USDCHF - Candlestick analysis
H4
On the four-hour chart, at the resistance level of 0.983, there is the formation of a reversal candlestick analysis pattern Dark-Cloud Cover, as well as a Shooting Star pattern, signaling a shift in forces towards sellers. In addition, it is worth noting the appearance of two Hanging Man patterns at once, which confirm the achievement of the top by the asset, and the Doji pattern above the level of 0.977, which warns of uncertainty in the market and an imminent trend change in the USDCHF pair. Thus, the most likely scenario is the asset’s decline to the support level of 0.9693, the overcoming of which will intensify the negative dynamics up to the level of 0.9383. An alternative scenario is possible if the “bulls” manage to consolidate their positions above the resistance level of 0.9830, then the price may recover to the zone of 0.9944 – 1.0064.
D1
On the daily chart, a Long-Legged Doji candlestick pattern is being formed, which notifies of a price reversal at the top, as well as a Bearish Engulfing pattern, signaling a loss of control over the market by buyers. In the current situation, most likely, the asset will go down to the support level of 0.9693, the overcoming of which will allow quotes to continue moving towards the area of 0.95 – 0.9383.
Support levels: 0.9693, 0.95, 0.9383 | Resistance levels: 0.983, 0.9944, 1.0064
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GBPUSD - investors evaluate the results of the election of the British Prime Minister
The key event, which continues to influence all segments of the UK market, remains the results of the elections for the post of head of the Conservative Party and the government of the country, which were won by Liz Truss, who until now held the position of Minister of Foreign Affairs. She overtook her main opponent, former finance minister Rishi Sunak, with 81,326K votes. Officially, Liz Truss will take office today after an audience with Queen Elizabeth II of The United Kingdom. It is worth noting that the official will have a rather busy start to work, as the national economy is in dire need of support, and the population is counting on additional subsidies to pay for skyrocketing electricity and heating bills. Incumbent officials resigned ahead of forming a new cabinet: Home Secretary Priti Patel, Government Secretariat official Nigel Adams, Home Office deputy head for security Stephen McPartland and Culture Minister Nadine Dorries. It is still difficult to assess what innovations in domestic policy will be adopted, but experts are confident that Liz Truss will continue the course of the previous Prime Minister Boris Johnson, and serious changes should not be expected.
The trading instrument is moving within the global downward channel, falling towards the support line. Technical indicators maintain a stable sell signal: indicator Alligator’s EMA oscillation range expands downwards, and the histogram of the AO oscillator forms downward bars in the sell zone.
Resistance levels: 1.1762, 1.22 | Support levels: 1.1446, 1.113
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FTSE 100 - the stock market shows an upward trend
The key event, which continues to influence all segments of the UK market, remains the results of the elections for the post of Head of the Conservative Party and of the British government, which were won by Liz Truss, who until now held the position of Secretary of Foreign Affairs. She overtook her main opponent, former finance minister Rishi Sunak, with 81.326 thousand votes. The official will have a rather tense start to her post as the national economy is in dire need of support and the population is counting on additional subsidies to pay for skyrocketing electricity and heating bills. Incumbent officials resigned ahead of the formation of a new cabinet: Home Secretary Priti Patel, Government Minister of State Nigel Adams, Home Office deputy head for security Stephen McPartland and Culture Minister Nadine Dorries. It is still difficult to assess what innovations in domestic policy will be adopted, but experts are confident that Liz Truss will continue the course of the previous Prime Minister Boris Johnson and serious changes should not be expected.
The index quotes are traded within the global side channel, approaching the lower border. Technical indicators are holding a sell signal, which has not weakened even against the background of the current upward correction: the range of the Alligator indicator EMAs fluctuations continues expanding and the histogram of the AO oscillator forms descending bars.
Support levels: 7177, 6994 | Resistance levels: 7335, 7565
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FTSE 100 - the stock market shows an upward trend
The key event, which continues to influence all segments of the UK market, remains the results of the elections for the post of Head of the Conservative Party and of the British government, which were won by Liz Truss, who until now held the position of Secretary of Foreign Affairs. She overtook her main opponent, former finance minister Rishi Sunak, with 81.326 thousand votes. The official will have a rather tense start to her post as the national economy is in dire need of support and the population is counting on additional subsidies to pay for skyrocketing electricity and heating bills. Incumbent officials resigned ahead of the formation of a new cabinet: Home Secretary Priti Patel, Government Minister of State Nigel Adams, Home Office deputy head for security Stephen McPartland and Culture Minister Nadine Dorries. It is still difficult to assess what innovations in domestic policy will be adopted, but experts are confident that Liz Truss will continue the course of the previous Prime Minister Boris Johnson and serious changes should not be expected.
