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Tesday, January 9thu

The EUR/USD pair remains offered for the third consecutive session, extending its retreat from the area of its multi-year tops, located near the level of 1.2090. Recent weakness of the major is mainly explained by ongoing post-New Year correction of the US dollar. Moreover, even yesterday’s cautious comments regarding less aggressive rate hikes by Fed members failed to stop recovery of the greenback. Looking ahead, today the EU data calendar will bring only secondary data reports, which most likely won’t attract much of investors’ attention, while the US will publish JOLTs job openings, thus bringing fresh trading opportunities during the NA session.

The GBP/USD pair failed to keep its yesterday’s positive trend and retreated to the region of 1.3550. Seems that Brexit jitters are still gripping the market, thus weighing the pound across the board. Recently the UK PM T.May made an announcement on the appointment of another Brexit minister, whose responsibilities will include regular updates on preparations for leaving the EU without a trade deal. Moreover, ongoing optimism around the US dollar continues to dominate the market, thereby also contributing to pair’s recent retreat. However, further decline of the pair looks limited, as increased demand for higher-yielding assets is still persisting on the market, thereby providing some support to the risky pound. On the data front, today the UK data calendar will remain absolutely silent, leaving the pair at the mercy of broad market trend, while the US will publish data from the labor market, which will bring some trading opportunities later ahead.

The JPY/USD pair witnessed pretty volatile trades during the Asian session, making the yen the most profitable asset of this Tuesday. Earlier today, the pair came under strong selling pressure and dropped to the area of 112.50 on news that the BoJ reduces its daily JGBs purchases that appeared highly supportive to the Japanese currency. However, ongoing post-New Year correction of the US dollar helped the pair to recover some pips and meet the European morning near the level of 112.70. Today, all traders’ attention will remain glued to another report from the US labor market, while the US dollar dynamics and increased risk appetite will continue to navigate the pair on Tuesday.

The AUD/USD pair regained its positive tone this Tuesday, having recovered some positions after yesterday’s slide from its multi-month highs, marked on the level of 0.7875. Renewed optimism around the pair is mainly attributed to ongoing demand for higher-yielding assets, which exerts support to the Australian currency. Adding to this, green numbers from the Australian housing market, published in Asia, also contribute to pair’s upside correction this Tuesday. On the data front, the US will publish JOLTS job openings data, which will help the pair to form its trajectory in the NA session, but until then the US dollar dynamics will remain the key navigator for the major.

Major events of the day:
US JOLTs Job Openings – 17.00 (GMT +2)

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1894 R. 1.2088
USDJPY S. 112.61 R. 113.61
GBPUSD S. 1.3495 R. 1.3621
USDCHF S. 0.9718 R. 0.9810
AUDUSD S. 0.7801 R. 0.7891
NZDUSD S. 0.7137 R. 0.7201
USDCAD S. 1.2343 R. 1.2487

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Thursday, January 11th

The EUR/USD pair remains defensive this Thursday, having lost the most part of its recent gains. Yesterday the major currency pair received strong bullish impetus, braking through the resistance level of 1.2000, in wake of sharp drop of the US dollar across the market, triggered by Chinese headlines. The Chinese officials stated that they are considering to slow purchases of the US Treasuries. However, the greenback managed to regain its positive tone on the back of fresh market talks that China’s reduction of the US Treasuries purchases could be interpreted incorrectly. Adding to this, yesterday’s hawkish comments of Fed members, indicating another three rate hikes this year, provide extra support to the greenback today. Now all traders’ attention shifts towards ECB minutes, which may contain some fresh information regarding regulator’s further projections regarding its monetary policy. Also, the US will publish today the PPI report and several second-tier data, which will also help the pair to form its further trajectory.

The GBP/USD pair remains better offered at the second half of this week, continuing to drift to the negative territory for the third day in a row. Seems that Brexit fears continue to spook the market that is the key reason of the latest weakness of the pound. Ongoing debates between the EU and UK on trade deal are still failing to show any results, which potentially threatens the UK industrial sector. Moreover, ongoing recovery of the US dollar after its yesterday’s retreat, provoked by Chinese talks, also collaborates with recent retreat of the pair. Looking ahead, today the UK data calendar won’t bring us anything noteworthy, while the US will publish the PPI report, which will be able to spark some volatility during the NA session.

The AUD/USD pair stalled its previous bullish run and now is consolidating its positions near the level of 0.7870. Earlier today, the pair received notable bullish impetus, having refreshed its 3-month tops at 0.7890 spot, on the back of encouraging Australian retail sales numbers, which boosted demand for the Aussie across the market. However, further growth of the pair looks unlikely, as correction of the US dollar after its yesterday’s brief drawdown exerts negative influence on AUD/USD. On the data front, today all investors’ attention will remain focused on the US PPI report, while broad US dollar dynamics will continue to navigate the pair this Thursday.

Bitcoin continues to lose points this week. The BTC/USD pair extends its downside trend for the fourth consecutive day on the back of ongoing oppression of cryptocurrencies. This time the move came from South Korea, were the government intends to outlaw brokerage activities in the digital currency market. Recall, earlier this week Chinese government already made a statement that it is considering potential actions to ban the mining of cryptocurrencies. All these actions by local governments are mainly explained by anti-money laundering measures, while at the same time pointing to attempts by financial institutions to implement regulations in relation to cryptocurrency trades. This morning the BTC/USD pair was trading on the level of 13,257.00, continuing to lose ground along with the entire cryptocurrency market.

Major events of the day:
ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting – 14.30 (GMT +2)
US PPI – 15.30 (GMT +2)

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1871 R. 1.2061
USDJPY S. 110.28 R. 113.34
GBPUSD S. 1.3438 R. 1.3601
USDCHF S. 0.9700 R. 0.9885
AUDUSD S. 0.7777 R. 0.7900
NZDUSD S. 0.7097 R. 0.7280
USDCAD S. 1.2360 R. 1.2679

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Monday, January 15th

The EUR/USD pair is remaining within striking distance of its multiyear highs, marked earlier this morning at 1.2240 spot, as weakness of the US dollar is still dominating the market. The offered tone of the US dollar could be explained by recent market trend, based on speculations regarding potential convergence of monetary policies of the Fed and major central banks. Adding to this, positive news from the German political field, saying that German party leaders have finally reached a breakthrough on the coalition talks, and speculations on recent hawkish ECB minutes also contribute to pair’s bullish trend this Monday. However, it is expected that the pair won’t show any sharp moves today, as the US market will remain closed in wake of celebration of Martin Luther King, Jr. Day, while the EU data calendar remains absolutely empty this Monday, leaving the pair at the mercy of widespread market sentiments.

