- The long-term uptrend is showing signs of exhaustion
- The short-term trend in EUR/USD is down
- The price has reached a first resistance level
My entry after NFP release: P: 1.4635, SL 1.4775, TP 1.4400
Analysis by Roberto Jbili
Park Capital Management
Italy, Milano 15-09-09
Tel: 0039 3272386209
THE MARKETS
THE Crud oil trading is dominating the Global markets, with dow reaching 10.000 levels, it will be an perfect timing to some traders to exit before the other when dow will reach 10.000, the markets will need time and little beat correction before having year end trading above 10.000.
The exit of some traders will cause oil drop to 64 and Euro drop to 1.42 before an rally to 1.52 with oil to 88 $.
OIL & EURO & Politics
Russia Again will not accept the period in which the Oil will start the drop and the bear market rally of oil in its first time of 2 will finish.
The blue marked patterns on the Euro/USD Chart and the direct drop of Oil, may mean that Euro will not drop with Oil, Euro will be up with Gold on politicl tension and OIl will go down to ignore terrorism and political tension influence inside the Street House.
Oil will go down on Demand since bear market rally will end among with negative Economic data which will confirm the return of Credit problems, industrial slow and other market problems.
SPECIAL CHART /MICRCON/
The Markets & Economy.
Microcn as will be noted will remain one of stock chart in from which we can predict the USD direction as tech Currecncy… since this chart explain us the timing and duration of next technology cycle and when the tech cycle will start and how much the bear market of commodities will last.
As the USD is an currency of Export countries, and the Euro will remain an commodity country, and this is the war about pricing commodities in Euro.
The USA export everything and at large the Technology, Cisco represent the GDP of USA and play an big role in Globalk politics, when we look to charts like Micron we can predict the Euro Direction from this charts, since the USA is the technology currency.
The Below Chart of Micron explain the commodity cycle and the Tech cycle.
The 3 towers represent the close of technology cycle, and after the drop of 2 pattern noted, we will start the big pattern which will be the technology cycle as a whole, This chart will remain the best of 2009.
EURO/USD Connection
I can call the 3 towers chart as similar of the Euro/USD in fisrt tower it show the drop when soros entered the market with euro high to 1.33 then drop when he sold the Euro, then high to 1.37 in the 2 tower, is the same pattern in the mentioned chart.
the 3 tower represent the high record of Euro to 1.60. we remain in the 3 tower to confirm the drop to 1.25 levels…
This chart confirm Oil direction and USA economy direction, MSFT Chart as largest tech empire will indicate the same.
The Chart or the traders which bought the Micron stocks will indicate USD direction (investors) but also importers and export markets.
the chart was not clear on the upside for the drop in the 3 tower doing to 11 Septmber attacks price into value of Futute export, MU was not going up to make Fibo Rally for the drop from 100 to below 20. (see pattern of 1995 END).
MU was in need to go more higher like the pattern in 1995.
The market rally or the pattern of tech cycle will start after thye 2 pattern of drop, this mean that the pattern of drop will take same time of the pattern of rise of Micron, with this chart we built market timing for the next 12 years.
THE TRADING
AS WELL EXPLAINED IN ABOVE CHARTS, WE ADVISE THE FOLLOWING TRADES:
OIL
From 64 levels to 88 then 75 then 100 $ to finish the first bear market rally.
EUR/USD
As predicited before the target will be with oil to 1.52 when oil will reach 88$.
The Euro will go up from 1.42 levels in the short term.
MICRON
Short term it will be building to above 10, for Medum term we like to short Micron from the level above 10 to below 5.
Call options on Micron Chart from below 5 $ to above 100 $ when Nasdaq will join Dow and SAP for new record high.
Roberto Jbili
Forex Signals*
What could drive entities from Oil is the perceived threat of increased regulation by governments. You don’t do that to the “kingpins” in Oil.
These entities will just move to OTC transaction and find other ways to hide their involvement in Crude Oil PA. So in fact there will be less transparency instead of more as envisioned by regulators.
A EURO rally to 1.52 would mean a major impact on Gold to the UPSIDE. I doubt very much whether the Bullion Banks would agree on that one especially with QE about to be widened by the Obama administration.
