ADA USD - the conflict between Binance and FTX continues to put pressure on the market
The cryptocurrency market suddenly found itself under serious pressure amid the conflict between the two largest digital platforms. At the beginning of the week, the head of Binance, Changpeng Zhao, announced the company’s withdrawal from the investment agreement with FTX and the refusal to operate with its own token of this FTT exchange. This decision was caused by suspicions of overstating the balance sheet of Alameda Presearch. As a result, the FTX platform began to experience significant liquidity problems, investors began to withdraw funds, and the value of FTT sharply decreased, pulling the leading cryptocurrencies with it. After that, the management of both platforms had to realize that if the consequences of this situation were similar to the fall of the LUNA token, the entire digital asset sector would be greatly damaged, investors would lose interest in it or be wary of it, and regulators would make new efforts to limit the activities of the cryptocurrency community. As a result, Sam Bankman-Fried and Changpeng Zhao agreed to sell FTX assets to Binance exchange, which should ensure the preservation of its clients’ funds. This decision, however, has not yet been able to stabilize the market and the fall in prices of leading assets continues.
The XRP token reacted to the current situation with a decline and is now close to the support zone of 0.3418-0.3360 (Murray [2/8], October lows). In case of its breakdown, the decline will continue to the levels of 0.3173 (Murray [1/8]), 0.2929 (Murray [0/8]). The key for the “bulls” is the level of 0.3906 (Murray [4/8], the middle line of the Bollinger Bands), consolidation above which will give the prospect of growth to the levels of 0.4394 (Murray [6/8]), 0.4638 (Murray [7/8]).
Resistance levels: 0.3906, 0.4394, 0.4638 | Support levels: 0.3360, 0.3173, 0.2929
USDJPY surpasses the first target
The USDJPY pair resumed its negative trading clearly to surpass our first target at 146 and settles below it, confirming the continuation of the bearish trend domination, and the way is open to head towards our next negative target at 144.2. Therefore, we are waiting for more expected decline in the upcoming sessions, organized inside the correctional bearish channel that appears on the chart, noting that holding below 147.17 is important to continue the bearish trend.
The expected trading range for today is between 144.40 support and 146 resistance, and the expected trend for today is Bearish.
EURUSD tests the support
The EURUSD pair traded negatively on yesterday’s evening to test the key support 1.0, keeping its stability above it, accompanied by witnessing clear positive signals through stochastic now, while the EMA50 continues to provide the positive support to the price. Therefore, these factors encourage us to keep our bullish overview that its next target located at 1.0185, noting that breaking 1.0 will stop the positive scenario and press on the price to turn to decline.
The expected trading range for today is between 0.9950 support and 1.0120 resistance, and the expected trend for today is Bullish.
GBPUSD Under the Negative Pressure
The GBPUSD pair faced strong negative pressure yesterday, as it broke 1.1510 level and decline to reach 23.6% Fibonacci level at 1.1326 direct, noticing that the price begins to rebound bullishly by today’s open, to hint heading to recover again and regain the bullish trend. Therefore, we suggest witnessing positive trades in the upcoming sessions, supported by the positive overlapping signal provided by stochastic, noting that breaking 1.1326 will press on the price to suffer new losses and head towards the next correctional level at 1.1130.
The expected trading range for today is between 1.1320 support and 1.1500 resistance, and the expected trend for today is Bullish.
Euro resumes gains ahead of US inflation data
Euro rose in European trade against dollar on track for two-month highs amid prospects of further policy tightening by the ECB. The greenback lost additional ground ahead of US inflation data in October, which will provide additional clues on the Fed’s next rate hike in December.
EURUSD rose 0.35% to 1.0043, with a session-low at 1.0006, after falling 0.6% yesterday, the first loss in four days on profit-taking away from two-month highs at 1.0096.
The ECB
German two-year treasury yields are hovering near late 2008 highs at 2.252% recently. Such a spike to 14-year highs are based on expected policy tightening by the ECB soon to close the policy gap with the US.
