DXY, EURUSD, GBPUSD Daily Forecasts

[MauMau4]

2021/01/14 Recap

DXY – Neutral day. We did not get the initial move down that would have potentially given a trade setup. But ultimately, price did move down towards the H1 support at 90.00. Did not quite make it all the way as it found support at the weekly open price before moving back towards the daily open.

EURUSD – Neutral day. As I said, huge draw in D1 liquidity below price yesterday. Did not expect it to that direction though. However, it did drop and eat up the liquidity before returning to the daily open.

GBPUSD – Bullish day. We did get the initial drop in price, not back to the H1 support we wanted to see though. Price then moved higher into the W1 liquidity as forecast.

[MauMau4]

2021/01/15

NOTE: Trading in January will be limited. This is a low probability month as institutional money is slowly returning.

Keep in mind that political drama in the US will still be a factor. Either impeaching or using the 25th Amendment to get rid of Trump will have market implications. Rioting will potentially continue. And anything can happen on the 20th during inauguration of Biden. So please be careful with your trading and risk.

DXY
D1

• Liquidity
  Above 91.25
  Below 89.20

Bias – Bearish
Resistance 90.90
Support 89.95

H1
Resistance 90.47
Support 90.00

Long term, I am still bearish on the dollar. We did, however, approach a weekly support level at 89.00 and moved higher from that level. Could potentially see a move higher into the W1 liquidity above 91.25 before resuming the downward trend.

We have new liquidity forming above 90.70. this could be a draw on price next week. Price is at the H1 resistance of 90.47. I am looking for this to hold today and push price lower. Maybe reaching for yesterday’s low at 90.15.

EURUSD
D1

• Liquidity
  Above 1.2350
  Below 1.2130

Bias – Bullish to neutral
Resistance 1.2245
Support 1.2005

H1
Resistance 1.2203
Support 1.2130

Long term bullish on the EURUSD. We are seeing long wicks on the high side, indicating selling pressure along with confluence of long wicks to the downside on the dollar, indicating buying pressure. Therefore, we could see a pullback in the short term. That pullback would reach for the W1 liquidity below 1.2060. There is also W1 support at 1.1860, accompanied by a small liquidity area just prior. This this the type of setup I look for when trading.

With the bearish dollar, I am looking for the D1 liquidity to act as support again and move higher. No upside targets though.

GBPUSD
D1

• Liquidity
  Above 1.3700
  Below 1.3450

Bias – Bullish to neutral
Resistance 1.3800
Support 1.3570

H1
Resistance 1.3700
Support 1.3603

Long term bullish on the GBPUSD. Must keep an eye on the results of Brexit though and all the fallout from the agreements reached. There really is not strong weekly support until we get down to the 1.3075 area. Unlike the EURUSD, the wicks on the GBPUSD or more on the downside, showing divergence. That could be due to the support shelf on the EURGBP at 0.8865. A break of this level could send the GBP higher and the EUR lower.

Expecting price to stay above the H1 support at 1.3603, which is just below the two prior days lows. Could be a good spot to take out those prior days sell stops and then run price higher.

[MauMau4]

2021/01/15 Recap

DXY – Bearish day. Looks like that 90.70 liquidity draw played out this week not next. We saw hesitation at the H1 resistance of 90.47, but it could not hold and price rose quickly after breaking through.

EURUSD – Bearish day. The D1 liquidity did not act as support and price went right through and kept dropping. Not what I expected to happen. Again, why I am waiting for February to start live trading again.

GBPUSD – Bearish day. Wrong on this one too. Price moved through hourly supports but did bounce off the D1 support at 1.3570.

[pezza55]

so you expect the DXY to drop next week?

[MauMau4]

Hi @pezza55, please see my analysis in the next post.

[MauMau4]

2021/01/18

NOTE: Trading in January will be limited. This is a low probability month as institutional money is slowly returning.

Keep in mind that political drama in the US will still be a factor. Either impeaching or using the 25th Amendment to get rid of Trump will have market implications. Rioting will potentially continue. And anything can happen on the 20th during inauguration of Biden. So please be careful with your trading and risk.

