ADAUSD - Murray analysis
The ADAUSD pair continues to trade within the short-term downtrend and this week tested the 0.4150 mark (Murray [1/8]), but could not consolidate below it. If successful, the downward dynamics of the cryptocurrency will resume to the levels of 0.3906 (Murray [0/8]) and 0.3662 (Murray [-1/8]). The key for the “bulls” is the level of 0.4394 (Murray [2/8]), supported by the middle line of the Bollinger Bands, when overcoming which it will be possible to reverse the current trend and strengthen the positions of the digital asset to the levels of 0.4882 (Murray [4/8]) and 0.5127 (Murray [5/8]).
The downtrend persists, as evidenced by the downward reversal of the Bollinger Bands and the stabilization of the MACD histogram in the negative zone, however, the upward reversal of the Stochastic does not exclude the continuation of corrective growth, but its potential is seen to be limited.
Resistance levels: 0.4394, 0.4882, 0.5127 | Support levels: 0.4150, 0.3906, 0.3662
AUDUSD - The pair returns to record lows
Investors are waiting for today’s publication of macroeconomic statistics from the US on the situation on the labor market in September. Analysts’ forecasts suggest that the economy will add about 250 thousand new jobs outside the agricultural sector after rising by 315 thousand in the previous month, while Unemployment will remain at the same level of 3.7%. A slight decrease in hourly wages is also possible, but otherwise the estimates are fairly neutral.
In the meantime, the data from Australia released the day before put moderate pressure on the instrument. Thus, Export volumes in August added 2.6% after a sharp decline by 9.9% last month, while Imports for the same period increased by 4.5% after an increase of 5.2% earlier, mainly due to the supply of fuels and lubricants. However, a serious downward correction of the AUD/USD quotes is hindered by rising prices for commodities, primarily coal, which is one of the most important Australian export commodities. Meanwhile, Australia’s Trade Surplus narrowed slightly in August from 8.733 million to 8.324 million Australian dollars, while analysts had expected the figure to rise to 10.500 million Australian dollars.
Technical indicators do not contradict the further development of the “bearish” trend in the short and/or ultra-short term.
Resistance levels: 0.645, 0.6522, 0.6572, 0.665 | Support levels: 0.6362, 0.632, 0.625, 0.62
EURUSD - European currency remains under pressure
The single currency noticeably weakened in the second half of last week after the publication of Friday’s report on the US labor market, which confirmed the commitment of the US Federal Reserve to the course of further tightening of monetary policy. Thus, in September, 263.0 thousand new jobs were created after 315.0 thousand recorded in the previous month. Analysts had expected growth of the indicator by only 250.0 thousand. At the same time, the Average Hourly Earnings in September maintained a monthly growth rate of 0.3%, but slowed down in annual terms from 5.2% to 5.0%. At the same time, the Unemployment Rate fell from 3.7% to 3.5%, while investors did not expect any changes.
Weak macroeconomic statistics from Germany put additional pressure on the instrument. Retail Sales fell 1.3% in August after increasing 1.9% a month earlier, while analysts had expected a decline of 1.0%. In annual terms, the decline in sales accelerated from -2.6% to -4.3%, which turned out to be slightly better than experts’ forecasts at the level of -5.1%.
Meanwhile, gas reserves in European storage facilities, according to the Gas Infrastructure Europe association, exceeded 90.1%, while warm weather in the region, as well as high wind generation rates, contribute to a decrease in “blue fuel” prices in Europe. The spot gas price at the Dutch gas hub TTF fell to a low of 1.612 thousand dollars. Nevertheless, experts believe that in order to combat the consequences of the energy crisis, the European authorities need to spend more than 1.5 trillion euros additionally, otherwise the decline in GDP could range from 6.5 to 11.5%.
Resistance levels: 0.975, 0.98, 0.985, 0.99 | Support levels: 0.97, 0.96, 0.9534, 0.95
AUDUSD - Long-term trend remains downwards
Last week, investors were focused on the publication of economic data from the Federal Bureau of Labor Statistics: Nonfarm Payrolls for September amounted to 263.0K against the forecast of 250.0K. Also, unemployment significantly decreased from the previous 3.7% to 3.5% against expectations of 3.7%, which investors took extremely positively. Following the news release, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange’s (CME Group) FedWatch Instrument estimates the likelihood of a 75 basis point hike in November at 77%. Against this background, the AUDUSD pair broke through 0.6390 and is preparing to continue its decline toward 0.6260.
The long-term trend remains downwards. After breaking through 0.6390, the next sell target is 0.6260, after which the price may drop to 0.61.
The medium-term trend is downwards, and within its framework last week, the target zone 4 (0.6336–0.6316) was reached, which investors are trying to break through today, after which the target for sales will be zone 5 (0.6136–0.6116). The key resistance of the trend is shifting to the levels of 0.6501–0.6483.