The Dollar
The dollar index fell 0.3% on Thursday on track for two-month lows at 109.36 against a basket of major rivals. Such a decline comes ahead of major US inflation data in October, which will provide crucial clues to the Fed’s December policy decisions. Currently, traders estimates a 67% chance of a 0.5% rate hike by the Fed in December, and a 33% chance of a 0.75% rate hike.
USDCAD - Markets await final US election results
Analysts believe that the leading macroeconomic indicators in Canada are not improving fast enough: for example, yesterday, the Minister of Finance Chrystia Freeland said that households could alleviate the burden of high inflation for themselves if they refuse paid subscription to streaming television services, which caused outrage in the expert community. The greatest growth in recent months has been shown by food inflation, which reached a 41-year high of 18.0%, and it is unlikely that it will be possible to solve this problem by reducing the personal spending of households.
On the daily chart of the asset, the trading instrument continues to implement the Head and shoulders reversal pattern.
Resistance levels: 1.36, 1.38 | Support levels: 1.3426, 1.322
USDCAD - Markets await final US election results
Analysts believe that the leading macroeconomic indicators in Canada are not improving fast enough: for example, yesterday, the Minister of Finance Chrystia Freeland said that households could alleviate the burden of high inflation for themselves if they refuse paid subscription to streaming television services, which caused outrage in the expert community. The greatest growth in recent months has been shown by food inflation, which reached a 41-year high of 18.0%, and it is unlikely that it will be possible to solve this problem by reducing the personal spending of households.
On the daily chart of the asset, the trading instrument continues to implement the Head and shoulders reversal pattern.
Resistance levels: 1.36, 1.38 | Support levels: 1.3426, 1.322
S&P 500 - Local corrective trend continues
The American market significantly slowed down the dynamics in anticipation of the results of the Midterm elections to the US Congress, as well as data on inflation. The S&P 500 is currently correcting, trading at 3759.
Based on the interim results of the voting, it is quite likely that different parties will control the Senate and the House of Representatives, which will create a so-called “political impasse”. This may mean that the adoption of new legislative initiatives will be difficult, and, therefore, the likelihood of the final adoption of a bill to raise corporate taxes may be reduced, which is a positive signal for the stock market.
The index quotes continued the local corrective trend, more and more clearly forming the Flag pattern on the daily chart.
Support levels: 3700, 3570 | Resistance levels: 3830, 4000
ADAUSD -The development of the FTX crisis puts pressure on the market
The pressure on the digital asset sector continues to be exerted by the situation around the FTX exchange, which currently cannot provide coverage for client deposits, and its token can repeat the dynamics of the LUNA coin, losing about 90% of its value in a few days. Even yesterday, it seemed to the community members that a way out of the crisis had been found since the world’s largest cryptocurrency platform Binance agreed to buy FTX assets, but then the company’s CEO Changpeng Zhao abandoned these plans, which became the driver of the market’s rapid decline. The exchange said that the problems associated with the misuse of FTX client funds were more serious than expected, so there were no opportunities to help the exchange. FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried has requested an additional 8.0B dollars in funding from investors to enable the withdrawal of user funds. If this amount is not received, then a declaration of bankruptcy will follow. Soon, this situation will negatively affect the entire digital sector and may provoke a serious outflow of investors and further price declines. According to analysts at JPMorgan Chase & Co., the FTX crisis is developing too quickly, and market participants are not fully aware of its danger, and as soon as this happens, a cascading liquidation of open positions may begin.
The trading instrument is trying to win back the lost positions but to resume serious growth, it needs to consolidate above 0.3906 (Murrey [0/8], the middle line of Bollinger Bands), and then the uptrend targets will be 0.4394 (Murrey [1/8], Fibonacci correction 50.0%) and 0.4670 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement). After the consolidation below 0.3085 (annual lows), the decline will continue to 0.2440 (Murrey [2/8] for H4).