The index quotes are traded within the global side channel, approaching the lower border. Technical indicators are holding a sell signal, which has not weakened even against the background of the current upward correction: the range of the Alligator indicator EMAs fluctuations continues expanding and the histogram of the AO oscillator forms descending bars.
Support levels: 7177, 6994 | Resistance levels: 7335, 7565
Shares of The Walt Disney, the leader in the global entertainment industry, are on a corrective downtrend at 110.
On the daily chart, the quotes have left the global downwards channel with dynamic boundaries 80–108, having overcome the resistance line at 107 with a gap that can be worked out this week. On the four-hour chart, it can be seen that despite the working out of the price gap of 108–117, the downside movement potential is limited. The most promising at the moment looks like a possible reversal and subsequent growth of the asset with the consolidation above the initial correction level of 23.6% Fibonacci around 117.
Technical indicators hold a buy signal despite a significant slowdown: indicator Alligator’s EMA oscillation range actively narrows, and the histogram of the AO oscillator is forming bars with a downward trend in the buying zone.
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XAUUSD - Quotes failed to consolidate at the August highs
Gold prices are moderately declining, developing the “bearish” momentum formed the day before. The XAU/USD pair failed to consolidate on Tuesday at its local highs of August 30, reacting to the publication of positive macroeconomic statistics from the US.
The downtrend in demand for gold, which began in early August, is still observed. According to the report of the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), last week the number of net speculative positions in the precious metal corrected from 125.8 thousand to 117.7 thousand, thus, the tendency for sellers to reduce their positions continues. “Bears” still hold the lead in market positions, but the number of positions of “bulls” has also significantly adjusted, amounting to 21.925 thousand against 53.688 thousand for sellers. This week, buyers liquidated 0.615 thousand contracts, while sellers liquidated 2.989 thousand.
Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate a moderate decrease. The price range widens marginally, following the resumption of “bearish” momentum in the ultra-short term. MACD is declining keeping a weak sell signal (located below the signal line). Stochastic is reversing downwards after a short rise at the end of the last trading week, indicating the risks of the development of “bearish” dynamics in the nearest time intervals.
Resistance levels: 1700, 1720, 1730, 1752.87 | Support levels: 1688.5, 1675, 1660.1, 1644.3
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XRPUSD - Downward dynamics
The XRP coin is moving within a corrective sideways channel, reversing downwards, and is currently at 0.3166.
H4
On the four-hour chart of the asset, the local downward wave is a narrow corridor within which the price rebounded from the resistance line at 0.3417 and reversed downwards with the target at the lower border of the 0.27 range. Technical indicators gave a signal to sell: indicator Alligator’s EMA oscillation range expands downwards, and the histogram of the AO oscillator is actively decreasing in the sell zone.
D1
On the daily chart, a sideways channel forms with dynamic boundaries of 0.2950–0.4240, while the price continues to decline towards the support line at 0.2950. Technical indicators strengthen the sell signal: indicator Alligator’s EMA oscillation range expands, and the histogram of the AO oscillator forms new downward bars. In general, both charts indicate a likely continuation of the downward movement, the global target is to exit the sideways channel and decline to a historical low of around 0.2350.
Resistance levels: 0.3520, 0.4215 | Support levels: 0.2950, 0.2350
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USDCAD - Pending Bank of Canada interest rate decision
The Canadian currency could not resist the pressure from the US dollar for a long time, and the USDCAD pair reached annual highs of around 1.322. Even today, the direction of quotations may change after the Bank of Canada announces its decision on the interest rate.
Most experts suggest that 75 basis points will increase the rate, and the interest rate will reach 3.25%, making it the highest among the world’s leading economies. Several experts are confident in a more serious change in value against the backdrop of positive data on Canada’s gross domestic product (GDP), which added 0.8% in the second quarter, which allows the regulator to act more aggressively without fear of a recession in the economy.
