1.3670.

[MauMau4]

2021/01/27

NOTE: Trading in January will be limited. This is a low probability month as institutional money is slowly returning.

DXY
D1

• Liquidity
  Above 91.25
  Below 89.20

Bias – Bullish to flat
Resistance 90.90 … hit twice
Support 89.95 … hit once

H1
Resistance 90.68
Support 90.39

Last week of no trading. With the EURUSD at D1 support (AGAIN) and the GBPUSD at M1 resistance, I am expecting the dollar to move higher or consolidate leading into a no news day until the FOMC at end of day. The dollar has already bounced off H1 resistance at 90.41. Looking for a retrace back to NY midnight open and from there consolidation or a move higher towards the mean of daily rangebound pricing at 90.42, which is coincidently that same H1 resistance already hit.

EURUSD
D1

• Liquidity
  Above 1.2190
  Below 1.2060

Bias – Bearish to flat
Resistance 1.2185
Support 1.2130 (key area explained below)

H1
Resistance 1.2157
Support 1.2129 (daily) … 1.2109

Last week of no trading. Price has moved into the D1 support level at 1.2.129 again today, thus weakening this level even more. In conjunction with the dollar, we could see a move higher in the EURUSD to the H1 resistance and NY midnight open at 1.2157, followed by a move lower through the D1 support again.

GBPUSD
D1

• Liquidity
  Above 1.3750
  Below 1.3520

Bias – Bearish
Resistance 1.3760 (monthly) … Daily/Weekly level at 1.3800
Support 1.3637 … hit today already … next 1.3360

H1
Resistance 1.3760
Support 1.3637 (daily)

Last week of no trading. So far today, this pair has stayed above the NY midnight open in consolidation. It also reached M1 resistance at 1.3760 and moved right back to the open price. There is quite a bit of H1 liquidity below price right now. This is a big draw. If the dollar moves higher or stays consolidated, we could easily see the GBPUSD move lower to the H1 support at 1.3677.

[MauMau4]

2021/01/27 Recap

DXY – Bullish day. Forecast direction was spot on; however, price move much farther than expected. It went straight up the D1 supply at 90.90, which is the top of the range it has been bound in, and then dropped.

EURUSD – Bearish day. Again, direction was correct but much more exaggerated move than expected. Price dropped all the way down to the weekly FVG at 1.2060 and then moved higher. Hourly levels meant nothing today.

GBPUSD – Bearish day. Same as above, big move to the downside today. Price did find support at the H1 1.3677 level and then moved up to the NY midnight open, where it immediately dropped again. While I was looking for that retrace up to the NY open, it happened too late in the day for me to consider taking any action. But the level definitely worked well.

[MauMau4]

2021/01/28

NOTE: Trading in January will be limited. This is a low probability month as institutional money is slowly returning.

DXY
D1

• Liquidity
  Above 91.25
  Below 89.20

Bias – Consolidated to bearish
Resistance 90.90 … hit twice
Support 89.95 … hit once

H1
Resistance 90.90
Support 90.24

Last week of no trading. Until we break out of the consolidation, I will have to respect the D1 resistance and support levels. So today, I expect the D1 resistance at 90.90 to contain price. There is quite a bit of hourly liquidity below. Will be looking for a push up to the resistance and then retrace lower.

EURUSD
D1

• Liquidity
  Above 1.2190
  Below 1.2060

Bias – Bullish
Resistance 1.2185
Support 1.2060 (weekly FVG)

H1
Resistance 1.2146
Support 1.2068

Last week of no trading. The weekly FVG has acted very well as support for price. Just like on the dollar, will need to respect this level at 1.2060 until it is broken. Looking for the NY midnight open at 1.2094 should act as support to push price higher towards the H1 resistance at 1.2146.

GBPUSD
D1

• Liquidity
  Above 1.3750
  Below 1.3520

Bias – Bearish
Resistance 1.3760 (monthly) … Daily/Weekly level at 1.3800
Support 1.3637

H1
Resistance 1.3668
Support 1.3637 (daily)

Last week of no trading. The GBPUSD is has also been in a range for several days, with the D1 support at 1.3637 marking the lower end of the range. This level has been tapped several times but will rely on it until we see a clear failure. Note that the London and NY midnight open are the same price. This should provide strong resistance and is where price is at right now. With the EURGBP moving higher today, this is why I have a bullish outlook on the EURUSD and Bearish on the GBPUSD with the dollar staying consolidated.

