USDJPY Faced Strong Negative Pressure
The USDJPY pair faced strong negative pressures yesterday, as it broke 139.45 and reached 137.65 areas, but it bounced upwards quickly to settle above the first level, which keeps the bullish trend scenario active, waiting to head towards 141.80 as a main target. Therefore, we will continue to suggest the bullish trend for the upcoming period conditioned by the price stability above 139.45.
The expected trading range for today is between 139.50 support and 141.40 resistance, and the expected trend for today is Bullish.
GBPUSD Technical Analysis
The GBPUSD pair resumes its positive trading to surpass 1.1900 barrier, reinforcing the expectations of continuing the bullish trend for today, organized inside the main bullish trend, depending on the price stability above 1.1780, noting that our main waited targets begin at 1.2000 and extend to 1.2135.
The expected trading range for today is between 1.1780 support and 1.1975 resistance, the expected trend for today is Bullish.
EURUSD Technical Analysis
The EURUSD pair didn’t show any strong move since morning, thus, no change to the expected bullish trend scenario for today, supported by stochastic gain to the positive momentum gradually, besides the EMA50 that carries the price from below, reminding you that our main waited target is located at 1.0515, while holding above 1.0285 represents key condition to continue the expected rise.
The expected trading range for today is between 1.0285 support and 1.0465 resistance, and the expected trend for today is Bullish.
Euro gives up four-month high on profit-taking
Euro fell in European trade off four-month highs on track for the first loss in three days on active profit-taking, while two-year German yields fell. Dollar rebounded from multi-month highs after strong data on US retail sales in October following remarks by Fed officials which asserted the continued efforts to bring inflation down. EURUSD fell over 0.3% to 1.0359, with a session-high at 1.0398, after rising 0.45% on Wednesday, the second profit in a row, marking four-month highs at 1.0481.
Such gains came as concerns about a wider conflict in eastern Europe subsided as the NATO stated the recent missile that hit Poland was probably a mistaken shot from the Ukrainian air defence force.
German Yields
Two-year German treasury yields fell over 0.6% today away from recent 14-year highs, in turn pressuring euro. A recent spike in yields to 14-year highs at 2.252% played a major role in recent extensive gains by the euro as the ECB prepares more aggressive policy tightening to come.
The Dollar
The dollar index rose 0.3% on Thursday away from three-month lows at 105.34, on track for first profit in three sessions against a basket of major rivals. The gains came after data showed US retail sales rose past estimates in October.
GBPJPY Holds Below the Barrier
GBPJPY pair attempted to form some positive waves to test the sideways range’s resistance at 166.8 and settles below it, as the stability below this barrier will allow us to suggest the negative attempts for now, to target 165.25 as a first station, followed by waiting to reach the initial support near 164.5. Note that succeeding to breach the current barrier and getting positive close above it will confirm regaining the bullish bias, to expect forming strong positive rally and target 167.9 initially, followed by reaching 169.
The expected trading range for today is between 166.80 and 165.25, and the expected trend for today is Bearish.
EURJPY Tends Towards the Negativity
The EURJPY pair kept its negative stability below 145.60, to reinforce the chances of starting the previously suggested bearish correction, expecting to gather the negative momentum soon and decline towards 143.30 level as a first negative target, while breaking it might extend trades towards 142.5 followed by reaching the bullish channel’s support line at 141.4.
The expected trading range for today is between 145.60 and 144.2, and the expected trend for today is Bearish.
AUDUSD Touches the First Target
The AUDUSD pair succeeded to touch our waited target at 0.6650 and bounced upwards clearly from there, to head towards resuming the bullish track on the intraday and short term basis, on its way to test 0.6767 initially, noting that breaching this level will push the price to 0.6870 as a next positive station. Therefore, the bullish will be suggested for today conditioned by the price stability above 0.6650.
The expected trading range for today is between 0.6665 support and 0.6790 resistance, and the expected trend for today is Bullish.
Dow Jones - Index headed for August highs
Quotes of US stock indicators slowed their growth against the background of ambiguous rhetoric of officials of regional Federal Reserve Banks (FRB) regarding further prospects for raising interest rates. Thus, the head of the St. Louis Fed, James Bullard, noted that the regulator needs to continue the “hawkish” course, since the current interest rate level does not limit economic activity sufficiently. In his opinion, the target level of the value may range from 5% to 7%, however, if inflation in the USA slows down in the coming months and quarters, the US Fed will not have to tighten monetary policy as sharply as expected at the moment.
