@partiban … I am in agreement that the EURUSD is currently bullish. Right now, my upside is around the 1.2200 level but could very well adjust to the 1.2300 area depending on the reaction at 1.2200.
DXY – Bearish Day. The dollar continued falling on the day. However, we did not get the retrace back to the NYMO open that we were looking for.
EURUSD – Bullish Day. Price steadily rose throughout the day. Did not get the retrace back to the NYMO that we were looking for, just like on the dollar. Price reached the H1 Bearish OB at 1.2123 and consolidated for the remainder of the day. It has pushed through a bit already today.
GBPUSD – Bullish Day. Price hung around the NYMO open for most of the day, only at the end moving higher. It has moved a little bit past the Weekly Breaker at 1.3800.
2021/02/10
Terms used in my forecast:
-OB … Bearish Order Block
+OB … Bullish Order Block
FVG … Fair Value Gap
BISI … Buyside Imbalance Sellside Inefficiency
SIBI … Sellside Imbalance Buyside Inefficiency
Any others will be noted in comments.
DXY
D1
- Liquidity
Above 91.60
Below 90.35 … Next 90.05
Bias – Bearish
-OB 90.53
+OB 89.95
H1
-MB 90.44
+OB 90.00
Daily … Price has moved into the downside liquidity and retraced up to and H1 Bearish Mitigation Block at 90.44. I will be looking for price to continue lower, reaching for the H1 Bullish OB at 90.00. Price could also move up to the higher through the Daily Bearish OB at 90.53 and filling the SIBI created yesterday. My expectation is to the downside without the retracement though.
EURUSD
D1
- Liquidity
Above 1.2190
Below 1.1960
Bias – Bullish
-OB 1.1285 (Weekly)
+OB 1.2120
H1
-OB 1.2123
+OB 1.2120
Daily … Price has already bounced of the H1 Bullish OB at 1.2120 and then moved back to NYMO. As with the Dollar, price could drop from here and fill in the Daily BISI created yesterday before moving higher again. But for now, my expectation if for the dollar to move higher, without the retrace and reach for the Weekly Bearish OB at 1.2185.
GBPUSD
D1
- Liquidity
Above 1.4375
Below 1.3560
Bias – Bullish
-OB 1.4010 (Weekly)
FVG 1.3637 … this was the lower range prior to the move down. Will look to see if it contains again.
H1
-Bkr 1.4010
+OB 1.3760
Daily … Looking for the GBPUSD to move higher today. Price is sitting in a Weekly FVG with over 150 pips to the upside to close in the FVG. I will be looking for weakness on the dollar and a GBPUSD retrace back to the NYMO at 1.3822 before moving higher on the day.
2021/02/10 Recap
DXY – Bearish Day. Basically, a consolidation day around the NYMO and the H1 Bearish Mitigation Block at 90.44. No retrace into the Daily SIBI is very Bearish.
EURUSD – Neutral Day. Same movement as the Dollar. Price consolidated around the NYMO and the H1 Bullish OB at 1.2120. Also no retrace back into the daily BISI, which is very Bullish.
GBPUSD – Bullish Day. Although price ended up closing higher on the day, it was basically a consolidation on the GBPUSD just above the NYMO. And price stayed above the Weekly Breaker at 1.3800.
2021/02/11
Terms used in my forecast:
-OB … Bearish Order Block
+OB … Bullish Order Block
FVG … Fair Value Gap
BISI … Buyside Imbalance Sellside Inefficiency
SIBI … Sellside Imbalance Buyside Inefficiency
Any others will be noted in comments.
DXY
D1
- Liquidity
*Above 91.60
*Below 90.05
Bias – Bearish
-OB 90.53
+OB 89.95
H1
-OB 90.53 (Daily)
+OB 90.00
Daily … Price is still in consolidation around today’s and yesterday’s NYMO. Typically, this proceeds and expansion in either direction. Because I am bearish on the Dollar, I will be looking for a move up to the Daily Bearish OB at 90.53 then a move lower to takeout yesterday’s low and reach for the Daily Bullish OB at 89.95, where there is a large liquidity pool.
