when industrial production results are released it is worth looking at the performance of mining companies etc… to provide a basis and guide for the direction of the market.
is it worth looking at industrial production?
What do you think about this Friday NFP results? do you think a lower NFP will be better because it will reduce the chance of inflation increasing? or do you think a higher result will increase the chance of the FED to increase rates leading to higher ROI. interesting…
Most industrial production has no direct impact to forex. It also depends on the country’s nature. There are countries focus on technology, financial, production and commodity. For country that depends on production of good/service, the manufacturing PMI will be important especially the country involve in multinational trading (export / import)
The route should be Production effect to stock market then stimulate forex enhanced by speculation.
About NFP, i really have no idea, too complex. I can say, we are all the victim of our economy system, The end of current economic system will come to a chaotic ending. Our government will do anything to prolong the system life span only because there is no alternative. You can google economic season, you will know we are coming to economic winter.
High NFP good for citizen, bad for country during high inflation period.
Low NFP bad for citizen, good for country’s indicator.
I really have no idea which one to choose. During high inflation period, high NFP will lead to industry collapse, cost of living will compete with cost production endlessly. We need a figure like Batman to safe Gotham City, will it be?
To save a country from inflation, government has to increase rate. It will be burden to industry and they have to cut cost. One of the result is lay off. Lay off leads to lower NFP. During this period citizen will suffer a bit, until the inflation is good, the interest rate will be lowered. It will stimulate the industry and higher NFP will be needed.
By the story, you can conclude when a lower or higher NFP is needed. If higher interest rate can’t hold the hike of inflation … we are doomed. 
Read the article bellow about what will be happened 
Really like the perspective. i totally i agree with you market reactions are not just about the numbers but also about how they compare to expectations and what else is happening in the world
When the news is released, you’re the last one to know. Market is forward-looking. The wagers have already been placed. See how the bond market discounts future price action in CME’s FedWatch tool.
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
To gather market sentiment, watch CNBC or BloombergTV. See the key news relelases they’re talking about. Industrial Production isn’t the highlight right now. Lately Inflation data, Fed policy has been in the spotlight.
GDP means nothing Australian gdp was bad during Covid and yet strong Aussie dollar since November . A big bull trend started in November for eur usd and others, so eur usd is bullish long term still
sometimes what really moves the market is how the news compares to what traders were expecting. also there are always a lot of factors that effect price not only news.
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That would be uneventful if it came to that . I believe inflation may start to slow down after US NFP forecasts and lower ISM indicating lower productivity.
This is my perspective of the situation may see a rate cut but if inflation still hikes this could be bad.
Inflation is obviously lagging and may take a while to come down like what happens with aus.
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I also hope there will be a solution to solve current situation. But, world economic is too complex, so many parties involve in to protect their interest.
Like japan, they have problem with the population growth, if there is no solution, the end of japan will be coming soon. Problem with population’s growth will eat up country’s economic foundation. Population is one of the key to control inflation. Less people, less demand. It will lead a deflation. Deflation will improve a country balance, but it will ruin the economic.
When certain condition comes, our society will naturally react to maintain balance. We need to keep moderation in every aspect, before extremity is used to restore balance.
You may read articles about “Economic Harmony Theory”, it helps you to understand everything better. More people knows, probably an idea will come out to solve our biggest issue: Our impending Economic Chaos.
I wanted to ask another question more about lot size and leverage when eneterint your lot size on MT4/MT5 what does the lot size actually mean for instance 1.34,0.34,3.45 what does that signify?
Hi @tomo22, Lot is trading unit. In CFD (such as forex), we trade contract.
1 Lot means 1 contract. If you trade 1.34 contract.
Lot is similar to you go to a restaurant and ask 1 portion meal or 1/2 portion of meal. Portion identical with lot.
Next, there is contract value. It will be bounded with your account type.
There are
- Micro Account. 1 Lot = 1 000 unit (Forex).
- Standard Account. 1 Lot = 100 000 unit (Forex).
- Institution Account. 1 Lot = 1 000 000 unit (Forex).
So if you are opening a standard account, you will trade 1 Lot for 100 000 currency unit.
Next leverage means how broker appreciate your account. 1:100 meaning every 1 currency unit (USD, EUR, AUD) you put in your account, it will be valued 100 same currency unit. The purpose of leverage to enhance your trading ability (it will enhance your loss as well).
I just simplify one of the effect: if you open 1 standard account with leverage 1:100, you put 100 USD into your account. That means the max. lot size will be
Max Lot = Deposit x Leverage : Contract Size
100 USD x 100 : 100 000 = 0.1 Lot.
If you want to trade more that 0.1 … you have to put more money or, increase the leverage.