On the daily chart, the index quotes continue their corrective dynamics and increase, reaching a local maximum in early August at around 34000.
Support levels: 33180, 31750 | Resistance levels: 34000, 35350
EURUSD turns to decline
The EURUSD pair couldn’t manage to reach 1.04 barrier, to face negative pressure and start testing 1.0285 level now, and by taking a deeper look at the chart, we find that the price completed forming double top pattern that we expect to push the price to turn to decline, as breaking this level represents the key to confirm rallying towards 1.0175 followed by 1.0135 levels as main negative targets.
Therefore, the bearish bias will be suggested for today unless breaching 1.0370 and holding above it. The expected trading range for today is between 1.02 support and 1.0360 resistance, and the expected trend for today is Bearish.
NZDUSD Loses Momentum
The NZDUSD pair found solid resistance at 0.6200 barrier, to decline and heads towards expected test to 0.6100 level, as it lost its positive momentum, and we suggest the continuation of the bearish bias to break this level and head towards 0.5990 areas mainly. Therefore, we are waiting for more expected decline on the intraday basis, noting that breaching 0.6185 will stop the suggested negative scenario and lead the price to recover again.
The expected trading range for today is between 0.6080 support and 0.6185 resistance, and the expected trend for today is Bearish.
GBPUSD draws negative formation
The GBPUSD pair turns downwards to move below 1.1900 barrier, as it recorded lower high that makes us suggest witnessing trend turn to the downside, on its way to achieve negative targets that we expect to start at 1.1710 and extend to reach the bullish channel’s support line around 1.1490.
Therefore, we expect to witness bearish trend in the upcoming sessions, and breaking 1.1760 will ease the mission of achieving the suggested targets, while the price needs to hold below 1.1945 to continue the expected decline.
The expected trading range for today is between 1.1750 support and 1.1920 resistance, and the expected trend for today is Bearish.
Euro sharpens decline to two-week low amid grim outlook
Euro fell in European trade against dollar for third straight session, hitting two-week lows amid grim outlook for European services and manufacturing, which could hinder the ECB’s policy tightening plans. The dollar extended its gains following recent remarks by Fed officials, which confirms the ECB will carry on its battle against inflation in the US. EURUSD fell 0.7% fell 1.0252, the lowest since November 11, after losing 0.4% on Friday, the second loss in a row as two-year German treasury yields slowed down.
Euro fell 0.3% last week against dollar on profit-taking away from four-month highs at 1.0481.
Grim Outlook
Europe’s manufacturing PMI data are expected later today to show a slowdown in activities in November.
The data is expected to bring down bets on the European Central Bank’s expected rate hikes at upcoming meetings.
The Dollar
The dollar index rose 0.6% on Monday on track for the third profit in a row, hitting two-week highs at 107.59 against a basket of major rivals.
Recent US data showed retail sales rose past estimates in October, while Fed officials such as San Francisco Fed President Mary Dale said it’s reasonable the Fed will raise rates to 5.25% by early next year.
EURUSD Confirms the Break
The EURUSD pair ended yesterday below 1.0285 level, to get more confirmation to the continuation of the expected bearish trend for the upcoming period, supported by moving below the EMA50 that presses negatively on the price, waiting for more decline to achieve our negative targets that start at 1.0175 followed by 1.0135.
Stochastic begins to lose the positive momentum gradually to support the expectations to decline, noting that breaching 1.0285 followed by 1.0305 levels will stop the negative scenario and lead the price to recover again.
The expected trading range for today is between 1.0175 support and 1.0320 resistance, and the expected trend for today is Bearish.
NZDUSD - Investors expect a decrease in trading activity during the week
Although yesterday’s report on consumer spending with credit cards showed an annual growth of 24.8%, which is lower than the previous month’s figure (34.0%), investors found a positive driver in the statistics on foreign trade levels. According to Statistics New Zealand (Stats.nz), the country’s exports in October increased by 758.0M New Zealand dollars, or 14.0%, to reach 6.1B New Zealand dollars, while imports rose by 1.6B New Zealand dollars, or 24 0%, amounting to 8.3B New Zealand dollars, and thus the trade deficit rose to –2.1B New Zealand dollars. Traditionally, the highest growth in the structure of imports was shown by fuel prices, which increased by 44.0%, and in the structure of exports, livestock products kept leadership, adding 34.0% in value.
The trading instrument left the global downward channel on the daily chart, having confidently consolidated above the resistance line.