DXY
D1
Liquidity
Above 91.25
Below 89.20

Bias – Bullish
Resistance 90.90 … hit once before and at this level now … next is 91.75
Support 90.53

H1
Resistance 91.60
Support 90.53 (daily)

Long term, I am still bearish on the dollar. However, still looks like we are headed higher to at least start the week. There is a weekly liquidity draw above 91.25 that reaches up to 91.75. Then there is some strong resistance around the 92.10 level.

Have to wait ad see what happens now that we are sitting at a D1 (previously held) resistance level before determining what happens next. If price moves higher, then I am expecting a run up to the weekly liquidity above 91.25. If price moves lower, the down candles on the recent dollar up move have acted as support, so I expect the D1 support at 90.53 to hold and push price higher.

EURUSD
D1
Liquidity
Above 1.2350
Below 1.2060

Bias – Bearish
Resistance 1.2137
Support 1.2005

H1
Resistance 1.2111
Support 1.2005

Long term bullish on the EURUSD. Price just hit a weekly fair value gap (liquidity) and rejected. However, I do expect price to enter this area. The EURUSD is showing weakness relative to the dollar and GBPUSD in that today broken the Dec 1st prior low while the dollar has not reached the same corresponding high and the GBPUSD is not even close to that same low.

Could potentially see a move up to the H1 resistance at 1.2111 then reject lower into the weekly FVG below.

GBPUSD
D1
Liquidity
Above 1.3790
Below 1.3430

Bias – Bearish to neutral
Resistance 1.3800
Support 1.3360

H1
Resistance 1.3638
Support 1.3495

Long term bullish on the GBPUSD. There is a big liquidity draw just above current price. However, with the bullish dollar, I would expect the GBPUSD to consolidate or drop slightly for the week, allowing the EURUSD to move more to the downside.

Todays NY midnight open looks to be a strong resistance area at 1.3564. I will be looking for a retrace up to that opening price and then move lower towards the H1 liquidity and support at 1.3495.

[MauMau4]

2021/01/18 Recap

DXY – Bearish to flat day. The D1 resistance at 90.90 held and has pushed price lower, closing near the open price.

EURUSD – Bearish to flat day. Basically, a consolidation day, however, we did get nice bounce off the weekly FVG and price is now moving higher towards the D1 resistance.

GBPUSD – Bearish to flat day. The weekly open price acted as temporary resistance, causing price to consolidate once reached. Price has popped above already today and now that level is acting as support.

[MauMau4]

2021/01/19

NOTE: Trading in January will be limited. This is a low probability month as institutional money is slowly returning.

Keep in mind that political drama in the US will still be a factor. Rioting will potentially continue. And anything can happen on the 20th during inauguration of Biden. So please be careful with your trading and risk.

DXY
D1

• Liquidity
  Above 91.25
  Below 89.20

Bias – Bullish
Resistance 90.90 … hit twice … next is 91.75
Support 90.53

H1
Resistance 90.68
Support 90.41

Long term, I am still bearish on the dollar. However, still looks like we are headed higher to at least start the week. There is a weekly liquidity draw above 91.25 that reaches up to 91.75. Then there is some strong resistance around the 92.10 level.

Definitely on the sidelines today. Price rejected from the D1 resistance yesterday and is now sitting at a key D1 support of 90.53. This could potentially be the area that determines whether the dollar continues higher or ultimately goes lower to form new lows. Tomorrow’s inauguration will also be a key factor. Watching only.

EURUSD
D1

• Liquidity
  Above 1.2350
  Below 1.2060

Bias – Bearish
Resistance 1.2137
Support 1.2005

H1
Resistance 1.2137 (daily)
Support 1.2081

Long term bullish on the EURUSD. Price just hit a weekly fair value gap (liquidity) and rejected. However, I do expect price to enter this area. The EURUSD is showing weakness relative to the dollar and GBPUSD in that today broken the Dec 1st prior low while the dollar has not reached the same corresponding high and the GBPUSD is not even close to that same low.

No trading. Must wait to see what happens with the dollar. The EURUSD is approaching D1 resistance at 1.2137 which is in a similar area to dollar support. Will we see a reversal or movement toward our long-term outlook?

