Four months ago, the price action on this pair moved southward from a consolidation zone. It entered another consolidation zone in November. The November print was bearish but price action has moved northward to retest its high. Current price action is bullish but it has not taken out the November high. Although it is important to remember that price action is in a consolidation zone on the monthly time frame, technically the bigger outlook is still bearish.
On the weekly time frame, price action was operating in a range (between 0.71680 and 0.76910) from February 2016 to June 2017. It then breached the range northward in July to enter another area of consolidation which has held as resistance since May 2015. After a period of sideways operation in the zone, price action turned around southward. It has now moved into the upper part of the consolidation zone seen between February 2016 and June 2017. Price action has ranged in that area since mid-November. However, last week, a bullish candlestick was formed which pushed price northward but bears intervened to restrain a break of the zone northward. If bulls succeed with a follow through, we may see them target the 0.77690 area. Technically, bears are likely to give bulls some fight. This may result in a sideways operation in the early part of this week before a further southward push by bears. A likely target for bears is the minor support around the 0.73750 area.
On the daily time frame, price action is respecting a resistance trendline (navy colour) from the high of September 8, 2017. Although the order flow is mixed, bears are still very much influential. For much of last week, bulls took price northward but bears restrained the move on Friday. The Friday candlestick printed bearish but we may see some struggle in the attempt of bears to take price further south as price action is in a major support zone. However, there may be a retracement to test the resistance trendline before any bearish turnaround. Should bears succeed in a follow through we may see the 0.74970 area exposed as a target.
On the H4 time frame, price action is respecting a resistance trendline (magenta colour) from the high of September 22, 2017. A descending channel was formed when the resistance trendline is aligned with a support trendline from the lows of recent candlesticks. The most recent price action is at the distal or channel resistance line. There, a flag pattern formed on Thursday and early part of Friday last week but has been broken southward. We may expect bears to follow through with a further southward move this week. The 0.75360/0.75103 zone is an immediate support zone and may be attractive to bears as an initial target. Attempts by bulls to push price northward may be hindered by the resistance trendline (navy colour) seen on the daily time frame.
Until last week, price action on this pair has been ranging for two weeks. Last week, a bearish candlestick breached below the monthly central pivot. A bullish candlestick which formed five weeks ago has acted as control or master candlestick, and last week price action retested its low but could not significantly breach it. Should the bears follow through this week, they may target the low of the doji-like candlestick formed on the weekly time frame six weeks ago, which is in the 1.66190 area. Also, the support trendline (red colour) formed from the low of February 2017 is likely to be attractive as a target for bears but this is still far away.
On the daily time frame, price action has been operating in an ascending channel (bound by navy coloured lines) for quite a while. Last week, price action breached the channel support line. But the bearish move lacked follow through as the bulls were still influential, given the ‘wicky’ and small candlesticks formed on Thursday and Friday last week. Thus, we may see some consolidation or retracement of price action in the early part of this week. Should bulls wrestle control, price action may pull back into the channel and bulls may target the immediate resistance around the 1.71595 area, which is in confluence with the monthly central pivot. However, should bears manage a follow through, we may see price action move further southward. In which case, the immediate horizontal support, which is around the 1.66920 area, may be an intial target for bears. This is likely to expose the 1.63650 handle.
On the H4 time frame, between September and November 2017, price action was consolidating in an ascending channel (bound by navy coloured lines), which was seen on the daily time frame. This has been followed by a descending channel (bound by magenta coloured lines) since December 2017. We may expect price action to continue its move southward and this is supported by the technicals on the H4 time frame. However, given the fact that price action was consolidating last week Friday, we may see the consolidation to continue for a while, or even see a pullback, in the early part of this week before a bearish continuation materializes.
I am bearish on this pair. However, that does not mean I will be entering a trade straight away. I usually wait for price action to give me a clue and the market to show its hands. First, I rarely trade on Monday, particularly the early part of it. Second, I expect a pullback or a consolidation to an area of value on the D1 (or H4) time frame or a breakdown of a consolidation (or flag) southward on the H1 time frame; this will enable me decide at which location and time to go southward on this pair.
