I’m talking more about the “now”. And yep, it’s an ugly contest right now, but if push REALLY came to shove, the dollar would be the choice.
You can see it every time the news for the euro gets bad. Big drop, then a bounce when the dust settles.
And the recent rally for the dollar has come across the board. Even to a degree on the swissy. Meanwhile the euro dipped under 1.20 there.
It’s not my opinion that counts though.
My setup is purely mechanical. I look for a simple setup that happens so often it’s ridiculous.
Once a trade is open, I watch the news. I have predetermined targets sat up for a close, but things like that spike yesterday may cahange my mind.
For instance, yesterday, I was in an E/ sell when the spike occurred. I widened my stop, and was rewarded when price dropped back down this AM.
I keep an eye on the fundamentals, yes. But I don’t know how some big hedge fund will react to the news. There are reasons the sovereigns, BIS, and others do things that we have no clue of.
So again, my opinion doesn’t matter short term, and don’t trade by it. But I do follow the whole soap opera closely. It’s headed in a direction that is not favorable. The euro can’t work until all of Europe is under one ruling party. And that most likely won’t happen in my lifetime.
Speaking from a European perspective, and having worked in Government for a few years, in an international role, my own view is that both the US and the Eurozone have pretty major problems, but that the US is more likely to turn it around more quickly, and more consistently. My principal reason for this view is that the Eurozone is comprised of many different Governments, with many different views and agendas - by no means all pro-Eurozone. Add to that the fact that we came up with a series of qualifying criteria to permit countries to enter the Euro and then, on a case-by-case basis, these criteria were relaxed for [I]political[/I] rather than economic reasons to enable certain countries to enter, and you have a scenario where the collective Eurozone economy has serious inherent flaws that, over even the long term, might not be fixable with the current membership under the current legislative framework. For some of these issues to be resolved would require either constitutional change or a change in membership, either of which will be a major undertaking which will take a long time to play out to any sort of meaningful conclusion.
On the other hand, the US, while obviously having problems caused by outside factors - principally but not least among them the completely changing face of global manufacturing and consumption of raw materials - at least is in a better position to formulate a cohesive strategy for addressing the existing problems and coming up with a plan to move forwards effectively.
So with apologies for the rambling, while each currency area faces enormous challenges, I think that USD will either recover more quickly than the Euro, or that USD’s recovery, when it comes, will be more sustained than that of the Euro.
I see it mostly like ST. Fundamentally the greenback and the US have it easier. I just do say that in the short term politicians in the ez will do everything to back the eur. No matter what that would cost for the ppl. And that will lead in the short term to a support. Short term here means months/years, not days. We are in a monthly thread. Anyways, there are also some chances of the eur. Just speaking about currency now and not economy. It is a fresh currency, so that is a psycho level for investors in the middle east and asia to avoid the greenback in parts.
On the technical side we have an intact bull trend on the weekly and monthly charts. Weekly is even more bullish and with some inner and outer trendlines showing straight 45 degree up. There is the seventh or so retest of the inner tl now. What we see right now in price is the fight of the weekly bulls against the hourly bears. If that weekly tl breaks, there is another weekly tl right below. But it seems to be not that easy for the hourly bears to break that inner tl anyways.
On the other side we have a small inner tl at the weekly on top. That might be another fight another day if that tl below holds.
Anyways, I wish everybody a nice weekend! 
Just to add something to this sentence. Yes, your opinions count. As long as [B]you[/B] come up with sort of logics and sense. At least to me. And it could also count to you more than what analysts babble. I give you an example that your opinion counts more than that of others:
20 years ago I learned to fly. In my first lesson after I got my license while planning a xc flight, I looked for a weather briefing from a guy at the weather station. He just told me it’s okay to fly. I didn’t ask anything further, because I was a newbie and trusted him. What a mistake! The weather was one of the worst in my whole flying experience of 20 years. I was happy to survive. So, what does that story tell ya? After that and in every case now I call them but I ask for proof and then I decide what to do and nobody beside myself knows better what the weather data I get from them really means for my flight. I never ever went in such a situation again.
Regarding money, I am an investor and trader. My investment experience however is far deeper. Plus I said I went through a school of economics. That’s more than just to know what roi means. So, I know how investors think and I know how a businessman thinks and I know how a banker thinks, because I worked there. Nobody of them if they do their job good would just believe in what the press comes up with. They all do their own analyzing. And I do, too. I started this process more than a decade ago. Beside of that I travel often between the US and the EZ. So, I have a pretty good picture what the ppl at the streets are doing here and there. That all together give at least to me a nice picture what fits into my calculations of inflation and other things.
However, as I said. Whoever wants just to believe somebody else, no issue with that. I just talk about my individual opinion here.
This question is a little off topic and probably reveals alot about my economic niavity, but is something I never really found an answer to, and have wondered about it.
