While south-bound intraday traders/scalpers will be excited by the GBPJPY current southward mood, swing traders may have to watch and plan for a probable northward turnaround of price action around the 147.130/146.510 zone (bound by purple coloured horizontal lines in attached H4 chart).
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
Here’s a video on trading with knowledge of market makers’ techniques. I have no financial interest in the presenter.
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USDJPY Weekly Technical Outlook
Price action on the USDJPY continues to be disposed southward. On the weekly time frame, after a period of consolidation in late January 2018 to the first week in February, bears took price action southward two weeks ago, printing a relatively large bearish candlestick which inched to the immediate support zone around the 105.140 area (magenta). Last week, bulls took price action further northward but the attempt was checkmated by bears, leading to the printing of an inside candlestick; a strong indication that bears are intent on taking price action further southward. We may see bears target the 103.180 area as they push through the 105.140 area (purple) this week. This may expose the 102.350 handle (red). The technical structure on the weekly time frame favours the bears.
Price action on the daily time frame is operating in a descending channel (navy).The candlestick formation and the technical structure are very much in favour of bears. As long as price action does not break out above the channel resistance trendline on a daily closing basis, we can expect bears to continue targetting further southward levels.
On the H4 time frame, although the price action is operating in a descending channel, the bearish candlestick prints are more prominent than the bullish ones, a strong technical indication for further bearish influence. Bears are likely to first take out the minor support around the 105.540 area before we see much resistance from bulls.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
EURJPY Weekly Technical Outlook
Price action is consolidating in a wedge on the monthly time frame. Recent price action bore southward from a resistance zone around the 138.150 area. The immediate support zone is around 126.450 area. An inner support trendline (navy) is too far from current price action and may attract bears as a southward target.
On the daily time frame, price action has broken down an ascending channel (magenta) within which it has operated since September 2017. The technical structure on the daily time frame favours a bearish continuation. A likely target of bears is the 127.830 area, which is confluence with the lowest point of the channel support; this may extend to the 126.430 area.
On the H4 time frame, the angle of the descending trendline (navy) suggests a strong bearish mood. We may not see more than a feeble northward pullback until bears take price action further down. The technicals are synced in favour of bears.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
GBPAUD Weekly Technical Outlook
The northward move of price action on the GBPAUD is apparently being checkmated by bears. In November 2017, price action broke out northward from a horizontal channel or range (magenta) only to enter another horizontal consolidation of a smaller range for the next three months. Currently, price action on the monthly time frame is bearing northward but with limited momentum. It has inched towards a resistance zone (bound by purple coloured horizontal lines) around the 1.80260/1.82700 but has failed to enter it. This zone is likely to be the immediate target of bulls, more so that they have labored for three months to reach it.
The technicals on the weekly time frame are mixed. An outer ascending trendline (red) is still in play and an inner ascending trendline (navy) is still acting as support to price action. But a resistance trendline (magenta) from the highs of recent candlesticks may be a barrier to northward momentum. Besides, price action is struggling in an attempt to reach the next horizontal resistance. Nevertheless, we may see bulls reach this resistance but bears are likely to hinder further move; this may lead to a southward pullback thereafter.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
Consider the analyses done in this video based on market structure. I have no financial interest in the presenter.
Trade safe and prosper.
If you are tracking cable, note that price action on the pair continues its consolidation in a triangular pattern (red) on both the daily and weekly time frames. But there is little room at the moment for directional profit either north or south as both resistance and support trendlines are too close to location of price action. A ‘wait-and-see’ stance will be a good decision at the moment.
Trade safe and prosper.
If you are tracking USDCAD, note that the technicals still favour further northward move and a likely target of bulls is the 1.29160 area.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
GBPJPY Weekly Technical Outlook
Yen has been technically stronger than most of its peers since December 2018. The current risk sentiment, with the uncertainties surrounding Brexit negotiation, presents a favorable fundamental condition to be bearish on GBPJPY. Of course, we should be aware that market perception is key and the prevailing market direction should guide our trading. That being said, on a technical basis, GBPJPY continues to bear southward.
On the monthly time frame, a bearish drop from the high of July 2007 to the low of September 2011 was served a retracement around the 61.8 Fib zone in June 2015. The drop from that zone since June 2015 to the low of October 2016 entered the 32.8/50 Fib retracement zone in January 2018. Price action in February 2018 has turned southward from this Fib zone and we may expect further bearish move this month. The bearish candlestick formed in February 2018 traversed two horizontal support zones southward and technically stronger than the most recent preceding bullish candlesticks. Price action has also breached the monthly pivot southward.