The GBP/USD pair follows broad market trend and extends it recent massive rally, remaining more than 2 cents higher Friday’s lows. Pair’s recent upsurge could be explained by weakness of the US dollar against its main competitors, which allowed the pair to refresh its tops at 1.3768 level, last seen in the day of Brexit referendum ( 23 June 2016). Adding to this, positive news headlines regarding Brexit, which says that Dutch and Spanish finance ministers are now supporting soft Brexit, triggered massive demand for the UK currency on Friday and are still supporting the pair. Today we have absolutely empty data calendar, so broad market mood will remain the sole driving factor for the pair at the start of this week.

The AUD/USD pair once again became a top gainer of the session, extending its northward march for the fourth session in a row, while refreshing its 4-month highs at 0.7960 level, as multiple bullish factors support the pair at the start of this week. First of all, ongoing weakness of the US dollar is still dominating the market, becoming the key reason of pair’s recent upside trend. Moreover, increased demand for risky assets also exerts support to higher-yielding Aussie this Monday. Meanwhile, the US market will remain closed today in observance of Martin Luther King Jr. Day, therefore US bulls will remain unable to support the greenback. Since the US market will remain closed, the economic calendar won’t bring us anything noteworthy, and the US dollar price dynamics will continue to navigate the pair this Monday.

The USD/JPY pair remains broadly offered, wobbling in the vicinity of its 4-month lows, marked at 110.58 in Asia. It seems that the weakness of the US dollar is still gripping the market, forcing the pair to retreat for the sixth day in a row, while the yen pay no attention to increased interest to risky assets. Moreover, Friday’s positive US inflation numbers also failed to provide the greenback with enough support to stop its downside trend. On the data front, today nothing important is scheduled in data calendar, while the US market will remain closed due to Martin Luther King Jr. Day celebration, so dynamics of the US dollar will continue to drive the pair during this trading session.

Major events of the day:
US - Martin Luther King, Jr. Day

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1961 R. 1.2337
USDJPY S. 110.42 R. 111.98
GBPUSD S. 1.3452 R. 1.3880
USDCHF S. 0.9595 R. 0.9807
AUDUSD S. 0.7814 R. 0.7972
NZDUSD S. 0.7189 R. 0.7303
USDCAD S. 1.2383 R. 1.2593

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Thursday, January 18th

The EUR/USD pair extends its rebound from weekly lows, marked earlier this session at 1.2165 spot, and has climbed above the level of 1.22. Yesterday the pair again refreshed its 3-year highs on the level of 1.2323, however, having failed to keep its positive tone and dropped for more than a cent in wake of attempts of the US dollar to recover its positions across the market. Moreover, neutral EU inflation data, seen yesterday, also failed to cheer up European bulls. On the other hand, the pair managed to regain its mildly bullish tone as ongoing speculations regarding convergence between monetary policies of the Fed and other major central banks are still weighing the greenback. On the data front, today the European economic calendar won’t offer investors anything noteworthy, while the US will release a slew of important reports during the NA session.

The USD/CAD pair remains directionless this Thursday, having recovered after yesterday’s volatile session. On Thursday, the pair received strong bearish impetus, having refreshed its 2-week lows at 1.2365 spot, following the outcome of BoC meeting. As it was widely expected, the regulator increased its interest rate by 25 bpts to the level of 1.25%. However, the pair failed to keep its bearish trend, as less hawkish comments of the BoC Governor S.Poloz during the accompanying press conference weighed the loonie somewhat. The head of the CB stated that additional rate hikes would be implemented, if required, but for now the Bank would keep accommodative policy, as further actions of the regulator are fully data-dependent. Moreover, subdued dynamics of oil prices and continuing attempts of the US dollar to recover its positions also provide support to the pair this Thursday. Looking ahead, today we have pretty busy session, as the economic calendar will bring us a slew of important data releases from both neighboring economies during the NA session.

The AUD/USD pair remains positive this Thursday, moving closer to its 4-month highs, marked at 0.8023 a day before. Seems that Australian bulls remained unimpressed by higher-than-expected Australia’s employment change numbers, showing minor reaction on the important numbers. Moreover, Chinese GDP and industrial production reports, seen this morning, also failed to accelerate pair’s upside trend. The main reason of pair’s subdued dynamics remain ongoing tries of the US dollar to correct higher against its major rivals. On the data front, today investors’ attention will remain focused on the data from the US housing market and Philly Fed manufacturing index, which will be released during the NA session, while the US dollar price dynamics will remain the key navigator for the pair this Thursday.

Bitcoin took a breather today after yesterday’s sharp downside rally. The digital currency has lost nearly 50% of value from its highest price, marked in the region of $20000 at the end of the last year. Yesterday the BTC/USD pair refreshed its 2-month lows at 9211.10 spot on the back of ongoing oppressions of cryptocurrencies from Asian authorities. According to the latest news headlines, Chinese government is planning to tighten measures aimed at limiting the mining of cryptocurrencies on its territory, while S.Korea is considering a ban of trading cryptocurrencies. However, seems that Bitcoin managed to regain its positive mood along with the market of virtual currencies that could be explained by technical correction. By the moment of writing, the BTC/USD pair was trading at 10,560.00, while the market capitalization of the world’s most known cryptocurrency dropped to 191 billion US dollars, according to data available at coinmarketcap.com.