Resistance levels: 0.639, 0.6525, 0.67 | Support levels: 0.6260, 0.6100
USDTRY - High inflation puts pressure on lira positions
Technically, the price is close to 18.75 (Murray [8/8]), the breakout of which will give the prospect of further growth in the area of 19.14 (Murray [+1/8]) and 19.53 (Murray [+2/8]). The key for the “bears” is the level of 18.35 (the middle line of the Bollinger Bands, Murray [7/8]), the breakdown of which can become a catalyst for downward dynamics to the levels of 17.96 (Murray [6/8]), 17.57 (Murray [5/8]).
Resistance levels: 18.75, 19.14, 19.53 | Support levels: 18.35, 17.96, 17.57
EURUSD Technical Analysis
The EURUSD pair touched 0.97 level and attempts to break it, reinforcing the expectations of continuing the bearish trend in the upcoming sessions, reminding you that breaking this level will push the price to 0.9550 as a next main station, while the expected decline will remain valid unless the price rallied to breach 0.9790 and hold above it.
The expected trading range for today is between 0.9650 support and 0.9800 resistance.
The expected trend for today: Bearish
The GBPUSD pair completed forming head and shoulders’ pattern that appears on the chart, thus, the chances are valid to provide more negative trades in the upcoming sessions, and the targets begin by surpassing the waited target at 1.1015 to reach 1.0845 as a next negative station.
Therefore, the bearish trend scenario will remain valid and active for the upcoming period, taking into consideration that breaching 1.1186 will stop the current negative pressure and lead the price to turn to rise.
The expected trading range for today is between 1.0990 support and 1.1150 resistance. The expected trend for today: Bearish
NZDUSD Technical Outlook
The NZDUSD pair provided more negative trades to touch our second target at 0.5564 and presses negatively on it, in attempt to confirm breaking it now, reinforcing the expectations of extending the bearish wave on the intraday and short-term basis, waiting to test 0.5500 as a next target.
The EMA50 keeps pressing negatively on the price to support the continuation of the expected bearish trend scenario, noting that holding below 0.5610 is important to continue the suggested decline. The expected trading range for today is between 0.5480 support and 0.560 resistance
The expected trend for today: Bearish
USDCAD Technical Outlook
The USDCAD pair succeeded to touch our waited target at 1.383 now, providing positive trades that support the chances of surpassing this level to head towards achieving more bullish bias in the upcoming sessions, noting that our next target extends to 1.39.
The bullish channel organizes the suggested bullish wave, which will remain valid conditioned by the price stability above 1.376. The expected trading range for today is between 1.376 support and 1.391 resistance.
The expected trend for today: Bullish
Gold Technical Outlook
Gold price continued to decline to surpass our first target at 1673 and reach the extended target at 1660, and we expect the continuation of the negative pressure to break the last level and open the way for more decline on the intraday basis, to head towards visiting 1645 followed by 1630.00 levels as next negative stations.
Therefore, the bearish trend scenario will remain active for the upcoming period, noting that breaching 1686.4 will stop the current negative pressure and lead the price to recover again. The expected trading range for today is between 1640.00 support and 1680.00 resistance.
The expected trend for today: Bearish
USDCHF Technical Outlook
The long-term trend remains upward. Yesterday, the traders broke through the resistance level of 0.995, which opens up the target for buyers around the June high of 1.0040. If it is broken, the next target will be 1.0120. If the price returns below the resistance level of 0.9950, a correction is likely with the nearest target at 0.9840.
The medium-term trend is up. Last week, quotes overcame target zone 3 (0.9903–0.9890), and the target for purchases for this week was zone 4 (1.0049–1.0034). Today, the traders renewed the high around 1.002, and a correction is developing. If within its framework, market participants test the key trend support 0.9876–0.9862, then new long positions from today’s high at 1.002 should be considered.
Resistance levels: 1.004, 1.012 | Support levels: 0.994, 0.984
Crude Oil Technical Outlook
Crude oil price trades negatively to press on 89.75 level, to hint heading to decline on the intraday basis, targeting testing 88.2 initially, noting that breaking this level will extend the bearish wave towards 86.65 as a next negative target.
Therefore, the bearish bias will be suggested for today, noting that breaching 90.6 will stop the current negative pressure and lead the price to resume the bullish wave that its next main target located at 93.17. The expected trading range for today is between 88 support and 91 resistances.
The expected trend for today: Bearish
ETHUSD - Murray analysis
The ETHUSD pair continues to trade within the mid-term descending channel. Currently, the decline has slowed down as the price has formed a sideways range of 1375 - 1250 (Murray [3/8]-[2/8]), in which it has been for more than three weeks.
This week, the quotes are approaching the lower limit of the 1250 range, with consolidation below which further downward dynamics to the levels of 1125 (Murray [1/8]) and 1000 (Murray [0/8]) is possible. The 1375 mark remains key for the “bulls”, its breakout will give the prospect of growth to the levels of 1450 (Fibo retracement 50.0%), 1500 (Murray [4/8]) and 1575 (Fibo retracement 38.2%).