As we all know the 18 century the West went through the Industrial revolution where the countries moved from mostly rural and farming and created a large industrial and manufacturing base, over the past 50 years we have seen that dissolving especially in manufacturing, and most goods are imported I have often wondered how can this sustain itself, but the other day it dawned on me to ask this question.
Are we seeing the end of the industrial revolution in the West where our countries economies have moved on from being based on manufacturing and industry, to being based on investment, and is this where our economic and financial problems lie ? Is it because our countries are now so dependant on investments that these financial catastrophes like 2009 and those prophesised by some analysts are so entirely possible, and as investments by nature can be so volatile are we likely to see these kinds of world wide financial crashes become more common ?
Good question, SDC, and maybe worth an own thread. I do not have THE answer. I just think it’s all cycles related. If you look at old and long gone societies like the Empire of Rome or the Greeks (no, not again, LOL!) and other empires, whatever great they were, they all falled apart.
I guess it’s like life in general is. New things are born, grow, get older and die. Making free room for new things. If old things would never die, there would not be room for new things. Anyways, technology will survive, as we still use also sort of inventions of the old empires. Because the knowledge survives. And if I talk about societies falling apart that is a slooow process.
Pretty much SDC.
History is repeating itself. The US, as well as the UK has shifted from manufacturing, and growing, to financial. That alone will cause a decline.
Money itself does nothing. Investing wisely still needs someone making something or doing something to grow profitably.
Read up on the fall of the Roman Empire. There are some some very scary parallels. From a different perspective, I just read a Jim Rodgers short article where he said the big moves for the next three decaded will come in growing, and mining. That tells me he doesn’t have a whole lot of faith in our current fiscal management.
Basics goods, Manufacturing, Agriculture, Commodities and EDUCATION are the future of mankind so prosperity will follow them.
We know that the financial system as it is, is like a drug junkie… needs more and more. The big ponzi scheme.
At some point money is useless. You can NOT eat it. What I am saying might be weird for some of you in Europe and North America, but I live in South America and been through (real life) hyperinflation cause by goverment’s printing machine.
Until we hit the real bottom, West will suffer these crashes and East will flourish.
Last 30 years i lived for short periods of time in USA, before kids in USA wanted to be the next Neil Armstrong… now they want to be the next american idol…
As jim rogers says… you don’t teach self-esteem, you earn it…
Hmmm… I’m no analyst, but have long believed that the decline in our western manufacturing base in favour of the service sector is a bad move. Its not what built nations and empires gentlemen. :19:
I’ve been through two depressions… the 80’s and again now. Frankly, if I should live so long, I don’t want to see a third. I lost everything in the 80’s crash! Interest rates going up daily… had to robb Peter to pay Paul on credit cards when it hit 16%. Sold my house and just covered what I owed and walked away with zero! And I do mean zero… lost the wife and four kids as well! (just for the record… in time three of the four came to live with me). 
I got lucky in between and bought a place outright and am sitting in it now as I right this with a new wife and eight kids! LOL!!! My UK home has devalued by around 40% from two years ago. Luckily I’m not in negative equity (I believe in the States you call it under water) but as soon as I am able, I’ll off load it.
So there you have it guys… there’s no sure thing in life or the financial markets… keep your powder dry and MM tight! [B]BC[/B]… only guarantee your going to get in life is to buy a toaster! Now you get the joke? LOL!!!
Pretty depressing post for the weekend… sorry guys! 
But hey… Sunday/ Monday is a new day… lets make hay while the world around us collapses! AKA George Sorrus! LOL! 
No follow up posts guys? Its the weekend… where’s [B]D-pip [/B]and ‘fractal rock’ when you need him? LOL!!!
Sorry, your post was just so depressing that I lost the will to post :(. Lol. Also, I recently bought my first toaster which did not come with any guarantee… Looks like the recession is really bad! hahaha
Note my sarcasm.
Ah… understand… it must be an American toaster? Dumb ass… should have bought a Chinese one… duh! LOL!!! Thats better! :18:
Haha, you got me there RC
Well if I know you half as well as I think I do… you’ll pick up some points on the open. Good pippin Scooby! :18:
There are no american toasters anymore. Just yellow toasters. Same warranty?
There are still some made here, but due to commodities increases, their size is diminished.
All that’s left are the bare necessities.
Genuine Pyramid Toaster by Jacob Bromwell� Made in USA
Good evening MT. And I guess even the genuine American toaster has some parts in it from China, lol. 
Well, why not. What I get from it: Transportation expenses for moving something around the world are lower than emplyoment expenses in the US/EZ. That goes until fabrication in China gets as expensive as US employment - transportation expenses.
I bought my washer in Texas from China. So, it’s not that Maytag style machine, lol. But it works good. In Germany I bought Siemens. Works good also. What I never get: Cars and trucks are really cheap in the US, but washers are damn expensive. If I would have bought a modern american washer, it was as expensive as the washer from Siemens and China together and a little more.
Looks like a weekly long off 1.41.
Get yourself a gas dryer… had a 32 amp electric before, now save 60%… times is hard!