Russia Again will not accept the period in which the Oil will start the drop and the bear market rally of oil in its first time of 2 will finish.
Russia couldn’t care less because of OTC transactions in Oil to China for $19/barrel excluding tariffs.
Neither would it bother Iran and Nigeria because their selling Oil OTC to China at $13/barrel and $6 + $6 (licensing fee)/barrel.
What’s driving PA in Oil is leverage caused by [B]unlimited[/B] QE and [U]NOT[/U] geopolitics.
QE has given Oil de-facto currency status taking it from Gold.
[B]update[/B]
I put my word where my mouth is so to speak. 
I make an exception here in disclosing 2 of my long term trades…
[B]EUR/USD[/B]
1,4715 SHORT
T/P 1.2015
S/L 1.5025
[B]CRUDE OIL[/B]
66.02 LONG
T/P 72.30
S/L 62.87
We shall see.
Wow 1.2015? What makes you long term USD positive?
Shouldn’t increasing budget deficit /trade deficit and possibly reduced reserve currency status should send the USD lower in the long term?
[B]trustFX[/B]
When I trade EUR/USD long term I base my decision not only on fundamentals but on it’s correlation with other instruments.
In this case Gold. Because EUR correlates with Gold. There are other unique factors involved in this correlation in regards to Bullion Banks.
With this trade it was the Gold factor and what that is likely going to do to the EUR.
Because Gold is always full of surprises.
thanks. always good to see an other perspective / idea.
At the moment USD and Gold only know one direction 
[B]trustFX[/B]
This breakout in Gold has occured [B]without[/B] the USD breaking down.
USDX below 75.912 would be considered a USD breakdown out of it’s range.
That 75.912 USDX range needs to be broken for Gold to take off.
Also EURUSD 1.4810 needs to be broken.
We haven’t seen that. And I doubt very much we will.
Well, we are there now…
USDX 75.95
EUR/USD 1.4801
Gold…is pushing $1060
Now we just wait and see what’s going to unfold…:D:D:D
Very interesting times we live in. 
Usd still weak!!
eur/usd; crossing the 1st resistance look for the next level at 1.4845
protect yourself around 1.4685
The 1.4810 did hold.
See what happens in Asia later on.
well, when the last USD bear has been convinced to give up his/her negative bias and goes long, that is the moment of the reversal 
I took a very (!) small EUR USD short position because the previous high could not be broken and we might carve out a double top. I am careful here, because this is against the main trend. If it works, I might add.
Well…USDX bounced again to 76.29. Gold retraced back to 1045.
Euro back to that 1.4715 level. If you shorted around 1.4810…nice profit.
right, of cause I did not catch exactly top and bottom. nevertheless, I chickened out once I passed 40 pips. Got burned too much goning against the trend.
Have a 2nd trade running, which feels much better at the moment:
http://forums.babypips.com/gbpusd/30057-gbp-usd-short-trade.html
[B]trustFX[/B]
Got burned too much goning against the trend.
Depends what way you look at it.
That key USDX range isn’t broken. As long as that doesn’t happen I am not worried.
It is my true convicton that the EUR will go south to hell and the USDX will go north.
Seriously, I cannot imagine that countries [central banks] around the world will just sit there and watch the world reserve currency USD break down without doing anything.
Also, I can’t imagine that Gold will be allowed to breakout.
That’s the way I look at it and positioned myself.
Guess the Chinese powers have a pretty strong opinion on that as well. However, I won’t make a bet on the timing of a reversal … and it’s still a long way to 1.60 Unless I see a lower low I skip … of cause if it crashes, the lower low might be below 1.38
Seriously, appreciate your your perspective. Hope it plays out well.
And with the rising Dow at the end of the NY session came the reversal and a Hammer in the 1hr chart (EUR/USD)
On the other hand GBP got absolutely “hammered” all day :D:D:D
Indeed, interesting times.
Have a good weekend, all.
hi, everyone. i just signed up. what i see is…
eur/usd 1.4610 downside potential but 1.4530 if it breaks thru 1.4610 sun/mon; 1.4850 upside potential if it breaks thru 1.4794 sun/mon.