Major events of the day:
US Building Permits – 15.30 (GMT +2)
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index – 15.30 (GMT +2)
Canada ADP Nonfarm Employment Change – 15.30 (GMT +2)
US Crude Oil Inventories – 18.00 (GMT +2)

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.2081 R. 1.2375
USDJPY S. 109.79 R. 112.09
GBPUSD S. 1.3655 R. 1.4027
USDCHF S. 0.9540 R. 0.9714
AUDUSD S. 0.7895 R. 0.8059
NZDUSD S. 0.7182 R. 0.7376
USDCAD S. 1.2262 R. 1.2620

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Friday, January 19th

The EUR/USD pair extends its rebound from weekly lows, marked at 1.2165 spot a day before, on the back of renewed sell-off of the greenback. Recent weakness of the US dollar is mainly explained by new-fashioned market trend, caused by speculations that the Federal Reserve no longer the only central bank, which intends to raise its interest rate. However, further growth of the pair looks capped, as investors start gradually to shift their attention to the ECB interest rate decision, which is scheduled for next week. Expected that the regulator will keep its rate unchanged, while any dovish comments from the ECB President M.Draghi will notably weight on the common currency. Looking ahead, today we will have another quiet session, as both economic calendars won’t bring us anything noteworthy, so broad market trend will remain the key determinant for the pair at the end of this week.

The GBP/USD pair continues to move northward, trying to regain the region of its post-Brexit vote highs. The latest upside trend of the pair is mainly attributed to the renewed weakness of the US dollar versus its major rivals after several unsuccessful attempts to correct its positions, seen earlier this week. Adding to this, positive comments of the UK PM T.May regarding Brexit issue also contribute to the latest bullish trend of the pair. Mrs. May stressed during a brief press conference with French President Emmanuel Macron that Brexit wouldn’t affect close relations between two countries. Now all traders’ attention shifts towards UK retail sales numbers, however, it will be the only important release for today, so US dollar price dynamics will continue to navigate the pair this Friday.

The dollar/yen pair keeps its offered tone for the second day in a row, following broad market trend. Seems that US bulls again lost the control over the market, allowing most major currencies to benefit from the weakness of the greenback, and the yen is no exception. Adding to this, slightly increased demand for safety provides support to the yen, thus exerting extra pressure on the pair. In the day ahead, the economic calendar won’t offer investors anything important at the last day of this trading week, so the US dollar price dynamics will remain a sole driving factor for the pair during this trading session.

The AUD/USD pair remains the top gainer of this trading session, re-entering the area of its 4-month highs, marked at 0.8023 spot earlier this week. The main reason of pair’s latest upside rally remains renewed weakness of the US dollar, which is dominating the market at the final working day of this week. However, further growth of the pair looks limited on the back of subdued dynamics on the commodity market, especially of oil prices, which exerts some negative pressure on the resource-linked Aussie. On the data front, today the US economic calendar will remain silent, leaving the pair at the mercy of greenback price dynamics during this session.

Major events of the day:
UK Retail Sales – 11.30 (GMT +2)

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.2122 R. 1.2322
USDJPY S. 110.29 R. 111.89
GBPUSD S. 1.3759 R. 1.3979
USDCHF S. 0.9518 R. 0.9700
AUDUSD S. 0.7916 R. 0.8048
NZDUSD S. 0.7213 R. 0.7363
USDCAD S. 1.2365 R. 1.2511

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Monday, January 22nd

The EUR/USD pair witnessed a bullish opening gap, however, failing to extend its upside trend, on the back of attempts of the US dollar to correct higher across the market. Today returned bid tone around the greenback remains the key theme of the market, which is forcing major currencies to step lower against USD. Moreover, ongoing political drama in Germany, where heads of the key parties are still struggling to from a ruling coalition, also weighs on the common currency lately. Adding to this, further sharp moves of the pair remain capped, as investors gradually shift their attention to one of the key events of this week – ECB interest rate decision, which is scheduled for this Thursday. The key issue for speculations across the market remains whether the ECB will provide any fresh information about its QE program. Looking ahead, nothing interesting is scheduled in economic calendar for this Monday, so further US dollar price moves will determine pair’s direction during this trading session.

The GBP/USD pair remains softer at the first trading day of the week on the back of several bearish factors, which are weighing the pair. Today US bulls performed another attempt to re-take control over the market, forcing major currencies to step lower against the greenback, and the pound is no exception. Moreover, Friday’s negative UK retail sales numbers are still weighing GBP, also limiting pair’s further upside. On the data front, today both economic calendars won’t bring us anything relevant, so further USD price actions will remain the key driving factor for the pair during this trading session.

The USD/JPY pair started this week on a positive note, moving closer to the level of 111.00. The latest bullish move of the pair is mainly attributed to another attempt of the US dollar to correct positions against its major rivals. However, further session is expected to be pretty quiet, as the US economic calendar won’t bring us anything noteworthy. Adding to this, investors are starting to shift their attention to the upcoming BoJ meeting, which will take place during the next Asian session. It is expected that the regulator will keep its interest rate unchanged, while any comments about Bank’s actions regarding QE program and further leadership of the BoJ (as it may become the last quarterly ‘outlook’ meeting for Governor Haruhiko Kuroda) will help the pair to form its further trajectory. Today in absence of any relevant data releases, the US dollar price dynamics will remain the sole driving factor for the pair.

Bitcoin is still struggling to find direction at the start of the week. Over the weekend, the BTC/USD pair failed its attempt to break through the level of 13,000 and retreated below the mark of 12,000. Recent downside move of the pair is mostly explained by fresh news headlines that authorities of Asian countries are trying to regulate cryptocurrencies. This time the newsmaker was Taiwan, where the government is considering whether to include trading cryptocurrencies in anti-money laundering program. Recall, recently it became known that Chinese government is planning to tighten measures aimed at limiting the mining of cryptocurrencies, while S.Korea is considering a ban of trading cryptocurrencies. At the start of this week, the price for the world’s most known cryptocurrency was 11,540.00 USD, and its market capitalization was 196 billion US dollars, according to data available at coinmarketcap.com.

