The EURUSD may continue dropping after Friday’s NFP report.
EURUSD traded yesterday sharply lower after convincingly taking out the November 13, 2012 bottom at 1.2660. The next downside target on a daily chart is Fibonacci extension target at 1.2507. Today is not about support and resistance, but momentum. Watch for volatile swings in either direction as investors focus on what the European Central Bank (ECB) will announce at its policy meeting tomorrow.
EUR/USD hit strong support at 1.2600 and we might see some pullback before it heads for 1.2500, especially considering that a double bottom seems to have formed in the one hour filter chart.
According to Goldman: ‘’ The Euro is therefore far from cheap after recent declines and this is one of the reasons we continue to hold a bearish view. We expect EUR/$ to go to 1.20 in 12 months and parity by end-2017.’’ What do you think?
It’s too soon to tell, as we can see the potential of USD strength recently. But on the other hand China will start quoting EUR/CYN, this will reduce volumes in USD and increase them in EUR. This quoting might just be what the Euro needed to recover from the recent steep loses it suffered versus USD.
The dollar traded higher against EUR but almost unchanged against GBP.
The euro fell against the dollar after mainly because manufacturing growth in the Euro-area slowed further more in September.
price failed to break the week’s low @ 1.2570 more than one time. I am going to buy for target under the next resistance level of 1.2665
That is a 50/50 bet in the noise. There is no edge to those. If there is, enlighten me.
Possible correction on the EURUSD, but the 1.2700 could act as resistance.
Let him buy bro. Someone has to take the opposite side to us. I don’t care who funds my nest egg.
The EURUSD had a narrow range day yesterday and is likely sidelined waiting for today’s European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decision and monetary policy statement and press conference.
Mario Draghi will announce during the day reinforcing stimulus measures, keeping the interest rate unchanged at 0.05% reference.
With these measures, the USD may continue to weaken against other currency, especially USD, taking into account the recovery of the American economy.
Yes, EUR ECB’s Mario Draghi will speak at the rate decision press conference later today and the non-farm payrolls are on Friday, so the market is expected to be pretty volatile for the rest of the week. We’ll have to wait and see what the effect of these events will be.
I am expecting the same and no more strengthen to the US dollar any more.
That is the market no one is always right . I hit the target
The upward movement on the Euro may be short-lived if tomorrow’s NFP report comes out better than expected.
Sure, but do that same strategy 50 times and how many will lose and how many will win? You need more than 50% wins to have a profit. But you are trading a strategy that can do 50% wins at best. In fact, it will actually do less than 50% wins. Why? Because the spread knocks the 50% to 45% or worse. A trader putting orders with 20 pip stops and targets will hit the target 50% of the time but pay 12.5% (with a 2.5 pip spread) of their winnings in fees. A 50 pip stop and target moves the percentage down to 5%, but the expectancy is still negative. That strategy will win money for nobody but the broker. You need a strategy with a positive expectancy.
Don’t think that shorter stops and longer targets will fix this problem. Example: Putting your stop at 45 pips and your target at 55 pips. While it will make your wins equal to or more than your losses by making up for the spread, it will lower your win-rate to less than 50/50 because the price move to 45 pips is more probable than the one to 55 pips. So your wins will be slightly bigger than your losses, but the losses will outnumber the wins.
Most trades within the noise (within the daily range) are 50/50 trades at best.
EURUSD has wavered around 1.2650 since Draghi’s speech, and the next key event that could determine is future direction is tomorrow’s US payrolls report. Another sub-150k ready for NFPs could trigger a sharper pullback in the EURUSD downtrend, back towards the 1.2800 highs from 24th September.
Today is celebrated in Germany the German Unity Day.
The DAX 30 (index of shares in Germany) will be closed.
Due to the NFP data may be unexpected fluctuations in EURUSD.
The non-farm payrolls certainly had an effect and EUR/USD fell another 70 pips today. The bearish trend shows no signs of exhaustion and if you look at the monthly filter chart the previous lows are at 1.2030 and 1.1870 so I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s headed for those targets, though I don’t think it will happen any time soon.