Forex, Commodities, Crypto Market Analysis by Solid ECN

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USDJPY - strong dollar keeps the pair from falling

Since the beginning of the week, macroeconomic releases have not put pressure on the Japanese currency: the unemployment rate in July remained at June (2.6%), and the ratio of the number of vacancies and applicants improved to 1.29 from 1.27 a month earlier, although analysts did not expect changes. Among the negative aspects, it is worth highlighting another decrease in the index of leading indicators, which amounted to 100.9 points instead of 101.2 points earlier. Tomorrow, data on the volume of industrial production for July will be published: according to forecasts, the figure will fall by 0.5% after rising by 8.9% in June, which could become a serious factor in pressure on the yen.

The US dollar retreated from yesterday’s highs and trades around 108.7 in the USD Index. Investors continue to evaluate the speech of US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at the economic symposium in Jackson Hole. Still, this week will be filled with statements by the heads of regional federal reserve banks, who will share their views on the prospects for national monetary policy. The local dynamics of quotations can be seriously affected by today’s data on the number of open vacancies in the labor market from JOLTS, which will be published in the evening: analysts suggest that in July, the figure will decrease to 10.475M from 10.698M, which is likely to hurt the national currency.

The trading instrument moves within the global uptrend, forming a Head and shoulders pattern. Technical indicators keep a buy signal: indicator Alligator’s EMA oscillation range is directed upwards, and the histogram of the AO oscillator forms bars above the transition level.

Resistance levels: 139.3, 143 | Support levels: 136.7, 132.2

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NZDUSD - Trades within the global downtrend

The report of the Statistical Office of the country (Stats NZ) on job occupancy, published yesterday, reflects a stable situation in the national labor market: the number of workers in all sectors of the economy increased by 0.5% or 10.863K in July. The segment of technical services increased the most, adding 5.1%, followed by construction (4.8%), public administration (4.3%), retail (3.5%), and manufacturing (1.9%) sectors. The only area that showed negative dynamics was agriculture and the extraction of raw materials, where the number of workers decreased by 2.0% or 2.145K people.

The American currency consolidated just below 109 in the USD Index. Today, markets look forward to data on the number of open vacancies in the labor market from JOLTS. Analysts suggest that the value will decline to 10.475M from 10.698M a month earlier, which is an alarming signal, especially before tomorrow’s report on employment in the non-farm sector, where experts are counting on an upward trend. Today, traders’ attention will be focused on the Conference Board report on the index of consumer confidence, which, according to the forecast, may improve to 97.9 points from 95.7 points earlier.

The trading instrument is moving within the global downtrend, approaching the support line. Technical indicators maintain a sell signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are below the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram forms downward bars in the sell zone.

Resistance levels: 0.623, 0.645 | Support levels: 0.6097, 0.593

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CAC 40 - French stock market is actively declining

The stock index of France continued to decline this week after the financial authorities of the eurozone announced the continuation of aggressive monetary policy at the annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole. At the moment, CAC 40 quotes are correcting down, being at 6251. European Central Bank (ECB) Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel has warned that central banks must act decisively to fight inflation despite recession risks. In turn, the Governor of the Bank of France, François Villeroy de Galhau, said that he had no doubt that the European regulator would continue the policy of raising interest rates, bringing them to 1%-2% by the end of this year. The next meeting of the ECB will take place on September 8, and experts suggest that the value can be adjusted to 1.00% from 0.50%.

In the domestic bond market, the yield on the entire line of debt securities continues to rise, putting pressure on stock assets. The rate on popular 10-year government bonds is at 2.114%, up from 1.365% at the beginning of the month, and on long-term 20-year bonds it is 2.441%, up from 2.277%, which were demonstrated last week.

Quotes of the index reversed and began to show an active decline. At the same time, technical indicators have already given an updated signal for the start of sales: the fast Alligator indicator EMAs crossed the signal line from above, and the histogram of the AO oscillator moved to the sales area, forming descending bars.

Support levels: 6132, 5840 | Resistance levels: 6354, 6615

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The shares of Bank of America, the largest financial conglomerate in the US, are moving within the corrective trend of around 34.

