I’m looking for 1.41, possibly lower
I think it will go lower.
Price is hopping back and forth between 61.8 fib and 50 fib looking suspiciously like a short, but I wouldnt risk losing the 200 pips. 200 pips is a good days work id take that and not worry about it any further so My advice is TP at the 61.8 fib 1.4280. I think it will retest it at least one more time before it goes anywhere else.
Edit: actually that fib is 1.4283
Good afternoon folks. 
Well, despite the retrace of 70 pips there is still a strong bearish force and it seems like now just bouncing withing the small down channel. How does it look like today? Stable bullish on D1 til MN, still slightly on H4 and stable bearish below.
With the rate increase it becomes harder to hold a short position, so for now i am looking to buy a break above 1.4350 or a dip around 1.4170
Yea, I am looking for longs as well. But rather the dip than the break. My guess is that there is a chance it will not go down that far now and it will check that level later on. As I wrote, my experiments are over now and I am just looking for high probab. trades with very low risk.
On H4 we have a green hammer now which is a bullish indicator in the short term. So, it could go to the top of that down channel now. The only reason I do not enter now is that my risk would be too high. Then there is still this good employment stats from the US and I expect this to be around that tomorrow as well. That might keep the eur in the cage.
If we take the ADP report as a preview for tomorrow’s NFP I think the market will be in risk-on mode
I will wait for the daily candle to close and give me the entry signal
the trade could be:
buy at 1.4355 TP: 1.4690 SL: 1.4210
but as the ADP report looks pretty good and if the NFP is also good as expected that should give the USD a boost no ? Or is it that you are seeing the ECB rate and the Trichet speech as more influential ?
I spent most of yesterday trading back and forth between the 61 and 50 fibs then today there was that break low followed by a break high and I always seem to go the wrong way when I trade on news so i stayed out of it today
I am with you, it should be good for the dollar, but the market likes when a country shows signs of recovery because can take more debt with those worthless pieces of paper
Anything can happen tomorrow. The interest rate decision was priced in already since a couple of weeks. Any surprise today? No. So, that up and down coaster right now is very likely just panic traders not knowing what to do, lol. Some get eaten by sharks. :16:
Technically we are now at the upper tl at the small dw channel. Another big question mark is if that hammer on the daily will keep it’s shape until ny close and how the next candle looks like …
If I look at the momentum, there is a lot more at the lower triangle line than at the top on the weekly, though. So, that looks like more bullish momentum than bearish at all. I really wouldn’t be surprised if we get a highter top this year than what many guess …
Looking at the Daily, I would say that we are in a symmetrical triangle at the moment, have been since the first week of May, hence the mixed signals on the lower timeframes. I took the nice Short on the close of Monday’s Daily bar, but basically I will be flat on this Pair until things sort themselves out a little, particularly with NFP tomorrow. Would like to think that the triangle breaks and the overall picture become clearer next week, but it could take longer than that. In the meantime I think that there are intraday opportunities, but the overall bias is unclear to me, so I am currently intraday only - not picking my overall bias until this triangle breaks!
Hi all,
I’m thinking to short around 1.4380 as I’m hoping there is still downtrend with a little more to go perhaps 1st target 14268 to cut half position then run for another 50 odd pips to around 14220… however the hourly looks like a reversal…expected that we could retrace up to 14400 level with a few week candles on the way up…would be interested in any thoughts or ideas please guys
Thanks in advance
just missed out by 4 pips on my limit to fill, I still think that it may retest 14376 area even from where we are now at 14348, or does anyone think that I have missed the boat…your immediate thoughts would be most welcome
Yea, I meant that daily triangle as well, not weekly, sry.
Well, I am out of this pair right now til it drops for reasonable buy levels. And I am probably not the only one thinking like that …
So, intraday more likely to go down and longer term as I wrote above it is more likely to go higher. We still have some really fancy support tls on the weekly chart and a bull trend there without a dent actually.
Resistance of the dw channel on H1 is at 14375 and support at 14210. Both dropping as in every channel.
Have fun, folks.
Lol sorry for taking you too literally - you had me doubting my triangle spotting when I looked at the Weekly! Indeed, we agree, and even if the lower side of the triangle breaks, 1.4000 will prove interesting and could send Price back up. Fun times ahead!
the upside move was too fast, the down trendline still valid… waiting now for a break above 1.4380 (50 DMA) with the confirmation of the daily pin bar …
No problem!
Yea and if 140 breaks then there is another outer tl on the weekly (lol!) just right now hovering at 13740 around that. However, as you said, the break out of the triangle might deliver some directional bias confirmation …
Chris be careful with hoping. If we would have seen a clear double top on the 10 am 11 am candles at 4369 level I would like a short but as it is I am flat and fat.
The Ever Fat VIPER
just missed out by 4 pips on my limit to fill, I still think that it may retest 14376 area especially from where we are now at 14348, or does anyone think that I have missed the boat…your immediate thoughts would be most welcome
I would think it’s probably just going to settle into it’s pre-NFP drift soon enough. It might drift south a bit more as BC alluded to above as players wait for a better buying area and others who are long from Trichet’s speech might lighten up ahead of NFPs. Though with NY equities and commodities all solidly up on the day and Asian futures looking in decent shape any dip might be fairly limited in my opinion. It’s not one I’m going to try and play myself anyway. I’m going to wait for a dip to hopefully materialise and then I’ll look for a good value long entry.
Yeah thats what I was thinking, the ADP and better expectations on the NFP may squash any apparent short term gains that would have been made by the Euro on the back of Trichets speech.
Oh my, those employment stats are really bad.