EURUSD initially fell during the course of yesterday session, but found enough support just below the 1.27 level to turn things back around and form a hammer pattern. The hammer of suggests that we could get a bounce. If we can get above the 1.28 handle, the market will then head to the 1.30 level, with the area continuing to offer significant resistance.
It is just some correction on 4 hours and it is resist from upper channel line now. To me, 1.263x the place it wants to go more likely.
There is indeed a hammer candlestick in the daily EUR/USD filter chart which suggests that there might be some pullback, not to mention the strong support at 1.2700. However, I still think it will keep falling after the pullback is over.
Are very important and will condition the next market movements, the latest statements of the ECB President how will do everything necessary to prevent the risk of deflation.
I agree with you bewayoba have a great weekend everyone
EURUSD makes a new weekly low, broke off 1.27 level, one more step closer to Goldman Sachs forecast.
Totally agree, have a nice weekend everyone.
EURUSD fell during the course of the day on Friday session, breaking the bottom of the hammer from the Thursday session. This is a very negative sign and therefore the market should continue to go much lower. The 1.25 level is probably the next target but the longer-term charts suggests that we could go even lower than they are.
EUR/USD formed an inverted hammer candlestick in the four hour filter chart and headed up. Considering that thereâs also very strong support in the 1.2660-1.2700 zone, I think some correction is beginning with target 1.2730, perhaps even 1.2800.
I agree with you, I can see the correction will be in the 1.2725 zone.
I agree but still the bearish trend is valid as long as the price trade under the resistance 1.2750
The dollar continues to climb free.
The DXY index rises 11 consecutive weeks, the first time there since 1971, the year in which the exchange rates fluctuated.
The DXY index rose 1.35% last week, the third highest rise in a series of 11 weeks, which shows no signs of slowing down any.
The USD rose against all currencies.
We are all back from weekend and in my point of view, nothing but ranging. Sit tight and enjoy your movie to wait for great opportunities in my opinion.
Since my 9/25 update, we saw two more sessions that broke new lows. Eight of the nine sessions in this short trade have broken new lows. The last two sessions saw new lows and lower highs as volatility has fallen again. I groomed my stop to just above the 9/22 low which is also half-way between the 9/24 and 9/25 highs. That locks in about 84 pips profit (about the total risk I started with) in this currently 215 pip positive trade. The most this trade went negative was about 26 pips. I will wait for the 7-day high to drop below this level to continue grooming my stop just above the 7-day high.
Why move the stop from the 3-day to the 7-day high?
The 3-day high/low range peaked at 205 pips on 9/25 and is now dropping to 98 pips as the 9/30 session begins. If no new 3-day high or low is hit today it will end with that 98 pip 3-day range. Moving to the 7-day high as a stop will allow room for any small break to a new 3-day high as volatility becomes smaller and a new 3-day high becomes easier to break. A 7-day high stop has a better likelihood to keep me in the trade if we see such a break before more volatility to the downside returns.
Another concept: âMarket moneyâ. When I entered the trade I risked around 88 pips of money earned in previous trades. I no longer have that money at risk and have in fact locked in a profit. The remaining 131 pips currently at risk from the current price to my stop is âmarket moneyâ. I can afford to risk 131 rather than 86 pips without any concern because ALL of those pips are what some have called âmarket moneyâ, money that was earned in this very trade. This does not mean I will get sloppy or break my trading strategy, it just means I can afford to take wider stops and allow more time for the trade to develop in my favor.
Guard your capital, may the force be with you, and remember: the trend is your friend until the end when it bends.
EURUSD tried to rally during the course of the day on yesterday session, but failed near the 1.27 level. This level ended up pushing market back down and forming a doji, which of course represents indecision in the market. The EURUSD is likely to take a pause, but a break below yesterday low could push the pair towards the 1.25 level given enough time.
All things considered, I think we can conclude that the bearish EUR/USD trend isnât exhausted yet. It fell 90 pips for the past four hours alone and broke below 1.2600. Personally, I think the next target is 1.2500, although it might go even lower.
So are any of you trading this pair or is arbitrager and myself the only ones making any profit. Its like your commentating on a football match played yesterday. Suppose those who can do those who canât preach.
Arbitrager, keep up the great work bro, really enjoying your methodology.
I decided after going for such a long time with no one to talk to about this stuff, I would find a forum. I think the world has enough financial commentators who donât offer any real usable information. If my thinking produces losses, I want others to see that and provide me with help. Even if they produce gains by dumb luck I want good analysis of my process. What would be the point of talking in generalities and innuendos?
I also want to see others with solid performing methods.
Eur/usd broke down 1.26 level after German CPI released, Iâm waiting for the price pull back to the 1.2655 zone and short again.
Well we saw another 93 pips lower for the 9/30 low. When trends fly they fly. We even broke below the 11-2012 lows! That puts the 3-day range to about 190 pips. 190 pips is not a shabby 3-day range for this pair. Even without a new 3-day break either way today we will still have a 145 pip 3-day range at the close of 10/01. The 7-day range is over 330 pips!
Stay short. The show ainât over. And if you are not in at all, waiting for a pullback may be nothing but missing a flight to the July 2012 lows at 1.2040. If I was not in this pair right now, I would short the next break below the 9/30 low and put my initial stop just above the 9/30 high. Donât let the market sentiment tell you how to trade. So what if the retail crowd is net short now, your guess is as good as any as to how big dummies have picked this bottom and gone long with stops just a nudge lower. Never call a bottom. The trend is your friend till the end.