On the daily chart, the price has left the global downward channel with dynamic boundaries at 27 – 33 and is trying to stay within the corrective trend that began after overcoming the initial 23.6% Fibonacci correction at 34.7. On the four-hour chart, it is seen that the upward impulse has high prospects for implementation. However, they are relevant only after the quotes reconsolidation above 34.70.

Technical indicators keep a buy signal: indicator Alligator’s EMA oscillation range is directed upwards, although it is narrowing, and the histogram of the AO oscillator forms downward bars in the buying zone.

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AUDUSD - Negative statistics from Australia put pressure on quotes

Australia’s housing market data for July was released yesterday, with building permits falling sharply by 17.2% against a forecast of 5.0%, while construction of the rest of the property fell by a significant 43.5%, which was the second contraction in a row, and this allows us to speak about the negative impact of the increase in interest rates by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), which began in May this year. The Q2 volume of completed construction works decreased by 3.8%, although analysts expected an increase of 0.9%, while the volume of issued building permits for the construction of private homes increased by 0.7% after falling by 1.8% a month earlier. Also to the construction sector, the negative dynamics continue in the lending sector: the rate of loans issued is actively declining, and in July, the overall increase corrected to 0.5% from 0.6% a month earlier, and for the private sector — the sector — to 0.7% from 0.9% on the back of increased cost of servicing loans due to a sharp increase in interest rates.

On the daily chart, the price is correcting, completing the formation of the Head and shoulders reversal pattern. Technical indicators have reversed and are holding a local sell signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator cross the signal line downwards, and the AO oscillator histogram forms downward bars in the sell zone.

Resistance levels: 0.6928, 0.7122 | Support levels: 0.6847, 0.6681

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Crude Oil - decline after reports of continued supplies from Iraq

After a significant increase, quotes returned to levels below 100 and, according to leading experts, the downward dynamics are due to reports from the Iraqi State Oil Company (SOMO), which indicate the intention to continue continuous export of fuel, despite ongoing mass protests, which, in turn, weakened the fears of investors about the shortage of raw materials. European countries are currently called the key direction of supplies, and, according to SOMO, if buyers express interest, the company is ready to increase the volume of transportation of “black gold” to the region from 20% to 40%, for which the delegation has already gone to Germany for negotiations.

An additional pressure factor on the quotes was the statistics on stocks from the American Petroleum Institute (API), according to which the index rose by 0.593M barrels after falling by 5.632M a week earlier.

As for the demand for oil contracts from investors, last week, there were global changes: according to the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the number of net speculative positions for the first time since the beginning of summer reached 246.2K, rising from 214.9K contracts a week earlier, which may be the primary sign of a change in the trend in the asset.

On the daily chart of the asset, the trading instrument has left the limits of the local downwards channel, having overcome the resistance line. Technical indicators reversed upwards: fast EMAs of the Alligator indicator crossed the signal line upwards, and the AO oscillator histogram forms upward bars in the buying zone.

Resistance levels: 102.53, 111.97 | Support levels: 96.48, 91.16

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Nasdaq 100 - the US stock market continues to decline

The US stock market continues to correct downwards against the backdrop of negative news background and the US Federal Reserve’s plans to continue aggressively raising interest rates. At the moment, Nasdaq 100 quotes are showing a downtrend, being at 12443.

In the corporate segment, another letter from the lawyers of Elon Musk to the management of Twitter came to the fore, providing a number of reasons why the CEO of Tesla has the right to refuse to purchase a social network. In turn, lawsuits against the leadership of some states, initiated by Tesla continue. According to the company’s lawyers, the legislative framework introduced there does not allow selling electric cars without using the services of dealers, which hinders the development of trade: the automaker filed a lawsuit against the Louisiana state authorities, accusing them of creating artificial restrictions.

Meanwhile, the upward correction continues on the domestic bond market. The popular 10-year Treasury yield is 3.1%, up from 2.58% in the month, and the conservative 20-year bonds have a yield of 3.49%, well above the 3.21% seen in early August.

