Price action on this pair has disposed northward for quite a while. On the weekly time frame, it was obvious that bears had been making effort to curtail the northward move since two weeks ago. Last week they succeeded in driving price action below the significant support around the 1.41200 area. Bulls resisted the move and a doji-like candlestick printed as the outcome of the session close. However, price action is still located in an S/R zone and we can expect a sideways operation before directional clarity is obtained.
On the daily time frame, price action is operating in a consolidation mode (bound in chocolate coloured lines). As the location of price action is too far from the mean and in confluence with a resistance zone, we may expect a pullback before any further northward momentum can materialize. Price action may retrace to the monthly central pivot (around 1.39960) and may extend to the next support around the 1.38350 area. Technically the short-term mode favours bears but the medium-term direction is technically synced with bulls. That will be the case unless price action breaks below a support trendine (navy) from the low of November 13, 2017 on a daily close basis.
Price action on GBPJPY has struggled for a while within a significant resistance zone. From the last week of December 2017 to the middle of January 2018, price action on the weekly time frame has been largely sideways. Last week, bulls made a strong move and pushed price action to the next resistance zone around the 155.680 area. Before the close of session, however, bears briefly pushed price action back although the candlestick printed was relatively bullish.
On the daily time frame, price action has been operating in a wedge (bound by navy coloured lines) for a while. Most recent price action is located around the distal (or resistance) line of the wedge. Besides, a resistance trendline (navy) from the high of September 21, 2017 is in confluence with the wedge resistance line. A bearish pinbar printed last Friday around this confluence of resistance. There is a likelihood that bears will follow through with further southward move in the early part of this week. A likely target of bears is the channel support, which may extend to the 151.280 area, the immediate horizontal support. Technically, I do not see momentum for any bullish move until a southward retracement has taken place.
On the H4 time frame, it can be seen that technically the impulsive trend is northward and a simple wave count shows that recent price action is in a corrective phase. But the technical mood is southward with a possible initial target around the 151.280 area. Thus, the technicals support a bearish bias in the short term.
The pair has been ranging for quite a while. On the weekly time frame, price action has been operating in an ascending triangle (chocolate) since November 2016. Last week, a relatively big bearish candlestick broke the wedge support line and hit the immediate horizontal support around the 83.990 area. However, before the close of the weekly session, bulls managed to push price action up to the 85.010 area. It should be noted that price action since October 2017 has been ranging in the 38.2 – 61.8 Fib retracement zone of the swing down from the high of November 2014 to the low of June 2016. Much likely we may expect bears to take the price action further southward should they break below the 83.990 area, which is in confluence with the 38.2 Fib and a significant horizontal support. Looking left of the attached weekly chart, we can see that the impulsive wave is southward.
On the daily time frame, recent price action is around the support line of the ascending triangle seen on the weekly time frame. Bulls were curtailing the gains made by bears in the early part of last week but the order flow context is very much under the influence of bears. However, we may see a retracement northward or a sideways operation in the early part of this week before further southward momentum is achieved, moreso that price action is a bit far (more than 130 pips) from the mean. A likely target of bulls for any retracement is the 86.230 area.
On the H4 time frame, we can see that price action has entered a support zone which it traversed northward in June 2017. It is natural to expect some reaction at such a zone, this may be a retracement or a sideways/ranging operation before any further southward momentum. A likely target for bulls is the immediate resistance around the 86.230 area, while bears are likely to be interested in the immediate support around the 81.805 area. Of course, there are minor barriers for both bulls and bears to tackle along the way before reaching the potential targets.
I am bearish on this pair. However, I will wait for a retracement of price action to within the 85.010/86.230 zone before I look for a sell trading opportunity.
Price action on USDJPY has largely been sideways since March 2017, although the range of consolidation spans between 114.430 and 108.400; which is more than 550 pips. On the weekly time frame, in the past three weeks price action has moved to around the proximal end of the range and has formed a micro consolidation or range spanning about 260 pips. Last week, an attempt by bears to break down the range was curtailed by bulls.
