So hard to time these bottoms i want to make sure its another leg of price in either direction before i would consider getting involved
We will likely see the Dollar flip the Euro soon.
As of the end of last week my other EUR D1 trend-following opportunities have evaporated, apart from EUR/USD as a sell I have all EUR pairs marked as “Avoid”.
This is the problem I often find with EUR pairs - EUR is so heavily traded that the moves become smaller and smaller - a trend is establish, consolidated, then reversed in 3 days, and then we’re back to Square 1.
Still, E/U was the second-largest EUR mover last week (after EUR/JPY - that was a steep faller so glad I highlighted it as a buy to avoid last week) and I still have USD as top currency though so maybe short E/U still isn’t impossible.
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EURUSD 19/05/2022 - weekly analysis.
Can see us hitting consolidation or a drop unless we hit a curve ball. Volatility and volume are up.
Currently at the 1.05 and looks like we’ve settled bellow lower trend line but sideways movement through the trend wouldn’t make me bullish.
For me a break and settle above 1.06 would make me bullish bit more likely to go sideways to hit 1.06 or a drop through 1.04.
Fundamental points going forward:
- “Comments from European Central Bank (ECB) officials failed to help the euro on Wednesday as the sharp decline witnessed in global equity indexes allowed safe-haven flows to dominate the financial markets.”
- “In case the ECB statement suggests that policymakers see the need for successive rate hikes amid inflation fears, the pair could regain its traction. “
- “Risk perception should remain the primary driver of the pair’s action. The US economic docket will feature the weekly Initial Jobless Claims and the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s Manufacturing Survey. Unless these data trigger a rebound in US stocks, the greenback should manage to preserve its strength.”
ECB speech of Friday is one to watch, can’t see any call for upside.
Where do you think EURUSD is going?
USD looks to be retracing right now. Given that euro makes up a big portion of the Dollar Index, I see it strengthening in the short-term but would look to still trade with the trend and fade the rally around 1.08.
As long as the conflict in Ukraine remains, geopolitics (and its effects on commodity prices) will be a major influence on the euro.
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EURUSD made a long bearish move. Upon finding its support, the pair had a bullish correction. The level of 1.06140 seems to be working as a level of resistance. A bearish reversal candle may make the bear get bearish again.
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Id like it to take the recent highs liquidity and then drop, looks good to me. Itll fill an imbalance too
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1.07850 is the level i would like to see tested and drop from next
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One more bite at the liquidity pie resting above that last high before coming down
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Nice short sell from here
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The pair has been heading towards the North. It made a significant breakout at 1.06000. The pair has been traded above the level. If the price comes back and produces a bullish reversal candle, the buyers may push the price towards the North further. The price may find its next resistance around 1.10000.
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The dixie is definitely in a bit of a retracement at the moment. I had a nice AU trade come in this week. DXY is a great tool to use if not being used already
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Let’s see what this week’s NFP will cause this time.
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Seems another push for DXY but nothing that has changes the momentum of the last few months
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06/06/2022 - EURUSD weekly analysis.
“Overheating inflation and slowing economic growth are still the main market drivers.” For me I’m still feeling bearish, not much has changed in my outlook of the pair long term.
So I’m going to discuss some macro sentiments I have:
- High inflation: EUR at 7% and USD at 8%. Last time we saw rates like this was before the last financial crisis and we’re currently surpassed that. We’re looking at numbers we haven’t seen since the 80’s.
- Energy crisis: Europe to faze out RUS oil by end of year and other forms of energy in general. Already problems before the Ukraine invasion.
- Stock market: S&P 500 is running above average. Most stocks are probably overvalued. A lot of retail money has come in over the last few years, lots of leverage.
- House prices: To high compared to wages. This is still rattling through my head. 2 years pent up sales from the pandemic is obvious but we’ve been going in this direction for a while. I can only talk about where I live but in the uk people with 5% mortgages and “help to buy” new builds that were sold at higher prices might feel the squeeze as the economy tightens.
- Low wages: Self explanatory, look at any chart. My local town, pub, restaurant, nightclub… these places should be packed after two years of lockdown but no one is out, everyone is worried about money.
- Low unemployment rate: A low unemployment rate isn’t necessarily a good thing. Usually means people are feeling the pinch and scrambling. We’ve seen this before other recessions.
All in all you can probably see where I’m going with this… “Big ba-da boom.” For me the EUR will take the hardest punches due slow economic recovery, war in Ukraine and energy crisis though the U.S. may sneeze first.
What do you guys think? Am I too doom and gloom? 
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The pair seems to have found its resistance at 1.07700. Last weekly candle came out as a Doji candle right at that level. The price may get bearish from here and head towards the South again.
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Red folder news on EUR and USD to end the week could be interersting in shifting the pair
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I wonder why it’s been a while since I’ve seen this thread! 
Commenting here so I get notified for future posts cause I’ve been trading EURUSD more often again. 
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Yesterday’s daily candle came out as a bearish engulfing candle. The intraday sellers may find some short opportunities in the pair. As long as the pair remains below of the level of 1.08000, the pair may remain bearish here.
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Such a massive move this week. Its definitely gaining more liquidity but that may stop now with the summer break coming in during July
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