We’ve hit against resistance and continue follow downtrend.
FED’s turn this week, will be the one to watch on Wednesday. I’ll be watching for further downtrend.
Despite a hawkish ECB the there’s been to much competition from the more hawkish FED
“Fed bringing benchmark lending rates to 3.78% while the ECB falling short at 1.93%.”
“The US Consumer Price Index soared to a 40-year high of 8.6% in May, ahead of the Fed’s decision.”
“Neither inflation will recede nor growth will pick up anytime soon. Central Banks’ future decisions have been already priced in.” Basically more of the same to come.
All in all I’m on the lookout for news to bump the pair off course but can’t really see it happening.
Will be looking for further moves down to challenge the 1.04.
I agree with your view. That channel’s resistance has been driving the price towards the South. The momentum is very strong, which suggests that it may continue its move towards the downside for quite a while.
The pair seems to have found its support 1.03600. It had a strong bounce. The pair has been heading towards the North now. The Bull may dominate if the level of 1.07500 is breached. Otherwise, it may get choppy here before finding its next route.
The pair found its resistance at 1.06000. It may drive the price towards the South again. The pair had a strong bounce at 1.03000 earlier. Thus, the level may hold the price as a level of support at least for a while. A breakout below that level may drive the price towards parity.
The euro has done well to stand up against the dollar with particularly after weak eurozone PMI figures though not sure how long it can hold.
Technically the pair is looking quite neutral but lots of incoming fundamentals on their way to put pressure on the pair.
Quick bearish rundown:
“Danske Bank forecast the EUR/USD pair at 1.04 in a one-month perspective, at 1.03 in three months and at 1.00 in a year.”
- “Rabobank continue to see the risk of a dip back to the year’s low at the 1.0350 region on a one to three-month view. They revised lower their 12-month forecast to 1.08 from 1.10.”
- General talks about recession, seeing USD as safe haven.
- “S&P cut the EU’s economic growth forecasts to 2.6% for this year.”
- “government bond yields advance, underpinning the American currency.”
Overall thoughts; I’m watching the 1.04 res closely. It’s been tested a couple of times now though I feel like it’s not a sign of reversal but a sign that the pair wants to go further.
We still have the upper downtrend line to meet and test at 1.06, a break above will see us testing 1.065-1.07 area with SLs at 1.08-1.085 hopefully safe.
I think for any sign of reversal the pair would have to consolidate out of the downtrend but this scenario looks unlikely.
What are your thoughts on the pair? Are the sellers still safe?
The pair had a bounce at the magic number 1.00000 last week. This probably the most significant level for this pair. Traders are to be very watchful here. If it works as a level of support in the daily chart, it may push the price towards the North. A bearish breakout in the daily chart may drive the price towards the South further.
We may see sub-dollar euro soon that we haven’t seen since the early 2000s.
I’m looking at a retrace to find resistance on Monday then pilling on more shorts.
Think we might see a nice sell zone around 1.04.
Looking at Thursday when the ECB announce monetary measures.
The ECB announcement may be bullish for the moment or priced in which will see us pop up in expectation.
Generally feeling the sells are safe though.
“The ECB has signalled the start of the rate hike cycle and a 25 bps rate hike is fully priced in the markets. The question, however, is whether the central bank commits the size of the rate hike in September or leaves it open.” All eyes ECB
Buy to sell for the start of the week for me. We’ve already broken the 1.00 level late last week and I can see price heading to 0.92 looking at where DXY might reach into.
The price had a bounce at 1.00000, which is a massive round number. The pair has been traded around 1.020000. A bearish reversal candle may drive the price towards the level of 1.00000 again.