Resistance levels: 0.3906, 0.4394, 0.4670 | Support levels: 0.3085, 0.2440
EURUSD Hits the Target
The EURUSD pair succeeded to achieve our waited target at 1.0185 and attempts to breach it, to pave the way to continue the rise and head to visit 1.0285 as a next positive target. The EMA50 continues to support the price from below, to support the continuation of the bullish trend in the upcoming sessions, taking into consideration that failing to surpass 1.0185 will press on the price to rebound bearishly and head to test 1.0 areas before any new attempt to rise.
The expected trading range for today is between 1.0100 support and 1.0285 resistance.
Sentiment boosted in markets after US inflation data
Global financial markets were boosted after US inflation data that showed a slowdown in prices in October. It’s the fourth consecutive monthly slowdown in consumer prices, asserting a move away from record 9.1% inflation in June, as the Fed’s aggressive policy tightening moves finally show their impact. Bets on a 0.50% rate hike by the Federal Reserve in December rose from 67% to 85%, while bets on a 0.75% rate hike tumbled from 33% to 15%.
Inflation Data
US consumer prices rose 7.7% in October y/y, less than the expected 7.9%, and down from 8.2% in the previous reading. Core prices, excluding food and fuel, rose 6.3%, less than the expected 6.5%, and less than 6.6%5 in the previous reading.
Global Markets
The dollar index slumped over 1.5% to 108.75, the lowest since September 13 against a basket of major rivals. Gold prices rose 1.75%, hitting two-month highs at $1,737 an ounce on track for the largest weekly profit since February.
Most European stock rose to two-month highs while Wall Street stock futures rallied as well ahead of the official opening.
GBPUSD Awaits more Rise
The GBPUSD pair provides strong positive trades to achieve our waited target at 1.18, waiting for new rises to achieve additional gains that start by visiting 1.1920 and reach 1.2 barrier, as the price returned to the bullish channel that appears on the chart, which supports the chances of continuing the bullish trend on the intraday and short term basis.
On the other hand, the EMA50 provides good support to the price, to keep our bullish overview conditioned by the price stability above 1.1645. The expected trading range for today is between 1.1720 support and 1.1900 resistance.
EURUSD Technical Analysis
The EURUSD pair resumes its positive trading after testing 1.0300 barrier this morning, to keep the bullish trend scenario active for today, waiting to get positive motive that assists to push the price to achieve our next main target that reaches 1.0515, reminding you that the continuation of the bullish wave requires holding above 1.0285.
The expected trading range for today is between 1.0260 support and 1.0430 resistance.
AUDCAD Settles Above the Moving Average
The AUDCAD pair resumed its correctional bullish attack by breaching 0.8840 barrier recently, to settle above the moving average 55 and notice recording additional gains by reaching 0.8935, while stochastic additional positive momentum allows us to expect providing new bullish trades, to attempt to achieve new gains that might start at 0.9 and 0.9055.
The expected trading range for today is between 0.8880 and 0.9, and the expected trend for today is Bullish.
DAX 40 - Low gas prices catalyze the growth of the German manufacturing sector
As of the end of yesterday’s trading, 1.0 thousand cubic meters of “blue fuel” on the London Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) was traded at a price of 1.245 thousand dollars. The spot price for gas with a next day delivery is at around 0.716 thousand dollars per 1.0 thousand cubic meters, which cannot be compared with the spring peak prices of 3.8 thousand dollars. The main reasons for the decline in quotations are the high filling levels of European gas storage facilities, which are approaching 99%, as well as abnormally warm weather in the EU for the current time of the year.
On the daily chart of the asset, the price is trading above the resistance line of the descending channel, actively rising and reaching the highs of this spring.
