DXY, EURUSD, GBPUSD Daily Forecasts

[MauMau4]

2020/12/15 recap

DXY – Bearish day. Price topped out for the day just shy of the H1 resistance level at 90.90 then dropped to the H1 support at 90.55. Moved back towards the high of the day but reversed again to close near the low of the day.

EURUSD – Bullish day. Price is just hovering around that D1 liquidity. We saw a huge drop in the 15 minutes prior to 08:00 as price fell through the H1 support and then eventually returned to the upper end of the day and remained in consolidation.

GBPUSD – Bullish day. Big move up yesterday to take out the previous day’s high where it paused at the D1 resistance then moved sideways. But has already broken through today. Early in the day price did reach into the gap opening the week, but quickly moved higher rather than filling it in.

[MauMau4]

2020/12/16

DXY
D1

• Liquidity
  Above 91.25
  Below 90.40 … in this area now

Bias – Bearish
Resistance 90.40
Support 89.80

H1
Resistance 90.40
Support 89.80

Already a big move down into the D1 liquidity. I will be looking to see if price can retrace back up to 90.35-90.40 then reject and move lower again towards the support.

Now that this liquidity has been taken, will need to watch price closely to see what happens. Annually, the DXY drops over the next couple weeks. But we are also do for a seasonality shift to the upside. I will remain bearish until the price action dictates that I change my view.

EURUSD
D1

• Liquidity
  Above 1.2180 … this was just taken today. Next liquidity is above 1.2500
  Below 1.2040

Bias – Bullish
Resistance 1.2215 (weekly level) … next 1.2240-1.2250
Support 1.2170-1.2175

H1
Resistance 1.2215 (weekly level)
Support 1.2165-1.2170

As with the dollar, the big move has happened. Would have like to see it during the NY session though. But we could still see a retrace back down to H1 support at 1.2165-1.2710 and then move back towards the high again today. If the dollar continues its’ move toward 89.80, we could see this move on the EURUSD.

GBPUSD
D1

• Liquidity
  Above 1.3540
  Below 1.3100

Bias – Bullish
Resistance 1.3715 (weekly level)
Support 1.3405

H1
Resistance 1.3525 (approaching at time of post) and 1.3575 (stronger of the two)
Support 1.3470

GBPUSD has not taken its’ D1 liquidity yet. Same as the dollar and euro, ideally a retrace back to the H1 support at 1.3470 and then a move higher to take out that liquidity is what I will be looking for.

[gabesj]

Hi and welcome…

[MauMau4]

2020/12/16 recap

DXY – Neutral day. Price finally took the lower liquidity. Did not reach the D1 support at 89.80 yesterday, but it has reached this today already. On the hourly, price shot through resistance at the FOMC announcement, but then came right back down.

EURUSD – Bullish day. Price took the upper liquidity and then reached the D1/H1 resistance level to form the high of the day. Same as the dollar, the FOMC news caused a big reaction to the downside. So basically, institutional money made a run of stops with the news and then ran price higher. If you were long and still in the market, your SL got hit. If you thought a new high was in and price would now break lower, your SL also got hit … today.

GBPUSD – Bullish day. Also took the upper liquidity. Price did retrace back to the H1 support like forecast and then moved higher. If SL was placed correctly, you potentially could still be in the trade over 100+ pips with more than 3:1 and still running.

[MauMau4]

2020/12/17

DXY
D1

• Liquidity
  Above 91.25
  Below 88.25

Bias – Bearish
Resistance 90.45
Support 89.80 … price is close but not there quite yet. Next 88.95 … hit once so could see price reach down to 88.75

H1
Resistance 90.10
Support 89.80 then 89.10

Opened with a gap down today. At some point, we will be looking for that gap to fill, hence the D1 resistance at 90.45.

Ideally looking for price to retrace up to H1 resistance at 90.10 and then move lower again to the support area.

