Event News Analysis - Consulting?

Trading Discussion News and Economy
1

Hi,

Regarding understanding of Event News to be able to analyze three major factors:

  1. to which currency or currency pair does content of news related to
  2. whether or not the event will have effect on chart (trade movement)
  3. whether the event, that happened, is good or bad for currency

I would like to know where could I sign up for some consulting (lectures) service that would explain me how to analyze the content (description of event) of news to be able to get the info on above said three factors?

Those are the most important factors when it comes to working with Events. However I am facing a lot of problems understanding the event. Even for most basic ones.

Example (recently obtained from DailyFX):

“Sweden’s inflation miss has the Swedish Krona as the bottom performer in the G10, but traders may want to note that SK 5yr breakevens are near a seven-year high with CPIF beyond the Riksbank’s target”

factor 1: here i am lucky that either name of country (it could be name of individual person too) or name of currency already exist.

factor 2: don’t know. No idea how to figure out if this will have effect on chart(s) or not.

factor 3: again, this is my main problem and the reason why i am asking if someone could please point me to some teaching service to learn. I simply don’t have the understanding of what is good and what is bad for currency. Therefore I don’t understand whether the quoted text means good for Swedish currency or bad. This confusion is the main reason why i am wasting months on opened position, being in loss, just to turn to profit for minimum distance to cover negative Swap so i don’t loss any money but neither earn it.

I am being fully focused on chart analysis (patterns etc) and this is WRONG. I should not be. However even the most basic Events make me confusion what is good and what is bad for currency.

Could someone please let me know about some resources, teaching service where could I learn this?

Recently I had situation with USDMXN. I went in Short position. Institution in Mexico (not sure which) cancelled airport construction and this took giant effect on chart. I had no idea this means bad for currency. All i was looking at was very well created pattern showing downtrend (and additional downward bounces from resistance line) but then obvious giant uptrend happened.

Your info about consultant would be highly appreciated,

Thank you a million times in advance.

2

Wait a minute.

If news is important because it moves prices, then surely the movement of price would be a good indicator as to what the news meant?

1 Like
3

what do you mean? i am not asking for indicator but suggestion please which consulting service to consider.

4

Your best indicator is price itself.

OK, its educational to understand more about the world of foreign exchange and how the market works, I’m just not convinced it makes a trade or makes a better trade.

I’m not trying to be smart at your expense, but profits from trading aren’t a prize for him who knows most. This makes it not like almost every other professional occupation we can think of.

My advice would be put your strategy on the desk and work out if your strategy requires you to answer your 3 questions in order to make a profit. If it does, go ahead. If it doesn’t, then your learning about newsflow is just a hobby thing and set it aside for a quiet Sunday afternoon, don’t put much time into it.

5

I appreciate your reply, thank you, but this is not anyhow related to my primary post.

Been punished many times because i was working/analysing charts too much and didn’t care enough for Events. Those days, when having countless of sleepless nights due to shaking myself because of scare whether or not my balance, i worked so hard for, will be blown due to the current loss on trading account (it happened in the past, should not happen again), are proving me that NOT everything is on charts.

So i would like to learn to understand the Event News. Impossible that there would be any automated tool to tell me if something is good or bad for currency because there are trillions of possibilities what kind of content could news have (what kind of event). So I am trying to find some consultant who would be willing to explain what is good and what is bad for currency from the actual news event’s content. Also to explain how to know if event will move the trend or not. Trend movement, as a result of event, most likely cannot be accurately predicted (not the direction, neither quantity of points/pips but if the trend will be moved due to event or not) but i assume that answer on question ‘‘is this good or bad for currency?’’ CAN be 100% accurately predicted. I would like to learn how to find out what is good and what is bad.

6

Don’t forget…once you "find out what is good and what is bad"
you’ll need to determine if it is discounted in the current price and if it
is, to what degree.