Resistance levels: 1375, 1450, 1500, 1575 | Support levels: 1250, 1125, 1000
USDJPY - The US dollar updates record highs
The USDJPY pair is developing an uptrend, renewing record highs. After some decline last week, the dollar resumed active growth against the yen, despite the risks of new currency interventions from the Bank of Japan: the instrument consolidated above 146.00, and the “bulls” are waiting for the publication of the September minutes of the US Federal Reserve meeting during the day.
Additional pressure on the positions of the yen today is exerted by uncertain macroeconomic statistics from Japan. Machinery Orders in August showed a sharp decline of 5.8% after an increase of 5.3% in the previous month, while analysts expected –2.3%, and in annual terms the indicator increased by 9.7% after 12.8%, shown a month earlier, which also turned out to be worse than forecasts at the level of 12.6%. The day before, August data recorded a surplus in the Trade Balance, which decreased by 96.1% compared to the same period last year and amounted to 58.9 billion yen due to the fact that a weak national currency causes an increase in the cost of imports into the country, while increasing prices Japanese goods sold abroad are not so significant.
During the week, the market’s attention will be drawn to publications from the US. In particular, key inflation statistics for September will be released tomorrow, where current forecasts suggest a slowdown in the Consumer Price Index from 8.3% to 8.1%, while the Core CPI excluding Food and Energy may again adjust from 6.3% to 6.5%.
Resistance levels: 147, 148, 149, 150 | Support levels: 146, 145, 144, 143.51
NZDUSD presses on the support
The NZDUSD pair resumes its negative trading to press on 0.5564 level again, waiting for confirmed break to open the way to head towards our next target at 0.55. The technical indicators provide negative signals that support the continuation of the expected decline, which will remain valid conditioned by the price stability below 0.5640.
The expected trading range for today is between 0.55 support and 0.5615 resistance, and the expected trend for today is Bearish.
EURUSD Ends the Temporary Rise
The EURUSD pair bounced downwards clearly after the temporary rise that it witnessed yesterday, as the EMA50 (BOA middle bankd) formed solid resistance barrier against the price, to start pressing on 0.9670 level again, which keeps the bearish trend scenario active on the intraday basis, waiting to visit 0.9630 (Fibo 78.6) followed by 0.9550 levels as next main targets. Stochastic provides negative signal that supports the continuation of the expected decline, which will remain valid conditioned by the price stability below 0.9790.
The expected trading range for today is between 0.9600 support and 0.9760 resistance. The expected trend for today is Bearish.
IBM gives in to negative pressures
IBM’s stock skidded in the intraday levels after the company announced an investment of $20 million in New York in PC devices, hybrid cloud services, AI, and quantum computers, with the stock sliding 2.79%, and settling at 122.23, with trading volumes surpassing 5 million shares, above 10-day averages of 4.4 million shares.
Technically, the stock is hurt by negative pressure from the 50-day SMA, while hurt by piercing the upward trend line recently in the short term, as the RSI reached overbought levels. Therefore we expect more losses for the stock, targeting the first resistance at 118.80, provided the resistance of 126.30 held on.
Expected trend for today: Bearish
USDJPY surpasses the target
The USDJPY pair opens today’s trading with clear positivity to breach 145.9 level and attempts to hold above it, reinforcing the expectations of continuing the bullish trend on the intraday and short term basis, waiting to visit 147 as a next main target. The EMA50 (BB Middle line) keeps supporting trading inside the bullish channel that appears on the chart, noting that breaking 145.9 and holding below it might press on the price to achieve some temporary bearish correction before any new attempt to rise.
The expected trading range for today is between 145.6 support and 147 resistances. The expected trend for today: Bullish
Crude oil price approaches the extended target
Crude oil price shows positive trades to approach testing the key resistance 88.65, which represents one of the next trend keys besides 86.65 support line, as the price needs to surpass one of these levels to detect its destination clearly, which makes us continue with our neutrality until now.
To review the details of the expected targets of the beach, the expected trading range for today is between 85.50 support and 89.50 resistance. The expected trend for today: Neutral
Sterling climbs nearly 1% despite GDP contraction data
Sterling rose against most major currencies on Wednesday despite some negative UK data. Earlier UK data showed GDP contracted 0.3% m/m in September while analysts expected no change in the growth rate.
The Greenback
The dollar index rose 0.2% to 113.4 as of 17:05 GMT, with a session-high at 113.5, and a low at 113.05. Tomorrow, market await consumer prices data for September. Such data will give a clue about the future directions for the Federal Reserve on monetary policies and rate decisions. Earlier US data showed producer prices rose 0.4% m/m in September, above estimates of 0.2%.
The Federal Reserve will release minutes of the September meeting, at which it decided to hike rates by 75 basis points, the third such hike in a row to 3.25%, the highest since 2008.