EURUSD builds bearish channel
The EURUSD pair continues to fluctuate around 0.97 level, and finds difficulty to confirm breaking it, noticing that the price moves inside intraday bearish channel that supports the chances of continuing the expected bearish wave for the upcoming period, which targets 0.963 followed by 0.955 levels as next main stations.
In general, we will continue to suggest the bearish trend unless breaching 0.9790 level and holding above it, noting that stochastic loses its positive momentum now to support the chances of resuming the suggested decline.
The expected trading range for today is between 0.96 support and 0.976 resistance. The expected trend for today: Bearish.
NZDUSD Awaits New Declines
The NZDUSD pair provided slight positive trades yesterday to test 0.56 barrier, noticing that stochastic begins to provide negative signals now, waiting to motivate the price to resume the bearish wave that its targets begin by breaking 0.5564 to open the way to visit 0.55.
The EMA50 (BB middle line) supports the expected decline, which will remain valid unless the price rallied to breach 0.564 followed by 0.5705 levels and hold above them. The expected trading range for today is between 0.553 support and 0.5640 resistance. The expected trend for today: Bearish.
USDCAD Within Positive Pattern
The USDCAD pairâs recent trades are confined within bullish pennant pattern, thus, breaching 1.3855 will activate the positive effect of this pattern and push the price to resume the main bullish wave, to open the way to rally towards our next main target at 1.3900.
Therefore, the bullish trend scenario will remain valid and active for the upcoming period, supported by the EMA50 (BB Middle band), taking into consideration that the continuation of the bullish wave requires holding above 1.3700. The expected trading range for today is between 1.3760 support and 1.3900 resistance.
The expected trend for today: Bullish.
USDCHF Hits the Target
The USDCHF pair succeeded to touch our main waited target at 1.0064 and found solid resistance there, to rebound bearishly and head towards achieving expected decline in the upcoming sessions, targeting testing 0.9910 followed by 0.9860 levels mainly. Therefore, the bearish bias will be suggested for today, noting that breaching 1.0064 will stop the expected decline and lead the price to achieve more gains on the short term and medium term basis.
The expected trading range for today is between 0.9900 support and 1.0064 resistance. The expected trend for today: Bearish.
AUDUSD heads towards the resistance
The AUDUSD pair approached few pips away from our waited target at 0.6160, and bounced upwards strongly to head towards expected test to the bearish channelâs resistance around 0.6410, making the bullish bias suggested in the upcoming sessions. Surpassing 0.6350 is required to reinforce the expectations of continuing the rise, noting that breaking 0.6275 will stop the suggested bullish bias and press on the price to resume the main bearish trend again.
The expected trading range for today is between 0.6275 support and 0.6410 resistance. The expected trend for today: Bullish.
Wall Street declines after inflation data
US stock indices declined on Thursday amid concerns about a tighter monetary policy by the Federal Reserve following inflation data. US consumer prices rose 8.2% in September, beating estimates of 8.1%, and less than 8.3% in the previous reading. Core prices, excluding food and energy, rose 6.6%, also above estimates of 6.5%, and above the previous readingâs 6.3%.
-
Core consumer prices rose 0.6% on a monthly basis, up from 0.4% in August.
-
US unemployment claims jumped to 228 thousand in the week ending October 8 from 219 thousand in the previous reading, while analysts expected 225 thousand.
-
Dow Jones fell 0.7%, or 206 points to 29,004, while S&P 500 shed 1%, or 36 points to 3,540, as NASDAQ declined 1.4%, or 145 points to 10,275.
USDCHF Tests the Resistance Again
USDCHF pair returned to rise after leaning on 0.9965 level, to test 1.0064 level again, which formed solid resistance against the price, to keep the negative scenario active until now, waiting to resume the bearish bias to head towards 0.991 followed by 0.986 levels as next main targets. Stochastic negativity supports the expected decline, which will remain valid unless breaching 1.0064 and holding above it.
The expected trading range for today is between 0.995 support and 1.008 resistance. The expected trend for today: Bearish.
Dollar climbs after a batch of US data
Dollar rose against major currencies on Friday, bolstering the gains following a batch of new data.
-
The data showed retail sales were flat last month, while analysts expected a 0.2% rise.
-
Core sales rose 0.1% last month, beating estimates of a 0.1% dip.
-
Michigan\Reuters consumer confidence index rose to 59.8 in October from 58.6 in September.
-
Recent data this week showed consumer prices rose 8.2% in September, while analysts expected 8.1%, and compared to 8.3% in August.
-
Such data bolsters the case for aggressive policy tightening and rate hikes by the Fed, which threatens a global recession.
The dollar index rose 0.8% to 113.2 as of 17:56 GMT, with a session-high at 113.4, and a low at 112.1.