Quotes of the index continue to decline, approaching the recently passed resistance line of the descending channel. Technical indicators quickly reacted and reversed: the fast Alligator indicator EMAs crossed the signal line from above, expanding the range of fluctuations, and the histogram of the AO oscillator moved to the sales area.

Support levels: 12181, 11181 | Resistance levels: 12894, 13675

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USDJPY - “bulls” are preparing to update the June high

Today, macroeconomic data that came out in Japan supported the quotes of the national currency. Industrial Production in July was 1.0%, exceeding the negative forecast of analysts at the level of -0.5%, while the volume of Retail Sales in annual terms for the same period was at the level of 2.4% against preliminary estimates of 1.9 %. Against this background, the USD/JPY pair fell to 138.30; however, the long-term trend remains upward.

Also today, Bank of Japan’s board member Junko Nakagawa made a speech, based on whose statements it can be concluded that the regulator is still committed to maintaining the financial stimulus program to combat the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic. According to the official, the regulator will be cautious in decisions on monetary policy, and its main task is not to interfere with the actively recovering economy.

Further dynamics of USDJPY will depend on macroeconomic statistics from the US coming this week. Market participants are waiting for the publication of data on Nonfarm Payrolls on Friday. Analysts suggest that the figure will add 300 thousand new jobs. If the actual value turns out to be close to the forecast or exceeds it, then the US dollar is waiting for further strengthening, and the USDJPY pair is likely to renew the June high around 139.2.

The long-term trend is upward. Yesterday, the instrument came as close as possible to the level of 139.2, in case of a breakout of which, the growth will continue with the targets of 141 and 142.5, and if it is held, a correction to the area of 136 – 135.3 will take place.

As part of the medium-term uptrend, the pair reached the target zone 2 (138.75–138.32). The “bulls” need to consolidate above this area, and then the next target of the upward movement will be the target zone 3 (143.11–142.67). The key trend support is shifting to the levels of 134.94–134.54. If it is tested as part of a correction, traders should consider new long positions in the asset.

Resistance levels: 139.2, 141, 142.55 | Support levels: 136, 135.3, 132.2

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The shares of Microsoft, a global giant in the development and sale of operating systems and software for computers, are trading in a corrective trend around 261.

On the daily chart, the price failed to consolidate within the uptrend and returned to the global downtrend with dynamic boundaries of 220 – 270, having broken the resistance line at 272. On the four-hour chart, it is clearly seen that the support line at 259.00 acts as a barrier to further decline, which is also the lower limit of the local rising channel, in which the price is held. The consolidation below it will open the way for quotes to the lows of the year around ​​241.

Technical indicators keep a sell signal: indicator Alligator’s EMA oscillation range expands downwards, and the histogram of the AO oscillator forms downwards bars in the sell zone.

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EURUSD - inflation in the EU has set another record

The European currency is resisting the growth of the dollar, trading around the 1.0014 mark after the publication of a block of macroeconomic data yesterday.

Thus, consumer prices in the EU in August added 0.5%, which led to an increase in the annual inflation rate to 9.1% from 8.9% (food and energy prices rose the most), while local inflation in countries bloc increased almost everywhere: in Italy, it reached 8.4% from 7.9% a month earlier, and in France, the figure fell to 5.8% instead of 6.1%. Rising consumer prices will require European Central Bank (ECB) officials to continue their “hawkish” policy, and already at the meeting on September 8, the interest rate could be raised immediately by 1.00%.

The American currency in yesterday’s trading again renewed the annual maximum around 109.100 in the USD Index after the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, John Williams, in his statement, clarified the “restrictive level of stability” of the interest rate announced by the head of the US Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell. That mark is in the 3.5% region, well above the current rate, Williams said, but experts are now evaluating the likelihood that the agency will want to reach that level in one step at its next meeting on September 21, putting significant pressure on the US economy, which and so is going through a recession.

The trading instrument is kept within the global downward channel, correcting towards the resistance line. Technical indicators maintain a stable sell signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are below the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram forms downward bars in the sell zone.