On the H4 time frame, price action has entered a support zone which it traversed northward on September 11, 2017. Last week, price action ranged around the zone before it retraced to the mean. We may expect a bearish continuation this week. An initial target for bears is likely to be the 107.550 area, the low of September 8, 2017; this may extend to the 107.310 area.
Three weeks ago, price action slightly disposed bearish after a 78.6 Fib retracement of the swing down from the high of June 2016 to the low of January 2017. This was followed by an indecision candlestick, an inside bar, two weeks ago. Last week saw a major move by bears to push price below the low of the bullish candlestick formed three weeks ago; which they succeeded in doing. Current price action is now located at a horizontal support around the 1.38100 area, which is in confluence with the 61.8 Fib zone. Furthermore, an ascending trendline (chocolate) is still in play as support. The technicals on the weekly time frame are synced for further bearish move. But we may expect price action to struggle around the 1.35890 area, which represents a confluence of horizontal support, a trendline support and a 50 Fib zone. Until then, I see bears making a strong showing.
On the daily time frame, recent price action has been largely bearish and the order flow context is very much in favour of bears. A support trendline (navy) has been broken southward but the ascending trendline (chocolate) seen on the weekly time frame is still in play. The zone between the two trendlines is likely to act as support for a while until the weekly ascending trendline (chocolate) is broken down. Alternatively, price action may swing north and establish a bullish mode, particularly when it reaches the 1.35890 area or bounces off the weekly ascending trendline (chocolate).
On the H4 time frame, price action has retraced northward and is consolidating around the support trendline (navy) seen on the daily time frame. A piercing formation was printed on Friday and was followed up by some sideways operation within the mean area and around the support trendline (navy). This situation suggests the likelihood of a bearish continuation. If bears manage to break down the horizontal support around the 1.38100 area, we may expect them to target the 1.35890 area. However, this does not preclude price action from turning northward around the 1.38100 area.
I will step aside on Monday for the market on this pair to show its hands; particularly as the current location of price action, and the support trendline, is too close to the horizontal support around the 1.38100 area.
Technically the pair is struggling in the middle of a few consolidation patterns - a weekly ascending channel (chocolate lines) and its mid-line and a support trendline (navy) from the daily time frame. Basically, the current mode is up but there is little potential for much gain until the mid-line is broken.
rice action on USDJPY is entering a support zone (bound by magenta horizontal lines) which has held as an S/R zone on a multi-year basis. We may see some sideways price action in the zone or even a possible northward retracement. However, if bears strongly breakdown the zone, we may see them target the next major support around the 101.940 area (bound by purple horizontal lines).
XAUUSD (GOLD) has broken northward of the mid-line of its ascending channel operation by more than 240 pips on the W1 tf. This portends a further northward move, particularly as it is from the 50 Fib retracement of the most recent swing up from the low of 1237.25 and represents a continuation of the upward wave.
Technically, the EURUSD is northward bearing and has been so for a long while. The recent southward mode, not yet fully recovered, is merely a pullback and for profit taking. The price action on the pair is now entering a significant resistance zone last visited in May 2014 but there is room for further pullback or sideways operation before the zone is hit. This zone is in confluence with, or proximal to, the 68.2 Fib area of the southward drop from the high of May 2014. See attached MN chart (significant resistance zone is bound by magenta coloured lines).
In January 2018, price action on EURUSD entered a resistance zone (1.22550/1.25790) it last trasversed southward in December 2014. Last month’s candlestick printed bullish but with wicks at both ends; indicating that bulls were facing strong bearish resistance. Apparently, we are likely to be seeing some ranging operation of price action in the zone for quite a while.
On the weekly time frame, price action has been ranging around the 1.22290/1.25420 area for four weeks. As price action has found it difficult to break above the resistance zone, it is likely that we see an attempt by the market to bear southward and regroup for another onslaught on the zone. Last week, an inverted hammer-like candlestick was formed around the zone; which portends the likelihood of a bearish follow through of price action in the days ahead. An ascending trendline (chocolate) from the low of April 2017 is still very much in play and bears may target a retest of the trendline. Such a move southward is likely to expose the horizontal support around the 1.20500 area. However, should bears fail to break down the trendline, bulls are likely to seize the initiative to turn around price action northward.