Major events of the day:
None

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.2160 R. 1.2322
USDJPY S. 110.16 R. 111.44
GBPUSD S. 1.3771 R. 1.3985
USDCHF S. 0.9500 R. 0.9704
AUDUSD S. 0.7941 R. 0.8059
NZDUSD S. 0.7236 R. 0.7342
USDCAD S. 1.2357 R. 1.2575

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Wednesday, January 24th

The EUR/USD pair shows positive dynamics on Wednesday, having refreshed its multiyear highs at 1.2335 this morning, as US bears the market. The latest weakness of the US dollar is mainly attributed to recent news headlines, saying that the US imposed sanctions on Chinese solar panels and washing machines, while blaming Chine of artificially low-priced export of the technology. Adding to this, ongoing market trend, caused by speculations about convergence between policies of the Fed and major CBs, has additionally gathered pace in wake of upcoming the ECB meeting that in turn is another negative factor for the greenback. Investors are hoping that the EU regulator will provide fresh information about Bank’s further guidance, which was mentioned in the last ECB protocols. And finally, yesterday’s positive EU and German ZEW surveys also offered some support to the common currency, thus accelerating pair’s upside trend. Today all traders’ attention will remain focused on the data from the US housing market, while expected that the weakness of the US dollar will continue to dominate the market during this trading session.

The GBP/USD pair follows broad market trend and once again refreshed its post-Brexit referendum highs in the region of 1.4050 this morning. The renewed upside trend of the pair is mainly explained by broad weakness of the US dollar, sparked by concerns of a breakdown in trade relations between the US and China. Moreover, it seems that ongoing market trend, caused by convergence between policies of the Fed and other major central banks, still remains in play, additionally weighing the US currency against its major rivals. Today we have pretty busy session ahead, as both economies have prepared important data releases, however, expected that US dollar dynamics will continue to dominate the market this Wednesday.

The JPY/USD pair remains under bearish control today, having broken through its key support level of 110.00, despite yesterday’s dovish comments of BoJ Governor H.Kuroda, made during the press conference after the Bank’s meeting. Yesterday the pair came under intense selling pressure following trade action by the US against China, increasing tariffs on imported washing machines and solar panels. This news triggered sharp sell-off of the US dollar across the board, and as a result allowed the pair to refresh its 4-month lows below its psychological level. Today we have important data from the US housing market on the agenda, however, expected that US dollar price dynamics will continue determine pair’s further direction in the middle of this week.

The AUD/USD pair keeps its bid tone at the equator of the week, having returned to the region of its 4-highs, located above the level of 0.8000. The key reason of pair’s recent upside trend remains renewed weakness of the US dollar, caused by increased tension in China-US trade relations. Moreover, sharp drawdown of the US dollar across the market caused breakout of important levels in several majors, such as EUR/USD and USD/JPY, that has additionally intensified sell-off of the greenback. Looking ahead, today the US will offer investors batch of data from the housing market, featuring existing home sales numbers, which will bring fresh trading opportunities during the NA session, however, the US dollar price actions will remain as the key determinant for the pair this Wednesday.

Major events of the day:
Prelim. German Manufacturing PMI – 10.30 (GMT +2)
UK Average Earnings Index +Bonus – 11.30 (GMT +2)
UK Claimant Count Change – 11.30 (GMT +2)
US Existing Home Sales – 17.00 (GMT +2)
US Crude Oil Inventories – 17.30 (GMT +2)
NZ CPI – 23.45 (GMT +2)

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.2191 R. 1.2359
USDJPY S. 109.65 R. 111.49
GBPUSD S. 1.3868 R. 1.4092
USDCHF S. 0.9525 R. 0.9659
AUDUSD S. 0.7922 R. 0.8068
NZDUSD S. 0.7281 R. 0.7399
USDCAD S. 1.2370 R. 1.2514

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Thursday, February 1st

The EUR/USD pair was trading under bearish pressure during the Asian session on the back of hawkish rhetoric, sounded at the last FOMC meeting presided by Janet Yellen. As it was widely expected, the Fed left its interest rate unchanged at the 1.5% level. However, the regulator showed some confidence about its inflation outlook, expecting that the inflation will show upbeat results this year. Moreover, the Fed remained determined to raise its interest rates in case if the growth of the US economy will continue to gather pace, thus leaving the door open for a possible interest rate hike in March. However, it is not yet clear whether the regulator will adhere to a more aggressive monetary policy tightening path and will deliver three interest rate hikes this year or we will see more gradual measures of tightening. Looking ahead, today both economic calendars contain manufacturing PMI reports, which will bring fresh trading opportunities during this session, while markets have already started to shift their attention towards the NFP report, which will be released at the end of this week.

The GBP/USD pair was trading with a negative bias during the Asian session, however, it seems that UK bulls had managed to regain control over the pair by the European opening, allowing the pair to regain its positions above the level of 1.4200. Yesterday the pair followed broad market trend and came under selling pressure, as the demand for the US dollar, backed by hawkish outcome of the FOMC meeting, was dominating the market. However, the pair managed to regain its positive mood in early Europe, despite recent headlines, saying about potential sanctions from the EU side against the UK. Recent upside move of the pair is mainly attributed to market confidence in BoE Governor M.Carney’s rhetoric, who expects a significant inflow of investments into the UK economy after resolving uncertainties regarding Brexit. On the data front, today both economies will offer investors manufacturing PMI reports, which will help the pair to determine its further direction.

The USD/JPY pair extends its bullish trend for the second consecutive session, having gained more than 100 points since yesterday’s lows. Recent upside move of the pair could be mainly attributed to increased divergence between monetary policies of the Fed and BoJ. Recall, earlier this week, the head of the Japanese regulator delivered dovish message, where he stated that the Bank would continue to implement strong economic easing measures, as inflation is still far away from its target level. On the other side, the outcome of yesterday’s FOMC meeting showed confidence of the regulator about its inflation outlook, expecting that it will reach target level this year. However, it is expected that slight cautiousness will continue to dominate the market, as we are getting closer to another important event of this week – release of the NFP report, which will take place tomorrow. Besides the key data from the US labor market, today investors will also pay attention to the US ISM manufacturing PMI report, however, since this is the only important release for today, broad market trend will continue to navigate the pair this Thursday.

The AUD/USD pair remains better offered in the second half of this week, getting towards its psychological level of 0.8000. The first and most important bearish factor for the pair remains renewed buying interest around the US dollar, sparked by slightly hawkish outcome of the FOMC meeting, where the regulator left the door open for the rate increase in March. Moreover, negative results from the Australian housing market also added some negative pressure on the Aussie, while neutral Chinese PMI data did nothing to affect pair’s direction. It is expected that today the pair will continue to keep a bearish bias following the US dollar price dynamics, as traders are still digesting recent economic events. Moreover, today the US economy will offer investors manufacturing PMI data, which will also help the pair to form its further short-term trajectory.

