Saol fada chugat
Go raibh míle maith agat!
We expected less green on St. Patrick’s Day this year.
You are correct about stranger things happening. Many people are looking forward to pairty, but the weird thing is that before reaching parity any current event could rock the market thus causing the trend to change. Please recall that prior to Mario’s speech which was one year ago to this month which caused EUR/USD to drop from 1.3999 to where we are now, the trend was UP, and it had been up for 2 years.
I believe that it would be insane to go against the trend as a swinger, but the trend could change at any given moment. For all we know we could currently be inside the change of the trend at this moment. Once the higher tf has shown that the OVERALL TREND HAS CHANGED, EUR/USD may of very well spiked 500-800 pips from the low. Which of course would mean that many sellers would be trapped into sell positions, adding sells with bias ignoring the price action.
Hello Best Pick Are Us!
Yes, what you say is true…
However, identifying a trend change can be more art than science, as you know…
And the angle has a lot to do with it: a pair may show bullishness on an hourly chart,
bearishness on a four-hourly, bullishness on a daily, bearishness on a monthly, etc.
Depending on the kind of trader that you are, you may still see the bigger picture
on the longer-term charts but still use a short-term bias that may go against that, as
your trading style may be one of capturing trends-within-trend movements in that pair.
Take the EUR/USD, for example: where are the signs of reversal? Fundamentally speaking,
there is no stopping the Fed-train at the moment… and the ECB is diametrically opposite on
the monetary policy stance, so no technical level can change that…
Also, from the year after the Euro was introduced, the EUR/USD pair has moved into two
7-8 year steps:
a) BULLISH: Oct. 2000 - Jul. 2008 = 47% rise (from 0.82(30) to 1.60(36));
b) BEARISH: Jul. 2008 - Mar. 2015 = 34% drop (from 1.60(36) to 1.05(55)).
Now if you traded positions over 7-8 year cycles, you would have gone long in 2000,
and short in 2008; however, as you break the two strands into smaller time-frames,
you will see a richer, more diverse picture of smaller trends-within-trends, and it all
depends on which angle you view the chart.
At present, there is no saying that the Euro could not drop back to that 2000 low (0.82(30)),
as there is no ‘floor’ at parity… and we know what banks do with ‘floors’ anyway (they mop them clean,
especially in Switzerland)!
So if the pair rose 47% and fell thus far by 34%, we are about three-quarters of the way (72.34%) in retracing
the bullish 2000-2008 move… This is, of course, a warning sign of possible exhaustion scenarios, but a 100%
retracement is not out of the question… Probably, going short now could be late in the game, and going long
a little premature, at least for medium-to-long term trades: in the shorter term (e.g. a few days), then going
short could still be profitable, as could be going long (on short pull-backs)…
The choice is ours!
Happy trading!!
[QUOTE=“PipMeHappy;689279”]Hello Best Pick Are Us! Yes, what you say is true… However, identifying a trend change can be more art than science, as you know… And the angle has a lot to do with it: a pair may show bullishness on an hourly chart, bearishness on a four-hourly, bullishness on a daily, bearishness on a monthly, etc. Depending on the kind of trader that you are, you may still see the bigger picture on the longer-term charts but still use a short-term bias that may go against that, as your trading style may be one of capturing trends-within-trend movements in that pair. Take the EUR/USD, for example: where are the signs of reversal? Fundamentally speaking, there is no stopping the Fed-train at the moment… and the ECB is diametrically opposite on the monetary policy stance, so no technical level can change that… Also, from the year after the Euro was introduced, the EUR/USD pair has moved into two 7-8 year steps: a) BULLISH: Oct. 2000 - Jul. 2008 = 47% rise (from 0.82(30) to 1.60(36)); b) BEARISH: Jul. 2008 - Mar. 2015 = 34% drop (from 1.60(36) to 1.05(55)). Now if you traded positions over 7-8 year cycles, you would have gone long in 2000, and short in 2008; however, as you break the two strands into smaller time-frames, you will see a richer, more diverse picture of smaller trends-within-trends, and it all depends on which angle you view the chart. At present, there is no saying that the Euro could not drop back to that 2000 low (0.82(30)), as there is no ‘floor’ at parity… and we know what banks do with ‘floors’ anyway (they mop them clean, especially in Switzerland)! So if the pair rose 47% and fell thus far by 34%, we are about three-quarters of the way (72.34%) in retracing the bullish 2000-2008 move… This is, of course, a warning sign of possible exhaustion scenarios, but a 100% retracement is not out of the question… Probably, going short now could be late in the game, and going long a little premature, at least for medium-to-long term trades: in the shorter term (e.g. a few days), then going short could still be profitable, as could be going long (on short pull-backs)… The choice is ours! Happy trading!![/QUOTE]
Thanks PipmeHappy, today’s trade just hit one of my retrace ang I’m changing to bull
Stop lost @ 1.0550
Very well put my friend. My question to you would be “Do you believe that the higher tf creates what we see on the lower tf, or visa versa?”