7

yes i am aware of this but my background is not economy. So the logic that some traders have as very obvious (e.g. new road being constructed which will by far increase both import and export of products), is not that obvious for me. I am having hard time figuring out what could be useful within specific event. Example:

“UK commits to avoiding hard border, including any physical infrastructure or related checks and controls in Northern Ireland”

This news event is very recent one. I know it is related to GBP currency. But i am trying to find some consultant who could explain how to figure out if this is good or bad.

8

You answered your own question immediately after this statement.

Why pay someone when you can learn on your own. I think it’s a matter of reading/listening and keeping aware of current economic events globally. You mentioned DailyFx as a resource. Perfect. Start there. Read and follow their daily/weekly/whatever market commentary. Find and pick an economic calendar (babyipips has one here) and follow the events and markets before/during/after the events happen. And do this consistently for weeks/months/years. That should get you started on getting a better grasp of what moves price/currency pairs.

1 Like
9

You are suggesting me to follow dailyfx’s news? Seriously? No way! They have several hours delay. News needs to be seen BEFORE it gets available or even ‘‘produced’’ so before Event is even completed. Why? because if i traded event news immediately when it comes available then its already too late because trend already moves as consequence of event. Its important to enter position BEFORE the trend moves and not immediately when event news is available. But this is offtopic to my question.

I am asking completely different subject.

10

Yes, absolutely. Maybe you’re looking for a crystal ball. Nobody but @Pipstradamus has one of those. As you’ve stated, you don’t know what events affect price, or to what extent, so getting timely information on these events is irrelevant. Nobody will be able to tell with certainty that if X happens, EURUSD will move X pips. They’ll be able to tell you there’s a bullish/bearish, hawkish/dovish potential to such a thing affecting price this way, but like I said, you can get for free online. And once you’ve been there to experience the event, and been there to see what market participants due in anticipation of such an event, based on that event meeting consensus/expectation (or not), and the magnitude of difference between the forecast and actual data, or words spoken by a central bank figure during key times of the year, you’ll have that understanding for the future. As I said, even a Dailyfx reports on high impact economic events occurring in the future, information that can be used before, during and after the release of that data. Are they the only one? Of course not.

The only other thing I can add is that even when you have a complete grasp of economics and market reaction to certain events, that still doesn’t give you the complete picture. From my very short experience, you’ll also need to learn about market trader psychology and the impact of algos and big time traders. It’s hard to get at some of that info, but I’m assuming that’s why @tommor said focus on price, rather than on the events that could affect price.

1 Like
11

When I said ‘‘No Way!’’ and was referring to DailyFx, i did NOT mean that their event news wouldn’t be quality or accurate. Of course they are accurate but with my comment ‘‘No Way!’’ i was referring to the time only. They have large delay of posting the news and trend unfortunately already moves as a cause of the event. It moves before the event description is posted and this is the problem.

Not sure who the guy is that you mentioned. Looked at his profile.

I would have to agree with you when you said that timely info on events is irrelevant but the reason why i created my forum post is that someone will hopefully, forward me to either individual consultant of company, who will be able to explain how to ‘‘read’’ (analyze) the event description and how to get the main info that i need so much - what is good/bad for currency. I know, as you said, noone will be able to tell me what happens if X happen but he/she/they/you will be able to tell me, accurately, what is good and what bad. Based on this there is very general rule about currency pairs we all know, depending on whether the particular currency is the base currency (left-side in the symbol) or right-side.

I am NOT asking if bullish/bearish because this could reduce the accuracy of lecture I am hoping for. But for the following random example of event:

“UK Conservative Lawmaker Anne Marie Morris believes that the 1922 committee has the 48 letters calling for a no confidence vote in May but some letters are conditional $GBP”

i would like to learn to be able to analyze: is this good or bad for gbp? Seriously, i have no idea. This is the main problem i am having in trading and probably the main (or only) reason why trend does unexpected (by me) direction. Being aware if asking someone: ‘‘Will this event move the trend?’’, I may not get 100% accurate answer but i will get it if i ask in different way: ‘‘Is this good for gbp or bad?’’

Handing to me the answer would not help because next minute i would struggle with another event.