The US dollar topped 110 in the USD Index for the first time since 2002 and is currently holding at 110.4 following the release of the non-manufacturing PMI, which hit 56.9 in August, well above analysts’ forecast of a decline to 55.1 points. Today, members of the US Open Market Committee Thomas Barkin and Loretta Meister will make speeches, from which traders expect hints on further actions of the regulator in the field of monetary policy and, in particular, on the issue of changing interest rates.
On the daily chart of the asset, the trading instrument is moving within a wide ascending channel with dynamic boundaries 1.2700–1.3400, approaching the resistance line. Indicator Alligator’s EMA oscillation range expands upwards, and the histogram of the AO oscillator forms rising bars in the buying zone.
Resistance levels: 1.3223, 1.338 | Support levels: 1.3118, 1.2887
USDCHF - the pair has reached a strong resistance level of 0.9850
The USDCHF pair has reached the resistance level of 0.985, and the probability of further growth remains against the backdrop of the upcoming US Federal Reserve meeting, at which the regulator may raise the rate by 75 basis points, which will strengthen the position of the US dollar.
Meanwhile, the EU economy is under pressure: the lack of energy resources, rising inflation, and a slowdown in gross domestic product (GDP) growth, and since Switzerland has close economic ties with the EU, negative factors are reflected in the macroeconomic indicators of this country as well. On Monday, Q2 GDP was published: the value consolidated around 2.8% YoY, which was worse than analysts’ expectations of 3.0%, and it added 0.3% QoQ compared to the forecast of 0.4%.
Thus, the likelihood of further weakening of the Swiss franc remains, and the long-term trend in the USD/CHF pair is likely to continue. For the development of positive dynamics, the “bulls” need to overcome the resistance level of 0.9850 and consolidate above it, and then the target for purchases will be 1.0040 around the highs of May-June 2022.
The medium-term trend remains upward. Last week the market participants broke through the target zone 3 (0.9784–0.9771), and the next target for purchases is zone 4 (0.9926–0.9912). The key support is shifting to 0.9729–0.9715, and if the price corrects into this area, then new long positions in the asset should be considered.
Resistance levels: 0.985, 1.004 | Support levels: 0.965, 0.96
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ADAUSD - Candlestick Analysis
H4
The four-hour chart shows the formation of a Bullish Engulfing pattern, which included a reversal candlestick Hammer, as well as the appearance at the level of 0.4718 of the Three Advancing White Soldiers and Hammer patterns. The combination of these patterns signals that the asset has reached the bottom level, where buyers have become active. In the current situation, a scenario with the uptrend to the resistance level of 0.5831 seems likely, overcoming which will open the way for the “bulls” to the area of 0.7820–0.9362. An alternative scenario is likely in case the “bears” break through the key support level of 0.4159, and then the decline may intensify up to the level of 0.2098.
D1
The daily chart shows that the asset has been consolidating for a long time in the range of 0.4159–0.5831, which may indicate a likely upward reversal. In addition, the fact that the asset has reached the area of low prices, where the “bulls” have activated, is also signaled by the formation of Hammer and Inverted Hammer reversal patterns, while another Bullish Engulfing reversal pattern has formed below the level of 0.4718, which included the Inverted Hammer candle. At the moment, the upward dynamics to the level of 0.5831 seems to be the most probable. In case of a breakout of the key resistance level, the asset may recover higher to the area of 0.7820–0.9362.
Support levels: 0.4159, 0.3031, 0.2098 | Resistance levels: 0.5831, 0.7820, 0.9362
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Walmart
Shares of Walmart, the US company that operates the world’s largest wholesale and retail chain, are moving around 135.
On the daily chart, after reaching the support line at 130, the price reversed and began to correct, forming a local channel with boundaries of 130–145. On the 4-hour chart, the uptrend has a high chance of continuation as the underlying Fibonacci 38.2% retracement at 134.20 was easily overcome. The next resistance is an intermediate Fibonacci 50.0% correction at 139.3, which will become the target for local growth.
Technical indicators confirm the upward momentum: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are above the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram has formed an upward bar in the buying zone.
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#GBPUSD - Quotes have renewed the minimum of 2020
Members of the US Federal Reserve are unanimous in their opinion that the main interest rate should be further increased, and already at the September meeting, the value can be adjusted immediately by 75 basis points and brought to 3.75 – 4% next year. The regulator’s policy implies a reduction in the balance sheet and a tightening of monetary policy to control record inflation and bring it to a neutral indicator of 2% YoY. The US swaps in the market place an 80% chance of a 75 bps rate hike, and the market is pricing hawkish rhetoric from the financial authorities ahead of time.