Now that this liquidity has been taken, will need to watch price closely to see what happens. Annually, the DXY drops over the next couple weeks. But we are also do for a seasonality shift to the upside. I will remain bearish until the price action dictates that I change my view.

EURUSD
D1

• Liquidity
  Above 1.2510
  Below 1.2060

Bias – Bullish
Resistance 1.2250 … at this level now … next level is 1.2325
Support 1.2170-1.2175

H1
Resistance 1.2270 then 1.2340
Support 1.2210-1.2215

In conjunction with the dollar, a retrace back to H1 support and then move back up to a high on the day would be the ideal scenario. There is a nice liquidity area that could be filled between 1.2215-1.2225. The 10:30 news could drive this scenario.

However, a prolonged move below 1.2225 could be bearish or lead to consolidation.

GBPUSD
D1

• Liquidity
  Above between 1.3665-1.3710
  Below 1.3100

Bias – Bullish
Resistance 1.3760
Support 1.3450 and 1.3410

H1
Resistance 1.3680 and 1.3725
Support 1.3440-1.3450

Also looking for a retrace here to D1 Support at 1.3450 then looking to reach back towards upper liquidity. Ultimately will be bullish on the GBPUSD as price moves to the D1 upper end of liquidity at 1.3710.

[MauMau4]

2020/12/17 recap

DXY – Big bearish day. Price dropped right down into our 89.80 support area, formed the low of the day, and has since retraced a little bit higher. Never got the retrace we were looking for.

EURUSD – Big Bullish day. Price moved right up to the H1 support at 1.2170, also made the high of the day, and has sine started moving lower. But just like on the dollar, did not get the retrace I needed to get in.

GBPUSD – Bullish day. Did not reach the liquidity pool above, so that area will still be a draw on price. Price did reach into the H1 support at the end of the day and had a brief bounce higher before dropping lower today.

[MauMau4]

2020/12/18

DXY
D1

• Liquidity
  Above 91.25 (large pool) … 90.25-90.45 (smaller pool but could be short term draw)
  Below 88.25

Bias – Bearish to neutral
Resistance 90.10
Support 88.95 … hit once so could see price reach down to 88.75

H1
Resistance 90.10
Support 89.65

Now that the 89.80 major support area was reached, will need to watch price to see what happens. Expectation for today is basically consolidation or inside candle day. Could potentially see price retrace up to H1 resistance at 90.10. Depending on time of day that this potentially occurs, could look at price to drive lower back towards the low of the day.

Note that Institutional money is leaving the market this time of year. As we get closer to Christmas, all the way through week 1-2 of January, volume will be significantly lower. From Christmas week through week 1 of January, I do not trade.

EURUSD
D1

• Liquidity
  Above 1.2510
  Below 1.2060

Bias – Neutral
Resistance 1.2325
Support 1.2210

H1
Resistance 1.2270 was hit yesterday but still holding price below and in consolidation … then 1.2340
Support 1.2210-1.2215

Not much happening the Friday before Christmas week. This is potentially how the rest of the month will play out. Today I would be looking for a retrace back to support at 1.2210 then back to H1 resistance. But expecting mostly sideways movement.

GBPUSD
D1

• Liquidity
  Above between 1.3665-1.3710
  Below 1.3100

Bias – Neutral … could be bullish if the EURGBP breaks down from its’ current level to get below the 0.8980-0.8985 support that has been propping up price for December.
Resistance 1.3760
Support 1.3470

H1
Resistance 1.3560 then 1.3600
Support 1.3470-1.3495

There is a potential sell model in play right now. A price drop to support at 1.3470 would possibly complete the model and then price could move higher again.

If dollar and EUR stay in consolidation, I will be looking for the EURGBP to go as high as 0.9105, pushing the GBPUSD down to the support level. Then EURGBP making a run at the 0.8980 level, pushing GBPUSD up to H1 resistance.

[MauMau4]

2020/12/18 recap

DXY – Bullish day. Price reached right up into that resistance at 90.10, formed the high then retraced back below 90.00. Nice.

