BTCUSD - the decision of the US Federal Reserve will determine the dynamics of “digital gold”
Last week, the BTCUSD pair fell to the 16700 area but then won back the losses and rose to 17200, where it has been trading over the past few sessions.
The cryptocurrency market remains uncertain: the bankruptcy of the FTX exchange is putting pressure on it, but monetary factors prevent a significant decrease in quotes. The liquidation of several large digital projects at once in six months caused serious damage to the sector, expressed in the loss of confidence in it and a decrease in investment. Thus, according to a survey of American citizens conducted by the CNBC channel, by the end of the year, the number of respondents who had a positive attitude towards digital assets adjusted to 8.0% from 19.0%, and after the Terraform and FTX bankruptcies, the number of respondents who were strongly negative about cryptocurrencies, rose from 25.0% to 43.0%. The situation with FTX did not go unnoticed by the authorities, which creates the possibility of tightening control over the activities of such sites, restraining the activity of its participants. State regulators are already checking messages for unfair advertising, and the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has required national businesses to publicly disclose the ownership of digital assets and report transactions with cryptocurrency market participants.
However, the negative fundamentals did not contribute to a sharp downward correction, as investors hope that the “hawkish” rhetoric of the US Fed will soften in the face of an emerging slowdown in price growth, which may cause the dollar to weaken against its main competitors. This week, analysts expect two major events – the publication of November inflation data and a meeting of the US regulator: if the consumer price index declines again, a decrease in interest rate growth to 50 basis points will become inevitable, and in the future, a short-term break in tightening of the monetary policy will become possible.
The trading instrument is near the resistance zone 17500 – 17830 (Murrey [6/8], Fibonacci correction 23.6%), the breakout of which will give the prospect of further growth to 19100 (Fibonacci correction 38.2%), 20000 (Murrey [8/8], Fibonacci retracement 50.0%). After the breakdown of the middle line of Bollinger bands around 16800, the decline may resume to 15700 (the area of November lows), 15000 (Murrey [4/8]), and 13750 (Murrey [3/8]).
Technical indicators signal a high probability of correction: Bollinger Bands and Stochastic are reversing upwards, and MACD is decreasing in the negative zone.
Resistance levels: 17830, 19100, 20000 | Support levels: 16800, 15700, 15000, 13750