Resistance levels: 1.0095, 1.0321 | Support levels: 0.9940, 0.9753

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XAUUSD - demand for gold is falling again

Due to the strengthening of the USD Index to the high of the year at 109, the XAUUSD pair is correcting in a downtrend around 1705.

The reason for the positive dynamics of the US dollar was several factors, the key among which was the speech of the head of the US Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, at the symposium in Jackson Hole. The official gave the markets a clear signal that the regulator will continue to raise interest rates until inflation is brought under control, after which the rate will be kept at a “stable level” for some time to consolidate the effect of the measures already taken. According to him, the restoration of price stability will require a decisive use of central bank instruments, so experts suggest that at the September meeting, the US Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 75,0 basis points for the third time in a row. However, yesterday, the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, John Williams, noted that the optimal level of the indicator is 3.5%, which hints at a possible adjustment immediately by 1.00%. A sharp rise in value is always a negative sign for gold.

Serious changes continue in demand for the metal from investors. According to the latest report from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), last week, net speculative positions in the asset decreased to 125.8K from 141.2K contracts. If we pay attention to the activity of traders, then the sellers held the lead in cash-backed contracts, reducing them by 2,739K positions, while buyers liquidated only 99 contracts.

On the daily chart of the asset, the trading instrument stays within the global downwards channel with dynamic boundaries 1770.0–1630.0. Technical indicators strengthen the sell signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are kept well below the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram continues to fall in the sell zone.

Resistance levels: 1721, 1770 | Support levels: 1696, 1650

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DAX 30 - German stock market remains under pressure

Frankfurt’s leading index DAX 30 is correcting downward, trading at 12752. Quotes have changed their trend to a downtrend, and weak macroeconomic indicators and growth in the domestic bond market remain the key pressure factors. Experts’ forecasts regarding the German economy are pessimistic. The key segment of the economy, the labor market, has been decelerating for the third month in a row: Unemployment Rate increased from 5.4% to 5.5% in August, and the Unemployment Change increased from 2.469 million to 2.497 million, adding 28.0 thousand over the reporting period.

The domestic bond market continues to grow rapidly, putting key pressure on the stock market. The yield on German 10-year government bonds rose to 1.5410% from 0.7610% in the month, 20-year bonds yield rose to 1.622% from 0.959% at the beginning of the month, and the yield on global 30-year bonds rose to 1.627%, which is much higher than 1.001% a month earlier.

On the daily chart of the asset, the price is trading within a Triangle pattern, approaching the support line. Technical indicators reversed towards decline: the fast Alligator indicator EMAs crossed the signal line from above, and the histogram of the AO oscillator moved to the sales area, forming descending bars.

Support levels: 12528, 11703 | Resistance levels: 12973, 13933

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USDJPY - Growth is possible

On the daily chart, the third wave of the higher level 3 develops, within which the third wave of the lower level iii of 3 formed, and a downward correction ended as the fourth wave iv of 3. Now, the fifth wave v of 3 is developing, within which the first wave of the lower level (i) of v has formed.

If the assumption is correct, after the end of the local correction (ii) of v, the USD/JPY pair will grow to the area of 145 – 150. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 131.7.

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XAUUSD - The pair may grow.

On the daily chart, a downward correction ended as the fourth wave of the higher level (4), within which the wave C of (4) formed as a momentum and the fifth wave (5) started. Now, the first entry wave of the lower level i of 1 of (5) has formed, and the local correction has developed as the second wave ii of 1 of (5).

If the assumption is correct, the XAUUSD pair will grow within the wave iii of 1 to the area of 1857.25 – 1910.3. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1681.43.

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EURUSD - A fall is possible.

On the daily chart, the downward wave of the higher level C of (B) develops, within which the fifth wave v of (C) forms. Now, the fifth wave of the lower level v of C is developing, within which the wave (v) of v of C is forming.

If the assumption is correct, the EURUSD pair will fall to the area of 0.98 – 0.97. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.0082.

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GBPUSD - A fall is possible.

On the daily chart, the fifth wave of the higher level V develops, within which the wave (1) of V forms. Now, the fifth wave of the lower level 5 of (1) is developing, within which the wave iii of 5 is forming.

