EURJPY fluctuates within the bearish track
The EURJPY pair touched 140.75 level on last Friday, to rebound positively towards 42.20 and settles near the moving average 55, these factors won’t affect the bearish track by settling below 142.60 resistance line, to confirm confining trades within the negative track and wait to renew the negative attack to target the first main target at 140.25. On the other hand, breaching the mentioned resistance will confirm regaining the bullish bias by consolidating within the bullish channel again, allowing us to start suggesting the bullish trades and target 143.15 initially.
The expected trading range for today is between 142.60 and 141.1, and the expected trend for today is Bearish.
EURUSD keeps its positive stability
The EURUSD pair ended last Friday above 1.0515 level after the mixed trades that it witnessed in the previous sessions, starting today with new bullish bias to resume the main bullish trend, approaching our first waited target at 1.0600, waiting for more rise to visit 1.0750 as a next main target. Therefore, the bullish trend scenario will remain valid and active for the upcoming period, supported by the EMA50, noting that it is important to hold above 1.0515 to continue the expected rise.
The expected trading range for today is between 1.0500 support and 1.0680 resistance, and the expected trend for today is Bullish.
BTCUSD - The rhetoric of the US Federal Reserve allowed the crypto market to regain its positions
The cryptocurrency market is under the influence of two opposite factors. On the one hand, investors fear the consequences of the bankruptcy of the FTX crypto exchange and are reducing investments in digital assets, as evidenced by the decrease in the number of “whales,” which, according to the Glassnode platform, reached a two-year low at 1,662K. On the other hand, the growth of cryptocurrencies can be supported by monetary factors: the slowdown in monetary policy tightening announced last week by US Federal Reserve officials at the December meeting led to the weakening of the US currency against alternative assets, including digital ones. Several analysts expect it will become a driver for the start of the traditional pre-Christmas Santa rally, during which the positions of market leaders will be significantly restored.
If the current growth turns out to be short-term, BTC quotes will return to decline with a long-term target of 10000 – 7000.
The trading instrument is near the resistance zone 17500 – 17830 (Murrey level [6/8], Fibonacci correction 23.6%), the breakdown of which will give the prospect of further growth to 19100 (Fibonacci correction 38.2%), 20000 (Murrey level [8 /8], Fibonacci retracement 50.0%). If the middle line of Bollinger bands is broken down to the area of 16600.00, the decline may resume to 15000 (Murrey level [4/8]) and 13750 (Murrey level [3/8]).
Resistance levels: 17830, 19100, 20000 | Support levels: 16600, 15000, 13750
GBPUSD Technical Analysis
The GBPUSD pair shows some bearish bias now to move below 1.2300, to achieve some temporary bearish correction, waiting to get positive motive that assists to push the price to resume the expected bullish trend for today, which depends on the price stability above 1.2130, reminding you that our next main target reaches 1.2465.
The expected trading range for today is between 1.22 support and 1.24 resistance, and the expected trend for today is Bullish.
NI 225 - bond market responds to Japan’s supplemental budget
Quotes of the trading instrument lose value amid the adoption by the House of Councilors of the Japanese parliament of a bill to allocate 29.9 trillion yen to mitigate the negative impact of record inflation on the national economy, which will be attracted through the issuance of government bonds and securities. The funds will be used to compensate for the increase in the cost of electricity and fuel (up to 7.82 trillion yen), as well as to combat the consequences of the coronavirus and support the New Capitalism program, which was announced by Prime Minister Fumio Kishida.
On the daily chart of the asset, the price remains within the local ascending corridor, heading towards the support line, and the technical indicators holding a buy signal are ready for a reversal and a new sell signal.
Support levels: 27400, 26500 | Resistance levels: 28100, 28640
USDCAD Achieves Strong Gains
USDCAD pair traded with strong positivity yesterday to breach 1.3500 and settles near 1.3600 barrier, to head towards achieving more expected gains in the upcoming sessions, on its ways to visit 1.3680 as a next main target. The EMA50 supports the expected rise, which will remain valid as long as 1.3500 level remains intact.
The expected trading range for today is between 1.3500 support and 1.3670 resistance, and the expected trend for today is Bullish.