On the weekly time frame, price action has been consolidating in an ascending pattern between an ascending trendline (red) from the low of January 2012 and another (navy) from the low of October 2016. Last week, price action broke below the support trendline (navy) and met a barrier at the horizontal support in the 144.810 area. Traders who include wave theory in their analyses are likely to see further southward impulsive wave. The technicals on the weekly time frame are synced in favour of bears and we may see them target the horizontal support around the 138.950 area.
On the H4 time frame, price action since late February 2018 has been primarily bearish and the order flow context has been much in favour of bears. A resistance trendline (magenta) is very much at play. However, bulls attempted to take price action northward in the latter part of last week Friday; by the early part of this week, they may push for a retracement to retest the trendline or the immediate minor horizontal resistance zone around 146.39/147.370. Such a move is much likely to be corrective. But it is important to remember that there is still a support trendline (navy) below, which was seen on the weekly time frame. Therefore, we may not see a sustained southward momentum until this support trendline is broken down by price action on a daily closing basis. A breakdown of the support trendline on a four-hourly closing basis is likely to require a retest before we can have confidence in a sustained southward momentum.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
EURJPY Weekly Technical Outlook
Basically, price action on the monthly time frame is in a triangular-consolidation (red) but the mode is southward. Last month the candlestick printed on the monthly time frame was solidly bearish. Although the 132.520 area is likely to be attractive for a bullish pullback, we are likely to see further southward move. The 127.900/820 area is an initial area which bears may target as the area have a lot of low-wicks to retest. Should they succeed in this, bears may then target the next horizontal support around the 126.140 area.
On the daily time frame, price action is operating in an ascending wedge (magenta). The current location of price action is around the wedge support trendline. Should bears break down the wedge support trendline, they will have to contend with a support trendline (deep blue) from the most recent candlesicks before further southward momentum can be sustained.
Technically, the H4 time frame offers possible areas we can expect price action to retrace northward to before further southward continuation. One such area is the 131.730/133.040 zone, bound by red horizontal lines on the attached H4 chart. Price action may not get to the zone before turning around as there are a few minor barriers for bulls to deal with but that is the zone I will be watching.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
USDJPY Weekly Technical Outlook
The bearish outlook seen in the past few weeks on the USDJPY still supervenes, basically. However, price action is just about 120 pips from a key horizontal support zone and we may have some sideways price action or a pullback to the north.
On the weekly time frame, the bearish move which broke down a consolidation zone three weeks ago continued but with limited momentum. Last week, price action barely breached the low of the bearish candlestick formed three weeks ago. An ascending trendline (chocolate) from the low of September 2012 was breached three weeks ago but was retested a week after. Last week, price action flipped the trendline to resistance. However, a descending trendline (purple) is likely to act as a confluence factor to the horizontal support zone around the 104.400 area. A break below the 104.400 area is likely to give confidence to bears to target the next support around the 102.990 area.
On the H4 time frame, price action has moved away from the mean and it is very close to a support trendline (purple) seen on the weekly time frame. Bulls were able to take price action a bit northward before the closing session last Friday. Thus, we may see a pullback of price action northward in the early part of this week. A resistance trendline (magenta) on the H4 time frame may be a target of a retest by bulls. Thereafter, we are likely to see a southward turnaround.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
If you are tracking GBPUSD, realize that the bigger picture on the pair is technically in favour of bulls because there is a big gap to be filed around the 1.45330/1.51030 area. However, that’s still a long way off.
Trade safe and prosper.
It is interesting to note that the GBPAUD is technically structured for further bearish move. The current price action is in consolidation (bound by magenta lines) but the primary market structure is strongly to the downside. On the weekly time frame, two southward price waves have been completed, the first one had seen a correction (retracement) but the second price wave is now seeing its correction. The correction has reached the 38.2 Fib zone of the downward swing from the high of August 2015 to the low of October 2016.
Trade safe and prosper.
From the point of view of a swing trader, I still maintain a bearish bias on USDJPY.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
By the technical structure of the GBPUSD, I see the likelihood of a southward pullback to a horizontal support around the 1.35970 area in the early part of next week and with the possibility of testing the support trendline (red) on the weekly time frame before a northward turnaround.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
EURJPY Weekly Technical Outlook
The bearish candlestick formed on the monthly time frame of EURJPY in February 2018 is rather relatively strong, compared to the candlesticks contextual to it. That candlestick formed around the 61.8 Fib zone of the downward swing from the high of December 2014 to the low of June 2016. Much likely we may see a bearish continuation on this pair.