[MauMau4]

2021/01/28 Recap

DXY – Bearish Day. As expected, price did make a move back to the D1 resistance and range upper limit at 90.90 then moved lower into the H1 liquidity areas.

EURUSD – Bullish day. Also as expected, price dropped right into the NY midnight open and then shot up to the H1 resistance at 1.2146. I have also included a screenshot of a beautiful trade set up that I would have taken if not we were not in January.

GBPUSD – Bullish day. The London and NY midnight open did initially hold price and pushed it back down to the D1 support. However, unexpectedly, price shot up from here, almost reaching the other side of the daily range it has been trading in.

TRADE RECAP
EURUSD
Paper only … No trading in January
M15 entry just before the London and NY midnight open confluence.
Target 1 was the prior high at 1.2125
Target 2 was the resistance and M15 liquidity fill at 1.2140
Overall about 2.5 to 1 return with a net of just over 30 pips

[MauMau4]

2021/01/29

NOTE: Last day of no trading. Next week is a new month.

DXY
D1

• Liquidity
  Above 91.25
  Below 89.20

Bias – No view
Resistance 90.90 … hit twice
Support 89.95 … hit once

H1
Resistance 90.90
Support 90.55

Last week of no trading. Price could go either way from here today. Currently sitting at H1 support of 90.55 (90.49 is the low end of this support area). Scenario one … price trades back to 90.65 to fill in a liquidity void and then move lower on the day. Scenario two … price moves higher back to the upper end of the range near the D1 resistance at 90.90.

EURUSD
D1

• Liquidity
  Above 1.2190
  Below 1.2060

Bias – No view
Resistance 1.2185
Support 1.2060 (weekly FVG)

H1
Resistance 1.2146
Support 1.2068 … potential support at 1.2121 forming now but will need to wait for further price action.

Last week of no trading. The EURUSD is same as the dollar … really does not know where it wants to go. Price could hit the H1 resistance at 1.2146 and then move lower towards the weekly FVG. Or price could push right through H1 resistance and reach for the W1 resistance at 1.2185, which is the upper end of this pairs consolidation range.

GBPUSD
D1

• Liquidity
  Above 1.3750
  Below 1.3520

Bias – Bullish
Resistance 1.3760 (monthly) … Daily/Weekly level at 1.3800
Support 1.3637

H1
Resistance 1.3760 (daily)
Support 1.3667

Last week of no trading. While the other two are not giving clues as to their direction, it looks the GBPUSD wants to move higher. This is also confirmed by the EURGBP wanting to move lower on the H1 TF. I will be looking for the NY midnight open to support price from here in an effort to push it towards the M1 resistance and range boundary at 1.3760.

[MauMau4]

2021/01/29 Recap

DXY – Flat Day. Scenario one took place. After moving through the H1 support at 90.55, price returned back to that area to close near the open.

EURUSD – Bullish day. Price did indeed hit the H1 resistance at 1.2146 and then basically consolidated the rest of the day.

GBPUSD – Bearish day. BUT … from the time of posting, GBPUSD was very bullish! The H1 support at 1.3667 contained price and pushed it 80 pips higher, almost hitting the M1 resistance at 1.3760 before falling again.

[MauMau4]

2021/02/01

NOTE: Time to start trading again. I have updated terminology in my forecast to what I actually use. Support and resistance are generic terms that mean can be determined by any number of methods. I do not use support in resistance in my trading. The updated terms you will see are:

-OB … Bearish Order Block
+OB … Bullish Order Block
FVG … Fair Value Gap
BISI … Buyside Imbalance Sellside Inefficiency
SIBI … Sellside Imbalance Buyside Inefficiency

Any others will be noted in comments.

DXY
D1

• Liquidity
  Above 91.25
  Below 89.20

Bias – No view
Closest -OB 90.90 … hit twice
Closest +OB … hit once

H1
Closest -OB 90.63
Closest +OB 90.24

Weekly … Price is still range bound between D1 OB’s at 89.95 and 90.90. Price is at the 90.90 level. We will have to watch price to see if it is rejected or if it pushes through this previously hit OB. A push higher means we will likely reach for the weekly FVG above 91.2.5. A rejection lower will have price at least return to equilibrium of the range and possible move all the way down to 89.95.