Euro hits fresh six-month highs against dollar
Euro rose in European trade for the fourth straight session against dollar, hitting fresh six-month highs as concerns about a widening policy gap between the US and Europe fade. Dollar extended its decline after Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s recent statements about slowing down the pace of rate hikes starting from December. EURUSD rose over 0.4% to 1.0584, the highest since June , after closing up 0.15% on Friday, the third profit in a row as risk appetite dominated markets.
European Rates
The financial markets are now expecting the European Central Bank to increase rates by 75 basis points in December instead of 50. There are strong recent incentives for the ECB to do such move according to many analysts, while the Federal Reserve is only expected to hike rates by 50 basis points this month.
NZDUSD - The American Currency Received a Growth Impetus
Thus, the report of Statistics New Zealand (Stats.nz) recorded a smooth recovery of the national real estate market: Q3 construction activity in the residential sector increased by 3.1%, and non-residential – by 4.9%, as a result of which the overall indicator increased by 3.8%. Despite the positive dynamics, inflation continues to negatively affect the cost of building maintenance: Q3 cost of maintaining residential buildings increased by 3.0%, and non-residential – by 1.5%.
On the daily chart, the trading instrument moves above the resistance line of the downward channel, approaching it from above for reverse testing, and the technical indicators maintain a stable buy signal, ignoring a possible local correction.
Resistance levels: 0.64, 0.656 | Support levels: 0.6265, 0.61
XAGUSD - Silver Institute predicts metal supply shortage
The increasing gap between supply and demand in the market can also support the position of the asset: back in early October, the Silver Institute predicted that in 2022 the demand for the precious metal would increase by at least 5.0% and reach 1.11B ounces with a relatively constant supply, which will amount to 1.09B ounces, provoking an increase in prices. At the end of last week, experts revised their preliminary estimates of demand, raising it sharply by 16.0% to 1.21B ounces, which means an even greater shortage of supply, which, according to forecasts by the statistics portal Metals Focus, could reach 194.0 by the end of the year. Confirming the trend, the London Bullion Market Association reported a drop in silver stocks over the past year by a record 27.2%.
On the daily chart of the asset, the trading instrument continues the global correction, heading above the resistance line of the wide rising channel, and the technical indicators, despite the slowdown, keep a stable buy signal.
Resistance levels: 23.1, 24.4 | Support levels: 21.6, 19.8
Nasdaq 100 - correction before the meeting of the US Fed
US stock indicators are turning to the downside, and the trend of recent days signals a significant increase in market uncertainty. Next week, on December 14, the last meeting of the US Federal Reserve of the year will take place and, given the recent statements by officials of the regional Federal Reserve Banks (FRB), the regulator is going to slow down the pace of interest rate adjustment. However, the latest data on the labor market confirms the strengthening of the negative dynamics of indicators, and as the Unemployment Rate in the country rises, this may provoke the US financial authorities to continue their “hawkish” policy, which would be a serious blow to the stock market, which is already under pressure.
On the daily chart of the asset, the index quotes continue to trade above the local sideways channel, and the technical indicators maintain a steady buy signal.
Support levels: 11500, 10700 | Resistance levels: 12100, 12800
ETHUSD - Murrey analysis
The key “bearish” range is the support zone of 1250 – 1210 (Murrey [2/8], the middle line of Bollinger bands), the breakdown of which will give the prospect of a decline to 1125 (Murrey [1/8]) and 1000 (Murrey [0/8]). Otherwise, growth will resume towards the central level of Murrey’s trading range and the upper limit of the long-term downward channel around 1500 ([4/8]).
Technical indicators do not give a single signal, illustrating the current uncertainty in the market. Given the persistence of the long-term downward trend, the resumption of negative dynamics soon seems more likely.
Resistance levels: 1375, 1500, 1625 | Support levels: 1210, 1125, 1000
Bitcoin is Trying to Avoid Losing Momentum
Bitcoin is trying to hold near $17,000 despite deteriorating sentiment on stock market indices. Analyst firm Glassnode reported that the major cryptocurrency has reached several important on-chain levels.
The average of realized losses was at new historical peaks at 0.60, indicating a progressive, unprecedented sell-off in the cryptocurrency market. Historically, these levels have proven to be opportunities for accumulation and heralded an impending rally by cryptocurrency bulls. The level of losses realized by the market since 2011 has become 14 times the level of realized gains. We also see a preserved ‘4-year cyclicality’ in relation to the previous ‘cryptocurrency winters’ of 2011, 2015 and 2018.