GBPUSD
D1

• Liquidity
  Above 1.3790
  Below 1.3430

Bias – Bearish to neutral
Resistance 1.3617
Support 1.3360

H1
Resistance 1.3617 (daily) … next 1.3638
Support 1.3550

Long term bullish on the GBPUSD. There is a big liquidity draw just above current price. However, with the bullish dollar, I would expect the GBPUSD to consolidate or drop slightly for the week, allowing the EURUSD to move more to the downside.

No trading. Unlike the previous pair, the GBPUSD has moved above it is D1 resistance at 1.3617 and has held there for the moment. Waiting to see what happens. We are in no man’s land right now.

[MauMau4]

2021/01/19 Recap

DXY – Bearish day. Nice rejection from the D1 resistance at 90.90 two days ago. We saw follow through yesterday with the break of D1 support at 90.53. The H1 support of 90.41 held price in consolidation for most of the day. But it already gave way today.

EURUSD – Bullish day. As with the dollar, the rejection from the W1 FVG at 1.2060 is pushing price higher. We did see the D1 resistance at 1.2137 hold yesterday. However, price is pushing through right now. While I did not take it, there was a really nice M15 setup that netted 40 pips. No trading in January.

GBPUSD – Bullish day. Price pushed through the D1 resistance at 1.3617 and is continuing higher today.

[MauMau4]

2021/01/20

US Inauguration Day (12:00 EST)

NOTE: Trading in January will be limited. This is a low probability month as institutional money is slowly returning.

Keep in mind that political drama in the US will still be a factor. Rioting will potentially continue. And anything can happen on the 20th during inauguration of Biden. So please be careful with your trading and risk.

DXY
D1

• Liquidity
  Above 91.25
  Below 89.20

Bias – No view
Resistance 90.90 … hit twice
Support 89.95

H1
Resistance 90.45
Support 90.00

Long term, I am still bearish on the dollar. However, still looks like we are headed higher to at least start the week. There is a weekly liquidity draw above 91.25 that reaches up to 91.75. Then there is some strong resistance around the 92.10 level.

No trading today. But …. Interesting price action so far. Price was moving down nicely until it hit the down candle from the 14th. Price it the opening price on the 14th at 90.28 and moved up. This is a bullish move with the down candle supporting price. Could see price move up to 90.71, the low from two days prior, or will it move above the D1 90.90 resistance level. We have seen consecutive lower highs for months now and one higher low since the 6th of January. Waiting to see what market structure gives way first. With all of the political action today, maybe we will find out.

EURUSD
D1

• Liquidity
  Above 1.2350
  Below 1.2060

Bias – No view
Resistance 1.2151
Support 1.2005

H1
Resistance 1.2140 (NY midnight open)
Support 1.2081

Long term bullish on the EURUSD. Price just hit a weekly fair value gap (liquidity) and rejected. However, I do expect price to enter this area. The EURUSD is showing weakness relative to the dollar and GBPUSD in that today broken the Dec 1st prior low while the dollar has not reached the same corresponding high and the GBPUSD is not even close to that same low.

No trading. Price has been rejected from the D1 resistance at 1.2151. Looking to see what happens at the H1 support of 1.2081 and then the W1 FVG below 1.2060. Keep an eye on the political environment today. Anything can happen in price.

GBPUSD
D1

• Liquidity
  Above 1.3790
  Below 1.3430

Bias – No view
Resistance 1.3800
Support 1.3360

H1
Resistance 1.3727 and 1.3740
Support 1.3651 (NY midnight open)

Long term bullish on the GBPUSD. There is a big liquidity draw just above current price. However, with the bullish dollar, I would expect the GBPUSD to consolidate or drop slightly for the week, allowing the EURUSD to move more to the downside.

The EURGBP support at 0.8875 has finally given way. This is extremely bullish for the GBPUSD. If the dollar drops, we can see a large runup in price on the GBPUSD. If the dollar rises, I will look for the GBPUSD to consolidate, letting the EURUSD drop, and then eventually rise when the dollar eventually resumes its bearish bias.

No trading. Given the strength of the GBP, even with dollar pushing higher right now, we could see the GBPUSD move up to the H1 liquidity and resistance levels. Normally, if the dollar stays bullish, I would expect consolidation at the H1 resistance area … but … anything can happen today with the political environment.

