Those charts tell you everything you need to know about current positioning on the euro currency v/s those respective pairs.
What can’t speak can’t lie.
As for bear or bull traps, why should that be a concern?
Just trade the flow. Your trailing profit or exit stop will take you safely out of the market if your timing is off.
What’s all the rush about trying to short eurusd?
Let the market flow tell you when it’s ready to turn over.
That way you don’t have to try & predict or front run it.
Back in October this pair found a happy place bouncing around under 1.40 not being able to hold on convincingly any higher until November booted it up for a stop sweep and the collapse back to 3500. Might bog down a bit if it get’s there again.
Can’t they… don’t they? 
As I’ve already outlined… I shorted EU after a very high probabilty set up coupled with a particular order book flow pattern. Each to their own.
I’m short too. It’s still very difficult for me to decide whether the EUR will continue to go up.
my short hit take profit and I’m out for the week with NFP tomorrow
Well I WAS short trying to trade a bit of news today (noobie alert!), watching bloomberg as the numbers came out neutralish and Trichet was neutralish (though I now understand he was expected to be hawkish). A tiny rise paniced me to go long and…eu dropped off a 70ish pip cliff, even better I managed to stay on board all the way down. Good learning experience.
I increased leverage (fairly conservative to start with) and revenge traded and got lucky, almost no rhyme or reason to my angry, lucky trades.
Think I’ll stay out of NFP antcs tommorow, well I’ll demo it.
Save yourself the pain! LOL Way back when I read this surefire way to come out ahead on trading NFP. Simply set a buy and sell in place ten’ish pips away from current price one minute before news release, with ten pip stops on both. Sure enough the sell was triggered without hitting my stop. GREAT… I’m on a winner! Err nope. I hit my out button (repeatedly and frantically) when up 50 pips. Nothing. Price retraced hit my stop but did not trigger it and activated my buy. It too went around 50 pips positive, then retraced. By the time both sell orders were taken, I had managed to be on the right side of the trade twice but somehow come out of both - 70 pips. Slippage… don’t bother really my friend. LOL
Thanks RC. Of course if I demo trade it later it’ll work like a dream.
Only been live a couple of weeks with a dealing desk broker but have yet to experience any significant slip, lag or requotes. To be honest I’ll probably try it with 10p pips as a tester but I wouldn’t come crying to you when it goes pear like lol.
Good luck!
You might want to consider using a non-dealing desk broker. 
OK, it’s Friday and I’m in the mood to play silly beggars. 13.28 GMT going short at $50 a pip. Erm yes, on a demo account obviously :). No stop of course, that would spoil the fun. Never seen what a margin call looks like before so it’ll be something different at least.
Well EU’s at daily support… you can certainly argue a good case for a breakout of the 15m range low? Or err… a break long? LOL
My guess is well get a 50’ish pip swing both ways and end up where we started! The order flow suggests an initial break south?
Well that was a damp squip… 2 &10 year bond market is buying again. So, i’m back in short.
OK I broke my rules and risked 4% of equity on the NFP. Short at £2 a pip, price went 23 pips up to 1.3668 which was about 10pips from my s/l. Then price went south and I bottled out with a 16 pip profit. Looks like I could have held out for some more , the monthly low, where my inital t/p was but after the swing I bailed. That was fun.
No broker issues as yet RC and spread betting with MT4 is top draw but I’ve been told if I start making a consistant profit to really watch their performance.
If I double my account I’ll withdraw half and try somewhere else. I’m kind of on free money atm as my first £300 of losses are returned for the first month. Not sure if this is good for my trading psychology but free looses can’t be sniffed at
Ah… so your spread betting (binary)? I hear its a tough call… especially on the 2m,5m and 1h. But easier on the hi/lo daily. LOL
Oooh $3,500 profit in about half an hour. Easy this forex lark innit? If only that was for real… well maybe not, or thanks to that initial rise I’d probably be in casualty right now with some doc pinging a few thousand volts through my chest.
Seriously though, reckon I could set up a website and sell this guaranteed money-making system for a few £00 a pop? (“You look at that button marked ‘buy’ and that button marked ‘sell’ right? Then you go from one to the other saying 'eeny meeny miny mo…”)
Oh well, back to those boring old 4hr, day and week charts! 
It’s not binary betting as I understand it (fixed profit/loss regardless of how far the market moves?)
The spread betting on MT4 works the same as other regular forex brokers MT4 demos I run except you select a pip value instead of a lot size, the leverage is the same I think or at least it adds up to the same p/l.
Good luck with it Jaroon. Its not for me… I like to pull the plug where I see fit if a trade turns ugly. I looked at Ladbrokes… just a casual glance and they offer binary and binary plus the pip spread. Seems you can go beyond margin call with the latter?
I used spreadbetting before Jaroon. The biggest problem is risk management given that the minimum bet is usually €1 and my account was €1,000. You’re kind of committed to entering a full size position every time you go for a trade and ask the market a question. I decided just recently to move over to Oanda so I can enter feeder stakes which I’ll add to if the trade turns out to be a winner but won’t cost me too much if it turns out I’m wrong.
If I have a bigger account I’d consider spreadbetting again as apart from the risk I don’t find much difference between the FX product and the spreadbetting product offered and the tax free incentive is nice. But with an FX account in the low thousands the amount of tax to be paid on capital gains is minimal and you can often get better spreads on non-major pairs with FX if you’re into betting on those.
Yes PB I’ve also demoed PaddyPower spread betting and they’re £1 a pip minimum and a fairly clunky platform.
I researched Smart Live Markets who offer regular forex and spread betting forex to UK and Irish customers. MT4, 10p a pip minimum, 1 pip spread on e/u and I think 2 on g/u which isn’t bad. Customer service is good, I’ve had two half hour chats with their MD. There is a large thread about them on another forum and not all the reviews are great with talk of slippage and requotes, much as you’d expect to read on tinernet. In all fairness to SLM my experience thus far has been very good but as issues arise I’ll the the masses know:)
With a £1000 account I know the tax benefits aren’t a factor at this time but I can add to my account when I become consistantly profitable (consistantly break even atm) and so wanted to get a handle on spread betting. I know I’m not the sharpest knife in the box but I don’t really see any significant difference in spread betting on MT4 and regular broker operations on the same platform:confused:
Well this thread took some finding… page seventeen I think? LOL
So what do we think? Monthly EU is way outside my initial ‘look see if its gonna swing’ antenna. Weekly has just lined up, daily again outside as well as 4h and 1h if you put much stock in these shorter TF’s. Anyways the upshot is my pending order triggered at 1.4700 short.