If you are not short the euro, you can take a small position with your stop out over the 4 week high and let it ride for over a month. Better, do it in EUR/JPY which broke into a new bear trend early this year.
- Adrian
Hope I can express a view on this one. My belief is that lower tf must obey the higher tf except when theres a change in trend. Higher tf must obey the laws of supply n demand and can’t be manipulated. Lower tf are subject to the laws of haggling. Buyers want to buy at the lowest price, sellers want to achieve the best possible price. They will manipulate the markets to the best of their ability (and these are very clever people who are very very good at their job). However at the end of the day supply n demand will always win.
As for the EU. I’m in a holding pattern for the moment. I want to see a retracements back to 1.065/1.7 before going short again. I will also wait until a higher low has been set before looking to go long. I’m with AoA at the moment EJ short.
For some reason I am note able to upload my chart…
The current bid price on eu is 1.05671 on the 5m. If the bid closes above 1.05679 that would make EU a scalp buy to the next pivot level which is 1.06375
Screenshot by Lightshot
Thank you very much for sharing your POV. So being that you mention “supply and demand” wouldn’t supply and demand change based on market conditions (Daily). Which also leads me to “daily pivots” which seem to be the center of gravity of intraday runs. My theory is that the market has more then enough supply, as the amount of lots isn’t even known (unlike stocks in which you know the o/s, a/s, and float). So that would mean that if the demand can be met, then the market will move against the herd (what most would call manipulation on the lower tf). Would you also say that if forex had “market depth” that it would be much easier to profit in forex (As with market depth ‘level III in stocks’ you can see all the offers and bids, thus giving you a slight edge compared to not being able to see it.)
[QUOTE=“bobbillbrowne;689298”]As for the EU. I’m in a holding pattern for the moment. I want to see a retracements back to 1.065/1.7 before going short again. I will also wait until a higher low has been set before looking to go long. I’m with AoA at the moment EJ short.[/QUOTE]
Looking into this, thank you sir, going short once reach 1.0650
The US Dollar index is looking pretty sluggish this morning: with the FOMC meeting in view tomorrow, I expect that we will not see much direction today across US Dollar pairs…a quiet day…
EURUSD rose on yesterday session mainly on the back of profit taking ahead of this week’s FOMC monetary policy announcement.
From a wider angle, rallies towards levels of around 1.08 should still prove to be a good selling opportunities. This is mainly due to additional spreading of diverging ECB-Fed monetary policy expectations.
[QUOTE=“bobbillbrowne;689298”]As for the EU. I’m in a holding pattern for the moment. I want to see a retracements back to 1.065/1.7 before going short again. I will also wait until a higher low has been set before looking to go long. I’m with AoA at the moment EJ short.[/QUOTE]
Hello,
Looks like this will reach 1% then get exhausted. I’ve prepared ten trades today waiting for short, this should to break even my profit today 1.0650. I will also put 1.07
Screenshot by Lightshot
A reload of the buy position would be once the bid price closes above 1.06099 on the 5m chart. That would result in a spike to the R1 pivot at least.
Until then (hedge) the winning EU recommendation made earlier, or sell EU at this point.
Again we have upward correction movement above the 1.0600 level may lead to a continued advance up to the 1.0650/60 zone, the main support still stands at 1.0550 and if any break below it will go down to the 1.0500 level.
You can now see that after the recommendation EU has spiked over 20 pips across the entry level.
Screenshot by Lightshot
Take profit at the R1 daily pivot has been hit. That resulted in a 35+ pip profit on counter trading the OVERALL trend of EU. Let us now await a new calculation for either a sell or buy of EU. At this current moement I am now neutral to EU.