The long-term downtrend for the GBPUSD instrument is likely to continue, and for this, the “bears” need to break the 2020 low at 1.144. After consolidation below it, the next sales target will be 1.13; if it is held, an upward correction with the targets 1.1695 and 1.1770 will begin.
The medium-term trend remains downward. Last week the traders broke through the target zone 2 (1.1572–1.1536), and the next sell target is zone 3 (1.1212–1.1176), while the key resistance is shifting to 1.1801–1.1765. If reached, it will be possible to consider new short positions with the first target at the current week’s low of around 1.1410.
Resistance levels: 1.1695, 1.1768 | Support levels: 1.144, 1.13
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EURUSD - Market awaiting ECB interest rate decision
Thus, the Q2 EU economy increased by 0.8%, which exceeded the forecasted 0.6%: gross domestic product (GDP) growth amounted to 4.1% YoY compared to 5.4% in the previous period. Nevertheless, it was higher than preliminary estimates of 3.9%, allowing the European Central Bank to continue tightening monetary policy parameters without fear of a possible recession. At the moment, analysts expect an interest rate hike of 75 basis points from 0.5% to 1.25%, but this forecast was made without considering yesterday’s GDP data, which means that the agency can act more aggressively by adjusting the value by 100 basis points.
The American currency did not stay at absolute highs for a long time, and by the end of yesterday’s trading fell below 110 in the USD Index and is now trading around 109.7. The main reason for the negative dynamics of the asset was the disappointment of investors in mortgage interest rates: the indicator almost reached an absolute maximum of 6%, amounting to 5.94%, and against this background, demand for mortgages in the United States fell to a minimum in 22 years. The index of the number of mortgage applications fell to 258.1 points from 705.6 points at the beginning of the year, and the downward trend continues.
The trading instrument is moving toward the support line within the global downward channel. Technical indicators keep a stable sell signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are below the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram forms downward bars in the sell zone.
Resistance levels: 1.007, 1.037 | Support levels: 0.9862, 0.965
Crude Oil - The market is waiting for India’s decision on the introduction of a cap on oil prices from the Russian Federation
Brent Crude Oil is correcting slightly above 88 after losing significantly yesterday amid forecasts from the Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy (EIA), as well as due to India’s possible entry into the ceiling level discussion of the oil price.
As Deputy Secretary of the Treasury Wally Adeyemo told Bloomberg, the Indian authorities are currently studying the initiative of the G7 members, which, also to limited pricing, involves a ban on the insurance of ships transporting Russian oil at a higher cost. Investors fear that if restrictions are approved by the key buyer of oil from the Russian Federation, the demand for resources may decrease significantly, which will undoubtedly affect the price. We also recall yesterday’s statement by Russian President Vladimir Putin, who stressed that no oil would be supplied to countries that supported the decision to introduce a marginal cost level.
On the daily chart, the price is moving within a downwards corridor, gradually approaching the support line. Technical indicators maintain a stable sell signal: fast EMAs of the Alligator indicator are moving away from the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram is forming down bars in the sell zone.
Resistance levels: 91.53, 98.82 | Support levels: 86.85, 79.95
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USDJPY - Yen is holding near record lows
The pressure on the yen continues to come from the prospect of the Bank of Japan maintaining an ultra-loose monetary policy, while the US Federal Reserve intends to continue its aggressive approach in raising interest rates to fight inflation that has reached forty-year highs, while leaving recession risks moderate. Representatives of the American regulator are likely to correct the value by 75 basis points already at the September meeting. In addition, investors drew attention to the speech of Japanese Finance Minister Sunichi Suzuki, who expressed concern about the unilateral sharp fall in the national currency and announced his readiness to intervene in the markets if the situation requires it. However, official comments were not enough to win back the fall of the yen against the background of the active strengthening of the dollar.
Bollinger Bands in D1 chart show stable growth. The price range is expanding; however, it fails to catch the development of “bullish” sentiments. MACD grows, preserving a stable buy signal (located above the signal line). Stochastic, being in the overbought area for a long time, shows a tendency to decrease, reflecting the risks of the US dollar being overbought in the ultra-short term.