On the H4 time frame, price action has been consolidating in an ascending channel (magenta) for quite a while. Recent price action is bearing southward from the channel rresistance area. An initial target of bears is the channel support or the horizontal support around the 1.22630 area. However, a micro-support trendline (navy) formed by recent price action may be a barrier for a southward move. So, should bears fail to clear this barrier, we may see bulls turn price action northward toward the channel resistance, perhaps to relaunch an attack on the 1.25790 area.
Current market on USDJPY may disappoint traders who make buy trading decisions on the basis of ‘oversold’ indicator readings. On the weekly time frame, price action on the USDJPY has ranged in a horizontal channel (bound by magenta coloured horizontal lines) between 108.200 and 114.150 since April 2017. But between January 21, 2018 and first of February 2018, price action consolidated around the 108.360/110.275 area. Last week, a bearish candlestick broke down the channel support, moved below the major consolidation area, and drove down to hit the immediate support around the 105.460 area. However, just before the close of session, bulls resisted further move but it was clear that bears held sway. We may see bears attempt to take price action further southward this week but bulls appear poised to resist the move. Technically, the result of this struggle is likely to be a sideways operation of price action in the early part of this week before further bearish continuation. An initial target of bears is likely to be the 104.330 area, a minor support zone; this may expose the 104.300 handle.
Technicals on the daily time frame are disposed southward. However, the present location of price action is a bit far from the mean. Therefore, we may likely see a northward pullback of price action before any further bearish momentum can be sustained. A possible target of bulls for such a pullback is the immediate resistance around the 107.380/108.040 area. This would be a retest of the horizontal channel support (magenta) broken down by price action last week and flipped as resistance.
Price action on EURJPY has been operating in an ascending channel (bound by chocolate coloured lines) for quite a while. On the weekly time frame, price action has been operating above the mid-line (magenta) since June 25, 2017. Two weeks ago, a relatively big bearish candlestick rejected the channel resistance and was followed up by a smaller bearish candlestick last week. However, last week’s candlestick barely managed to break the low of the previous week’s candlestick and was an indecision candlestick by nature. This indicates that bears were not fully in control and bulls are likely to give bears a fight, at least by market open this week. Nevertheless, short-term technicals are synced in support of bears and we may expect bears to attempt a test of the midline or the immediate horizontal support around the 130.500 area, as an initial target.
Looking left on the weekly time frame, as a technical trader I am particularly impressed by a larger ascending channel (bound by black coloured lines) earlier formed and the bearish impulse of the larger trend. I see a similarity of price action in the current ascending channel and the previous one; which gives further weight to a bearish tone of the EURJPY market.
On the H4 time frame, price action is operating in a descending channel (bound by black lines) but a consolidation pattern (bound by magenta horizontal lines) prevailed on the H4 time for much of last week. Nevertheless, technicals on the H4 time frame are favorably synced for a bearish continuation. The immediate horizontal support around the 130.490 area is a likely target of bears. However, as price action has just broken an area of consolidation, we may see a retest of the area before momentum for a southward move is sustained.
On a short-term basis, I am bearish on this pair. A southward break of the micro trendline (navy) on the H4 time frame would get me interested in looking for a feasible sell trade setup. Alternatively, should bears fail to break down this micro trendline on a daily or H4 closing basis, this will negate my bearish outlook.
The technical outlook is still bearish on the USDJPY but we should be expecting periods of sideways operation and pullbacks along the way, perhaps until the 100.500 area is reached; still a long way off though.
If you are tracking XAUUSD (GOLD), don’t feel tempted to go for a long trade. It is better to wait for price action to enter a significant support zone, preferably a weekly time frame support zone. Technically, the market is still bearish but we may see a reaction for a northward turnaround around the 1315.90 area.
Are you tracking XAUUSD? Be wary of Gold! Why is price action on Gold ambivalent so far? There is still a target of bears southward; remember yesterday’s post and the zone indicated. Any fundamental news may be seized upon to drive price action to the zone before a northward turnaround.