Daily … Until we see the reaction around the D1 -OB, I have no view about where price will go. But, once it decides, have potential trade setups for either direction. But we must wait to see what happens at this level first.

EURUSD
D1

• Liquidity
  Above 1.2190
  Below 1.2060

Bias – No view
Closest -OB 1.2185 (weekly)
Closest +OB 1.2060 (weekly BISI)

H1
Closest -OB 1.2123
Closest +RB 1.2068

Weekly … Last week we saw the W1 -OB at 1.2185 keep price lower. This week it looks like price will move back down towards the W1 SIBI below 1.2055.

Daily … We already have the price moving towards the weekly BISI. Price reached the H1 bullish rejection block at 1.2068 and has moved a little higher. The weekly draw outweighs the hourly rejection block. So could just be a small bounce before moving lower.

GBPUSD
D1

• Liquidity
  Above 1.3800
  Below 1.3520

Bias – No view
Closest -OB 1.3760 (monthly)
Closest +OB 1.3637 (weekly FVG)

H1
Closest -OB 1.3760 (daily)
Closest +OB 1.3705

The monthly -OB at 1.3760 has kept the GBPUSD from moving any higher. Price already moved up to the monthly bearish OB at 1.3760 today and was rejected. Still need to wait for the dollar to decided what it wants to do before determining a bias for the GBPUSD.

Daily … Once price rejected from the monthly ON, it dropped right into an hourly OB and moved back towards the NY midnight open. Looking for that dollar to move higher, but do not know. If it does, we will see the GBPUSD move towards the low end of the range it has been in.

[MauMau4]

2021/02/01 Recap

DXY – Bullish Day. Price moved right up into the D1 range limit and bearish OB at 90.90. For now, price is stalled in that area.

EURUSD – Bearish day. Big drop right into the weekly BISI that is supporting price at 1.2060. On the hourly, we initially saw a good bounce off the H1 RB at 1.2068, almost reaching the H1 SIBI. Then price moved down to that weekly area.

GBPUSD – Bearish day. Price initially reached up to close to the monthly OB at 1.3760, but then rapidly fell almost all the way through the consolidation range to the daily OB at 1.3637. Price did find support at the H1 RB of 1.3667 and consolidated from there.

[MauMau4]

2021/02/02

NOTE: I have updated terminology in my forecast to what I actually use. Support and resistance are generic terms that mean can be determined by any number of methods. I do not use support in resistance in my trading. The updated terms you will see are:

-OB … Bearish Order Block
+OB … Bullish Order Block
FVG … Fair Value Gap
BISI … Buyside Imbalance Sellside Inefficiency
SIBI … Sellside Imbalance Buyside Inefficiency

Any others will be noted in comments.

DXY
D1

• Liquidity
  Above 91.25
  Below 89.20

Bias – Bullish
-OB 90.90 … hit several times
+OB 89.95 … hit once

H1
SIBI 91.24 (Weekly)
+OB 90.97

Daily … Price has made a significant move through the D1 -OB at 90.90. Next target is the W1 FVG, starting at 90.25. We should either see an immediate rejection at that weekly level or price should run through it, reaching for the D1 -OB on the side at 91.75. I will be looking for a rejection of the weekly level and a retrace down to the H1 +OB at 90.97 and then a move up to make new highs today.

EURUSD
D1

• Liquidity
  Above 1.2190
  Below 1.2060

Bias – Bearish
-OB 1.2185 (weekly)
+OB 1.2005

H1
-MB 1.2056
+OB 1.2005 (Daily)

Daily … If you are a London trader, the retrace up into the D1 FVG at 1.2059 was a great place to enter short! With the dollar breaking higher, I am expecting the EURUSD to continue to the downside. Will be looking for a retrace to the bearish Mitigation Block (MG) at 1.2056 followed by a move to the D1 bullish OB at 1.2005.

GBPUSD
D1
Liquidity
Above 1.3800
Below 1.3520

Bias – Bearish
-OB 1.3760 (monthly)
FVG 1.3637 (weekly)

H1
Mdngt NY Open 1.3684
FVG 1.3676 (daily bottom end)

Daily … Price already tested and bounced form the H1 bullish OB at 1.3676. It then was rejected at the weekly open price and is now moving down through that H1 OB. Two scenarios I will be looking for … 1) From here, a retrace up to the NY midnight open at 1.3684 or 2) move lower from here, nearing yesterdays low, then a retrace back up to 1.3676 which could reverse and become a bearish OB if this move happens. In both scenarios, I expect price to move down the D1 FVG support at 1.3637.

