If this is a correction then we should see a leg down…hopefully
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Can you shed a bit more light on why you think EURUSD is heading down? How did you formulate the potential move down (everything to the right of your diagonal)?
Shorting with that reverse head and shoulders staring you in the face?
You’re braver than me
Inverse head and shoulders generally tends to be part of a correction - consists of three legs. I would be happier with the short at 1.1725, then price is making a lower low
The EURUSD is stuck just below the 200 day EMA and the 1.1800 level with low volatility. A breakout of the 1.1800 level could accelerate the bullish trend to the 1.2000 level.
The growth of EUR/USD seems limited to 1.1800.
Closing all the positions in two hours, because of uncertainty and volatility, surrounding FOMC rate decision.
If the rate is risen, would that most likely signal a down trend? I’m not trading today, just learnin!
EUR/USD: Yesterday’s rate hike wasn’t a big surprise - it was almost fully calculated in the price of the pair. But, today’s 2,3 German inflation is another thing - I wonder how would markets intrpret the data…
1.1633 is an important support level for EUR/USD. If the pair manages to pierse it, the next target is 1.1600.
The Euro lost a lot this week, with no important data I think the direction will continue to point South at the most until the NFPs next Friday.
I took a cheeky little EUR/USD 1:1 short, prompted by the bearish engulfing candle on the Daily a few days ago, rejecting the 200ema. Hit my TP, +1% on the account. I’m happy to pop in and out of the market trading counter trend if there are a few reasons to do so. Overall risking 1% it pays off and adds handily to the bottom line.
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EUR/USD had a bearish momentum last week, making the bottom at 1.1569. The downward rally was triggered by the bearish pin bar at the daily EMA 200, formed on September 24, but stopped at the trendline. The outlook is descending to test 1.1530 in a near perspective. A clear breakthrough and daily closure below this zone could open the doors to 1.1430 before the target in the 1.1300 area this week. The first resistance is 1.1650, whose breakthrough may interrupt the bear phase. But the longer the couple stays below 1.1725, I prefer the bearish scenario.
Hey SimonTemplar,
Are you still in your trade after taking profit, or did you get out? What are your thoughts for upcoming week? Does Italy debt and the EU budget police play any into your decision making?
Thanks all!
Hello!
No, I am out. I am largely a technical trader, and I tend to prefer a clear trend, preferably on a higher TF. If you look at the Daily chart for the past six months it doesn’t at a glance look great for my style of trading, and that is generally a pretty good indicator for me of whether I will find decent setups.
At the time I took this trade, you could have said that the Daily chart was cycling up - there was a low on 8th August (which in itself was a retest of a pretty good level from March 2017 and again in 2016), where we got a good rejection. Then Price cycled up, hit a peak on 28th August, then cycled down, hit a low (albeit not particularly conclusive one) in early September, then gave us another high on 24th September, which was also an engulfing bar. That cluster of Resistance bars from around 20th-26th September are also right on the 200ema, plus this is in itself a decent level (look at Price on 9th July and around the same time in June). So I was happy that there would some sort of retracement. However, in the other column - the ‘reasons not to trade this’ column - the EMA’s were pretty flat, as I have said previously we were in a short (but assertive) uptrend, and also RSI was not overbought. So I was mindful that Price might simply retrace back down, then hit the next natural higher low and revert to its upward trajectory. Also, the 50ema was sitting around the zone I would expect that to happen, plus I have 1.1605 on my chart as a bit of a level. And, as you say, there are a few potentially nasty fundmentals out there at the moment on this Pair.
In that context, this could be seen as a countertrend trade. I set my targets on those more conservatively. So I had a 1:1 R:R, that Price was hit, so my trade closed automatically for a 1% gain on my account. A few of those a month would be fine on its own, so I didn’t think (for the reasons I stated above) that this was one where I wanted to push my luck. Take the profit, be happy, roll on. The odd quick in and out is a natural partner to my slightly longer-term trades.
I hope that that gives you some insight to my thinking.
ST
The Euro dipped a lot today. I’d be looking to go long at 1.14-1.1390.
Way more than I was expecting! Thank you so much for that thorough review. I’ve got to do a better job of looking further back and not getting stuck in the here and now. I’m super fresh, and I’ve only been following EURUSD for a couple weeks now. So I’ve got a lot to learn. So, step back, take a broader view of the pair. Thanks for that!
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No problem!
It really depends what sort of trader you are, but personally I am a technical trader, coming at it from a Support & Resistance viewpoint first and foremost. So with any chart, the first thing I do is scan for something which might look like a setup - for instance, in this case, a pin bar rejecting a level. Second thing I do is squeeze up the chart and throw some obvious levels of S&R on there, literally draw some horizontal lines on the chart. Then throw on the ema’s, maybe some Fib, and see whether the pin bar is still in an interesting place.
Sounds easy when I say it fast, but it takes a lot of practice. It does work when you get there, though, and you start to see it as parts of an overall picture.
ST
Yes will be interesting to see if we can get down there. I have had 1.1530 on my chart for ages (it has been a great level several times, check it out in 2016 and then a big retest last year), hence I am out at the moment as it could go either way. I’ll be very interested in 1.1400 or so if we get there, though.
Euro/usd found support at 1.1500.