Major events of the day:
German Manufacturing PMI – 10.55 (GMT +2)
UK Manufacturing PMI – 11.30 (GMT +2)
US ISM Manufacturing PMI – 16.00 (GMT +2)

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.2336 R. 1.2512
USDJPY S. 108.22 R. 109.92
GBPUSD S. 1.4069 R. 1.4293
USDCHF S. 0.9251 R. 0.9389
AUDUSD S. 0.7986 R. 0.8152
NZDUSD S. 0.7272 R. 0.7466
USDCAD S. 1.2201 R. 1.2403

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Friday, February 2nd

The EUR/USD pair keeps its bid tone at the end of this week, staying in the region of multiyear highs near the level of 1.2500. Recent upbeat tone around the euro was sparked by talks of ECB officials that the regulator could consider ending its QE program. Moreover, weakness of the US dollar, seen during this week, despite slightly hawkish outcome of Wednesday’s FOMC meeting, also helped the pair to re-enter the region of 3-year highs. Today in the agenda, we have non-farm payrolls, so all traders’ attention will remain glued to the data from the US labor market, which will expectedly help the major currency pair to form its further trajectory.

The GBP/USD pair has stalled its recent upside rally and was seen consolidating its positions during the Asian trading session within 20 pips narrow range of 1.4250-70. Seems that the pound continues to ignore negative rumors regarding Brexit and dismissal of the UK PM on the back of supportive comments of the BoE Governor M.Carny, who expects a significant inflow of investments into the UK economy after resolving uncertainties regarding Brexit. However, UK bulls took a breather in Asia on the back of persisting cautiousness ahead of one of the major market-moving event of this week. Now all traders’ attention remains focused to the key data from the US labor market, which will be published during the NA session, however, important UK construction data will also be able to bring some fresh trading opportunities this Friday.

The AUD/USD pair remains the biggest loser of this trading session, re-entering the area of 0.8000, despite several bullish factors, which are supporting the Aussie this Friday. Seems that the Australian bulls have ignored upbeat Australian PPI numbers and positive mood on the commodity market, thus allowing the pair to trim its recently recovered points. The key reason of pair’s weakness remains rebound of the US dollar, backed by yesterday’s positive manufacturing data. Adding to this, persisting cautiousness ahead of the key US jobs data also negatively affects higher-yielding Aussie. Besides US NFP numbers, nothing significant is scheduled in the US data calendar for today, so investors will remain in anticipation of fresh trading opportunities, which will be offered during the NA session.

Bitcoin is going through hard times. The world’s most known cryptocurrency continues to stay under aggressive selling pressure following broad market trend, while having fallen for more than 15% over the last 24 hours to 8,434.16 USD. Currently there are several new factors, which are exerting pressure on the crypto market, including Bitcoin. India joined its Asian peers and now is considering massive regulation measures of the crypto market. The Indian MinFin promised to take all possible measures to eradicate the practice of using cryptocurrencies to finance illegal activities. Moreover, earlier this week Facebook announced that is planning to ban all cryptocurrency and ICO-related ads, citing that “financial products and services frequently associated with misleading or deceptive promotional practices”. All this factors are heavily weighing crypto market, forcing it to turn red, and Bitcoin not an exception. By the moment of writing, the BTC/USD pair was trading at 8,788.00 spot, while market capitalization of the biggest digital currency fell to 143 billion USD.

Major events of the day:
UK Construction PMI – 11.30 (GMT +2)
US Nonfarm Payrolls – 15.30 (GMT +2)
US Unemployment Rate – 15.30 (GMT +2)

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.2332 R. 1.2608
USDJPY S. 108.75 R. 110.07
GBPUSD S. 1.4114 R. 1.4352
USDCHF S. 0.9202 R. 0.9372
AUDUSD S. 0.7951 R. 0.8111
NZDUSD S. 0.7308 R. 0.7446
USDCAD S. 1.2211 R. 1.2359

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Thursday, February 8th

The EUR/USD pair remains offered this Thursday, as US bulls are still dominating the market, sending the pair to refresh its 2-week lows at 1.2236 mark. The main driving factor across the market today remains a solid pickup in the demand for the US dollar, which continues to exert pressure on the pair this week. However, further sharp moves of the pair look unlikely, as investors are remaining in cautious stance ahead of important events, related to the BoE, and which will be able to bring some correlational impetus to the pair during European trades. Today in the economic data calendar investors won’t find anything important, except several speeches by members of both CBs, which most likely won’t attract much of attention, so US dollar price dynamics will continue to stay the key driving factor for the pair during this trading session.

The GBP/USD pair trades with mildly bullish bias today, despite significant drop in interest around higher-yielding assets, as investors are looking forward to today’s big events. During the European session, the BoE will decide on its interest rate, as well as publish its quarterly inflation report, which expectedly will bring some volatility among all GBP pairs. In Asia, the pair was showing minor activity, which is the normal state for the pair amid cautious pre-rate decision market conditions. Today investors expect that the Bank will keep its rate unchanged, as only three months have passed since the last rate hike, so expected that the regulator will continue to maintain its wait-and-see mode, while any Bank’s economic projections, especially indicated in Inflation Report, will have significant impact on the pound. Besides the key events, related to the BoE, nothing important is scheduled in the economic calendar, so all investors’ attention will remain focused to the possible changes in the BOE’s monetary policy program.

The NZD/USD pair remains under heavy pressure of multiple factors this Thursday, which are significantly weighing the Kiwi, and forced the pair to reach its monthly lows, located below the level of 0.72. The main bearish factor for the pair remains the outcome of the RBNZ meeting, which was perceived by the market as a dovish. As it was widely expected, the Bank left its Official Cash Rate unchanged at 1.75 %, however, downgrading its outlooks for inflation and GDP. Regarding further policy course, the CB stated that it would continue to adhere accommodative monetary policy for a considerable period, as numerous uncertainties still persist and policy needs to be adjusted accordingly. Adding to this, dovish comments of RBNZ Assistant Governor J.McDermott, who said that further drop in inflation could trigger a rate cut, exerted extra pressure on NZD/USD. Another bearish factor that navigates the pair today is broadly increased demand for the US dollar. On the data front, today the US economic calendar won’t bring us anything noteworthy, leaving the pair at the mercy of greenback price dynamics, while market participants will continue to digest recent event.