EURUSD
D1
Liquidity
Above 1.2190
Below 1.1960
Bias – Bullish
-OB 1.1285 (Weekly)
+BISI Low 1.2066 (Daily)
H1
-OB 1.2182 (Weekly)
+BISI Low 1.2066 (Daily) … +OB 1.2066
Daily … Retailers are looking at that daily doji candle and expecting a drop in price. What does that mean? The smart money will gladly take their trades and push price higher. I am bullish on the EURUSD and the confluence with the Dollar is very high. Therefore, I will be looking for a retrace down to the top of the Daily BISI and then move higher towards the Weekly Bearish OB at 1.2185.
GBPUSD
D1
Liquidity
Above 1.4375
Below 1.3560
Bias – Bullish
-OB 1.4010 (Weekly)
FVG 1.3637 … this was the lower range prior to the move down. Will look to see if it contains again.
H1
-Bkr 1.4010
+OB 1.3760 (Note that I have left the Monthly Bearish OB at this level on the chart. Price has not pass completely through it yet).
Daily … Price is down for the day so far, however, I expect a reversal and a move higher or also remain in consolidation with the Dollar and the EURUSD. The unemployment news due out at 8:30 EST could be the catalyst to cause price to move. Until then, I am not really looking for any trades. Need a definitive direction before looking for trades.
2021/02/12
No forecast for Friday February 12th.
2021/02/11 Recap
DXY – Bearish Day but mostly consolidation again. Price again hung out around the NYMO for most of the day. This morning, it moved up to the Daily Bearish OB at 90.53, where it remained until the London session pushed it higher. To start the NY session though, price is back at that OB.
EURUSD – Bullish Day but also in consolidation sitting just above the NYMO. In this morning’s London session, price has dropped in the Daily BISI.
GBPUSD – Bearish day. Price continued to drift lower throughout the day. No signs of a reversal until this morning in the London session where it may have made the low of the day … maybe.
EURO -WEEKLY TECHNICAL FORECAST February 15, 2021
- EUR / USD bounced back from the weakening to face the trend’s resistance.
- EUR / JPY looks like it could prepare for a breakout as bullish pressure increases.
2021/02/15
Terms used in my forecast:
-OB … Bearish Order Block
+OB … Bullish Order Block
FVG … Fair Value Gap
BISI … Buyside Imbalance Sellside Inefficiency
SIBI … Sellside Imbalance Buyside Inefficiency
Any others will be noted in comments.
DXY
D1
- Liquidity
Above 91.60
Below 90.05
Bias – Bearish
-OB 90.53 (Breached last week but never made it to the mean threshold)
+OB 89.95
H1
-OB 90.53 (Daily)
+OB 90.00
Weekly … The Weekly FVG rejection two weeks along with the touch last week and move down are bearish signals. I will be looking for the Dollar to move lower this week. Targeting the 89.00 level that has both Weekly and Monthly Bullish Rejection Blocks. It is possible to get down there this week but that would be a pretty big move.
Daily … Given the Weekly bearish bias, I am also bearish on the Daily. There is a ton of hourly liquidity below 90.25. will be looking for a move up to the H1 bearish Mitigation Block at 90.41 then down, taking the liquidity and targeting the H1 Bullish OB at 90.00.
EURUSD
D1
- Liquidity
Above 1.2150
Below 1.2080 (last week’s low) and then 1.1960
Bias – Bullish
-OB 1.1285 (Weekly)
+BISI Low 1.2066
H1
-OB 1.2185 (Weekly)
+OB 1.2124
Weekly … Looking for a bullish move higher up into the Weekly bearish OB at 1.2185.
Daily … Will be looking for the EURUSD to move down to the H1 bullish OB at 1.2124 and then move higher towards the Weekly Bearish OB at 1.2185.
GBPUSD
D1
- Liquidity
Above 1.4375
Below 1.3775
Bias – Bullish
-OB 1.4010 (Weekly)
FVG 1.3637 … this was the lower range prior to the move down.
H1
-Bkr 1.4010
+OB 1.3861
Weekly … Bullish on the Weekly, but a retrace down as low as 1.3760 is possible in order to fill in a FVG created this week. Will be looking for the GBPUSD to reach for the bearish OB at 1.4010. The GBP has been stronger than the EUR so could see a large expansion this week.
Daily … Also looking for the GBPUSD to move higher on the day. A retrace down to the H1 bearish OB at 1.3861 then move higher towards the Weekly bearish OB at 1.4010.
