That is true, and lets hope that Boris’s new Bribe to them is worth the money ! One also has to wonder what the situation would be like if those who simply refuse to attend Parliament had in fact joined in the democratic process ? - but whatever that situation, it is also relying on an unknown number of Labour MPs who have to consider their own positions - to wit; they have consistently voted and campaigned against any form of Brexit - yet their constituents are know to be absolutely comitted to Brexit. Whether these people will consider their own continuation as MPs to be stronger than their personal “principles” and switch to a vote FOR the pig with the lipstick ?
Any Uk Politician who ignores the Brexit Party influence on the dynamics of their own constituency, is either foolish or of such an age that they will not be standing again at the next Election. Boris seemingly has garnered teh support of teh country as shown by his 15 point advantage in teh polling at the moment. Some of that he is bound to lose as the detail of the pig comes to light. How much ? Remains to be seen.
And whether he can convince the Electorate that changes in the “Political statement” can be taken as solid agreements, when we are all well aware that it is not in any way binding.
There are a good many who will vote “Brexit Party” at the Election in any case - due to that Party’s comitment to “Change Politics ofr Good” and their Anger at the contempt with which “the Swamp dwellers” have shown themselves to hold for us ! - even if presented with a fudge of a “Treaty amendment” - Irrespective of the obvious campaigning point from Tories that " Vote Brexit - Get Corbyn"
A good many will be prepared to take that line, if for no other reason than to punish “them” for that line - After all - IF the Establishment has so llttle respect for the Country and the will of the People as they are showing and continuing to show - Then why should we the People show any more respect than those we elect (AND PAY A LOT OF MONEY TO !) on clear “Manifestos” which they have no intention of sticking to ?
In my mind, whatever happens, I think that the Electorate has a will to show their displeasure - Just as those who pulled that “Thermageddonist” off the roof of the train and set about him in London today are beginning to show !
It’s funny how DUP is such a minority when you’re talking about UK but are usually the ones standing in the way of progression. My thing is ok if you’ve turned down every potential solution why don’t you come up with a solution to break the deadlock? They want to be treated equally but due to the GFA the NI will always be treated differently.
Yougov now charts public voting intentions as of 15/10 as -
Conservative 37%
Labour 22
LibDem 18
Brexit 11
Green 5
Other 5
UKIP 1
Believe these numbers as you wish. Remember also polls like this are based on head count: political parties with smaller percentages of voters get disproportionately fewer seats in Parliament when it comes to the election, parties with higher percentages get disproportionately more.
The Cutoff point for any seats is generally reckonned to be 14 %
The Tories are peak popularity as at that poll and seem to be taking votes now from both Labour and Lib-Dems over the ast couple of weeks. Brexit holding - but this split is likely to change after Saturday and all that entails.
Very volatile atm. BUT the Brexit vote seems to be pretty hardcore and unlikely to decline much further - unless Nigel Tells 'em to vote a different way
If the Commons didn’t approve my deal on Saturday if I was Boris Johnson, I would do whatever it took to force an election. Regardless of any EU extension BS.
I agree @tommor - trouble is “they” won’t let him !
That dumb Cameron Clegg act says 2/3 of MPs HAVE to vote for an election. HE has lost 10 /10 of votes since he has no majority. Labour and Lib/Dems are terrified of letting US speak! [Whoever heard of “Opposition” voting AGAINST an Election - before ?]
He could as far as we can tell call a vote of “No Confidence” in himself but
a) “they” would amost certainly vote “Confidence” - just to keep him locked in
b) “They” would most likely put BERCOW as “Caretaker PM” and he could (and would?) entirely stuff “Brexit” during that short period (of between 2 weeks and 2 years)
Is that “Fixed term Parliament Act” which is the major part of this whole debacle !
There are two objectives in politics - get power, and avoid blame.
If you don’t have the power, as in this case, but you are able to avoid the blame, then the power will come back in time. I’d rather not be in No.10 if being there made me target for all the blame.
Aye, a lot of their voters are asking the very same question - good chance they will pay the penalty at the upcoming Westminster election.
I suspect that the DUP chose to say No for strategic reasons -they have been coming under pressure from both sides of their electorate in recent times.
The Loyalists are unimpressed at any dilution of the red lines re customs differences NI/GB, open talk of ‘taking direct action’ etc, non Loyalist but hardline supporters the Unionist Veto was important, that was their red line.
Then the farming/business/money wing - they have been vociferous lately.
It seemed that the DUP were in a lose lose situation - best to say NO and then no blame if this new deal gets thru.
What do i think of this new deal? - well it’s complex on a speed read but better than ‘no deal’ and a hard border. I’m going to wait until Sunday before reading it in detail since I’ve spent way too much time reading the last one.
Btw, in the past half hour on TV there has been 2 ads telling us to get ready for the changes come Oct 31st - waste of money or what.
There is not supposed to be one - Nigel is not best pleased because Juncker said so.
_So an unelected, retiring bureaucrat says: No extension, take this new treaty or just leave. _
_He is overriding the Benn Act. The EU shows itself to be a thuggocracy - power without accountability. _
Appalling people.
