Following the white rabbit into the DEX rabbit hole - Farmers Only Exchange

I have been trying to learn about leveraged liquidity pairs for the past few weeks. For history, see Yearn, Olympus (OHM), Wonderland (TIME) and other forks of OHM. It took me a while to get my head around these exchanges until I was on my third whitepaper.

It dawned on me around Christmas or New Year about the creation of these phenomena, which bend our perception of the real world like the Matrix trilogy, and hence my reference to the white rabbit. The use of the word “treasury” was the key to me, and my realisation more than a decade ago that sovereign nations have been doing this since the creation of nations. They just print currency out of thin air and use a treasury function, along with interest rate policy, to manipulate (try to control) supply and demand to stabilize an economy. In the recent few years it has become apparent to most citizens of most countries that the record deficits of the last two years will not end well for fiat currencies.

So I wished to take a very small position (a pilot position) in a leveraged holding of a currency pair. And this week saw the launch of the FOX (Farmers Only Xchange).

It is run on the Harmony (ONE) ecosystem, which has become my favourite “network” - if that is the right word for an ecosystem that promotes dapps (Decentralized Applications) within its own currency (in this case the ONE).

This is the third investment I have taken in this ecosystem, the first two being DeFi Kingdoms with its own currency the Jewel, and Tranquillity City with its recently released token the LUMEN. Both these dapps are games in which NFTs can be used to generate an income. So they fit my definition of investible NFTs.

There is a very special reason I have chosen to dip my toes into leveraged currency pairs, and that is the future. I am not going to reveal what that special reason is because I haven’t yet made my own move in that area, and don’t want it to be necessarily more expensive when I have free funds to do so in about six weeks time.

So the experience was not an easy one. I started three days ago amidst an almost total shutdown of the ONE ecosystem. There were issues preceding the last few days of latency and many transactions needing to be repeated but that was thought to be due to the uptake of DFK - membership has grown from 25K to 70K in the time I have been playing the game. It turns out that there was another issue of spam congesting the system, due to the ridiculously small transaction fees that attracted me to the network in the first place. I have now made nearly 1,000 transactions on the Harmony network and have spent far below $10 in all on transaction fees.

I have lodged my pilot currency pair in the FOX-ONE vault at a daily interest rate of 0.81%, equating to an annual APY of 1,785%. This is money I am prepared to lose, but my gut feeling is that I will not suffer an overall loss at all, with a good chance of doubling funds in the next few months.

If there is any interest in this “rabbit hole”, I will try to answer questions on this thread. Meantime, I will be keeping a close eye on how this vault performs. It would not surprise me to see the TVL (total value locked) to grow very rapidly. I want Harmony to succeed with its two second blockchain cycle and its extremely low fees. Like many others of a similar ilk, the world is not going to wait till ETH sorts out its gas fee issue. None of them has a guarantee they will be first mover in the cost versus traffic stakes, but a two second block time is a good start.

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Has the APY made any moves in the last week? Harmony ONE is getting increased coverage in the media, bringing in at least more eyeballs.

APY is snipped below. It does not vary much. But the impermanent loss went south fast.

Interest since the proof of concept LP is 83.16/78.17 = 6.3% since 16Jan22 (9 days), but the USD equivalent of the FOX-ONE pair on 16Jan was about $234 and it is now $127 - a loss of 48%. It’s good it has started like this. I can take my time determining whether this or other LP offerings are worth the bother.

Well, the markets dumped, so literally everything is down. Discount shopping they say. Or is it, something that’s down 90% can still go down another 90%?

Update today.

Seems to have stopped bleeding on the price of FOX, but look at those others - 30%+ daily interest. I wonder how long that will last. No idea what a Quartz token is. Worth watching, if only to have a laugh next week.

Here is my MEMO screenshot which uh, looks like I need to do some reading again because:

Yes, I saw this cross-reference in an article today about the new Quartz token. FOX (Farmers Only) have release a new pair purporting to pay 27% per DAY! For what it’s worth, I intend to just leave the initial fund in the FOX-ONE pair and see how that does over more than a month. Don’t forget the entire market is in carnage right now, so the boot will be stuck in and the Fear and Greed index will be doing overtime. Best to wait and see the outcome instead of making panic decisions. That is why we split up our investments into little pieces, isn’t it? :wink:

If your 5 day rate remains real, that equates to about 32% a month (I think) so doubling your money inside of 3 months. If the price drops 50% you still break even. It is, after all, one of those outside bets, and we should all take one or two of these in our lifetime. My wife does it with lottery tickets. I do it with get rich slow schemes. :rofl:

LOL ok so I looked it up and it seems I need to wrap my current MEMO (changes coming soon, mergers etc which will render MEMO useless or something).