If the assumption is correct, the GBPUSD pair will fall to the area of 1.13 – 1.105. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.1887.

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Shares of Visa, America’s largest multinational payment services company, are correcting at 198.

On the daily chart, a global Triangle pattern with dynamically narrowing boundaries at 185 – 217 is developing, and at the moment, the price is heading towards the support line. On the four-hour chart, it is seen that the even down wave has a high potential for implementation since the only serious obstacle in the form of support around 200 has already been overcome by now, and quotes have headed towards the support line around 185.

Technical indicators confirm a sell signal: indicator Alligator’s EMA oscillation range is directed downwards, and the AO oscillator histogram forms downward bars.

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USDCAD - Candlestick Analysis

H4
On the 4-hour chart in the ascending trend channel below the level of 1.3207 there is a formation of a Hanging Man candlestick analysis pattern, signaling an impending price reversal, as well as two Shooting Star patterns, indicating weakening buyer activity. At the moment, above the level of 1.3089, a Three Black Crows figure has appeared, which similarly emphasizes the “bearish” sentiment for the instrument. The most likely is the decline of the asset to the zone of 1.2732–1.2454 after overcoming the lower boundary of the uptrend and the support level 1.3029. An alternative scenario is possible if the price consolidates above the resistance level of 1.3267 with the targets of 1.3425 – 1.3716.

D1
On the daily chart at the level of 1.3207 there is a Shooting Star pattern, which is a reversal pattern at the top, as well as the formation of a Hanging Man confirming pattern, which appears in the area of high prices and signals that the asset has reached a local top. In this case, a downward scenario from the support level of 1.3029 seems more likely, and consolidation of the price below it will allow the “bears” to head to the zone of 1.2732–1.2454.

Support levels: 1.3029, 1.2732, 1.2454 | Resistance levels: 1.3267, 1.3425, 1.3716

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XAUUSD - demand for physical gold declined sharply

According to the reports of the world’s leading mints, primarily the US, August was the weakest month of this year in terms of sales of the precious metal: the US Mint sold 46,000K ounces of gold in the form of the American Eagle coin, which is 28% lower than in July and 66% down from August 2021 and American Buffalo coin sales were 17,500K ounces, down from 39,500K ounces in July.

Another worrying factor for the asset is the outflow of investors from ETFs. Thus, over the past week, metal stocks at the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) trust decreased by 11 tons, demonstrating negative dynamics for the tenth consecutive week, while net capital outflow in August was recorded at 456.0M dollars. Data from trading floors also confirm these changes in investment demand: according to the latest report from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), last week, the number of net speculative positions in gold decreased to 117.7K from 125.8K contracts. If you pay attention to the dynamics of trading, it is “bulls” that close more deals, which can serve as short-term support for quotes: last week, swap dealers liquidated sell positions by 5,296K, and buyers increased by 1,755K contracts.

On the daily chart of the asset, the price is moving within a downward channel and, after reaching the low of the year, is preparing for a local reversal. Technical indicators maintain a sell signal, ignoring a possible local correction: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are kept well below the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram is decreasing in the sell zone.

Resistance levels: 1727, 1802 | Support levels: 1696, 1640

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The second largest cryptocurrency by capitalization, ETH, is trading within a correction to the recent significant decline, consolidating around 1644.

ETHUSD, H4

The four-hour chart of the asset shows that the downward movement is developing within the framework of a possible Step pattern, where the second and last step has almost completed their formation. According to the implementation theory, in this case, the current global trend will continue, and the key support for the price will be the initial Fibonacci 23.6% correction at 1517, the breakdown of which will open the way for quotes to the 1252 area.

ETHUSD, D1

On the daily chart, a corrective upward wave is forming, which has recently consolidated below the support line of the local Flag pattern around 1660. The key support at the initial correction of 23.6% Fibonacci around 1517 has not yet been broken, which allows traders to hope to hold their positions at the current values ​​for some time.

Technical indicators maintain a global sell signal, ignoring the local correction: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are below the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram is in the negative zone.

Resistance levels: 1900, 2200 | Support levels: 1517, 1252

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