XAUUSD - Upward correction around 1650
Gold quotes again came under pressure after the publication of statistics on inflation in the US: in September, consumer prices added 8.2% after rising by 8.3% in the previous month and turned out to be worse than analystsâ forecasts of an increase of 8.1%, while the Harmonized Core CPI for the same period accelerated from 6.3% to 6.6%. This strengthened investorsâ confidence that the US Federal Reserve will continue raising interest rates and, already during the November meeting, will increase the value by 75 basis points for the fourth time in a row. A number of other leading central banks of the world adhere to a similar policy, since inflationary risks are still extremely high.
The trend to increase the number of positions in the market continues, and last week was the third in a row, when an increase in the number of contracts was recorded. According to the latest report from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the number of net speculative positions increased to 94.4 thousand from 88.4 thousand a week earlier. If one pays attention to the balance of sellers and buyers, the âbearsâ still hold the lead in the positions of swap dealers, the number of which is 169.310 thousand against 91.854 thousand of the âbullsâ. As for the dynamics, this week the changes affected the buyers more: they liquidated 2.423 thousand, and the sellers got rid of only 0.511 thousand.
In turn, quotes are supported by ongoing geopolitical risks due to the military conflict on the territory of Ukraine, which is still in an acute phase and there are no clear trends towards its diplomatic resolution.
Resistance levels: 1653.92, 1675, 1688.58, 1700 | Support levels: 1640, 1620, 1600, 1579.25
Netflix - Technical Analysis
Shares of Netflix, an American entertainment company, are on a corrective trend at 230. On the daily chart, the price is showing a poor upward momentum, trying to reach the initial Fibonacci 23.6% retracement at 288. The four-hour chart shows that the potential for upward and downward movement is approximately equal since the quotes are moving in a narrow sideways corridor of 212â250 Soon, the price may test the upper limit of the channel at 250, consolidation above which will open the way to 288.
BTCUSD - Market Uncertainty Persists
The BTCUSD pair had a rather volatile week, dropping to four-week lows around 18190 but then returned to 19940. However, quotes generally remain in the range of 19000â19400.
The sharp decline in prices was due to the release of September data on inflation in the US, which remained at very high levels: the consumer price index reached 8.2%, and Core CPI â 6.6%, which forced the US Federal Reserve to adopt âhawkishâ rhetoric, strengthening the position of the American currency against the main competitors. However, the downward dynamics were short-term, and soon the trading instrument regained lost positions.
The price chart is probably forming a Downwards Triangle, and the trading instrument is close to exiting it. If it consolidates below the 19000â18750 zone, the decline will continue to 18000 (Murrey [â1/8]), 16900 (Fibonacci extension 100), and if 19531.25 (Murrey [1/8], the middle line of Bollinger Bands) is broken up resume by 20312.5 (Murrey [2/8]) and 21093.7 (Murrey [3/8]).
Resistance levels: 19531.2, 20312.5, 21093.7, 21875 | Support levels: 18750, 18000, 16900
ETHUSD - Murray analysis
This week, the quotes have overcome the mark of 1321 (Fibo retracement 61.8%, the middle line of the Bollinger Bands) and can continue to grow to the upper limit of the lateral range of 1375, which will allow them to leave the descending channel and rise to the levels of 1450 (Fibo retracement 50.0%), 1500 (Murray [4/8]) and 1575 (Fibo retracement 38.2%). The reverse consolidation of the price below the level of 1321.00 will give the prospect of a return to the lower limit of the trading range of 1250, however, the resumption of serious downward dynamics is possible only in case of its breakdown. In this case, the targets will be 1125 (Murray [1/8]) and 1000 (Murray [0/8]).
Resistance levels: 1375, 1450, 1500, 1575 | Support levels: 1250, 1125, 1000
XAUUSD - The âbullsâ reduce positions in the asset
The situation on the gold market is still ambiguous: historically, the precious metal has always been a refuge in case of geopolitical tensions, but at the moment, its quotes are under pressure from high interest rates and, as a result, a growing dollar. The hawkish monetary policy provokes an increase in government bonds yield, which are more reliable than gold, and high rates (4% on 10-year bonds) additionally attract investor capital into bonds. Also, since the price of gold is denominated in dollars, the latterâs growth will always make the metal cheaper, which is now observed.
On the daily chart of the asset, the price is moving in a downward channel, approaching the support line.
Resistance levels: 1672, 1730 | Support levels: 1620, 1570
GBPUSD Technical Analysis
The GBPUSD pair faces negative pressure to attack the bullish channelâs support line and press on the next key support 1.1518, which urges caution from the upcoming trading, as confirming the break will stop the expected positive scenario for today and force the price to start new bearish wave, while the price needs to step above 1.1.1357 again to regain the bullish trend that its next target located at 1.1490.
The expected trading range for today is between 1.1230 support and 1.1360 resistance. The expected trend for today: Bullish.
EURUSD Technical Analysis
The EURUSD pair shows bearish bias to approach testing the key support 0.9808, and the price needs to hold above this level to keep the bullish trend active, waiting to breach 0.9865 to confirm extending the bullish wave towards 0.9873, noting that breaking 0.9808 will press on the price to test 0.9700 level as a next negative station.