[MauMau4]

2021/02/02 Recap

DXY – Bullish Day. Beautiful delivery of price right into the weekly FVG as forecast. The only bad part, didn’t see the full retrace I was looking for in order to set up my trade conditions. However, there was a nice bounce of an H1 mitigation block at 91.05 that formed after I posted the forecast. This potentially could have been used as a setup on the EURUSD or GBPUSD.

EURUSD – Bearish day. Also moved as forecast, right into the weekly BISI and almost all the way down to the D1 bullish OB at 1.2005. Because we did not get the full retrace on the dollar, we also did not get the full retrace back to the H1 mitigation block on the EURUSD before it continued moving down.

GBPUSD – Bullish to neutral day. Although slightly bullish for the day, we saw a big bearish move to downside as forecast. Scenario 1 played out … price retraced back to the NY midnight open and then bottom fell out, dropping past the D1 FVG support at 1.3637 that I was targeting. Almost a 70 pip move in total, with easy 30 and 40 pip partial targets.

Trade
GBPUSD M15

[MauMau4]

2021/02/03

NOTE: I have updated terminology in my forecast to what I actually use. Support and resistance are generic terms that mean can be determined by any number of methods. I do not use support in resistance in my trading. The updated terms you will see are:

-OB … Bearish Order Block
+OB … Bullish Order Block
FVG … Fair Value Gap
BISI … Buyside Imbalance Sellside Inefficiency
SIBI … Sellside Imbalance Buyside Inefficiency

Any others will be noted in comments.

DXY
D1

• Liquidity
  Above 91.25
  Below 90.35

Bias – Bullish
-FVG R 91.75 (weekly)
+OB 90.73

H1
SIBI 91.24 (Weekly) … in the SIBI -OB 91.60
+OB 90.97

Daily … Will be looking for the dollar to take out yesterdays high and reach for the bearish OB at 91.60. I will be looking for a retrace down the H1 FVG below 91.15 and possible the NY midnight open before reversing and reaching higher. Note that price could also reach for the H1 bullish OB at 90.97.

EURUSD
D1

• Liquidity
  Above 1.2190
  Below 1.1800

Bias – Bearish
-MB 1.2060
+OB 1.2005

H1
-MB 1.2056
+OB 1.2005 (Daily)

Daily … Expecting the EURUSD to continue lower today and at least reach into the D1 bullish OB at 1.2005. I will be looking for a retrace back up to the NY midnight open at a minimum. In conjunction with the dollar, it is also possible for the price to reach for the H1 bearish Mitigation Block at 1.2056, which lies just on the other side of a D1/H1 FVG.

GBPUSD
D1

• Liquidity
  Above 1.3800
  Below 1.3610

Bias – Bearish
-OB 1.3760 (monthly)
FVG 1.3637 (weekly)

H1
-RB 1.3702 (aligns with weekly open at 1.3705
FVG 1.3637 (daily bottom end) … +RJ 1.3615 (prior one at 1.3612)

Daily … the GBP is still range bound and now sitting at the bottom of the range. The GBP has been much stronger the EUR and stayed in consolidation while the EUR has dropped. Will the bottom give out today? The EURGBP is at a daily bullish OB right now. If that gives and moves lower, we could continue to see mild strength and consolidation on the GBPUSD while the EURUSD moves lower. Price already hit the H1 bearish Rejection block at 1.3679 and moved down. This is what I would have looked for in the NY session if it had not already happened. Not likely to repeat. Will watch to see what happens on the M15 and target the D1 1.3637 if any decent setups appear.

[MauMau4]

2021/02/03 Recap

DXY – Bullish Day. Although price did not move higher, it did drop into the H1 FVG and moved back higher again to the highs of day. This coordinated with a trade setup on the GBPUSD.

EURUSD – Bearish day. We did not get the retrace back to the NY midnight open, therefore no trades. But price did indeed drop down the D1 OB at 1.2005 to make the low of the day.

GBPUSD – Bearish day. We DID get the retrace back up to the NY midnight open! This happened in conjunction with the dollar dropping into a FVG. Targeting the D1 OB at 1.3637, as forecast, would have got you about 30 pips. Nice return, but the trade I ended up in picked up a few more.

Trade Recap
GBPUSD M15