Resistance levels: 0.619, 0.645 | Support levels: 0.603, 0.577
GBPJPY Technical Analysis
The GBPJPY pair provided new bullish rally yesterday, to touch 168.3 level and confirm its surrender to the domination of the bullish bias by moving away from the additional support at 166.8, reminding you that the fluctuation within the bullish channel and the major indicators that provide the positive momentum allow us to suggest more bullish attempts, to surpass 169 obstacle and move towards the next main station at 170.2.
The expected trading range for today is between 167.40 and 169, and the expected trend for today is Bullish.
EURJPY Provides Positive Signal
The EURJPY pair stared today by forming bullish wave, surpassing 145.65 barrier to hint getting rid of the negative pressures and start resuming the main bullish attack on the near term and medium term period. In case the price got a positive close above the breached barrier and getting continuous positive momentum by the major indicators, we expect to target 146.20 followed by reaching 147.1 levels, while turning back to fluctuate below 145.65 might force it to suffer some losses by crawling towards 144.5.
The expected trading range for today is between 145.5 and 146.2, and the expected trend for today is Bullish.
Gold Price Keeps its Negative Stability
Gold price tested 1746.40 level and kept its stability below it, to resume the negative trades and attempts to move away from this level, which keeps the correctional bearish trend valid, waiting to test 1721.65 as a next main target. The EMA50 forms negative pressure that supports the expected decline, which will remain valid unless breaching 1746.4 – 1754 levels and holding above them.
The expected trading range for today is between 1715 support and 1750 resistance, and the expected trend for today is Bearish.
Silver Price Tests the Key Resistance
Silver price continued to rise to test 21.30 resistance line, and bounced downwards clearly from there, to support the continuation of the bearish trend domination, waiting to test 20.72 level initially, which breaking it represents the key to rally towards 20.25 as a next correctional target. Therefore, we will continue to suggest the bearish trend for the upcoming period unless the price rallied to breach 21.30 and hold above it.
The expected trading range for today is between 20.50 support and 21.30 resistance, and the expected trend for today is Bearish.
Gold hovers near two-week lows ahead of Fed’s minutes
Gold prices settled in European trade in a tight range of trading near two-week lows as investors shun new positions ahead of the Fed’s last meeting minutes. The minutes will provide clues on the future of US monetary policy and the pace of interest rates.
Prices Today
Gold prices traded around $1,738 an ounce as of 08:55 GMT, with a session-high at $1,745. Gold prices closed Tuesday over 0.1% higher, the first profit in five sessions away from two-week lows at $1,732.50.
The Fed
As of 19:00 GMT, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of the November 1-2 meeting, at which policy makers voted to increase interest rates by 75 basis points for the fourth time in a row to 4%, the highest since December 2007. The Fed asserted back then the fight against inflation requires continuous increases in borrowing rates until consumer prices are brought under control.
Interest Rate Prospects
Markets now are pricing a 75% chance of a 0.5% rate hike in December, and a 25% chance of a 0.75% rate hike.
Estimates
Markets remain a bit jittery ahead of Fed’s minutes, with some analysts expecting some modest gains for gold prices until year’s end as the dollar weakens gradually.
The SPDR
Gold holdings at the SPDR Gold Trust rose 0.87 tones yesterday, the second increase in a row to a total of 906.93 tones, the highest since November 14.
XRPUSD - Authorities are preparing to introduce restrictions for the crypto sector
In general, the market remains negatively affected by the bankruptcy of the FTX exchange, which continues to cause an outflow of investors’ funds from digital assets and may lead to the introduction of restrictions for cryptocurrency entrepreneurship by the authorities. It should be noted that US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Deputy Governor of the Bank of England John Cunliffe have already spoken out for the soonest strengthening of regulation of the sector, and representatives of the American Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA) have announced an audit of the advertising policy of companies. The current market situation is pushing global regulators to designate clearer rules of operation, but some experts believe that they will only complicate the business conditions for many projects.
Technically, the price has reversed from the 0.3418 mark (Murray [-1/8]) and is aiming for the 0.3906 level (Murray [0/8], the middle line of the Bollinger Bands), which is the key for the “bulls”. In case of its breakout, the growth may continue to the levels of 0.4330 (Fibo retracement 23.6%) and 0.4630. The most important level for the “bears” remains 0.3418, a breakdown of which will give the prospect of a decline to the area of 0.3165 (November lows), 0.2930 (Murray [-2/8]).
Resistance levels: 0.3906, 0.4330, 0.4630 | Support levels: 0.3418, 0.3165, 0.2930.