The USD/JPY pair keeps its bid tone in the second half of this week, despite better demand for safety, seen during Asia. First, the yen received notable bearish impetus following comments of BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda, who was speaking in the Japanese parliament. The head of the CB reaffirmed that the central bank will continue powerful quantitative easing to achieve price stability. Moreover, increased buying interest around the US dollar, witnessed during this week, also remains supportive for the pair today. Looking ahead, in absence of any relevant data releases from the US side, the pair will continue to follow the US dollar price dynamics, which remains the key driving factor across the market this Thursday.

Major events of the day:
BoE Inflation Report – 14.00 (GMT +2)
BoE Interest Rate Decision – 14.00 (GMT +2)
BoE Governor M.Carney’s Speech – 14.30 (GMT +2)

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.2145 R. 1.2465
USDJPY S. 108.52 R. 110.12
GBPUSD S. 1.3760 R. 1.4054
USDCHF S. 0.9293 R. 0.9523
AUDUSD S. 0.7756 R. 0.7940
NZDUSD S. 0.7127 R. 0.7399
USDCAD S. 1.2457 R. 1.2631

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Monday, February 12th

The EUR/USD pair remains better bid this Monday, moving closer to the mark of 1.2300. Today, one of the key driving factors remains slight retreat of the US dollar against its main rivals, which could be explained by the breather of US bulls after significant upside rally of the greenback, witnessed last week. However, further sharp moves of the pair look limited, as investors start to prepare for the next market-moving event – the US CPI report, which will be released on Wednesday, and is expected to have a significant impact on the position of the US dollar. Meanwhile, today we will have pretty calm trading session, as both economic calendars won’t bring us anything noteworthy, so the pair will continue to follow broad market trend at the start of this trading week.

The GBP/USD pair remains positive on Monday, extending its recovery from monthly lows, marked on the level of 1.3764 during the last trading session. Today we observe several positive factors that support the pair, and the first of them is increased demand for risky assets, which positively affects higher-yielding pound. Moreover, it seems that the market is still digesting recent hawkish rhetoric of the BoE Governor M.Carney, who considers potential tightening of the monetary policy, as the UK economic continues to show positive results. And finally, softer sentiments around the US dollar also support the pair during the first trading session of this week. On the data front, today nothing noteworthy is scheduled in the economic calendar for the pair, while investors have already started to prepare for inflation reports from both sides, which will be released later this week.

The AUD/USD pair started this week on a positive note, extending rebound from its 7-week lows, marked at 0.7759 spot during the last trading session. Today, renewed market’s risk appetite remains one of the key driving factors, which supports higher-yielding Aussie. Moreover, minor retreat of the US dollar against its main competitors also positively affects positions of the pair at the start of this week. However, in near-term perspective the upside trend of the pair looks unlikely, as we are moving closer to the important US inflation data, which is scheduled for Wednesday, and so investors will have to reconsider their opened positions ahead of the big event. In the day ahead, nothing important is scheduled in the US data calendar, so the pair will continue to follow broad market trend, backed by risk sentiments and US dollar dynamics.

The USD/JPY pair remains directionless at the first trading session of this week, wobbling in the narrow range of 108.60-80 in Asia, as bulls and bears are both struggling to take control over the pair. Today, increased demand for riskier assets remains one of the key themes across the market, which is driving flows away from safe-haven yen. On the other hand, mildly bearish dynamics of the US dollar plays the role of a negative driver, thus limiting pair’s further gains. Looking ahead, it is expected that today the pair won’t show any sharp moves amid lack of any important data releases, scheduled in the economic calendar, while Japanese markets will remain closed due to the celebration of National Foundation Day.

Major events of the day:
Japan – National Foundation Day

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.2166 R. 1.2330
USDJPY S. 107.44 R. 109.96
GBPUSD S. 1.3634 R. 1.4080
USDCHF S. 0.9322 R. 0.9442
AUDUSD S. 0.7727 R. 0.7871
NZDUSD S. 0.7175 R. 0.7297
USDCAD S. 1.2482 R. 1.2732

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Wednesday, February 14th

The EUR/USD pair extends its upside trend, having refreshed its weekly highs in the vicinity of 1.2380, following unchanging market trend. It seems that American bulls have totally lost control over the market, allowing the US dollar to retreat against its major rivals, including the euro. Recent drawdown of the greenback could be partially explained by recent dovish comments of the Fed member J.Powell, who stated that the regulator remains alert to any financial stability risks. Adding to this, ongoing demand for safety could be another supportive factor for the pair this Wednesday. On the data front, today all traders’ eyes will remain glued to the bloc of important US data, featuring highly expected inflation figures, which will be published during NY trades.

The GBP/USD pair remains better bid in the middle of this week, keeping its positions above the level of 1.3900, as the pound is still benefiting from yesterday’s positive British inflation data. Recall, on the last BoE meeting MPC members agreed on the need to implement monetary policy tightening measures, while yesterday’s UK inflation numbers hinted that the regulator could take more aggressive tightening path, which includes several rate hikes this year. However, still persisting risk-off sentiment is negatively affecting higher-yielding assets, and the pound is no exception, thus limiting pair’s further gains. As UK inflation figures have already been digested, now market’s attention shifts towards the US inflation data, which will be able to bring fresh trading opportunities during the NA session.

The dollar/yen pair continues to push its positions to the red territory, having refreshed its 15-month lows at 106.84 spot, despite red numbers of the Japanese GDP report, which was published in Asia. It seems that the US bulls have completely lost control over the market, allowing the pair to retreat to its recent lows. Moreover, widespread risk-aversion continues to dominate the market, boosting demand for safe-haven assets, which is another bearish factor for the pair. However, uncertainty around candidate for the position of the BoJ governor may limit yen’s further gains, as Japanese PM Sh.Abe still hasn’t made a decision of reappointing current head of the regulator H.Kuroda. Recall, it was Mr.Kuroda’s program of quantitative easing that exerted negative pressure on the yen, and fresh view on the economy could positively affect positions of the Japanese currency. On the data front, today all traders’ attention will be focused to the key event of this week – the release of the US inflation report, which will take place during the NA session.

