Today they have gone into the tunnel - the significance of that is it means Barnier & Co believe there is something to negotiate about, yesterday morning there was nothing.
A spokeswoman for the European commission has said the Barnier-Barclay meeting was constructive.
EU spokeswoman Mina Andreeva 2 hrs ago -
What I can say from our side is that Michel Barnier had a constructive meeting this morning with Steve Barclay,”*
“We are working towards a deal … If there is a will, there is a way.”
Well we have 3 weeks yet and way over a week before the Surrender Act even kicks in.(Even assuming it is valid) Way too early for a new treaty to be announced.
Well - as you say we’ll see - but it depends on what he has GIVEN AWAY - the “Tea-shack” looked very smug last night. Almost as though he was “One step closer to a united Ireland” !
I do hope he has not allowed one part of the “United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland” to be annexed by Merkel ! Just for the "Unity of the Conservative Party! "
Anyhow we’ll see how the lads and lasses of Lancashire and the rest of the Country feel about it - Come the Election !
Hmmm… you have to put yourself into their lives - how important is NI - most of them don’t even know we are UK, they consider us Irish - not a judgement, just the way it is.
Yup ! I do know several people who are saying "Ahh just cut the rope and let 'em all drift off into the Atlantic "!
You may be small, but you do make an awful lot of noise and demand a LOT of attention !
I play poker online and find “Irish” and “Canadians” hardest to play against as a rule - VARADKAR seems to have played a blinder here - but "We’ll see.
My statement was perhaps less clear than it could have been - I meant that the Country would evaluate the Treaty as a whole and if a little tweak on the “Backstop” is all he has achieved against May’s Surrender treaty, in his deperate bid to save the Conservative Party from oblivion, The Country will judge him harshly - As long as he has got us out of the CU and Single Market without being in the ECJ Jurisdiction and taken back control of our coastal fishing (All of which May failed to do) - then many of us can live with that. Personally, I’ll be looking at the NI part too - but you’re right a good many won’t.
Aye, i know this is some guess work, and I know they are talking thru the weekend, but back awhile i posted how the PM is thinking 5 years but he needs something concrete to bring to the electorate - ‘no deal’ is a bigger gamble than a deal and out - the second way could get the leavers and the remainers who would accept the least worst option - the lesser of 2 evils so to speak.
The only thing in the way of a deal as you outline is the Irish border - nothing else.
The only reason that this has not been done and dusted is the maths in Westminister, and you are right about the noise.
The jist of what they are crunching is 2 fold, first is the notion of ‘consent’ - this one is easiest to resolve - no one section in NI to have a veto, the mechanism is either via Stormont or Referendum - not yet decided.
The second is customs - I’ve outlined how it works at present, they are figuring how to get around the maths and noise in Westminster on this one.
The leader of the DUP is Arlene Foster - the power in that party rests with this guy - and he is already reminding the PM of arithmetic - I do hope that Eton is smarter
I just regret that we are now in such a corner. Having voted Remain I am now forced to concede that Brexit must be enacted at whatever cost. The choice between no deal, May’s deal, Johnson’s new deal or another deal is all now irrelevant in the face of larger questions - the failure of democratic governance of the UK and the surrender of government to Marxists.
If we leave the EU we will make the best of it, though our economy will suffer during the immediate future and the union might beak up. If we don’t leave the EU quickly, the rule of democracy in the UK is finished and the UK will still suffer economically as a result of being subordinated to the will of other countries’ politicians.
I think that mindset is extremely important and something we should all remember. I voted leave and had I woken the next morning to a “Remain” decision, would have been a little sad, shrugged and got on with life. - So would the vast majority of the 17.4 million.
In just the same way the vast majority of the 16 million “Reman voters” would have been a little sad and just have got on with life.
I just been listening to a discussion between Rod Liddle and Brendan O’Neil where this was a part of the discussion. Liddle said that the demographic of the Remain and the Leave voters was very similatr except for approx 25% of “Remainers” who genuinely said that they dd not know anyone who voted “Leave” - This he said was true and that in BBC, Civil Service, Academia, Teaching etc that was literally true - 90% + voted Remain and literally did not know ANY “Leavers” whatsoever - Hence to them something must be defective with the vote and from that came the internal rationalisation of the possibility to deny the democratic majority vote. Thus the “classification” of Leavers as THick, old, white, male racists who simly did not understand the issues.
