It’s ALWAYS impossible.
The unexpected hits like a cannon.
Last year at this time, it was the unforeseen announcement of the default by Dubai that started a slide.
This year, the surprise attack is literally that.
A surprise attack.
Kim Jong Il hurling cannonballs at South Korea unexpectedly.
You can’t plan for that, no amount of fundamentals or technicals will help. All you can do is be light on your feet, and hope you’re in the right way…
To be fair dollar has already been getting stronger for the past 2-3 weeks but today certainly enabled it to move further.
Any CHF trades take note:
[I]Some may recall how the very contentious topic of Greek deposit bank runs was arguably the key catalyst to push Greece (and its banks) to accept a bailout from Europe, after the country realized it had little cash left (and the associated SNAFU in which RBS proved it really has no clue about anything). Well, it is now Ireland turn, and as the below chart shows, the Irish bank run has already commenced, with locals not even bothering to wait until the December 7 coordinated “pull your money” pan-European D (for default)-Day. Bank of America brings attention to this issue, which will likely be the last liquidity event before not only a full bailout of Ireland has to be implement, full terms be damned, but the catalyst for ongoing CHF strength as European deposits once again rush to the relative safety of the last remaining relatively stable European currency (and of course gold).[/I]
Quite, I meant more that it is impossible to give someone else a definitive opinion on which way to back a pair and at what moment that would suit their circumstances - obviously it is completely impossible to predict what price will do. Would be nice, though!
If everybody would know the future, it would be boring. Plus no money to gain from, because everybody would have the same entry and exit, lol. 
Sorry if that came off like I was disagreeing with you. I assure you I wasn’t.
Your point was absolutely correct. This is all perspective.
Where one sees opportunities is quite subjective.
It’s the unexpected that one should expect.
yeah my little scalp looked ok on the daily at the time but didn’t pan out. Just goes to prove you can’t win em all. It’s still been in an uptrend on the monthly for the last 5 months so I’m not giving up on an overall long bias for now.
Unless you consider the Daily chart of 4/5 November to mark a trend reversal, leading into a current downtrend? There have been previous retracements within the wider trend that offered shorting opportunities (such as 9th August to 9th September), but the current drop could mark a more lasting reversal. Certainly, I took it for nearly 200 pips short today, which is quite a marked drop, so I am wondering if this reversal might stick sufficiently to mark a wider downtrend. I am not seeking to be difficult, just interested in hearing what you think, as someone else who trades this pair? (Ftr I can absolutely see why you went Long when you did) After all, it cannot rise forever, and 1.4200 or thereabouts has been a longstanding support/resistance level.
(PS: Master Tang: I think that we are actually agreeing with one another, which we often seem to, but the written word without intonation behind it can sometimes seem clumsier, but I appreciate the sentiment!)
Speaking of which, I think a contra trade on EU and GU right about now is not out of the question. 
Long EU at 1.338, TP 1.342 and GU at 1.580, TP 1.584. What… don’t fancy joining me? LOL
I went long e/u for 20 pips at 1.3374. Trade is all dun
Kinda sitting on my hands about the g/u atm. Something about the last few hours of the NY session that kills that pair’s activity a bit.
Last few hrs of NY everything dies… mostly
Including my GU trade… -30 pips! Took it off the daily… so not yet ready to throw in the towel lol. Median across the hi/lo on the daily is at 1.587.
30 pips ain’t nuttin for the g/u. That was a long unrelenting move down. Those sellers will turn into buyers.
Last Sunday I said 1.32,but I think price has room to 1.3070?
I’m reserving judgement… I said low would be 133’ish… so far its holding. I see the hourly TF is having another go at it but we have a classic narrowing triangle for a break out. The question is which way? Looking to the weekly, I see a nice upper/ lower trend line on a down trend and PA is at the lowest end of the last three weeks candles. Also looking to the monthly we have the same nice linear upper/ lower trend line but this time in an up trend and price is at the lower end of the last candle. So all things being equal we should see a break long.
All guestimates taken off HA candles/ bars. See attached screenshot. Might need to expand to 200% for a better look.
Sorry very poorly drawn 1h chart. Try this one.
And long it seems to be.
For now… LOL
Imma take a chance and a say that wick from yesterday will fill in before any sustained move up starts.
And unless Dubai defaults again, there’s hardly any market movers occurring, so it may just drift a bit aimlessly for a day.
Hey 20 pips on the Asian… don’t knock it. Today a bounce of 50 pips while you guys were tucking into turkey.
Seriously, if PA breaks 133 then its south to 1.300. By next Friday? I take it were all short?
Flat on the euro, but short is definitely my current bias. Got my limit playing 20 pip bounces on the pound last night, and 30 more on the aussie today.
In between bites 
:eek:
woohoo.