The NZD/USD pair remains one of the top gainers of this Asian trading session, having spiked the level of 0.7300, with a peak, located at 0.7335 spot. Earlier today, the Kiwi received strong bullish impetus following RBNZ’s revision of inflation expectations to the upside. These numbers showed an increase in confidence of the regulator in further healthy growth of the NZ economy. Adding to this, ongoing softness around the US dollar also contributed to pair’s recent upside move. Today, we have important data, scheduled in the US economic calendar, which expectedly will be able to spark volatility around the US dollar during the NA session.

Major events of the day:
US Core CPI – 15.30 (GMT +2)
US Retail Sales – 15.30 (GMT +2)
US Crude Oil Inventories – 17.30 (GMT +2)

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.2248 R. 1.2422
USDJPY S. 106.62 R. 109.36
GBPUSD S. 1.3791 R. 1.3973
USDCHF S. 0.9280 R. 0.9432
AUDUSD S. 0.7805 R. 0.7903
NZDUSD S. 0.7210 R. 0.7346
USDCAD S. 1.2534 R. 1.2654

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Friday, February 16th

The EUR/USD pair follows broad market trend at the last working day of this week, backed by sharp retreat of the US dollar. Recall, the US dollar came under strong selling pressure on Wednesday following upbeat US inflation results, with no clear catalysts, which could trigger downside rally of the greenback. Earlier today the pair refreshed its 3-year highs on the level of 1.2555, as US bulls remain unable to protect positions of the US dollar. However, some FX-analysts believe that the US dollar remains significantly oversold and its upside correction could follow soon, but for now the pair continues to push its positions to the green territory. Nothing much is scheduled for the pair at the last working day, except the data from the US labor market, which expectedly won’t have significant impact across the market, so the US price dynamics will remain the main determinant for the pair this Friday.

The USD/JPY pair continues steadily losing points, having once again refreshed its 15-month lows at 105.55 spot on the back ongoing sell-off of the US currency. On Friday, the weakness of the greenback remains the key driving factor across the market, despite Wednesday positive US inflation numbers, which hinted at more aggressive Fed monetary policy path. Adding to this, in Asia the yen took the center stage, following reappointment of H.Kuroda for the post of the head of the BoJ. It seems that markets took this news positively, providing additional support to the yen at the end of the working week. On the data front, today the US will publish building permits numbers, which will be able to bring some short-term impetus to the pair, however, the US dollar price dynamics will remain as a key determinant for USD/JPY during this trading session.

The AUD/USD pair remains positive after choppy Thursday, moving closer to the mark of 0.80. Yesterday the pair came under minor bearish pressure on the back of attempts of US bulls to retake control over the market and correct positions of the greenback. However, the decline was short-lived and AUD/USD has regained its positive traction, while refreshing its 2-week highs. On the other hand, the pair stalled its bullish run at the start of the Asian session on the back of comments of the RBA Governor Ph.Lowe in parliament, who reiterated the need to maintain current monetary policy, despite broad trend of increasing interest rates, as Australian economic data show mixed results lately. Today, the US will publish data from the labor market, but expectedly it won’t have significant impact on the pair, as weakness of the US dollar remains the main trend-maker this Friday.

The Bitcoin price is finally back above the mark of 10,000 USD for the first time since sharp drawdown below the level of 6,000. The BTC/USD pair continues to trade with mildly bullish bias lately and now is trying to consolidate positions in the vicinity of its psychological mark on the back of broad recovery of the crypto market. Recent positive trend of the world’s largest cryptocurrency could be explained by easing oppression of digital cash by Asian authorities, as South Korea dispelled worries about total ban of cryptocurrency on its territory. By the moment of writing, the Bitcoin price stepped away from its intraday highs, marked at 10,259.00 spot, however, keeping its positions within striking distance of 10,000, while market capitalization of the most popular digital asset increased up to 167 billion US dollars.

Major events of the day:
UK Retail Sales – 11.30 (GMT +2)
US Building Permits – 15.30 (GMT +2)

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.2422 R. 1.2552
USDJPY S. 105.43 R. 107.35
GBPUSD S. 1.3953 R. 1.4177
USDCHF S. 0.9157 R. 0.9323
AUDUSD S. 0.7859 R. 0.8009
NZDUSD S. 0.7344 R. 0.7442
USDCAD S. 1.2422 R. 1.2566

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Tuesday, February 20th

The EUR/USD pair follows broad market trend this Tuesday, extending correction from its 3-year highs. Today the recovery of the US dollar, started on Friday, remains the key underlying theme of this trading session. Recent upside trend of the greenback was additionally underpinned by upbeat tweets of the US President D.Trump, who sees the US economy even better than anticipated. Today the EU calendar will bring us Eurozone’s and German ZEW economic sentiment surveys, which will be able to influence pair’s direction during the European trading session, however, widespread market trend, caused by growth of the US dollar, will remain the key determinant for the pair this Tuesday.

The GBP/USD pair remains bearish for the third consecutive trading session on the back of reappeared fears regarding Brexit and positive sentiments around the US dollar. According to the latest market talks, the UK government is working on a backup plan in case Britain and the EU don’t reach a compromise regarding trade deal. These rumors make us think that the UK is beginning to prepare for the consequences that may occur if further negotiations on Brexit go wrong. Adding to this, recent comments of the EU negotiator Guy Verhofstadt also added some fuel to the fire, as he said that trade deal wouldn’t be reached before the final Brexit day, while also stressing that the EU wouldn’t accept the UK refusal on the policy of free movement. Moreover, ongoing recovery of the US dollar, witnessed since last Friday, is also contributing to the recent pair’s upside trend. Looking ahead, today both economic calendars will remain silent, leaving the pair at the mercy of broad market trend.

