EURUSD Analysis (ongoing)

We’re not out of this downtrend yet bud can’t see it happening for a little while personally, I’ve just closed some positions in this pair with a small profit. Going to see how it develops before opening any more positions.

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07/03/2022 - EURUSD weekly analysis.

I probably don’t have to say it but we are currently in a black swan event.

Sanctions have been implemented against Russia for the unprovoked invasion of Ukraine and more are on the way.

The EURUSD has fallen due to uncertainty over the war and we are more than likely to see more downside as we continue.

The ECB and other central banks were having to deal with inflation already and looks like it will be a lot harder from now on.

EUR will take the brunt of the panic but most likely we’ll start to see the US affected by the squeeze on commodities.

All in all the countries closer to the conflict will be affected more leaning me towards the downside for the pair.

All eyes will moss likely be on the war and fundamentals will play a large part in how the markets move now.

For now, it’s sells for me but there will be a time when it will turn around.

P.S. Sell the Ruble.

Slava Ukraini!

I think we’re heading to the covid low of 2020 around 1.0636. Could even break it.


Unfortunately there’s more downside to come the EUR is feeling the brunt of this war hopefully diplomacy can take hold sooner than later

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Anyone trading through this and coming out unscathed deserves an award…

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This has been slowly trending back up mate, think it’s worth while getting some long positions in on it.

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EURO trying to rally, but still an overall down trend for me


Check out the DXY. Divergence between it and EU.


Spot on, divergence gives you such an advantage

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I dont think for long mate

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EURUSD - 28/03/2022 - With turmoil at Europe’s doorstep the EURUSD continues downwards towards a stronger dollar.

The slow economic recovery in Europe is stopping the ECB from tightening monetary policy.

This on top of risk adverse markets has me on the sells.

“hawkish Fed rhetoric, and the knock-on move higher in US Treasury bond yields, continue to apply downward pressure on EURUSD” - an apt assessment and along with USD safe haven status leads me to believe the dollar may pump across the board.

Euro Zone inflation data this week will continue to keep the pressure on - “German headline inflation is expected to rise to 6.1% next week, from 5.1% in February, a level that was last seen in the early 1990s.”

All in all I’m still on the sells and we may drop further now we’re under 1.10.

There’s always a chance the markets could change as we’re in risky times though the majority of the risk is upon Europe’s shoulders.

All eyes on German inflation data.

What do you guys think? Do you see any upwards movement?


The price has been heading towards the South with a moderate bearish momentum. I assume that it may find its support soon and make a move towards the North. Let us wait and watch for the price action near the last swing low.

If we get another high from here then I think we are turning the tide. All hinges on the dollar.

Price appears to be making a nice set of HH and HL once it hits another HH I’m longing it

You end up entering?
Things are looking pretty solid so far today.
Nothing to confirm a trend reversal, but certainly looking better than 48 hours ago.

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Always looking for that confirmation too. I need to make sure i have my ducks in a row before entering too a little patience goes a long way

Not for the moment until price states otherwise but momentum is slowing down

Like Ive expected it - a lot of big moves in both sides as its a lot of US news this week. Glad that I`ve skipped this pair this week.

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Sometimes not trading is so important. I sat on my hands this recent week and saved some R rather than made it

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11/04/2022 - EURUSD weekly analysis.

The pair appears oversold but may be further to go to hit main support.

ECB was positive on EUR this week but any gains from news was short lived.

Fedspeak propped the dollar up with “St Louis Fed President James Bullard argued on Thursday that they would need to lift the policy rate toward 3.5% this year to tame inflation.”

“Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic and Chicago Fed President Charles Evans both reiterated that it would be appropriate to move the policy to a neutral level by the end of the year.”

1.08-1.075 looks like a strong place of support on the downtrend line but could obviously hold here.

Once support is established I’d look for a retrace and for longs up to upper downtrend lines.

1.12-1.115 looks like a strong place for resistance into the week after next.

All in all Monday I will be looking for resistance and then eying longs with overall downtrend in mind, can’t see a plunge (established) below 1.075 unless ECB interest rate decision on Wednesday is a shocker.

Things to look out for:

  • First round of the French presidential election.
  • ECB will deliver their interest rate decision which is not expected to reveal a surprise rate hike. (Wednesday)

Where do you think we’re going? Are we going through support or following the pattern?

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