For around 70% to 75% of entries on Economic Calendar, the ForexFactory has one of the best feature ever in the world of trading. It can be seen if you click on the folder icon and check the line ‘‘Usual Effect’’. This is exactly what i am searching for. Unfortunately even ForexFactory economic calendar doesn’t have this info for all lines and even worse: 95% of events i would like to learn to analyze, are NOT a part of economic calendar.

Focusing on price won’t help. Retracement due to not being aware of particular event could happen at any time. All the patterns are blown if some major event occurs.

12

would anyone be so kind to please answer my question who to contact?

13

Been waiting for 11 days but no replies, matching my original post yet…

14

Some of you guys really get in your own way

You’re over analyzing it

it isn’t that hard

If you want to be an economist or analyst then forget trading

Just pay for credible live fx news source

watch listen and learn

if you want logic then just quit now before you lose more money

15

it has passed by far over one month, almost one month and a half since i opened this post and still no reply matching my question. In the past three DAYS i lost over $15000 when i was forced to close three positions in GIANT loss. I was working so hard, FOR YEARS, waking up at 4:30am, to earn some money to deposit. I don’t feel responsible for the loss and i think i got scammed by the broker who changed direction of a trend just to make me loss. I have no way to look into the future to know where the price will be, although I am still saying that i have good (but very basic) knowledge of news trading: two opposite Stop pending orders. News events goes, as a consequence of event, into one direction, executing one pending position and custom tool automatically cancels opposite one.

But i really need to know how to figure out whether the exact event will move the trend? I am being extremely worried that some other cause/consequence and not exact event being analyzed, will move the trend then when event will, it will do it to opposite direction making me loss that i am not responsible for.

While i am struggling to find some free of charge consulting service (i spent all my money for losses so cannot pay anything), i am asking myself how is possible that broker expects me to literally look into the the future to know where the price will be in few hours or few days. I am not a mind reader, neither future reader.

My original question, in bold fonts, remains. Thank you a million times to anyone who could please assist before i die due to no income and inability to pay anything to survive.

16

I think you have made a strong effort to follow your original strategy and trading style. However, you are unable to limit your losses sufficiently. You haven’t said why you entered the 3 trades mentioned or why you exited them where you did. But it would not be unusual for a trader even using a profitable well proven strategy to have 3 consecutive losers. A good strategy without good risk management will fail.

My advice would be stop hunting for better information about news and take a really long hard look at how you manage risk.

17

What you are seeking is not so easy to describe, the best description was by M Douglas as ‘trading in the zone’.

Check my recent posts - often I’m describing what is likely to happen up ahead on cable, especially for the week ahead.

But it’s not an exact science like TA is supposed to be, it’s a sense of how the market feels about current affairs relating to a particular country.

Always an example - last week at close I mentioned a level on cable (1.2680) - I suggested that perhaps it’s better to sell around this level due to a lack of GBP buyers (mainly because of Brexit and how price behaved at this level)

So being in the ‘zone’ you think about GBP - has anything changed on the Brexit news? - no, so instead of buying rumours sell this fact.

Draw a line this past week on 2680 - see how often the rumour suggested a buy, see then that a sell right at this level was a winner more often.

18

One other thing, get to know your own country’s currency and economy, learn how the market reacts to news.

I know zilch about MXN, I remember possibly a new President and maybe he made comments that the market liked and MXN was bought - if this is so then that is buying the rumour, it has no substance, no numbers, it’s like the story of the naked emperor.

As soon as something real happens - like the road thing, that’s the little boy shouting that the emperor has no clothes, sell the fact.

I could be wrong about MXN but the ‘zone’ element is correct - it takes a while but get into that zone.