On the contrary, a good many of us on the “Leave” side genuinely believe that some of the “Remainers” did not properly understand,what that entails on an ongoing basis or possibly just did not care!
However I digress. It seems to me that
Boris simply wants to hold the Conservative Party together. (Oh and “Beat Niget Farage” by taking away his whole USP). Now any delay beyond 31/10/19 would we believe be diastrous for the Conservative electability at the next General Election, Leaving on that date - almost irrespective of the nature of teh leave, as @tommor suggests. Personally I think the closer to May’s treaty, the smaller the majority of his Election Win - possibly even a Hung Parliament or the potential for a Corbyn Govt if the deal is really as bad as May’s ! - Nigel WIll punish him for a BAD DEAL !
The EU - Have much dissent internally and many other countries are speaking for example of “Frexit”," Italexit", “Irexit”, even “Gerexit” is a possibility ! So clearly they have to make the exit (if any) of the UK as difficult and painful as humanly possible, to discourage others from “trying it on” - A second referendum is their preferred option and one they have used several times previously against other countries !
The EU is frightened that a Clean Break Brexit will enable the UK to become a “Singapore” just off their shores and to become a highly successful trading Nation and an example to others as to what they could do if they left, as well as leaving a huge hole in the EU Budget, all of which is highly undesireable from their point of view - understandably so !
The desperation of the EU to keep us in has led to them negotiating behing=d teh Governments back with the Labour Party, Bercow et al. This is entirely counter to EU own rules and several Countries will be unimpressed - This alone could just prompt one of tehm to vote against any extension !
Last night “Our Moggy” dropped the hint on Radio 4 that the UK Govt could use the argument that “EU Law is stronger than UK Law” - which is cast in stone to say that "Article 50 is stronger than the “Benn Surrender Act” (Which some have dubbed the “Benn - Dover Act” ) and thus 31st October is cast in stone by EU Law - and argument several commentators ave been using for some weeks now. This may be true or it may be an enhancement of the “Bluff” aspect of negotiation. Nobody can say which for certain at this stage.
There are other possibilities I have heard of but will keep to myself at this stage.
Piers Morgan has forecast recently that “If no credible Brexit” occurs on 31/10/19, there will be such a Fury from the Brexiteers !" - I believe it was he who used the “Poll tax demos” as a comparison.
THere seems to be a consensus among those who are disillusioned by the current state of affairs that what this Brexit vote has actually revealed, is the utter contempt with which the “Establishment” view the rest of us - the “Electorate” That, as identified above by @tommor, is now probably a bigger issue than even Brexit itself and as Nigel Farage keeps saying - “The Genie is out of the bottle” - As to just what effect THAT will have in due course, on our democracy, one can only speculate.
Here is a quite short (14 minute) interview today of David Owen by Julia Hartley Brewer on Talk Radio.- sensible chat - which brings up the possibility of an exit through EEA - which nobody else has mentioned.
Thanks for posting that interview, Falstaff. David Owen’s summary of the current Brexit situation is one of the most understandable explanations I have heard recently.
Over here, on this side of the pond, we don’t get the Brexit detail — let alone the nuance — that’s so widely available to you folks in the U.K. Consequently, we Yanks tend to have a rather simplistic understanding of Brexit — and what the U.K. can, and should, do to wrap it up and get it done. So, from time to time, we need a simple, straightforward explanation to keep us in the loop.
Anyway, David Owen’s comments were enlightening.
On the other hand, that female interviewer was another matter, altogether. Do you think it’s possible that she could talk even faster? I caught about half of her words — and, maybe that was more than enough — but, I marvel that David Owen could understand her questions.
Clearly, the English ear is tuned to a different frequency from mine. I’ve always been amused by the odd way you Brits speak the English language
Quick update for GBP buyers - pound on the rise this morning on the back of comments that the UK has tabled new proposals ‘to break the deadlock’ specifically on Customs on the Irish border - apparently these coming from the UK PM.
Word of caution - Johnson had 1.5 hr meeting with Arlene Foster/Nigel Dodds last night.