EURUSD – slight bearish day. As expected, price stayed in consolidation during the NY session with only about a 40 pip range. So not much to work with there.

GBPUSD – Bearish day. Price did indeed hit the support level at 1.3470 then moved higher by about 65 pips. Unfortunately, this was at the end of my trading session, so no entry.

[MauMau4]

2020/12/21

NOTE: Price has already made a huge move on the day. It almost reached the 90.10 resistance area and has begun to drop. Regardless, from now through week 1 of January, I do not trade. I will continue to provide forecasts. However please note that Institutional money is also on vacation during this time which makes price less predictable.

DXY
D1

• Liquidity
  Above 91.25
  Below 88.25

Bias – Bullish day overall … from now, slightly bearish due to rejection from resistance area
Resistance 90.10 … hit today already … next 91.30
Support 88.95 … hit once so could see price reach down to 88.75

H1
Resistance 91.55
Support 90.65

EURUSD
D1

• Liquidity
  Above 1.2510
  Below 1.2060

Bias – Bullish overall … from now, bullish due to support holding up price
Resistance 1.2225
Support 1.2250 already taken today but could still be in play. Next 1.2000

H1
Resistance 1.2170 than 1.2185
Support 1.2210-1.2215

GBPUSD
D1
Over 300 pip move already. Definitely staying away until January.

• Liquidity
  Above between 1.3665-1.3710
  Below 1.3100

Bias – No view
Resistance 1.3470
Support 1.3065

H1
Resistance 1.3265 then 1.3345
Support 1.3140 … huge move off this previously so not as strong now.

[MauMau4]

2020/12/21 recap

DXY – Bullish day overall but bearish through NY as expected. Pretty big moves in both directions yesterday. Liquidity areas still intact but pretty much blew through support and resistance levels.

EURUSD – Slight bearish day and very bullish through NY as forecast. From the time of the forecast, we saw the D1 resistance at 1.2225 hold and push price to its low of the day, 100 pips lower. Price then recovered almost all the way back to opening price. H1 support and resistance levels meant nothing. Yesterday was all about the daily levels.

GBPUSD – Bearish day but also recovered through the NY session. The levels forecast meant nothing yesterday, just like on the EURUSD.

[MauMau4]

2020/12/22

NOTE: Price has already made a huge move on the day. It almost reached the 90.10 resistance area and has begun to drop. Regardless, from now through week 1 of January, I do not trade. I will continue to provide forecasts. However please note that Institutional money is also on vacation during this time which makes price less predictable.

DXY
D1

• Liquidity
  Above 91.25
  Below 89.75

Bias – No view
Resistance 90.90
Support 89.00

H1
Resistance 90.40
Support 90.00
H1 Liquidity area at 90.15

EURUSD
D1

• Liquidity
  Above 1.2270
  Below 1.2060

Bias – No view
Resistance 1.2225
Support 1.2150 but already hit yesterday … Next level at 1.1960

H1
Resistance 1.2230 … weak level
Support 1.2185 … weak level … next would be the D1 support level

GBPUSD
D1

• Liquidity
  Above between 1.3625
  Below 1.3130

Bias – No view
Resistance 1.3585
Support 1.3060

H1
Resistance 1.3495 but hit yesterday … next would be D1 resistance
Support 1.3315

[MauMau4]

2020/12/22 Recap

DXY – Bullish day. Stayed below the D1 resistance. However, the hourly grabbed the lower liquidity (Sell Stops) and shot higher, right through the H1 resistance, before moving into consolidation.

EURUSD – Bearish day. Came down to the D1 Support, held, and has moved higher in today’s session. Both H1 support and resistance levels were broken, hence “weak”. Hopefully, we will see some better levels today.

GBPUSD – Bearish day. Nice move into the H1 support at 1.3315 then moved higher, continuing into today.