The chart shows two on-chain metrics to better represent the network’s cost basis, and which have been breached in previous bear markets. Balanced price (Balanced price, blue band) is an experimental attempt to capture the ‘fair’ valuation of Bitcoin by measuring the difference between the value investors paid for it and the value of liquidated Bitcoins (Transferred price). The delta price (Delta price, purple band) is the difference between Bitcoin’s realized capital and capitalization divided by circulating supply; the moving average refers to Bitcoin’s total lifetime. In none of the previous besses did the price of Bitcoin fall below the ‘Delta Price’ (purple). Only for about 136 of the last 4518 BTC days was there a period where we could see the price ‘touching’ the balanced price. Currently, we see that both lines are between $15,500 and $12,000. Bitcoin’s price briefly found itself near the balanced price after the collapse of FTX, but the bulls quickly reacted by taking the stock up. Throughout BTC’s history, the balanced price has proven to be the ultimate support level for Bitcoin, below which declines have never occurred.
Bitcoin chart, M30 interval. The major cryptocurrency managed to hold the $17,000 level despite yesterday’s dynamic sell-off, during which supply quickly pushed the bulls on the defensive and prevented it from reaching the $17,500 level. We also see that bitcoin continues to correlate with the NASDAQ index (yellow chart). Yesterday’s declines on the indexes translated into sentiment in the cryptocurrency industry. As a result, Bitcoin has again slipped below the 200-session average (red line), and the next closest support is the levels at $16,800, where the 38.2 Fibonacci abolition of the upward wave that began in late November is located.
Crude oil sell-off intensifies
Oil prices continue to move sharply lower on Tuesday reaching a level not seen since the beginning of the year as rising demand concerns overshadowed the impact of EU price cap on Russian oil. Weak data from China’s service sector, weakening manufacturing activity in the EU and US, expectations of further rate increases from major central banks and rebounding dollar put pressure on oil prices. A report that Russia was considering a oil-price floor provided only a brief respite for bulls as price resumed downward move in late afternoon. One needs to remember that if the price will drop below $70.0 per barrel, then this may force OPEC reaction.
Oil price fell below $80 a barrel, its lowest level this year. Looking at the D1 timeframe, one can notice a dynamic break below the support at 82.40, which could lead to a further sell-off. The next key support is located at $76.50.
EURUSD crawls downwards
The EURUSD pair trades with calm negativity to move away from 1.0515 level, to hint continuing the decline on the intraday basis, targeting visiting 1.0425 followed by 1.0285 after breaking the previous level. Therefore, the bearish bias will be suggested for today, noting that failing to break 1.0425 will lead the price to build bullish wave and attempt to resume the correctional bullish trend again.
The expected trading range for today is between 1.0360 support and 1.0520 resistance, and the expected trend for today is Bearish.
Crude oil sell-off intensifies
Oil prices continue to move sharply lower on Tuesday reaching a level not seen since the beginning of the year as rising demand concerns overshadowed the impact of EU price cap on Russian oil. Weak data from China’s service sector, weakening manufacturing activity in the EU and US, expectations of further rate increases from major central banks and rebounding dollar put pressure on oil prices. A report that Russia was considering a oil-price floor provided only a brief respite for bulls as price resumed downward move in late afternoon. One needs to remember that if the price will drop below $70.0 per barrel, then this may force OPEC reaction.
Oil price fell below $80 a barrel, its lowest level this year. Looking at the D1 timeframe, one can notice a dynamic break below the support at 82.40, which could lead to a further sell-off. The next key support is located at $76.50.
XRPUSD - A decline in token quotes – in the future
Last week, the XRPUSD pair attempted to grow, rising to the upper limit of the long-term ascending channel 0.4974, but then began to decline within the framework of the general market trend.
Pressure on XRP, as well as on other leading cryptocurrencies, continues to be exerted by the negative consequences of the bankruptcy of the FTX exchange, which undermined investor confidence in digital assets and provoked an outflow of capital from the sector. In addition, the situation is aggravated by monetary factors. If last week market participants expected a slowdown in the pace of interest rate hikes by the US Fed, then after the publication of strong November labor market data, these hopes were replaced by fears of officials abandoning their plans. Moreover, the stability of the economy to the measures already taken to tighten monetary policy may push the regulator to a more serious adjustment of the value above the currently expected peak of 5.0%. In general, the position of the US currency is strengthening in relation to competitors.