If this new proposal is a result of that meeting then I’d be cautious on buying right now, if on the other hand the meeting was to update those 2 then I’d be guess it’s a good buy.
On the bigger charts - there’s an awful lot of value left in the GBP against the EURo - IF it can break through those two resistance levels (Shows here as EUR SUPPORT ! ) And with Eurozone teetering on recession, Merkel having promised to leave and the huge “investments” threatened by way of the formation of the flagship “European Army” - who knows ?
IF Boris gives us the present of being able to do our own trade deals, there could be a huge flood of investment in the uk. All depends on the “Devil in the detail” of what he has been lumbered with by way of a deal !
[Edit - Just a thought - It will be a huge Plus for VARADKAR, if he can call on his nice shiny new - European Army to come over and beat us up - next time the UK steps out of line ! ]
Agree re the possible move on e/g - it would be good to have moves back to being dictated by normal economical news instead of who said what - megaphone market.
The army thing, coming over and beating up - has been known to happen over here a few years back - hopefully never to be repeated.
Little update - Arlene Foster just refused to confirm that she would not accept checks at NI posts - signs of movement perhaps.
Edit: it was a dbl negative meaning that she just might accept the checks
Lord Owen is likely off the mark in suggesting pressure from Poland, the pressure was applied this evening by France - Macron wants the talks settled by midnight tonight - he wants no extension.
DUP will get the print-out this evening and will have to say yes or no.
No referendum for NI.
Border of sorts at NI ports.
DUP agreement could be critical to get the Tory ‘Spartans’ onside and thus have a chance for positive vote this Sat in Westminster.
(just summed up over 3 years and millions of words of talks between over 100 different people
Yes I think we can probably say that the Irish element of May’s “Pig” of a treaty is likely resolved now. if not then we shall no doubt be informed in due course.
My concern and I think that of most unindoctrinated comentators is to hear what other aspects Boris has managed to amend - specifically whether we shall now be enabled to stop charging EU tariffs on goods imported from the rest of the world and sending the money to Briussels/Strazboug. How the relationsip with the ECJ is altered and whether we now have control of our own fishing areas, to name but a few of the most awful aspects.
Or whether as many suggest, this is just a case of “Putting lipstick on the Pig” - in a desperate attempt to hold the Conservative Party together as a credible Party ?
And if so whether we “Old, thick, Northern, racists who did not understand what we were voting for” are prepared to give up our demands for BREXIT - or whether we shall form ranks around Nigel Farage and reject it (And THEM) at the General Election.
PM is adopting a pragmatic approach to a deal - out of EU but still able to trade on favourable grounds - he needs the DUP in Westminster - the Norther Irish element is effectively a thorny side show holding the whole thing up.
Anyways - latest update - the deadline came and went last night - they have now moved the deadline to 09.00 gmt.
One item needing ironing is the French objection to one of the future trade set-ups (that’s what I mean about pragmatic approach by BJ)
Why is the UK PM recently expending so much energy on a deal, what has changed in recent times, only a few weeks back 1,5 billion spent on making arrangements for no deal?
It’s not Brexit party since no deal is seen to minimize it’s reason to be.
Edit: If trading GBP the chances are on the buy side, if the news is positive less chance of a whipsaw like with NFP release - if negative same thing - maybe a straddle?
Well it seems that Robt Peston was on the ball with his tweet yesterday morning.
The good news is that a deal has been completed - it’s complex to say the least, but there is no sign of intention by UK to water down it’s standards - (the level playing field hurdle).
(I mentioned back about the old ‘British Standard Kite mark’ - it was a standard that exceeded many EEC standards back in the day so good that it will be back).
The bad news is that the DUP have yet again this morning said - well something they are known for saying over here - back in 1998:
Peston also tweeted yesterday morning…
Sort of amazing that the UK’s Brexit fate is in the hands of 10 DUP MPs and their leader (not an MP)
That’s the state of play this morning - possible EU will forge on with the text today.
) and thus 31st October is cast in stone by EU Law - and argument several commentators ave been using for some weeks now. This may be true or it may be an enhancement of the “Bluff” aspect of negotiation. Nobody can say which for certain at this stage.
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