2021/02/15 Recap
DXY – Bearish Day. Couple strange prints on the dollar causing a couple spikes to show up on the chart. However, the day was down overall but mainly just consolidated around the NYMO. Price did retrace up to the H1 Bearish Mitigation Block at 90.41 and then moved lower but did not see significant movement until today.
EURUSD – Bullish Day but also in consolidation around the NYMO. Price did drop down the H1 Bullish OB at 1.2124 and bounced a little. Same as the dollar though, today is where we have seen price start to move higher.
GBPUSD – Strong bullish Day showing strength versus the EURUSD. After a strong move up in the morning, price also consolidated on this pair at the NYMO. This morning’s price has pushed higher though.
2021/02/16
DXY
D1
- Liquidity
Above 91.60
Below 90.05
Bias – Bearish
-OB 90.53 (Breached last week but never made it to the mean threshold)
+OB 89.95
H1
-MB 90.23
+OB 90.00
Daily … Price moved up and filled in the opening gap for the day and is now moving lower. I expect one of two scenarios to playout today … 1) Price pushes straight through to the D1 Bullish OB at 89.95. From there will need to watch price. 2) Prices drops the to the H1 OB at 90.00, moves back higher to the H1 MB at 90.23, and then drops to reach for the D1 OB at 89.95. In both scenarios, I will be looking for the retrace up to the H1 MB at 90.23.
EURUSD
D1
- Liquidity
Above 1.2150
Below 1.2080 (last week’s low) and then 1.1960
Bias – Bullish
-OB 1.1285 (Weekly)
+BISI Low 1.2066
H1
-OB 1.2185 (Weekly)
+NYMO 1.2140
Daily … With a strong move down in the dollar, I am expecting the EURUSD to move higher today, reaching for the Weekly Bearish OB at 1.2185. I will be looking for a retrace back to the NY Midnight Open at 1.2140 first. Although 1.2147 could also act as a support level too. M15 will provide more clarity.
GBPUSD
D1
- Liquidity
Above 1.4375
Below 1.3775
Bias – Bullish
-OB 1.4010 (Weekly)
FVG 1.3637 … this was the lower range prior to the move down.
H1
-OB 1.4010 (Weekly)
+OB 1.3909 … then at 1.3861
Daily … So far today, the GBPUSD has ben in consolidation, allowing the EURUSD to move higher. Price has also hit an H1 Bullish OB at 1.3909 and moved back to the NY Midnight Open. Price will either remain in consolidation, allowing the EURUSD to continue moving higher or break out above the NYMO and reach for the Weekly OB at 1.4010.
2021/02/16 Recap
DXY – Bullish Day. Yesterdays drop into the liquidity area was a stop run before moving higher. Price blew through the H1 OB and D1 OB, moving up into the Daily SIBI. This is a key area for the dollar and where I expected it to move last week.
EURUSD – Bearish Day. Same as the dollar. Price ran the Buy stops above last weeks highs, then moved sharply lower. It originally found support in the H1 BISI but ran into the weekly opening price and was rejected lower. Price is now in the Daily BISI, showing strong confluence with the dollar.
GBPUSD – Neutral Day. The GBPUSD had a couple nice moves, but mainly held in consolidation to allow the EURUSD to run. Price finally broke through the H1 OB at 1.3909 and reached for the H1 OB at 1.3861 where it found support and moved back up to the NYMO price.
2021/02/17
DXY
D1
- Liquidity
Above 91.60
Below 90.05
Bias – Bearish
-BISI High 90.90
+OB 89.95
H1
-OB 90.94
+OB 90.57 (weak) and then +OB 90.00
Caution on the Trading View DXY Chart … It looks like there are misprints and incorrect reporting of Daily open and close recently. The daily close is being taken from the NY 14:00 candle and the open from the NY 19:00 … ignoring the price action in-between.
Daily … If the dollar drops back out of the Daily BISI, this will be very bullish and will be looking for price to continue lower seeking prior lows. Today I’m looking for one of two scenarios … 1) Dollar moves up to the Bearish H1 OB at 90.94, filling in the Daily SIBI, and then moves lower. 2) Dollar retraces down to the NY Midnight Open at 90.64 or the H1 Bullish OB at 90.57 and then moves up to the H1 Bearish OB at 90.94, also filling the Daily SIBI and then moving lower.