The pair has been displaced northward since April 2017. But price action went into consolidation between September and November 2017. On the weekly time frame, price action is yet to break out of the consolidation in spite of attempt made last week by bulls to take out the high of the range. We may expect bulls to make a further attempt to take price action to the next resistance around the 136.440 area; this is an area traversed southward and last visited by price action in October 2015.
On the daily time frame, price action is respectimg a support trendline (red colour) from the low of June 14, 2017. Toward the end of last week, price action made an attempt to break out of a range created since mid-September 2017 but bears restrained the attempt. Nevertheless, bulls still remained in control; the small candlesticks formed on Thursday and Friday last week were basically in favour of bulls. Should bulls follow through on their move and successfully break out further northward, we may see the 136.440 handle exposed.
On the H4 time frame, price action has been consolidating for quite a while. However, last week Thursday, it broke out of the consolidation northward. Last Friday, price action retraced to retest a mini-support trendline (blue colour) and then disposed northward. The trechnicals support further northward disposition. But should price action break below the mini-support trendline, we may see bears push further southward, perhaps to retest the main ascending trendline (red colour) seen on the daily time frame. The monthly central pivot (133.074) or the area around 133.150 may be attractive to bears.
On the monthly time frame, the descending trend that began in February 2002 witnessed a 78.6 Fib retracement in January 2016. After a period of consolidation, price action headed southward in May 2017 around the 61.8 Fib zone. A retracement northward took price action to a strong resistance zone where a master or control candlestick was formed in October 2017. That candlestick has not yet been breached by price action since. Although the candlestick formed in November was ambivalent, the December 2017 candlestick is bearing southward, which may be an indication that bears are targeting the low of the master candlestick.
On the weekly time frame, price action on this pair has been operating in a descending wedge (bound by chocolate coloured lines) for quite a while, which is a corrective mode of an upward impulsive phase that started in January 2014. Three price waves have formed within the wedge and recent price action is around the mid-line of the wedge where it has been ranging since the third week of October 2017.
On the daily time frame, price action has moved far below the distal part of the wedge formation seen on the weekly time frame. It has formed a triangle (bound by navy coloured lines), resulting from a downward impulsive phase which is now in a corrective phase. An ascending channel, formed with a resistance trendline (magenta colour) from the highs of the recent candlesticks, can be seen as from mid-September 2017. Price action is squeezed around a confluence of resistance; including the apex of the triangle, the triangle resistance line and the horizontal resistance zone around the 1.29030 area. This situation saw price action hit the channel support line several times last week. Should bears manage to break down the channel support line, a likely target is the 1.25600/1.24530 zone. This will require a bearish follow-through of the doji-like candlestick formed last week Friday. Bulls may find it rather difficult to break through the northward barriers and take price further to the upside from the current location of price action; but this cannot be ruled out. However, such a move is likely to be curtailed.
I am bullish on this pair. Should the mini-support trendline (blue colour) on the H4 time frame hold, I will look for an opportunity to trade northward. Alternatively, should price action breach it southward, I will wait for retracement to an area of value, say around 133.074, before looking for a buy trading opportunity. This area is proximal to the 61.8 Fib zone of the swing from the low of December 15, 2017 to the high of December 21, 2017.
Price action on this pair seems a bit ambivalent; but bears have a slight edge. The bigger time frames, e.g. monthly and weekly, indicate that there is room for bears to take price action southward, particularly to retest the low of a master or control candlestick formed on the monthly time frame in October 2017. However, it is important to wait for price action to break down the triangle support line on the daily time frame with a daily close before a sell trade is considered. This will require a bearish follow-through of the doji-like candlestick formed last week Friday.
Here’s a technical update on the EURJPY. It is apparent from the monthly time frame that bulls will be contending with a series of barriers in the shape of horizontal resistance (shown in purple coloured lines) and resistance trend lines (chocolate coloured). Bears may fare better as the current location of price action is far away from the significant horizontal support (navy coloured line) and support trendline (navy coloured).