It should also be noted that at the end of last week, Ripple and the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) submitted to the court the latest clarifications on the case of recognizing XRP as a security. From the point of view of the company’s lawyers, the regulator could not prove that the sale of the token from 2013 to 2020 was an offer of an “investment contract”, therefore it cannot be considered a security. Now market participants will expect a final decision on the case, which is possible by the end of March next year and will have a serious impact on the entire cryptocurrency sector.
Technically, the price consolidated below the middle line of the Bollinger Bands in the area of 0.3855, which gives the prospect of further decline to the levels of 0.3418 (Murray level [-1/8]), 0.2930 (Murray level [-2/8]). If the price consolidates above the level of 0.3906 (Murray level [0/8]), quotes will be able to leave the descending channel and resume growth in the area of 0.4350 (Murray level [1/8], Fibo retracement 23.6%) and 0.4883 (Murray level [2/8]).
Resistance levels: 0.3906, 0.4350, 0.4883 | Support levels: 0.3418, 0.2930
GBPUSD Bounces off local Support
In recent days GBPUSD moved further away from six-month high of $1.2355 reached earlier this month as recession fears sparked demand for safe haven assets including US dollar. Also the outlook for the sterling remains clouded by fears of a domestic recession. BOE Governor Andrew Bailey has been warning markets that tightening expectations is overdone with the UK toppling into a two-year recession. Nevertheless today we can observe some dollar weakness which enables the GBPUSD pair to bounce off the local support at 1.2150. Nevertheless, the main sentiment remains bearish, therefore a move towards 1.20 level or even key support 1.1865 cannot be ruled out.
USDIDX struggles to break above key resistance at 105.30 which is marked with previous price reactions, 200 SMA (red line) and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the upward wave launched in May 2021.
EURUSD - The EU economy shows slight growth
Thus, according to November data, the growth of Q3 gross domestic product (GDP) amounted to 0.3%, which exceeded analysts’ expectations of 0.2%, and the annual rate slowed to 2.3% from 4.2% earlier, according to preliminary estimates at 2.1%, helped by an increase in employment by 0.3% from an estimated 0.2%. Thus, employment in the region increases by 1.8% YoY and leads to an increase in the overall level of the indicator to 164.499K from 164.475K a quarter earlier.
On the daily chart, the trading instrument continues its corrective growth and is confidently holding above the resistance line of the local ascending corridor, and the technical indicators maintain a stable upward signal.
Resistance levels: 1.0590, 1.0780 | Support levels: 1.0440, 1.0240
GBPUSD needs positive momentum
The GBPUSD pair shows some slight bearish bias now to move around 1.2200 level, affected by stochastic negativity, while the EMA50 continues to support the price from below, to keep the chances valid to continue the expected bullish trend on the intraday and short term basis, which its next target located at 1.2345. Note that breaking 1.2130 will stop the expected rise and press on the price to start bearish correction that its targets begin by visiting 1.1925 areas.
The expected trading range for today is between 1.2120 support and 1.2290 resistance, and the expected trend for today is Bullish.
Chart of the day - US100
US indices had another downbeat session in a row yesterday but the scale of declines was smaller than in previous two days when all major Wall Street benchmarks dropped more than 1%. Tech shares have once again lagged the most with Nasdaq index dropping 0.51% and Nasdaq-100 (US100) moving 0.45% lower.
Taking a look at the US100 chart at D1 interval, we can see that while the index saw some weakness in recent days and dropped 5% off December 1st peak, bearish momentum eased after prier reached support zone ranging above 11,500 pts handle. Downward move was halted at the 50-session moving average (green line) yesterday and today’s retest of the aforementioned moving average also turned out to be a failure. Lower wicks of today’s and yesterday’s daily candlestick suggest that there is a strong bull camp in the 11,500 pts area and it is also a good place for a rebound from a technical point of few. However, one cannot rule out that we will have to wait until next week’s Fed decision for the index to see a bigger move in either direction. In case bears regain control and push the index below the 11,500 pts price zone, the next support to watch can be found at the lower limit of the Overbalance structure (11,075 pts). On the other hand, should the index rebound from current levels, the 12,100 pts resistance zone, marked with recent local highs, will be a level to watch.