The expected trading range for today is between 0.9790 support and 0.9940 resistance. The expected trend for today: Bullish.
AUDUSD - Australian labor market under pressure
Todayâs report on the labor market did not support the Australian currency: unemployment in the country remained at 3.5%, and its growth compared to August was less than 0.1%. The number of unemployed increased by 9.0K to 499.4K people, and their percentage among young people decreased to 7.9%, while the employment-to-population ratio corrected to 64.2% from 64.3% a month earlier. In turn, full-time employment increased by 13.3K people, and part-time employment decreased by 12.4K people, reinforcing the negative trend of previous months, as citizens strive for stable work in the face of rapid inflation and higher interest rates on loans.
On the daily chart of the asset, the price is falling within the local channel, holding near the support line. Technical indicators maintain a stable sell signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are kept significantly from the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram is deep in the sell zone.
Resistance levels: 0.632, 0.65 | Support levels: 0.62, 0.605
EURUSD Under the Negative Pressure
EURUSD pair faced clear negative pressure yesterday to break 0.979 level and close the daily candlestick below it, which pushes the price to trade with expected negativity in the upcoming sessions, especially after exiting the intraday bullish channel that appears on the chart, to head towards achieving negative targets that start at 0.9700 and extend to 0.9630 after surpassing the previous level.
Therefore, the bearish bias will be suggested for today, supported by moving below the EMA50, noting that breaching 0.9790 will stop the expected decline and lead the price to recover again.
The expected trading range for today is between 0.9660 support and 0.9830 resistance. The expected trend for today: Bearish.
ADAUSD - Murrey analysis
The ADAUSD pair is moving within a short-term downtrend and this week reached the yearâs lows around 0.3418 (Murrey [â2/8]). Fixing the price below this level will give the prospect of further decline to 0.3173 (Murrey [â2/8] for H4) and 0.2900 (the lower border of the downwards channel). The key point for the âbullsâ remains 0.3906 (Murrey [8/8]), supported by the middle line of Bollinger Bands. If it consolidates above it, the price will return to the main Murrey trading range and can rise to the area of 0.4150 (Murrey [1/8], upper downwards channel border) or 0.4395 (Murrey [2/8]).
Resistance levels: 0.3662, 0.3906, 0.415, 0.4395 | Support levels: 0.3418, 0.3173, 0.29
GBPUSD - The political crisis in the UK puts pressure on the pound quotes
GBPUSD is trading with a multidirectional dynamics, testing the level of 1.1200 for a breakdown. The British currency is still under pressure from the rising US dollar, which is supported by expectations of a tightening of the US Federal Reserveâs monetary policy. The Bank of England is also set to further increase the interest rate, given the fact that inflation in the UK in September exceeded the psychological barrier of 10.0%; in addition, the regulator is considering launching a quantitative tightening program.
At the same time, the Bank of England is forced to respond not only to economic challenges, but also to the political crisis. The day before, British Prime Minister Liz Truss announced her resignation after only 45 days in office, but the official will continue to fulfill her duties until the elections, which are to be held next week. Analysts call the former Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak the most likely candidate for the post of chairman of the Conservative Party and the head of government. In addition, Boris Johnson announced the decision to return to his political career. Truss resigned after being criticized for an initiative to reduce the fiscal burden and subsidize utility bills.
Today, investors are watching the publication of a block of macroeconomic statistics from the UK on the dynamics of Retail Sales: on a monthly basis, the indicator slowed down the negative dynamics from -1.6% to -1.4%, and on an annualized basis, on the contrary, strengthened it from -5.4% to -6.9%, while Retail Sales excluding Fuel on a monthly basis corrected from -1.6% to -1.5% with a forecast of -0.3%, and from -5.0% to -6.2% on an annual basis, although analysts expected -4.1%. Weak statistics may push the pound quotes to a new decline.
Resistance levels: 1.13, 1.1494, 1.16, 1.17 | Support levels: 1.115, 1.106, 1.0922, 1.06
EURUSD - EU leaders agree on joint gas purchases
The instrument continues to slowly decline, despite the incoming positive signals after the summit of EU leaders yesterday, at which, according to the head of the European Council, Charles Michel, they managed to reach a common agreement in the field of energy security. In particular, the prospect of creating a cartel of European gas buyers, which will be engaged in the purchase and subsequent gas distribution to all countries of the region, is being considered. At the initial stage, it is planned to allocate up to 15% of the total volume of purchases to the organization, and in case of its successful work, increase this figure. As for the macroeconomic component, inflation growth to 9.9% in September was already priced in, thanks to which the market reaction was restrained, and investors are preparing for the next increase in interest rates by members of the European Central Bank (ECB).
The trading instrument moves within the downward global channel near the resistance line.
Resistance levels: 0.987, 1.01 | Support levels: 0.9700, 0.9537