Price action on this pair is located at the 61.8 Fib retracement zone of the downward swing from the high of November 2014 to the low of June 2016. On the weekly time frame, price action has been ranging for several weeks between the 50 and 61.8 Fib zones. Last week, bulls attempted to breach the range northward but the attempt did not go far. However, we may see bulls make another attempt this week, particularly as the immediate resistance, around the 137.080 area was last tested by price action in August 2015.
On the daily time frame, price action has been respecting a support trendline (navy colour) from the low of April 2017. A pullback to this trendline occurred during the middle of last week and we may expect further bullish move in the days ahead, particularly if an inner support trendline (chocolate colour) holds. Three northward impulsive price waves could be seen on the daily time frame and the recent consolidation, which seemed to have ended last week, is likely to give way to a fourth northward price wave. Alternatively, bears may push price action back into the range or retest the outer support trendline (navy colour) before any northward continuation, particularly as the recent bullish candlesticks have not been significant size-wise.
The EURUSD has disposed northward since December 2016. On the weekly timeframe, price action consolidated for several weeks at the 38.2 Fib retracement zone of the downward swing from the high of May 2014 to the low of March 2015. Price action is respeccting a support trendline (navy colour) but a resistance trendline (chocolate colour) has constrained upward move of price action since October 2017. It will take a strong bullish intent to significantly break the resistance trendline northward. However, we may see a test of the high of the bullish spike seen in the first week in September 2017, which is around the 1.20935 area, this week before any retracement southward. A major area that will be attractive to bulls is the 1.23340 handle. But this is a location where bears may likely drive price action southward.
On the daily time frame, it is clear that price action has breached the resistance trendline (chocolate colour) seen on the weekly time frame. Basically, the trendline has flipped to a support trendline and the technicals on the daily time frame are in support of bulls. It is tempting to conceive of the consummation of a ‘Head-and-Shoulders’ pattern on the daily time frame with the close of the daily candlestick on Friday. The apparent neckline is indicated by a red-coloured trendline and the technical projection is likely to give a target around the 1.23340 area. It should be interesting to see what happens in the next few days.
On the H4 time frame, price action has witnessed a 32.8 Fib retracement of the upward swing from the low of April 20, 2017 to the high of September 8, 2017. An outer support trendline (magenta colour) is still in play even though price action has moved further upward from it to respect an inner support trendline (chocolate colour); which is an indication of increased northward momentum. Price action is likely to move northward to around the 1.20895 area before any pullback. It is important to note that the outer support trendline (magenta colour) on the H4 time frame is equivalent to the support trendline seen on the weekly time frame.
Price action on this pair has been in consolidation for a while… From the standpoint of the monthly time frame, it can be seen that bears were trying to push price action southward to test the low of the bullish candlestick formed in October 2017. That low is at the support zone around the 1.24320 area and is likely to be an initial target for bears.
On the weekly time frame, an attempt made by bears to breach the consolidation area southward was constrained by bulls. The overall market structure shows that price action is in a correction and has formed a descending wedge (bound by chocolate coloured trendlines). Three price waves have formed within the wedge but a fourth price wave has stalled. Instead, an ascending flag (bound in magenta coloured lines) could be seen. The flag was breached southward last week and is likely to result in further southward move to head towards the support zone around the 1.24380 area in the days ahead.
On the daily time frame, it is apparent that from May 2017, price action has formed three impulsive price waves southward with two accompanying corrective waves. The third corrective wave started in September 2017 and formed a wedge pattern (bound in magenta coloured lines). This wedge was broken southward by price action last week but we may see a retracement in an attempt to retest the broken support channel line and flip it to resistance before a southward moves gains momentum. It is possible that price action may turn around before reaching the broken channel support as the 1.26320 area could act as a resistance zone, albeit a minor one. Nevertheless, a southward turnaround from an upward retracement is likely to expose the 1.21570 handle.
I am bullish on this pair. However, I will wait for a retest of the inner support trendline (chocolate colour) on the H4 time frame before looking for a buy trading opportunity. Should price action breach this trendline southward, I will wait for a retest of the outer support trendline (magenta colour) on the H4 time frame before looking for a buy opportunity. But a breach of this outer support trendline would negate my bullish bias.
