Can’t speak for the other PIIGS but it’s definitely not going to happen in Ireland. Ireland is playing the dutiful game - doing what’s asked of us and following the program. We’re doing this so that if things do fall apart completely we can always point to our honest efforts to do the “right thing”. With a fairly successful export-led economy we’d be given access to the credit markets again soon enough at reasonable rates. As such you’re not going to see Ireland jump ship and tell the EU/IMF to go stuff themselves.
Unless things change dramatically for the worse I don’t see that happening either in Italy, Spain or Portugal. I could see it happening in Greece down the road but then they’ve always been a fractious bunch.
Ok, after that delicious brunch here is my opinion. You will never get an idea of what is really going on in other countries, if you are not there. What you get by your professional brainwashers of tv, radio, newspaper, etc. is definitely not the truth. Plus even if they would try to tell you the truth, it is another truth than living in a country under the circumstances what exist.
As I mentioned before in that thread, as long as the beer in the fridge is cold, the soccer club plays not too bad and the iphone is not too expensive, nobody will go against their government. Ask your neighbors or somebody else if they would do that. In the US you might find some more (tea parties are a good example), but at least it is a hard and frosty path to fight for your rights. If at court or with your bare hands. That has never changed in a thousand years. Okay, a thousand years they had no soccer teams and no iphone.
Look at the soviet union and other socialistic empires. Look at Cuba. Not far away from Reno, right? Have you been there? Have you looked what ppl there can buy in stores? Politicians know how to keep the crowd silent. They have the mass media to tell you what they want you to believe and most believe it right away.
As always, the mass media explanations regarding the election on Sunday is really ridiculous. As if the Germans only and first problem would be the bailouts, lol. People here elect more social parties, because the brainwashing is going on and not because there is a bailout. They do not even face issues from the bailout right now, because those issues will take effect in a couple of years, but not now. Actually most people work and who isn’t working gets a good social “bailout” for himself.
People might complain about those bailouts like they complain regarding bad weather, but that’s it. Plus now Berlin has a backing from the constitution court. While Germany does not have a constitution at all. Just a “base law”.
Right now, regarding the eur, it’s rather accumulation time. That’s why the press is feeding the sheeples with bad news. The eur flows from the weak to the strong hands and they don’t wanna let you participate.
Technically we have a undervalued eur on the daily and weekly right now.
The thing I look at is the headline news from heads of state and bank rhetorically proclaiming that “the euro can’t fail”. And those headlines are everywhere. Wall Street Journal, CNBC, Reuters, Bloomberg, and about everywhere else. Not including “Der Speigel”.
It reminds me of Bush, Bernanke, and the rest back in 2007 at the start of the economic crisis here. Something was wrong, jobs were starting to disappear, real estate prices had stagnated, retail sales dropped, construction came to a screeching halt, but they said “nothing is wrong”. And “the economy is strong”.
The louder they proclaim the thing they fear will not happen, the more likely it is happening right under our noses.
MT, that is in fact a hint it could be the opposite of what they proclaim. Albeit, and, this is a very big [B]ALBEIT[/B], it is not a warranty. As I mentioned already, the euro is worth 50 usd cents if you compare how far you can drive with it in the home region, but that is nothing what is priced in. That tulips in the middle age were that expensive was not backed by any facts or values. Ppl are very irrational if it comes to prices. Another example is this hp web pad offer right now for 99 bucks. You can see people almost fight against each other to get one, while you may get a tablet book for 60 bucks without any problem. It’s just not from hp.
Regarding “Der Spiegel”: It was a good news magazine 30 years ago, but the founder is already dead and the guys who print that magazine actually are 100% left wing sympathizers. They do not even write only lies, no they write lies and the truth in a nice mixture, so that you can read something and check that with something you know and can see it is not a lie and then you read all the other stuff which is a lie and would think it is true as well. Like propaganda works. Reading such papers is as useful as brain cancer. That’s why I wouldn’t read anything from those sources.
If you look at the last century and the twenties and thirties, we are in a similar cycle. Particular if you look at the politics of Germany right now, there is not really much of a difference. The only difference actually is that the crowd has to eat and no problems with the very near future.
Well, back to the eur. As I mentioned before, it could also go to 150 and above and I wouldn’t be surprised. The technical chart picture on the weekly and monthly suggest it more than a drop. If you look at the price levels of the last months, it is no secret that the eur did not drop for long below 140. So, there is obvious “somebody”, who accumulates at that level. And just let me assumme that is not a retail trader like you or me, lol.
Just keep in mind, there can be no monetary union among countries that still control their own economies.
Without political, and fiscal union, it just can’t work long term.
The state of Germaneese can’t be too far away huh?
Okay, I knew that, but just didn’t want to say, lol.
As I said, I don’t give anything on fiat currencies. The buck as the fiber as any currency printed will go back to it’s intrinsic value sooner or later. They work for a couple of decades and then it’s over again: Rien nes va plus. I do also see it like you that in the long term this will happen to the fiber. The only variable here is “long term”.
My point of view is that a currency can inflate or devalue as long as the people can still use it. If politicians create such a artificial money, they have an interest that the currency survives as long as they have power. Look at the buck and that it devalued against gold in 40 years more than 98% now. Do the people ask for a new currency? No. The eur devalued 30% in the last 10 years against gold and slower in those 10 years than the buck. Against gas and some other primary goods it devalued 50%. In fact we have an inflation of 7% a year. Does that look actually it will come to an end soon? I don’t think so.
The piigs have problems, but Greece is imho the worst country. And then look when was the year when Greece joined the currency union. They are not 10 years a member. So, even if they would leave the union, that wouldn’t destroy the fiber. That’s just what politicians want to tell you and me so that they can continue with their hobby: The fiber. Plus later on the oligarchic euro zone economy and fiscal union, controlled by Brussels.
The weekly and montly charts say more bullish than bearish probability. Daily stays in ranging, but 200 ema clearly pierced.
My fundamental thinking based on the s&p and other stock indis say that those stocks will tank soon. Which means a rising buck in the short term and a medium rising xau price.
My economic knowledge tell me Obama can’t create jobs, because he is not the boss of a company. He just wanna get elected again, so he tells everything what makes him looking nice and beautiful.
If you look behind Obamas smoke and mirror tactics, you can see he is not convinced of a growing economy with less job seekers. If he would believe that, he would not say one word regarding the growing population of the jobless. Because if the faction of the jobless would decrease, they would not be a big enough pool of voters to get trapped into such lies.
The EUR/USD has gapped down about 100 pips and is currently in the low 1.35’s. I think there will be a bounce from here and price will rise to 1.3838 where the previous support was, and from there, price will continue in its downwards trend.
What do you think of that analysis, do you think it’s sound?
It is possible that it could go back up, but when the drachma is now trading in certain banks on a “when available” basis, the handwriting is on the wall for a rather steep plunge.
