2021/02/09
Terms used in my forecast:
-OB … Bearish Order Block
+OB … Bullish Order Block
FVG … Fair Value Gap
BISI … Buyside Imbalance Sellside Inefficiency
SIBI … Sellside Imbalance Buyside Inefficiency
Any others will be noted in comments.
DXY
D1
- Liquidity
Above 91.60
Below 90.35
Bias – Bearish
-RB 91.53
+OB 89.95
H1
-OB 90.73 (Daily bullish OB turned bearish based on price action) … NYMO at 90.76
+OB 90.24
Weekly … Last week we drove deep into the Weekly FVG and then retraced lower. In the near term, I am expecting dollar to continue higher, but could see it move down to 90.88 and fill in the price imbalance from the high two weeks ago. Afterward, I ideally would like to see the FVG completely filled in and price to reach the Weekly bearish OB at 92.13. From there I would expect the dollar to resume its downward price action. The 92.00 price level will be a key area to watch. If we get the rejection I am expecting, I will be looking for a move to take out the near-term low at 89.20.
Weekly update … We got the drop down to fill in the price imbalance yesterday. Price is now at a key area … a Daily Bullish OB at 90.73. If the OB holds, we should see price move higher as projected above. If the OB gives way, then I will be bearish on the dollar and look for the downside movement describe above.
Daily … Price has moved below the D1 OB at 90.73 and moved through the midpoint of the OB at 90.59. This has me bearish on the dollar right now. Will be looking for a retrace back up towards the NYMO and push lower towards the H1 OB’s and ultimately the D1 Bullish OB at 89.95.
EURUSD
D1
- Liquidity
Above 1.2190
Below 1.1800
Bias – Bullish
-OB 1.1285 (Weekly)
+OB 1.1960 (Weekly BISI low end)
H1
-OB 1.2123
+OB 1.2056
Weekly … Last week, price completely filled in the Weekly BISI and then moved back higher. In conjunction with the dollar, a move back down through BISI again to the Weekly bullish Mitigation Block at 1.1824, which also sits in the middle of a FVG, is what I will be looking for. This means near-term bearish on the EURUSD but ultimately my long-term is bullish and will be looking for it to move back higher and above the high 1.2350.
Weekly Update … Just like on the Dollar, price at a key level … Daily Bearish Mitigation Block at 1.2077. If the block holds like on the Dollar, the EURUSD will drop and if the Block gives way, price will rise as described above.
Daily … Price has moved above the Daily Mitigation Block. Will be looking at the midpoint of the MB at 1.2143 to see if price can continue to push through that level. Looking for a retrace down to the NYMO and then push higher towards the Weekly Bearish OB at 1.2185.
GBPUSD
D1
- Liquidity
Above 1.3760
Below 1.3565
Bias – Bullish to flat
-Bkr 1.800 (Weekly)
FVG 1.3637 … this was the lower range prior to the move down. Will look to see if it contains again.
H1
-Bkr 1.800 (Weekly)
+OB 1.3744
Weekly … The GBPUSD is sitting at its near-term high and therefore still looks stronger than the EURUSD. If the Dollar rises and the EURUSD drops, the GBPUSD could very well stay in consolidation at its current level. This would be ideal to see a breakout higher when the dollar eventually returns to a bearish stance. So near-term on the GBPUSD I am flat.
Daily … Price also pushed up into a Monthly Bearish OB at 1.3760 (Midpoint 1.3887). Right now, price is consolidation around the NYMO. It is near the Weekly Bearish Breaker at 1.3800 which could keep price in consolidation and let the EURUSD run higher if the Dollar continues to drop. Not looking for any setups today on the GBPUSD.