An interesting thing about XAUUSD is that technically it is consolidating; price action is operating in a triangle on the W1 tf. As current price action is very close to the tip of the triangle and the triangle resistance, even though northward, we may see a stalling of momentum.
USDCAD continued its southward disposition last week. This represents a follow-through of the breakout two weeks ago from the consolidation that held for over eight weeks earlier. Wave count on the weekly time frame indicates that price action is on an impulsive southward move of a corrective wave. It may lead to further southward move and a target for bears is likely to be the 1.20840 area.
On the daily time frame, price action gave a good-bye kiss to a support trendline (navy colour) and turned it to resistance on December 19, 2017. Since then, the order flow has been in favour of bears and the technicals on the daily time frame are synced for further southward move.
On the H4 time frame, price action is on a northward retracement. A much likely turnaround area of the retracement is the immediate minor resistance around the 1.24680 area (highlighted with magenta coloured line); this area is in confluence with the 50.0 Fib retracement zone of the most recent swing down. But this retracement may extend to the 61.8 Fib zone, around the 1.25080 area, before a southward turnaround.
Four months ago, in October 2017, price action on GBPNZD entered a resistance zone. It turned around in December 2017 but it is still within the zone. Will it result in a flip? Only time will tell. Neverthrless, on the monthy timeframe, it is apparent that price action is heading southward towards the support line of the zone located around the 1.88970 area. The low of the bullish pinbar-like candlestick formed in November 2017 is likely to be a target for bears.
On the weekly time frame, price action is respecting a resistance trendline from the high of September 2017. Eight weeks ago, price action retested the trendline and validated it, and, for the next three weeks, consolidated around it before being rejected southward. The rejectoion candlesticks formed at a zone that is in confluence with a significant resistance and proximal to a major moving average on my system. Although the most recent price action three weeks ago operated sideways, it is preparatory to further southward move.
On the H4 time frame, price action has rejected two resistancde trendlines: an inner one (blue coloured) and an outer one (magenta coloured). These two resistance lines are likely to form a resistance zone for price actiom on the H4 time frame. The next horizontal support is around the 1.87200 area, which is about 140 pips away from the location of current price action. Should bears find it difficult to break this support southward, we may see price action retrace northward to this resistance zone or at least to the outer resistance trendline before a southward momentum could materialize.
Price action on the EURNZD has been operating in an ascending channel (bound in purple coloured lines) on the weekly time frame for quite a while. Last week, a bearish pinbar formed around a significant resistance zone, the 1.69730 area. We may see sideways operation until bears tackle the minor support in the 1.66470/1.66250 area. Should bears break this minor support, the major one around the 1.63710 area will be exposed.
On the H4 time frame, two descending trendlines (magenta coloured) from intra-day candlesticks formed a confluence of resistance zone with the horizontal resistance around the 1.69730 area. Price action has rejected this zone southward and is respecting the inner resistance trendline. The 1.66470/1.66340 area is the next minor support and may be an initial target for bears. Thereafter, we may see a sideways operation or a major pullback northward.
Price action on this pair has been operating in a range of more than 650 pips (between 76.573 and 82.933) since November 2016. On the weekly time frame, four price waves have formed within the range; a fifth is bearing north and has moved beyond the middle of the range.
On the daily time frame, price action is operating in a corrective descending flag (bound by chocolate coloured lines) formed since late 2017. Five price waves have been formed within the flag; the fifth is at the resistance line of the flag. Price action is respecting a support trendline (navy coloured) from the low of December 7, 2017. As price action has reached the flag resistance, we may see a sideways operation or retracement southward to retest the support trendline before any further northward move as the major direction is northward. A bullish continuation is likely to see bulls target the major horizontal resistance around the 82.933 area although they have to tackle a few minor barriers along the way.
On the H4 time frame, price action has moved further northward from the support trendline (navy coloured) seen on the daily time frame to respect an inner support trendline (magenta coloured). These two trendlines may form a significant support zone for any southward retracement of price action. The 84.240 area is a horizontal support zone that may provide a confluence and could interest bears as a target of a southward retracement before a northward tutrnaround.