EURUSD
D1
- Liquidity
Above 1.2150
Below 1.2080 (last week’s low) and then 1.1960
Bias – Bullish
-OB 1.1285 (Weekly)
+BISI Low 1.2066
H1
-MB 1.2097 (already hit today) and then -OB 1.2152
+NYMO 1.2056
Daily … The Daily BISI has been filled. I now expect price to move higher and am bullish. Price could go as low as the H1 OB at 1.2056, but then price should move higher. To turn long term bearish, price would need to move below 1.1960. So today I will be looking for price to move higher from that 1.2056 level. Note that there will be some resistance based on Hourly levels at 1.2084, NYMO, and 1.2097. The only significant one could be the Breaker at 1.2084 where price could reject and then make that move lower toward 1.1960 … not expecting this though.
GBPUSD
D1
- Liquidity
Above 1.4375
Below 1.3775
Bias – Bullish
-OB 1.4010 (Weekly)
FVG 1.3637 … this was the lower range prior to the move down.
H1
-OB 1.4010 (Weekly)
+OB 1.3861
Daily … So far today, price has been contained between the NY Midnight Open at 1.3892 and H1 Bullish OB at 1.3861. On the EURGBP, the GBP is showing strength. I am expecting the price on the GBPUSD to move higher from the H1 OB and reach for the Weekly OB at 1.4010.
2021/02/17 Recap
DXY – Bullish Day. The dollar did indeed move up the H1 Bearish OB at 90.94 … unfortunately I was looking for a retrace first AND was looking for price to be rejected at this level. The strong retail sales number drove the dollar higher than expected. However, price went through it and has since consolidate sideways to lower, staying on top of the Daily SIBI.
EURUSD – Bearish Day. Price also drove through the Daily BISI and hit the H1 Bullish OB at 1.2056, stalled, then dropped sharply. Not at all what was expected, again because of the US retail sales numbers.
GBPUSD – Bearish Day. Price stayed right around the Bullish hourly OB at 1.3861 and the Weekly open price for most of the day and into this morning.
2021/02/18
DXY
D1
- Liquidity
Above 91.60
Below 90.05
Bias – Bearish
-BISI High 90.90
+OB 89.95
H1
-OB 90.94
+OB 90.57 (weak) and then +OB 90.00
Daily … Will today be a slight retrace before a continued moved higher or will price return to its bearish bias? Either way, I am bearish today on the dollar. Will be looking for it possible retrace up to the bearish H1 Mitigation Block at 90.86 and then continue moving lower towards the Bullish H1 OB at 90.57.
EURUSD
D1
- Liquidity
Above 1.2170
Below 1.2025 (yesterday’s low)
Bias – Bullish
-BISI Low 1.2066 (flipped from yesterday)
+D1 OB 1.1960
H1
-Brkr 1.2084
+MB 1.2049
Daily … Looking for the EURUSD to continue higher from its morning run. Would like to see it retrace back down through the H1 FVG to the Mitigation Block at 1.2049 and then move up towards the H1 Breaker at 1.2084.
GBPUSD
D1
- Liquidity
Above 1.3950 (this week’s high)
Below 1.3775
Bias – Bullish
-OB 1.4010 (Weekly)
FVG 1.3792 (Weekly FVG Low)
H1
-OB 1.4010 (Weekly)
+OB 1.3871
Daily … Big move higher already today. Expecting that to continue and take out this week’s high made on Tuesday. Will be looking for a retrace back down to the H1 Mitigation Block at 1.3871 and then a move to take the high.
2021/02/18 Recap
DXY – Bearish Day. Price dropped to the H1 Bearish OB at 90.57 and consolidated there for most of the day.
EURUSD – Bullish Day. Price hit the Bearish H1 Breaker at 1.2084, retraced back down to the H1 FVG, where it found support, and then moved higher on the day. Did not get the full retracement I was looking for, however, the M15 did provided a couple trade entries yielding 20-25 pips.
GBPUSD – Bullish Day. Price was just too strong today and did not retrace to the hourly level I was ideally looking for. However, the H1/M15 did provide a nice entry later in the day with a Mitigation Block on the hourly and confluence on the M15 with a Bullish OB. 50+ pip move.