Support levels: 13962, 13262 | Resistance levels: 14631, 15541
NZDUSD Technical Analysis
The NZDUSD pair rallies upwards to move away from 0.6100 level and touch our first waited target at 0.6160, waiting for more rise to visit 0.6200 that represents our next positive station, to keep the bullish trend scenario active for today conditioned by the price stability above 0.6100.
The expected trading range for today is between 0.6070 support and 0.6170 resistance, and the expected trend for today is Bullish.
ETHUSD - Murray analysis
Last week, the ETHUSD pair showed a serious decline in the framework of the general market trend after the FTX cryptocurrency exchange initiated voluntary bankruptcy, trying to find a way to return their funds to customers as part of the judicial procedure. The price of the ETH token reached four-month lows around 1071.70, after which it went into correction.
Now the quotes are trying to consolidate above 1250 (Murray [2/8]) with a target at 1375 (Murray [3/8]), 1445 (Fibo retracement 50.0%, the middle line of the Bollinger Bands), 1500 (Murray [4/8]), but the priority is a downward movement, which is confirmed by the downward reversal of the Bollinger Bands and an increase in the MACD histogram in the negative zone. In turn, the upward reversal of the Stochastic does not exclude the development of corrective growth, but its potential is seen to be limited. Thus, a repeated breakdown of the level of 1125 (Murray [1/8]) and a subsequent decline in the trading instrument to the area of 1000 (Murray [0/8]) and 875 (Murray [-1/8]) is likely.
Resistance levels: 1375, 1445, 1500 | Support levels: 1125, 1000, 875
EURUSD Tests the Support Base
The EURUSD pair bounced downwards strongly after approaching our waited target at 1.0515, to test the key support base 1.0285 and keeps its stability above it, as it resumed its positive trading from there to settle around 1.0360 now. Therefore, the bullish trend scenario will remain valid and active for the upcoming period, supported by the EMA50 that carries the price from below, waiting to test 1.0515 mainly, noting that breaking 1.0285 will stop the expected rise and press on the price to turn to decline.
The expected trading range for today is between 1.0285 support and 1.0465 resistance, and the expected trend for today is Bullish.
GBPUSD - In anticipation of British statistics on inflation
According to the report for September, the UK unemployment rate increased to 3.6% from 3.5% earlier, resulting in a loss of 52.0K jobs, more than the forecasted decrease of 25.0K, which, however, was offset by the dynamics of the average level of wages, which, excluding bonuses, rose by 5.7%, which is better than the positive dynamics of 5.5% a month earlier, and taking into account bonuses – by 6.0%, higher than the preliminary estimates of experts at 5.9%. Inflation statistics will be released today, and analysts expect the consumer price index to reach 10.7% from 10.1% last month, continuing global growth.
The trading instrument moves within the local ascending channel on the daily chart, approaching the resistance line.
Resistance levels: 1.199, 1.225 | Support levels: 1.173, 1.136
USDCHF - Switzerland may return to neutral status soon
Also to the correction of the US dollar, the main driver of the downward dynamics of the trading instrument, experts call the readiness of the country’s authorities to return to a full-fledged “neutral status.” The Swiss economy is actively declining after the outbreak of a military conflict in Ukraine and joining the anti-Russian sanctions, which violated more than 200 years of neutrality of the country. Six months later, the energy crisis and rising inflation helped Swiss National Bank officials withdraw from the policy of negative rates, a serious blow to the reputation of the world’s main financial haven. Yesterday, former People’s Party (SVP) chairman Christopher Blocher announced the registration of the Pro Suisse Association initiative, which involves amending the Constitution to consolidate neutrality and prohibit political bodies from making decisions that contradict this principle as joining military or defense alliances. To submit the initiative to a national referendum, it is necessary to enlist the support of at least 100K citizens of the country by the spring of next year.
On the daily chart of the asset, the price has slowed down its active decline and is being corrected near the low at the end of summer.
Resistance levels: 0.9484, 0.96 | Support levels: 0.941, 0.93