[MauMau4]

2020/12/23

NOTE: From now through week 1 of January, I do not trade. I will continue to provide forecasts. However please note that Institutional money is also on vacation during this time which makes price less predictable.

No forecasts on Christmas Eve, 24th, or Christmas, 25th.

DXY
D1

• Liquidity
  Above 91.25
  Below 89.75

Bias – Consolidation day
Resistance 90.90
Support 89.00

H1
Resistance 90.55 … already hit … next would be D1 at 90.90
Support 90.30

Likely to see consolidation today. Institutional money has left the market for the holidays. H1 Liquidity below 90.35 and potentially all the way down to 90.15. I like the H1 support but there is a possibility for a move lower. Not an area I would trade even if I were trading at this time of year. Rather watch and study.

EURUSD
D1

• Liquidity
  Above 1.2270
  Below 1.2060

Bias – Bearish from posting time
Resistance 1.2225
Support 1.2150 but already hit yesterday … Next level at 1.1960

H1
Resistance 1.2205
Support 1.2150 … same as D1

If we see a correlating move of the dollar down to H1 support and the EURUSD up to H1 resistance, could potentially see a nice rejection and move down to take yesterday’s and possibly Monday’s low.

GBPUSD
D1

• Liquidity
  Above between 1.3625
  Below 1.3130

Bias – Bearish from posting time
Resistance 1.3585
Support 1.3060

H1
Resistance 1.3495 but hit Monday … next would be D1 resistance
Support 1.3245

Like on the EURUSD, could see a drive up to H1 resistance followed by a move to take out yesterday and Monday’s lows. On GBPUSD, there is and H1 and D1 liquidity drawer lower.

[MauMau4]

2020/12/23 Recap

Supposed institutional levels mean nothing this time of year. LOL. What looked to be a consolidation day across these pairs turned out to be some pretty big moves, completely ignoring most levels. Again, this is why I am not trading this time of year.

DXY – Bearish day. Big price moves during the NY session. The H1 resistance level at 90.55 held strong and we saw a big reaction to the downside. But moved right through the H1 support and hit another institutional level at 90.15. Opposite of what I was looking for.

EURUSD – Bullish day. After posting, we say a move to the downside. I was expecting a move higher into the H1 support and liquidity first. However, the opposite happened.

GBPUSD – Bullish day. Surprised to see price move up through H1 support and the weekly high/opening price. Very strong move by the GBPUSD! Price is currently at D1 support. Will be interesting to see what happens from here.

[MauMau4]

2020/12/24

No forecast

MERRY CHRISTMAS

[MauMau4]

2020/12/25

No forecast

MERRY CHRISTMAS

[MauMau4]

2020/12/28

NOTE: From now through week 1 of January, I do not trade. I will continue to provide forecasts. However please note that Institutional money is also on vacation during this time which makes price less predictable.

No forecasts on New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day

DXY
D1

• Liquidity
  Above 91.25
  Below 89.75

Bias – Bearish
Resistance 90.90
Support 90.05

H1
Resistance 90.20
Support 90.00

For the week, I am look for the liquidity and sell stops below 88.25 to be the big draw for a bearish week on the dollar.

While I am expecting the day to bearish for the dollar, a key D1 support is near with confluence on H1. If I were trading today, I would not go long on those support levels today as my bias is to the downside. Ideal scenario would be to see dollar move lower into the support areas, retrace back up to the H1 resistance, then move lower to take the liquidity below 89.75.

EURUSD
D1

• Liquidity
  Above 1.2275
  Below 1.2130

Bias – Bullish
Resistance 1.2250 (weekly level)
Support 1.1960

H1
Resistance 1.2250 (weekly level)
Support 1.2210-1.2215

For the week, the 1.2415 liquidity should be the draw to push price higher. But … price right now is in a W1 resistance area. Two consecutive weeks have seen this level hold. Only after pushing through will I be truly bullish.