[MauMau4]

2021/01/20 Recap

DXY – Neutral day. Price stayed lower after rejecting from the D1 resistance a couple days ago. Good sign we could continue to the D1 Support at 89.95. Really looking for price to close below 90.31 on Thursday. We also saw price almost hit the 90.71 forecast resistance level and then drop straight down, bouncing off the NY midnight open before consolidating the rest of the day.

EURUSD – Bearish day. We did see the D1 resistance of 1.2151 hold and push price lower. How nice was that bounce of the H1 support at 1.2081???

GBPUSD – Bullish day. Because of the EURGBP drop, we saw the divergence from the EURUSD today. Price did move right up into our H1 liquidity area coming up just short of the resistance at 1.3727. Then moved lower on dollar strength.

[MauMau4]

2021/01/21

NOTE: Trading in January will be limited. This is a low probability month as institutional money is slowly returning.

Keep in mind that political drama in the US will still be a factor. Rioting will potentially continue. And anything can happen on the 20th during inauguration of Biden. So please be careful with your trading and risk.

DXY
D1

• Liquidity
  Above 91.25
  Below 89.20

Bias – Bearish
Resistance 90.90 … hit twice
Support 89.95 … hit once

H1
Resistance 90.31
Support 90.00

Long term, I am still bearish on the dollar. However, still looks like we are headed higher to at least start the week. There is a weekly liquidity draw above 91.25 that reaches up to 91.75. Then there is some strong resistance around the 92.10 level.

No trading today. The H1 resistance at 90.31 held as is moving price lower towards the D1 support at 89.95. If price can move below that support, I will be targeting weekly and monthly support levels around 89.00. Note there is new resistance at H1 90.26 just below the NY midnight open at 90.30 … strong resistance area. A retrace to here and move lower is possible.

EURUSD
D1

• Liquidity
  Above 1.2350
  Below 1.2060

Bias – Bullish
Resistance 1.2185
Support 1.2109

H1
Resistance 1.2185
Support 1.2135 … just formed by the move up into H1 Liquidity/Resistance (not drawn on chart)

Long term bullish on the EURUSD. Price just hit a weekly fair value gap (liquidity) and rejected. However, I do expect price to enter this area. The EURUSD is showing weakness relative to the dollar and GBPUSD in that today broken the Dec 1st prior low while the dollar has not reached the same corresponding high and the GBPUSD is not even close to that same low.

No trading. H1 liquidity above 1.2136 has drawn price higher. Price is at the H1 resistance of 1.2140. Not expecting this level to hold. Ultimately, if price can get past that D1 resistance at 1.2151, I think it will reach for the W1 resistance at 1.2185, where I think the high of the day will come in.

GBPUSD
D1

• Liquidity
  Above 1.3790
  Below 1.3430

Bias – Bullish
Resistance 1.3760 (monthly) … Daily level at 1.3800
Support 1.3637

H1
Resistance 1.3760 (monthly)
Support 1.3683 (NY midnight open)

Long term bullish on the GBPUSD. There is a big liquidity draw just above current price. However, with the bullish dollar, I would expect the GBPUSD to consolidate or drop slightly for the week, allowing the EURUSD to move more to the downside.

No trading. The GBPUSD has moved up to form a new high, breaking through W1 resistance at 1.3712. this weekly resistance was already tested twice. So not as strong as before. Price also filled in a weekly FVG to the pip and has dropped a little. There is now a M1 resistance level at 1.3760. Very critical area for the GBPUSD. I am looking for it to break through and push towards 1.4500. But on the sidelines until a clear direction is presented.

[MauMau4]

2021/01/21 Recap

DXY – Bearish day. Price did indeed continue lower towards the D1 support as forecasted. Then we saw the retrace up to the NY midnight open where it found resistance and moved lower as we expected.

EURUSD – Bullish day. Almost to script. Price moved right through the H1 liquidity area and both H1 resistances failed to hold. Price then moved towards the W1 resistance at 1.2185. It did not reach yesterday but has reached it today and rejected so far.