Resistance levels: 145, 146, 147 | Support levels: 143.68, 142.5, 141.5, 140.78
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NZDUSD - Candlestick Analysis
H4
On the four-hour chart, at the support level of 0.6031, there is a formation of a reversal Bullish Engulfing candlestick analysis pattern, signaling a change in the balance of power towards buyers, as well as a Gravestone Doji pattern, which, as a rule, appears at the top and is reversal. It can also be fixed at the base, but for this it is necessary to obtain additional confirmation. In the current situation, the likely scenario is the growth of the asset to the resistance level of 0.6172, overcoming which will allow the “bulls” to head higher to the range of 0.6453–0.6703. An alternative scenario is likely if the “bears” break through the key support level of 0.6031, and the price may drop to the area of 0.5849–0.5622.
D1
The daily chart shows the formation of two Hammer figures, which are reversal and signal that the price has reached the bottom. In this case, long positions can be opened after overcoming the resistance level of 0.6172, when the “bulls” test it. If the buyers fail to hold the level of 0.6031, the negative dynamics may intensify up to the level of 0.5622.
Support levels: 0.6031, 0.5849, 0.5622 | Resistance levels: 0.6172, 0.6453, 0.6703
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Shares of eBay, an American online retailer, are trading at 44.
On the daily chart, the price, having left the limits of the global downwards channel with dynamic boundaries 38 – 45, is kept above it, despite approaching the previously passed resistance level.
On the four-hour chart, it is seen that the attempt to enter a full-fledged correction failed, the initial Fibonacci 23.6% correction level at 50 was not broken, and the quotes received a downward impulse, directing them to the year’s low at 40.40, which may be reached in the coming days. Technical indicators have reversed and are holding a stable sell signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are below the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram forms downward bars in the sell zone.
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GBPUSD - The instrument is moving within the global downward channel
Investors are evaluating the announcement of the new British Prime Minister Liz Truss on the abolition from next month of indexation of electricity bills, which will now not exceed 2.5K pounds a year. She also stated the need to expand the sources of electricity supply through increased oil and gas production in the North Sea. Although households have taken the initiative of the official positively, for the economy as a whole, this may become a new problem since 130 – 150 B pounds annually will need to be allocated to finance such a measure. Some experts suggested that these funds would be raised through government loans, which would then be repaid through gradual tariff increases over two years.
In the UK, national mourning has begun in connection with the death of Queen Elizabeth II. The heir to the throne was her son, Prince Charles of Wales, who will be officially proclaimed King Charles III on September 10. The country may enter a new era of change, and it is not yet known how actively the new monarch will be involved in the state’s political affairs.
The trading instrument is moving within the global downward channel, reversing towards a local increase. Technical indicators maintain a weakening sell signal: the Alligator indicator’s EMA oscillation range narrows slightly, and the histogram of the AO oscillator forms rising bars.
Resistance levels: 1.1652, 1.2 | Support levels: 1.14, 1.115
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USDJPY - The yen develops a “bullish” momentum
The devaluation of the Japanese currency reached such limits that any more or less positive event provoked the purchase of an asset. Yesterday, statistics recorded the rapid growth of the Japanese economy in the second quarter: the indicator added 0.9% instead of the 0.7% expected by analysts, while on an annualized basis, gross domestic product (GDP) accelerated to 3.5% from 2.2% earlier against the background of preliminary estimates of experts at 2.9%. Thus, the current policy of the financial authorities not only does not harm economic development but also does not provoke a significant increase in inflation, which is currently at 2.6%. Against this backdrop, Japan is likely to become the only state where a policy of negative rates is being implemented.
The trading instrument is moving as part of a global uptrend, marking a local downward correction, to which technical indicators do not yet react: the Alligator indicator’s EMA oscillation range is directed upwards, and the AO oscillator histogram forms bars above the transition level.
Resistance levels: 144.1, 146.5 | Support levels: 141.7, 138.92
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The Home Depot
On the daily chart, the correction is developing within a wide corridor with dynamic boundaries of 350 – 290.
On the four-hour chart, after reaching the support line, the quotes reversed upwards, breaking the initial correction level of 23.6% Fibonacci around 298. Holding the trading instrument above it is a key factor for the continuation of the upward trend, the target of which is the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level at 315.
Technical indicators are weakening the sell signal: the Alligator indicator’s EMA oscillation range narrows actively, and the histogram of the AO oscillator, trading in the sell zone, forms new rising bars.