2021/02/19
DXY
D1
- Liquidity
Above 91.05 (This week’s high)
Below 90.10 (this week’s low)
Bias – Bearish
-BISI High 90.90
+OB 89.95
H1
-OB 90.53 and NYMO 90.57
+OB 90.00
Daily … Looking for the Dollar to form the low of the week today. Will be looking for a retest of the H1 SIBI and then a push lower to make the low of the week and reach for the D1 OB at 89.95.
EURUSD
D1
- Liquidity
Above 1.2170 (this week’s high)
Below 1.2025 (this week’s low)
Bias – Bullish
- BISI high 1.2109 (expecting to be weak) … next OB 1.2185 (Weekly)
- OB 1.1960
H1
-OB 1.2152
+OB 1.2097 and NYMO 1.2093
Daily … big move up in price already, but I believe there is still more upside. Looking for price to retest the low of the H1 SIBI that price is currently in. Ideally, first move up to the H1 OB at 1.2152, then retrace back to the low of the SIBI and then reach for the week high and Weekly bearish OB at 1.2185.
GBPUSD
D1
- Liquidity
Above 1.3950 (this week’s high)
Below 1.3775
Bias – Bullish
-OB 1.4010 (Weekly)
FVG 1.3792 (Weekly FVG Low)
H1
-OB 1.4010 (Weekly)
+MB 1.3871
Daily … Price has made a ne w high for the week and filled in the Weekly FVG already today. It is sitting just below the Weekly OB at 1.4010. Potentially looking for price to be contained between the weekly OB and the NY Midnight Open. This will let the EURUSD run higher while the Dollar runs lower.
2021/02/19 Recap
DXY – Bearish Day. Price did not make down low enough to form the low of the week. Came close … only short by 5 cents. Then price returned to the H1 SIBI.
EURUSD – Bullish Day. We did not get the shot up to the H1 OB at 1.2152 that I was looking for before price retraced lower. As a result, we also did not make the high of the week.
GBPUSD – Bullish Day. Price did reach above the Weekly Bearish OB at 1.4010 and then retraced a bit lower. It ended the day in bullish OB. We will see what happens on Monday.
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2021/02/22
DXY
D1
- Liquidity
Above 91.05
Below 90.10
Bias – Bearish
-BISI Low 90.53
+OB 89.95
H1
-MB 90.53 and NYMO 90.57
+OB 90.00
Weekly … Expecting the D1 SIBI to act as resistance and keep the dollar lower this week. Looking for a move below 90.00 and eventually down to 89.00.
Daily … The dollar already moved up to the bottom end of the Daily SIBI and the Hourly Mitigation Block at 90.53 and has since moved back down past the NY Midnight Open. Will be looking for it to continue dropping and reach for the hourly OB at 90.00 and daily OB at 89.95.
EURUSD
D1
- Liquidity
Above 1.2170
Below 1.2025
Bias – Bullish
-OB 1.2185 (Weekly)
+RB 1.2041
H1
-OB 1.2152
+BISI low 1.2066 … then +MB 1.2049
Weekly … The dollar and EURUSD have been moving in unison. Until shown otherwise, expecting that to continue and reach for the liquidity above 1.2170 and the Weekly ON at 1.2185.
Daily … The EURUSD has already broken back above the NYMO. Looking for a retrace back down to the NYMO which is also a newly formed hourly bullish OB in the middle of an hourly FVG. Then move up a move up to the Hourly ON at 1.2152, completely filling the SIBI leftover from last week.
GBPUSD
D1
- Liquidity
Above 1.4375 … however, there are 3 Daily SIBI’s prior to that level that can also draw price up
Below 1.3830
Bias – Bearish
-OB 1.4010 (Weekly) … hit last week and today already
+FVG 1.3951
H1
-OB 1.4010 (Weekly)
+FVG High 1.3958 (Daily)
Weekly … With the GBPUSD stronger than the EURUSD over the past couple weeks AND the EURGBP also showing GBP strength, I will be expecting a move to reach for the liquidity above 1.4375. That is a big move for one week … lets see how far we can go.
Daily … Price already dropped down to an area of a bullish OB at 1.3975 and then moved higher, also above the NYMO. The NYMO should act as support then target 1.4050 and 1.4075.
GBP traders should be aware the Prime Minister will today at 1530hrs UK time outline in Parliament the UK’s exit strategy from the on-going covid lock-down - potentially a high impact news event for the pound.