First thing that jumped to mind when I saw that tweet - how come he didnt call it the surrender act, and then I realized that Nigel was actually letting off steam because Juncker said to just leave.
No, I meant a Johnson extension, not a Benn Act enforced extension. Johnson could apply for an extension from the EU if Parliament blocked the deal and he wished to e.g. call an election (and was able to). He would probably get it from the EU even at this late stage.
Hmmm… the thing is how would he avoid the ditch, imagine the journalists’ questions - are you going out to find a ditch Prime Minister?
Then again he is fond of Churchill who said “In the course of my life, I have often had to eat my words, and I must confess that I have always found it a wholesome diet.”
Yep, the more i think about it, the more I suspect he’ll do it ditch or no ditch.
Yet another TV ad just after being shown - wish they’d give me just a tiny portion of their TV budget.
WE WOULD STILL BE PREVENTED FOREVER FROM RESCUING SCUNTHORPE STEEL WORKS
We have a massive shoal of Bluefin Tuna off Cornwall and our Cornish Fishermen are not allowed to catch ANY of them - Not even with rod and line. France and Spain are each allowed to catch 25000 - 35000 tonnes of OUR Fish !
We are comitted to the same taxation levels ! Not allowed to make our own Foreign Policy - No Trade deals with anyone until The EU say we can.
etc etc etc… There will be no difference on Nov 1 from Oct 31 !
I couldn’t wait until Sunday so I did the deed and dowloaded the yet to be approved agreement.
Above is wrong, foreign policy also wrong, the CFP and CAP needs more reading (Common Fisheries and Common Agriculture) so no comment as yet.
UK is NOT a member of the EU from Nov 1st, - yes there is a implementation/transitional period of 13 months.
“The Parties should uphold the common high standards applicable in the Union and the United Kingdom at the end of the transition period in the areas of state aid, competition, social and employment standards, environment, climate change and relevant tax matters.”
That’s the reference to state aid and tax - but that entire clause has been moved …guess where they moved it to …the accompanying Political Declaration, which is not legally binding.
So who will decide how closely the UK conforms to this declaration?
Nice one BoJo.
Edit; btw that’s Labour’s reason for opposing - the social and employment standards portion also not binding
The 'EU Army thing is one of these - the May deal committed the UK to “enable” policies surrounding defence - the Johnson deal has changed that to “consider” such policies.
Clearly not signing the UK up to anything as described by a tweet.
The Withdrawal Agreement is the short - term or immediate considerations.
The Political Declaration is the statement of agreed aims to be adhered to when “working towards” a PERMANENT “Free trade TREATY” - and whilst not couched in terms sufficiently legally watertight to be “Binding”, It IS an agreement in broad terms of the “Heads of agreement” of future negotiations.
So in line with Merkel’s recent statement of herfears that "the uk could potentially become a competitor alongside Chiina and USA " - the incorporation of the “Regulatoory Alignment” at Clause 77 which among other things specifically includes “state aid” (eg SCUNTHORPE STEELWORKS and “Taxation” - ARE ABSOLUTELY TRUE ! - Why on Earth would the EU allow detrimental (to them) changes to items “Agreed in principle” when they are getting paid £1 billion a month for prolonged negotiations ?
“Fishing waters” - you will find at Clause 77 !
Article 129 Paragraph 6 of the agreement specifically refers to “Foreign Policy - not to conflict with EU !”
Clause 131 agrees to continue to have ECJ to adjudicate on “Dispiutes”
Now it may be the Irish way to say things are “Not true” when they are as yet only agreed in principle - and as yet not legally formalised - but to me “Agreed in principle” is a good enough pointer to say that these things ARE INDEED - “TRUE”
Oh and the “13 month implementatin period” already anticipates significant further extensions - and throughout this “extended period” financial penalties of around 1 billion per month would be payable to EU.- during which time there would be no trade deals with other countries if my understanding is correct.
{EDIT - with reference to my comments above - We DO have a principle under the British Constitution that “No Government can bind it’s successor” (Although how that sits with “International Treaties” - seems a bit dubious) - However accepting That priinciple - I see no real reason why a Party (Brexit Party for example) could not campaign at an Election on the principle that the Withdrawal agrement is a monstrous construct and that the “Political Declaration should be dumped in it’s entirety”.
That then would put me entirely in line with @peterma s statement that “it’s not legally binding” ! I don’t think a new Conservative Govt would be able in good faith to pull the same stunt and I don’t think any other party would be interested in anything other than a more onerous (on Uk) agreement.
That’s about as far as I want to go atm on that “shady” line of argument !
Here is a video of this lad catching 2x 300lb plus Bluefin Tuna (Off Cornwall last month) - which amazingly he is only allowed to “catch” - by accident when shark fishing and is obliged to release them after unhooking ! Whilst the French and Spanish hoover them up ! in the last minute of the Video he expresses that "It’s absolutely criminal the we can’t target these properly "
YES Absolutely Criminal !!!- Who are these idiots we have as MPs ??? _ THEY’RE
OUR Bloody fish ! - Can you imagine the French putting up with garbage like this ?