Price action on the weekly time frame continues a southward move but last week saw a retracement northward; which failed to breach the high of the bearish candlestick formed two weeks ago. The location of price action is around an S/R zone and in confluence with the 50 Fib zone of the drop from the high of December 2014 seen on the monthly time frame. We may expect further southward move after a sideways operation in the early part of this week. An initial target of bears is likely to be the immediate minor support around the 127.920 area. Should bears achieve that target, a bigger target is the major support around 122.470 area, the origin of a major northward push in June 2017.
On the daily time frame, price action has rejected an ascending trendline (navy) which acted as support to turn southward, respecting a resistance trendline (magenta).The most recent price action retraced towards this resistance trendline at a confluence of a horizontal resistance around the 131.740 area. The wicky nature of the candlestick formed last Friday indicates the probability of a southward turnaround, perhaps after a sideways operation in the early part of this week. The technicals are synced for a southward move.
Price action on the H4 time frame is operating in a descending channel. The most recent price action is at the distal part of the channel. The candlestick formation is largely with upper shadows and around the horizontal resistance, 131.740. This indicates that bears are likely to take price action further southward and the technicals are synced for this move.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
GBPJPY Weekly Technical Outlook
GBPJPY is operating in a descending channel on the daily time frame (navy). Between Wednesday and Friday last week, price action consolidated around an S/R zone in the 147.490/146.860 area. Very much likely, that area will be flipped as a resistance by price action in the days ahead and bears may use that to target the next horizontal support around the 144.430 area.
On the H4 time frame, price action has formed three price waves in the descending channel (navy). The most recent price action is located around the channel resistance and the candlesticks are rejecting a horizontal resistance around the 147.970/147.530 area. We may see further southward move of price action in the days ahead.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
USDJPY Weekly Technical Outlook
Price action on USDJPY has been consolidating for a while. A triangular consolidation pattern (red) can be seen on the weekly time frame. In the past four weeks, price action has been in consolidation around the support trendline. The current location of price action is proximal to the horizontal support around the 104.800 area. Last week bulls attempted to take price action northward and, early this week, we may see them push further upward to target the high of the bearish candlestick formed two weeks ago, around the 107.560 area; which is in confluence with the monthly pivot.
On the daily time frame, price action is respecting a resistance trendline (black) from the high of January 8, 2018. Last week, bulls took control of price action to retrace towards this trendlne and tested it. Bulls may be intent on taking price action further northward to at least retest the monthly pivot which is in confluence with a minor horizontal resistance around the 107.560 area. Thereafter, we are likely to see a southward turnaround of price action.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
AUDUSD Weekly Technical Outlook
After a northward move in January 2018, price action on the AUDUSD turned southward in February. A period of consolidation has since set in. On the weekly time frame, last week a relatively strong bearish candlestick was formed that spanned the consolidation channel. However, the candlestick failed to significantly breach the consolidation channel southward. We may have to wait for price action in the early part of this week to see if bears could effectively follow up with a southward continuation. The immediate support is around the 0.76500 area.
The order flow context on the H4 time frame is in favour of bears. The technical structure is also synced in favour of a southward continuation. A likely initial target of bears is the 0.76500 area. Should bears meet with success in reaching this target, we may see their attention turned to the minor support around the 0.75750 area. However, we may see a pullback by the bulls before the 0.75750 area is reached.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
USDCAD Weekly Technical Outlook
On the weekly time frame, price action on USDCAD is respecting a support trendline (chocolate) from the low of September 2012. Last week, a relatively big bullish candlestick pulled away from an area of consolidation and inched towards the horizontal resistance around the 1.31730 area. Technically price action is favoured for further northward move but the resistance around 1.31730 has to be cleared by bulls before a northward momentum can be sustained. There is also a minor resistance trendline (magenta) which is in confluence. Should bulls break the resistance, they may be attracted by the next resistance zone around the 1.34390 area; which has a confluence in an ascending trendline (red) acting as resistance.
On the H4 time frame, price action is bearing northward with strong momentum and respecting a support trendline (black). But it is nearing a resistance zone around the 1.31730 area and may reach this zone before a southward pullback to around the 1.30190 area. Thereafter, we may see further northward move. The technical structure is in favour of bulls. However, should bears manage to turn around price action and breach the trendline (black) southward, flipping it to resistance, we may see them target the minor horizontal support around the 1.28730 area before seeking a bigger target around 1.27630.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