19

tommor two of three closed trades in giant loss (wasted over one year of working in my almost zero paid job on employer) where opened because there was clear either double top (proving downtrend) or double bottom (proving uptrend) pattern already formed. When said pattern is formed, the trend must go to mentioned direction. Since it didn’t, i assume that i got scammed by the broker who ‘‘sent’’ the trend to another way to make me loss my close to impossible to earn money. I work like 12 hours per day and my monthly salary is believe it or not around $400 (four hundred). In three days on three positions i lost over $15000 (fifteen thousands so you wouldn’t think one zero is accidentally typed). The third position was opened because the news event indicated so AND because on the same day, there had been no previous news for same currency pair (or single currency) announcing opposite direction.

peterma: I should care more about economic news events (definitely not just politics) and not that much about technical chart analysis (price action). Consequences of events can act against each and every knowledge facts i got from my learning activities. I know that my knowledge is good when it comes to chart analysis, e.g. patterns, horizontal support and resistance lines, etc but I know close to nothing about news events and how to trade them. The most helpful thing here is being provided on ForexFactory economic calendar where on few entries/events (why ‘‘few’’? because its far from the fact that feature would be available on all entries) is specification called ‘‘Usual Effect’’. To me this exact specification is like lottery winning ticket. Why? Because it clearly said what is good and what is bad for currency. Unfortunately, as said, not for all events. Not even for all high impact events. Even worse: for other news events outside of economic calendar (i am talking in general and NOT referring to ForexFactory anymore), such feature is impossible to be found anywhere. But the good thing is that I found good but very basic solution how to solve the problem when i don’t know whether uptrend or downtrend will result as a consequence of event. The solution is the one i already said: two pending Stop orders. One buy and one sell. One gets executed by consequence of exact news event, opposite gets automatically cancelled by custom tool. With this idea my inability to figure out the meaning of event can be at least partially but surely accurately solved. However the sad thing is that i cannot know whether the exact event (instead of some other factor) would cause trend movement so one pending stop order can be executed. I was thinking a lot and researching a lot on that since i made this post on 14th Nov on that Babypips forum. Recently i discovered the following approach and the time will show if its good or not:

Although I need to admit that I cannot afford cheapest monthly subscription of Thompson Reuter’s EIKON terminal but seeing in the free trial, there are still quality reports from news events and most important: quickly posted. Approach on figuring out the main problem: whether the event will cause trend movement could be extremely basic with the following self-created rule: Everything reported on the news feed in Eikon moves the trend (assumption1) but the following two conditions must happen:

  1. I must be able to manually confirm that on H1 chart (assumption2). Why H1? Because i think its the most appropriate one to judge if the trend is really moving.
  2. Neither title of the event nor its content (assumption3) include either of the following keywords or keywords similar to the following ones (so those must NOT occur in title or content):

flat
"refusing to"
indecision
"hasn’t moved"
“no progress”
“horizontally moving”

or anything like that showing in the title of news or in its content that there is no clear upward or downward trend.

So using all three assumptions, I believe this could be fair solution for my main problem: how to know whether or not particular news post (particular event) will have the consequence of trend moving on chart.

There is another problem which can occur: protecting myself from the fact that something else (some other factor) would in reality move the trend (executing one of my pending orders) and when the exact news post (exact event) being analyzed would really start to have the consequence on chart, it would move to the other direction. I am worried A LOT about this, very very very worried and would ask for some help please on this. The best thing i was thinking about is: looking for keyword of currency or currency pair (obviously the one i am considering to open two opposite pending stop positions for) in the Eikon’s news feed and check all the daily news* to make sure that no news are there that could (but how would i be able to know this if i cannot evaluate it due to missing knowledge on that?) show that currency or currency pair is going to the opposite direction. However even additional problem is the following: I described what could be solution for inability to know the direction as a consequence or a trend but how would i know then which pending positions will be most likely to be executed so i could see which opposite direction daily news* should NOT occur? I don’t know how to protect myself from the fact that some other element, instead of exact analyzed event, would execute the pending position.

20

Thanks YourFriend0. I’m sorry I can’t help you as I believe you are a space cadet.

Your trade with exceptionally high risk as you put $15000 at risk over 3 trades in 3 days.

You think a double top or a double bottom is reliable for trading.

You conclude that when the market didn’t go your way, it was because your broker moved the market against you.

If there is anything I could say to help, it would be “Stop trading”.

Good luck.