EURUSD broke higher during the course of yesterday session, but found enough resistance near the 1.29 level to turn things back around also the 10 day moving average is pushing the pair down. However, if we close below the 1.28 level, this pair will continue to drop from there. Rallies on short-term charts will continue to offer selling opportunities all the way to the 1.30 level as far as we can see.
EUR / USD started to rise yesterday but had no strength to overcome the resistance of 1.2900 and fell closing the day nearly unchanged.
The yields of the USA and expectations of interest rates subsided yesterday and the dollar was mixed in trading usually without trend.
Just to show Iâm not all talk. Hereâs what Iâm looking at. First long term back to Dec 2011
Clearly bears are in control heading to the 23.6 Fib level at 1.27310
Zooming in to the four hour and I have no reason to think any different.
You can see my resistance zone. The price might break above this but in such a strong trend I would call it a false break until confirmed. This is just my practice account, got a small short on. Seeing if I can get a 1:10 RR trade.
EUR/USD appears to be in consolidation again but the doji candlestick in the daily filter chart could be an indication that it will continue its descent if it breaks below the supprt at 1.2810. However, the bearish trend appears to be exhausted, so I am not sure how reliable that signal is.
I am always looking to be educated. How do you come to the conclusion that the bearish trend is about exhausted? I still see plenty of room to move.
Viper fx and his 250 followers are a bunch of undecided traders.
When viper enters the market you can see a bump up +27pips for about 40min.
He enters 0.5 or 1 LOT. That wouldnât be much, but the loosers behind him multiplies that.
And there was another account that was deleted just after I posted on BP about it.
That was much worse. 29LOT for starting the day. And they enter, exit, enter, exit, ⌠and so on, until a fatty gets stuck at -50 pips.
the price is keep breaking all the support levels even 1.2800 what seemed to be strong support on the weekly chart
I guess now 1.27 area become the ultimate target, getting closer to Goldman & Sachs forecast.
The Wednesday 9/24 session brought a new low for the current downtrend allowing me to drop my stop down to just above the 9/23 high as planned. So this particular position is in the break-even. I wonât have the opportunity to groom that stop any further until after the close of the 9/26 session this Friday. If the price can remain below the 9/19 high of 1.2930, until the Tuesday 9/30 close, I will see the 7-day high drop to break-even, a very welcome sign for this trade.
As of this writing, we are only 25 pips away from 2013-03-28 low. Stay short.
EURUSD fell during the course of yesterday session, breaking below the 1.28 level. However, the 1.28 level is only a short-term support, as far as long-term charts are concerned the significant amount of support is all the way down to the 1.2750 level. The pair seems as if itâs ready to try to break down. Rallies however would offer nice selling opportunities as we will more than likely have to pick away at this massive support region.
So much like old news now. Trading at 1.27110 last I looked.
Not only did EUR/USD break below 1.2800 but it reached 1.2700 and broke below that level. We are seeing some pullback now bit the question is what happens next. Will this pair continue on its way down or will we see some correction first?
The dollar is now trading higher against all its major peers.
The EURUSD approached the low levels of November 2012, as ECB President Mario Draghi, speaking at a conference organized by the central bank of Lithuania within 100 days of entry into the euro this country.
To answer that question, we have to first define âcorrectionâ. Have a look at this:
In this image, we can see the decline in the EURUSD from the beginning of August until today. I have indicated the 3, 7, and 10 day highs and lows. As you can see, all three low lines were on top of each other for every day except the 4th of August, the 15th and 16th of August, and the 12th, 15th, and 16th of September. This is, of course, because in a down trend as prices make new 10-day lows, they by definition make new 3 and 7 day lows.
But look at those few key areas where the 3-day low comes off of the others. We can use those simple technical observations as a definition for a correction in a trend. In a downward trend, a disparity between the 3-day low and the 10-day low can be viewed as a correction confirmed by a resumption of the trend when a new 10-day low is made after that temporary disparity.
When the 3-day low came 50 pips above the 7 and 10 day low on 9/16, I entered an order to sell any break below that. Of the 7 trading sessions since that break, only one did not make a new 10-day low (in fact those are new 100-day lows).
One could have taken that same opportunity on 8/18. Using the 10-day high as his/her stop, a trader would have only risked 86 pips on the way in and would still be in the trade at about 610 pips positive with the stop on the 10-day high currently locking in about 350.
So definitions:
Correction: A disparity between the 3 and 10 day extremes (lows in a downward trend) followed by a new 10-day extreme.
Resumption of Trend: New 10-day extreme after a correction.
How to trade? Take on a position with the trend just outside of the 3-day extreme that is disparate from the 10-day. Use the 3-day extreme as an initial stop (or the 7 or 10-day, I have a lot of ideas about how to choose which is best).
price is oversold on the daily but we still see more downtrend
How do you identify trend?
Are suggesting fibre is going to stall? Rephrase, is it stalling?
Best
Nope- not suggesting anything.
Just like asking people how they identify trends.
Jake
Well explanation, thanks for sharing your ideas.
Great analysis arbitrager.
Cheers man.