The H1 liquidity had been taken. Looking for a slight reverse in price now. If the scenario on the dollar plays out, then the same should play out on the EURUSD … move lower into H1 support at 1.2215 then higher towards the W1 resistance at 1.2250. Tight range.

GBPUSD
D1

• Liquidity
  Above 1.3625
  Below 1.3130

Bias – Bullish
Resistance 1.3625
Support 1.3360

H1
Resistance 1.3580
Support 1.3430

Looking for weekly pricing to potentially reach as high as 1.3800 filing in W1 liquidity AND hitting W1 resistance.

Other than the weekly view, no daily forecast. Too much going on in Britain and little institutional money in the market.

[MauMau4]

2020/12/28 Recap

DXY – Bullish day showing a lack of market symmetry with the EUR and GBP, partly caused by lack of institutional money in the market now. We did see the H1 support hold at 90.00, push price up into H1 liquidity and then another retracement into that same liquidity later on.

EURUSD – Bullish day. Price moved right through the H1 liquidity to get to the W1 support at 1.2250, which did indeed reject price by about 60 pips. On the rejection however, price did break through the H1 support at 1.2210.

GBPUSD – Big bearish day. Completely opposite of the EURUSD. The H1 resistance at 1.3580 kept price below. Then price moved to take the H1 liquidity and bounce of H1 support at 1.3430. This is really the ideal trade setup I look for … but not this time of year and need confluence with the dollar.

[MauMau4]

2020/12/29

NOTE: From now through week 1 of January, I do not trade. I will continue to provide forecasts. However please note that Institutional money is also on vacation during this time which makes price less predictable.

No forecasts on New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day

DXY
D1

• Liquidity
  Above 91.25
  Below 89.75

Bias – Bearish
Resistance 90.90
Support 90.05 … hit yesterday … next is 89.00

H1
Resistance 90.10
Support 89.65

For the week, I am look for the liquidity and sell stops below 88.25 to be the big draw for a bearish week on the dollar.

Dollar has been in consolidation for a few days. Could today be the day it breaks lower to take the D1 liquidity? Ideal scenario for me would be to move higher to take the H1 liquidity and hit H1 resistance at 90.30, then move lower to take out yesterday’s low.

EURUSD
D1

• Liquidity
  Above 1.2275
  Below 1.2130

Bias – Bullish
Resistance 1.2250 (weekly level) … held strong yesterday. Will be retested again today
Support 1.2150

H1
Resistance 1.2250 (weekly level)
Support 1.2215

For the week, the 1.2415 liquidity should be the draw to push price higher. But … price right now is in a W1 resistance area. Two consecutive weeks have seen this level hold. Only after pushing through will I be truly bullish.

In confluence with the dollar (if market symmetry were intact), would look for EURUSD to retrace lower to take H1 liquidity and bounce off H1 support at 1.2215, then retrace back up to the W1 support.

GBPUSD
D1

• Liquidity
  Above 1.3625
  Below 1.3130

Bias – Bullish
Resistance 1.3625
Support 1.3360

H1
Resistance 1.3580
Support 1.3245

Looking for weekly pricing to potentially reach as high as 1.3800 filing in W1 liquidity AND hitting W1 resistance.

Other than the weekly view, no daily forecast. Wide range between H1 levels, but we could potentially see 1.3145 act as H1 support too.

[MauMau4]

2020/12/29 Recap

DXY – Bearish day. The H1 resistance at 90.10 held strong and pushed the price lower for the day. Price took out yesterday’s low, bounced back up to the H1 resistance and, today, has dipped into the D1 liquidity.

EURUSD – Bullish day. Price once again tested that weekly resistance by going above and touching the D1 liquidity before dropping back and closing below it for the day. We saw the NY midnight opening candle act as really good support. In confluence with the dollar, price retraced back to the opening price then moved strong into the liquidity draw.

GBPUSD – Bullish day. Stayed in consolidation throughout the London and NY sessions, allowing EURUSD to run in conjunction with the Dollar.