2021/03/02
DXY
D1
- Liquidity
Above 91.50
Below 89.90
Bias – Bullish
-OB 91.25 (Weekly FVG Low) … next RB 91.53 (Daily)
+2-day prior high 90.97
H1
-MB 91.36
+OB 91.08 … next 2-day prior high 90.97 and Weekly open 90.77
Weekly … the Dollar has essentially been in consolidation since December. Not expecting this week to be the breakout. But overall, I am expecting the dollar to drop. Ideally looking for 91.25 to act as resistance. If that level gives way, then a breakout to 92.20 is very possible. But at either level, I will be expecting the Dollar to reverse and move lower. Long term still bearish and looking for the 89.00. Will need to watch bond prices this week. An increase in rates will drive the Dollar to these levels and then we can look for a reversal.
Daily … Price already hit the Hourly Mitigation Block at 91.36. From here, it can do two things today … it can go up or it can go down. Profound I know. Up bias … looking for a retrace down to the Hourly OB at 91.08 or ideally Friday’s high of 90.97 and then push higher into the Weekly FVG. There is a bit of resistance once it is in the FVG at a Daily level of 91.53 and Hourly level of 91.60. Down bias … Price pushed up into the Weekly FVG and rejected. If price drops and leaves this FVG unfilled, this is a very bearish sign. In this scenario, I will be looking for price to hit the Hourly Bullish OB or Friday’s High, retrace up to the NYMO at 91.22, and then drop and reach for the Daily FVG below 90.70.
EURUSD
D1
- Liquidity
Above 1.2240
Below 1.2025
Bias – Bearish
-2-Day Prior Low 1.2062
+OB 1.1960
H1
-2-Day Prior Low 1.2062
+OB 1.1984
Weekly … The EURUSD has been drifting slightly lower this year but essentially in consolidation. Last week, price hit the bearish OB at 1.2185 and rejected. I am expecting a retest of the level this week. The strongest liquidity draw looks to be the 1.2240 level. That is where I am looking for price to reach for.
Daily … Today price has dipped below the prior low at 1.2033 and into Sell Stop Liquidity. Reached the 1.2000 level which was my second target on the trade mentioned in the recap for yesterday. 
At that 1.2000 is an Hourly BISI which was filled and pushed price higher. Ideally looking for price to retrace to the 1.2041 level which was previously a Daily bullish rejection block, but based on today’s action after breaking that level, has become an Hourly Bearish Mitigation Block. Price could reach for Friday’s low but that is not the scenario I am looking for. Will be looking for price to reach for the Daily OB at 1.1960. Butttttt … this could all be a stop run to take the liquidity below 1.2025 and then the EURUSD starts running higher again. If both scenarios are probable … do not trade.
GBPUSD
D1
- Liquidity
Above 1.4240
Below 1.3890
Bias – Consolidation
-FVG 1.4028
+BISI Low 1.3867 (Weekly)
H1
-MB 1.4098
+MB 1.3871 … next 1.3830 (Weekly BISI high)
Weekly … History would suggest the GBPUSD should retrace a bit this month while the EURUSD and Dollar continue their consolidation. BUUUTTTT … do not want to jump the gun, however retail traders are looking at the Weekly Shooting Star candle, which tells me smart money will be buying up their sells and push price higher. We could see a bit of a drop initially to as low as the Monthly 1.3760 level. Whether it drops that much or not, either way I am targeting the high from last week at 1.4242.
Daily … Price has already dropped into the liquidity below 1.3890 and found support at the Hourly Mitigation Block, NYMO, and Weekly BISI. This would normally be a good area to see the GBPUSD turn and run higher. But given the dollar has not decided what it wants to do today, it is possible the GBPUSD could consolidate again today. There is also a ton of support below price right now. I have included those areas on the chart below. The GBPUSD will have a hard time going much lower. If it breaks these price levels, it could very easily make a run down to 1.3400.