GBPUSD – Bullish day. Price found resistance at H1 1.3740 and consolidate in this liquidity range for the day. Did not make it to M1 resistance as we were looking for.

[MauMau4]

2021/01/22

NOTE: Trading in January will be limited. This is a low probability month as institutional money is slowly returning.

Keep in mind that political drama in the US will still be a factor. Rioting will potentially continue. And anything can happen on the 20th during inauguration of Biden. So please be careful with your trading and risk.

DXY
D1

• Liquidity
  Above 91.25
  Below 89.20

Bias – No View
Resistance 90.90 … hit twice
Support 89.95 … hit once

H1
Resistance 90.31
Support 90.00

Long term, I am still bearish on the dollar. However, still looks like we are headed higher to at least start the week. There is a weekly liquidity draw above 91.25 that reaches up to 91.75. Then there is some strong resistance around the 92.10 level.

No trading today. Price could go either direction today so no bias. I am looking for it to at least drop down to the D1 support at 89.95. From there we will need to see what price wants to do. Still expecting a move to the downside long term. However, if price is going to move to the upside, this D1 support area is where it needs to happen. Moving below it will break market structure and for a new lower daily low.

EURUSD
D1

• Liquidity
  Above 1.2350
  Below 1.2060

Bias – No View
Resistance 1.2185
Support 1.2109

H1
Resistance 1.2185 (weekly)
Support 1.2109

Long term bullish on the EURUSD. Price just hit a weekly fair value gap (liquidity) and rejected. However, I do expect price to enter this area. The EURUSD is showing weakness relative to the dollar and GBPUSD in that today broken the Dec 1st prior low while the dollar has not reached the same corresponding high and the GBPUSD is not even close to that same low.

No trading. Price has rejected off the W1 level at 1.2185 already today. If the dollar moves lower as I expect, then we will see this pair reach for at least the H1 resistance at 1.2203. This is still within the range of the W1 resistance. If price moves lower, we will need to see a bounce of the 1.2125 D1 open price of the prior down close candle for this pair to be bullish and continue moving up. That rejection of the W1 FVG four days ago is very bullish. So I am expecting price to continue higher.

GBPUSD
D1

• Liquidity
  Above 1.3790
  Below 1.3430

Bias – No View
Resistance 1.3760 (monthly) … Daily level at 1.3800
Support 1.3637

H1
Resistance 1.3760 (monthly)
Support 1.3637 (daily)

Long term bullish on the GBPUSD. There is a big liquidity draw just above current price. However, with the bullish dollar, I would expect the GBPUSD to consolidate or drop slightly for the week, allowing the EURUSD to move more to the downside.

No trading. Price has rejected strong from the H1 1.3740 level. Because of this strong rejection, I left that level on the chart. Today I will be looking for the D1 support at 1.3637 to keep price from moving any lower. With no news drivers today, I do not expect price to reach back up to the M1 resistance at 1.3760. That will likely be a target for next week.

[MauMau4]

2021/01/22 Recap

DXY – Bullish day. Consolidation day. No significant movement other than NY midnight open supporting price multiple times.

EURUSD – Bullish day. Same as the dollar, consolidation for the day after hitting the W1 resistance at 1.2185.

GBPUSD – Bearish day. With the EURUSD in consolidation, the GBPUSD was allowed to move lower. Price reached the D1 support at 1.3637 and then moved higher for 45+ pips.

[MauMau4]

2021/01/25

NOTE: Trading in January will be limited. This is a low probability month as institutional money is slowly returning.

DXY
D1

• Liquidity
  Above 91.25
  Below 89.20

Bias – Bullish
Resistance 90.90 … hit twice
Support 89.95 … hit once

H1
Resistance 90.31
Support 90.19

On the weekly chart we have been moving relatively sideways for a few weeks now. There are two draws on price right now … above 91.25 and below 89.20. Long term, I still believe the dollar is looking to go lower. But we could still see price climb before it eventually moves lower. A retrace up to the W1 resistance at 92.13 is very possible and honestly a move I would like to see prior to a move to the downside.

Last week of no trading. Based on the weekly chart, price could go either direction. But … with todays price action so far, it looks like price wants to move higher in the short term. Today I will be looking for a retrace down to H1 support at 90.19 then a move up to H1 resistance at 90.31.