Anyway, as with all of my experiments, I put int $100 into this (aka bought $100 worth of AVAX). When I first started I had 0.014 MEMO, that was in December 4th. Today it’s now 0.037. But with everything insanely tanking right now, if I wrap what I have:

image

So I was like oh okay. How much is that worth in USD?

My $100 is now $15. HAHA. I love this! :laughing:

It’s great that I’ve been sick as ignorance is truly bliss lol.

I’m reminded of how crazy things can get in the DeFI world. So much drama. o__O Like, you can’t even keep up with new things happening and when you do find something to keep up with, there’s sooooo many things to keep up with within just that “tiny” segment!

Ouch, I am sorry to hear that. My $234 is now worth $116. Not quite as severe but may end up being so. And that is why it is a good discipline to do these things like projects. A proof of concept, then a pilot study, then a gradual ladder in to a position. If it stops at the PoC or the pilot, so much the better. Totally recoverable. Onwards and upwards.

Just sold another NFT today (unexpected margin on the good side) so I am not making any additional trades. They say it is bad to trade euphoria. I’ve looked at many a set up. Just haven’t pushed the button - it’s tomorrow in 3.5 hours so not long to wait LOL

Exactly.

I’m not sure if you were into crypto back in 2017 but I was and while i lost a lot of $50s in ICOs, I did do 15x in some so to me, the more you spread your bets, the more chances of winning LOL.

Congrats! How was the return on that?

After costs, 2.7X. Yippee.

“This time next year, Rodney, we will be millionaires”

Ugh lucky. This one still on Harmony?

MEMO and the whole Wonderland TIME project is going through an existential crisis at the moment. One of the founders has been identified as a purported scam artist involved in the $135-160m theft of Quadriga Exchange in Canada. Many traders were liquidated recently, with the blame being put on the cofounder and whales dumping and causing liquidation cascades. Many traders/holders who invested feel rugged, finding out that a cofounder, who had multisig access to a one-time $1 bn treasury has such a history in illegal behavior.

It’s been a soap opera to say the least. The other cofounder, Danielle Sestagalli, who only recently became aware of the back story of his other co-founder and didn’t tell the community for some weeks, is also involved in other projects, including Abracadabra Money, Popsicle Finance, ICE, SPELL, MIM and a new FTM focused project similar to OlympusDAO and the vested escrow concept, is feeling the wrath at the moment.

It’s not too pretty at the moment. Best to do some research about the future prospects of the project.

No this is the first type I have done on ETH. I complain about the ETH gas like everyone else, but I am not complaining about the 2.7X after costs. LOL

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Are you still bullish on TIME?

OMG THIS WAS ON OPENSEA???

Yes Wheelies. They are still in mint for 0.05ETH each. Great low cost way to get your feet wet in NFTs (well, that is my story anyway). And they appeal to my warped sense of humour which always helps

I’m so jealous. I’ve spent hours looking at galleries on OpenSea but always chickened out at the last minute.

It takes a lot of wins (and losses) to be able to JFDI, especially when it comes to real money. I have a deep history of trading (goods and services mainly), so I am used to the occasional disappointment and loss. It was new to me too, but looking at the quoted volume on OpenSea, it was a no brainer. I did stick my neck out with this one because it does not satisfy ALL of my NFT investment criteria. What swung it for me was my “check the founder’s credentials” criterion. I have been following one of the co-founders on Youtube for over a year and he reminds me of a “young me”. I also think it is worth supporting artists (of any type) and I was delighted to see that whilst the OpenSea fee was a reasonable 2.5% (compare that with selling on eBay - I just sold a gold watch on there and had to pay over 15% fees) the artist royalty fee was 10% and if I have interpreted it correctly, that royalty will also be payable for all future sales. Knowing quite a few poor artists, I see crypto and NFTs in particular to be a first, but not a last opportunity for originators to share in the rewards of their creations instead of olde worlde “agents” or “studios” to get rich off the back of creators. I have no problem with intermediaries - it is just that most of them in the past have been extremely greedy and had not looked after their creator/artists with a duty of care. The blockchain can take care of that duty of care without relying on a human being as a fair player.

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I believe TIME has transitioned to wMEMO. There’s a ton of money in the Treasury, and before all the recent drama, Daniele and co already used some funds to put toward gaming and NFT initiatives. It’s just hard to say what the last two days has done to his reputation.

https://link.medium.com/R8GWe4gEanb