For example you have 100 USD, but you want to trade 0.5 lot. The only way is increase your leverage to
Max Lot = Deposit x Leverage : Contract Size
100 x Leverage : 100 000 = 0.5 Lot
Leverage = 500 ===> 1:500
This is part of money management, related to trading methodology and trading profile. Pay attention to your instrument contract size, different instrument has different contract size, example: forex 1:100 000, XAU 1:100, USOIL 1:1000, etc
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Thanks bro. I just opened a standard acct. I’ve been demo trading for abit and I wanna take my first trade with the NFP news. You recommend I study money management first then proceed to real trading or take this one trade for the NFP tonight?
Hi @tomo22, I always recommend beginner to know their risk profile first.
You can start by using the smallest account that possible. For example you can try micro account. Some brokers provide this type of account.
As beginner, know your limit first. My recommendation is use 1/200 your total asset to experience the greed and fear. For example, your total asset is 10k USD, the first try use only 10 000 / 200 = 50 USD.
They way I did, I started with 1000 with 0.01 lot, max loss per day 2-5 USD each position. I wasn’t use percentage. A beginner shouldn’t use percentage to start, it will hurt our learning process.
Wish for your success 
Hi are you able to explain to me how leverage actually works. For instance if I’m trying to take a trade with a balance of $50 AUD how come I’m only able to use a lot max of 0.01 and not 0.10? is this a limit of leverage?
or soley because my capital is too low?
how are you to increase your leverage? once u start an acct isn’t it just set to a standard leverage of 1:100 or 1:500 how are to decrease that leverage/increase? is there an option on mt5
Hi @tomo22, the purpose of leverage is increasing your trading capability.
For example, when you trading in stock market. You have money 500 AUD, you can only buy max 500 AUD worth of stock. If there is a stock with price 5 AUD / share … you can buy 1 lot (1 lot = 100 shares). Can you buy a stock with 5.1 AUD / share? You can’t because your don’t have enough money.
Leverage is introduced to increase your trading power. For example, your broker give you leverage 1:50. That means every single of your dollar will be appreciated 50x. When you put 500 USD, broker will give you trading power 500 x 50 = 25 000 AUD. So you can buy more lot. You can buy 50 Lot instead of 1 lot.
At this moment the concept of leverage only apply to CFD, contract based instrument.
When you only have 50 AUD. Let say you are australian, base on ASIC the common leverage is 1:30. Some can give you 1:50. If you have passed as profesional trader, they will allow you 1:200 even 1:500. With Pepperstone I have leverage 1:500.
Let say you have 50 AUD. Let say you are an Australian, they will give you 1:30. That means your trading power is 50 x 30 = 1500 AUD. By having this amount, you can only trade max 1500 AUD. Because in standard account the smallest fraction is 1000 AUD which is equal to 0.01 lot, you can only trade 0.01 lot. If the broker allow 3 digits decimal, you can trade 0.015 lot. Since most broker will allow only 2 digit, you have no choice but 0.01 lot.
The only way to increase your trading power, put more money or increase your leverage.
In ASIC regulated broker, the only way to increase your leverage by upgrade your account to be professional trader. You need to show a proof that you have such capability by showing your asset, trading experiences, amount of money you are currently managing. You have at least been managing 3 millions of funds to be qualified. You need to show a solid proof and trading records. No other ways.
Otherwise, you register in an offshore broker. They will provide very big leverage, even they can give you 1 : unlimited. We can trade stupidly 100 lot by only put 1 AUD 
… this is really jack pot if your position align with market. I had done this before for fun. But most of the time will got stopped-out in seconds. ( I put 10 USD then got 100 USD, after encountered many losses )
IC Markets Standard Account only gives leverage 1:30
Compare to ICMarkets Global offshore gives 1:1000
Thanks @TYGMedia really helped.
Just some food for thought of this POTENTIAL down trend and POSSIBLE head and shoulders formation on USD/JPY… was heading on a massive uptrend hasn’t been that high since 2008 I believe!
Confirmed reversal from inverse hammer at top of trend big indication
Here’s some of my technical analysis. quite new so sorry for mistakes if any.
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I rarely take Head and Shoulder, Double Top / Bottom into consideration. They are not reliable. I will rely more on market structure base on my experience.
Base my trading stats, the red zone is the high probability setup, around 75-80% win rate. While others will get 50-65% win rate.
I dont really trade JPY pair, it’s too slow for now. Perhaps after BOJ becomes more active I will pay attention more