EURUSD
D1

• Liquidity
  Above 1.2350
  Below 1.2060

Bias – Bearish
Resistance 1.2185
Support 1.2151 … 1.2130 (key area explained below)

H1
Resistance 1.2168
Support 1.2129 (daily) … 1.2109

Weekly … price has bounced off the 1.2185 resistance and looks to be moving lower. Retail candlestick traders will see the last two weeks as railroad tracks and therefore a move to the high side. Smart money knows and will look to take the longs from those traders and then push price lower. With the dollar looking to go higher, I would expect the EURUSD to move down accordingly. The M1 support at 1.2010 and the W1 liquidity below 1.2060 are great draws on price and good areas to see a bounce.

Last week of no trading. On the daily, as mentioned above, price is moving lower off the W1 resistance level. A key area to watch will be the prior down close candle. If price is to move higher in the near term, that D1 candle, open at 1.2129, price will need to be supported by this candle. If this candle gives way, then I will be looking for price to move to at least the W1 FVG. On the hourly, I will be looking for price to retrace up to the H1 resistance at 1.2164 and then move down to that daily candle open at 1.2129.

GBPUSD
D1

• Liquidity
  Above 1.3750
  Below 1.3520

Bias – Bearish
Resistance 1.3760 (monthly) … Daily/Weekly level at 1.3800
Support 1.3637 … hit once

H1
Resistance 1.3760 (monthly)
Support 1.3668 … and 1.3637 (daily)

Weekly … The GBPUSD has become disconnected from the dollar and is not moving in conjunction as expected. Knowing that, it is very possible the price could move higher while the dollar moves higher and the EURUSD drops. Above price however, there is strong resistance right now … W1 resistance at 1.3800 and M1 resistance at 1.3760. I will be looking for price to reach towards these levels.

Last week of no trading. Price is at the H1 support level of 1.3668, which is a fairly week level. I will be looking for price to continue lower through this area. Ideally, a retrace up to the NY midnight open at 1.3704 first and then a move lower towards the D1 support at 1.3637 would be ideal.

[MauMau4]

2021/01/25 Recap

DXY – Bullish day. Price moved as forecast. Did not quite reach the H1 support at 91.19, but only missed by 3 pips. Then it did indeed move up to the H1 resistance at 90.31 and right through it. Price eventually found resistance at the prior D1 up close candle. This is a key are to determine which direction price will move.

EURUSD – Bearish day. Price moved as forecast. Price retraced up to the H1 resistance at 1.2164, 1 pip short, then dropped right into the D1 support we were looking for at 1.2129. As with the dollar, this is a key daily area to determine which direction price will go.

GBPUSD – Bearish day. Price also moved as forecast. Price did move up from the H1 support at 1.3668, almost reaching the NY midnight open then falling right through that same H1 support as expected.

[MauMau4]

2021/01/26

NOTE: Trading in January will be limited. This is a low probability month as institutional money is slowly returning.

DXY
D1

• Liquidity
  Above 91.25
  Below 89.20

Bias – Bullish
Resistance 90.90 … hit twice
Support 89.95 … hit once

H1
Resistance 90.68
Support 90.39

On the weekly chart we have been moving relatively sideways for a few weeks now. There are two draws on price right now … above 91.25 and below 89.20. Long term, I still believe the dollar is looking to go lower. But we could still see price climb before it eventually moves lower. A retrace up to the W1 resistance at 92.13 is very possible and honestly a move I would like to see prior to a move to the downside.

Last week of no trading. Early on today, price suggested a move to the upside. Now I am not so sure. But the H1 support at 90.39 looks like it could hold price up and push it higher towards the H1 resistance at 90.68, which I do not believe to a strong level and will therefore allow price to continue to run up to the D1 resistance at 90.90.

EURUSD
D1

• Liquidity
  Above 1.2190
  Below 1.2060

Bias – Bearish
Resistance 1.2185
Support 1.2130 (key area explained below)

H1
Resistance 1.2164
Support 1.2129 (daily) … 1.2180

Weekly … price has bounced off the 1.2185 resistance and looks to be moving lower. Retail candlestick traders will see the last two weeks as railroad tracks and therefore a move to the high side. Smart money knows and will look to take the longs from those traders and then push price lower. With the dollar looking to go higher, I would expect the EURUSD to move down accordingly. The M1 support at 1.2010 and the W1 liquidity below 1.2060 are great draws on price and good areas to see a bounce.

Last week of no trading. Price moved into D1 support and dropped to our H1 support at 1.2109 and bounced nicely. But it does look like price wants to drop again. Will be looking for a move down to 1.2180.

GBPUSD
D1

• Liquidity
  Above 1.3750
  Below 1.3520

Bias – Bearish
Resistance 1.3760 (monthly) … Daily/Weekly level at 1.3800
Support 1.3637 … hit today already … next 1.3360

H1
Resistance 1.3660
Support 1.3637 (daily)

Weekly … The GBPUSD has become disconnected from the dollar and is not moving in conjunction as expected. Knowing that, it is very possible the price could move higher while the dollar moves higher and the EURUSD drops. Above price however, there is strong resistance right now … W1 resistance at 1.3800 and M1 resistance at 1.3760. I will be looking for price to reach towards these levels.

Last week of no trading. This pair also looks like it wants to drop in price. It hit the H1 resistance at 1.3660 and is moving lower … currently sitting at the NY midnight open. Expecting price to drop and form a new low today. With the lack of major news today, I do not think price will be able to reach the H1 liquidity at 1.3560 and the subsequent support at 1.3550. But, this will ultimately be a draw and target on price today/tomorrow.

[MauMau4]

2021/01/26 Recap

DXY – Bearish day. Price did exactly opposite of my forecast almost as soon as I posted it. Again, why I do not trade in January. Plus the dollar is range bound between Daily support and resistance levels. Price moved right through two H1 supports and is moving towards the D1 support of the lower range.

EURUSD – Bullish day. The D1 support at 1.2129 and H1 support at 1.2109 held price up, moving it towards the W1 resistance at 1.2185 again.

GBPUSD – Big bullish day. Price grabbed sell stop orders below the D1 support at 1.3637 and then ran straight up to the H1 resistance at 1.3740, which sits just below the monthly resistance at 1.3670.

[MauMau4]

2021/01/27

NOTE: Trading in January will be limited. This is a low probability month as institutional money is slowly returning.

DXY
D1

• Liquidity
  Above 91.25
  Below 89.20

Bias – Bullish to flat
Resistance 90.90 … hit twice
Support 89.95 … hit once

H1
Resistance 90.68
Support 90.39

Last week of no trading. With the EURUSD at D1 support (AGAIN) and the GBPUSD at M1 resistance, I am expecting the dollar to move higher or consolidate leading into a no news day until the FOMC at end of day. The dollar has already bounced off H1 resistance at 90.41. Looking for a retrace back to NY midnight open and from there consolidation or a move higher towards the mean of daily rangebound pricing at 90.42, which is coincidently that same H1 resistance already hit.

EURUSD
D1

• Liquidity
  Above 1.2190
  Below 1.2060

Bias – Bearish to flat
Resistance 1.2185
Support 1.2130 (key area explained below)

H1
Resistance 1.2157
Support 1.2129 (daily) … 1.2109

Last week of no trading. Price has moved into the D1 support level at 1.2.129 again today, thus weakening this level even more. In conjunction with the dollar, we could see a move higher in the EURUSD to the H1 resistance and NY midnight open at 1.2157, followed by a move lower through the D1 support again.

GBPUSD
D1

• Liquidity
  Above 1.3750
  Below 1.3520

Bias – Bearish
Resistance 1.3760 (monthly) … Daily/Weekly level at 1.3800
Support 1.3637 … hit today already … next 1.3360

H1
Resistance 1.3760
Support 1.3637 (daily)

Last week of no trading. So far today, this pair has stayed above the NY midnight open in consolidation. It also reached M1 resistance at 1.3760 and moved right back to the open price. There is quite a bit of H1 liquidity below price right now. This is a big draw. If the dollar moves higher or stays consolidated, we could easily see the GBPUSD move lower to the H1 support at 1.3677.