The AUD/USD pair struggles to find direction this Tuesday in wake of mixed reaction on the RBA meeting minutes. Earlier today, the market took ambiguously the latest protocols of the RBA, as the regulator once again stressed that higher positions of AUD could be harmful for the Australian economy. Adding to this, the CB reiterated that the inflation growth pace will remain subdued, while stressing that growth is still expected. These comments regarding expectations of still positive inflation have stopped bears from taking the pair under its total control. However, seems that the market has already passed over the RBA minutes, as all in all they didn’t bring anything new concerning the Australian economy. In the day ahead, the digestion of the RBA meeting minutes will step aside and the US dollar price dynamics will take the lead in determining pair’s further trajectory, while the US economic calendar will remain silent this Tuesday.

The USD/JPY pair extends its rebound from 15-month lows, marked last Friday, on the back of several factors, which are exerting support to the pair lately. First, it seems that the sell-off of the yen, sparked by recent comments of Japanese authorities, saying that intervention in the FX market is unlikely, is still full of steam, thus providing support to the pair. Furthermore, recovery of the US dollar remains the key driving factor across the market today, thus additionally boosting upside trend of the pair. On the data front, nothing much is scheduled in the economic calendar for this Tuesday, so further US dollar price action will keep the status of the key determinant for the pair during this trading session.

Major events of the day:
German ZEW Economic Sentiment – 12.00 (GMT +2)

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.2336 R. 1.2470
USDJPY S. 105.83 R. 107.09
GBPUSD S. 1.3910 R. 1.4092
USDCHF S. 0.9233 R. 0.9347
AUDUSD S. 0.7878 R. 0.7952
NZDUSD S. 0.7321 R. 0.7433
USDCAD S. 1.2493 R. 1.2625

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Wednesday, February 21st

The EUR/USD pair looks heavy this week, getting closer to the level of 1.2300, on the back of ongoing demand for the US currency. Seems that US bulls are still keeping control over the market, thereby forming widespread trend. However, today all eyes will remain glued to the release of FOMC minutes, which will be especially interesting in view of recent uptick in the US inflation, as investors are awaiting for fresh updates regarding further Fed monetary policy tightening path. Besides the FOMC protocols, investors will also pay attention to the data from the US housing market, however, the US dollar price dynamics will remain the decisive factor for the pair, since we were able to make sure of this earlier.

The GBP/USD pair has stalled decline and now is consolidating its positions in the region of 1.3900, as we are heading into the busy session. Today we are expecting important releases from both economies, which will be able to set up pair’s next short-term direction. However, GBP/USD still remains under pressure of several bearish factors, like higher demand for the US dollar and ongoing Brexit fears, which also could take a part in determining pair’s further direction. On the data front, both economies have prepared us important events, such as UK inflation report hearings and release of the minutes from the latest FOMC meeting, which will also be able to form further trajectory of the pair later during the NA session.

The AUD/USD pair remains under pressure of several bearish factors, having slipped below the level of 0.7900. The key navigator of this Wednesday remains ongoing growth of the US dollar against its main competitors, which drives the most part of the major currency pairs. Moreover, weaker demand for higher-yielding assets, backed by upcoming FOMC minutes, is another negative factor for the risky Aussie today. And finally, red numbers from the Australian housing market also provided the pair with negative impact, which was intensified by the outcome of the latest RBA meeting, where the regulator decided to keep wait-and-see mode, as the Australian economy shows pretty slow growth pace lately. Adding to the FOMC meeting minutes, the US economic calendar will also offer investors data from the housing market, while the US dollar price actions will keep the status of the key navigator of the pair during this trading session.

Bitcoin shows bullish dynamics lately in wake of easing oppression from Asian authorities. However, the BTC/USD pair lost its positive traction, having retreated from its 2-week lows, marked at 11,769.00 spot in early Asia, which could be explained by minor correction of the asset after significant bullish rally, witnessed since early February. On the other hand, it is expected that the further growth of the pair will continue, as we still receive positive news from the Asian region regarding digital cash. According to latest headlines, the head of the S.Korea’s regulator delivered his message late Tuesday, saying that he hopes to see normalization of the virtual coin business, instead of further regulations tightening. By the moment of writing, the most popular cryptocurrency was trading near the level of 11,000, and its market capitalization was 189 billion US dollars.

Major events of the day:
UK Average Earnings Index +Bonus – 11.30 (GMT +2)
UK Claimant Count Change – 11.30 (GMT +2)
BoE Governor M.Carney’s Speech – 16.15 (GMT +2)
UK Inflation Report Hearings – 16.15 (GMT +2)
US Existing Home Sales – 17.00 (GMT +2)
FOMC Meeting Minutes – 21.00 (GMT +2)

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.2263 R. 1.2447
USDJPY S. 106.26 R. 107.90
GBPUSD S. 1.3889 R. 1.4077
USDCHF S. 0.9248 R. 0.9424
AUDUSD S. 0.7838 R. 0.7956
NZDUSD S. 0.7313 R. 0.7391
USDCAD S. 1.2523 R. 1.2711

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Thursday, February 22nd

The EUR/USD pair follows broad market trend this Thursday, backed by ongoing demand for the US dollar, while losing points for the third consecutive day. Recent growth of the greenback is mostly attributed to the hawkish FOMC minutes, which showed regulator’s confidence in further growth of the inflation. All Fed members agreed that inflation should meet its target level in 2018 already, which in turn provided additional support to the US dollar due to recent positive US inflation results. This outcome of the latest Fed meeting forced investors to start pricing-in more aggressive Fed monetary policy tightening, thereby accelerating the growth of the US dollar against its major peers. Now it’s time for the ECB to publish its account of monetary policy meeting, which will be able to trigger fresh speculations regarding divergence between two monetary policies, while the US data calendar won’t bring us anything noteworthy today, leaving the pair at the mercy of broad market trend and the US dollar price dynamics.

The GBP/USD pair remains bearish for the fifth session in a row, having dropped below the level of 1.3900 this morning. The key reason of pair’s weakness can be called the risk-off sentiment, which was weighing the higher-yielding pound during Asia. Moreover, yesterday’s hawkish FOMC minutes showed confidence of the regulator in further economic growth, which accelerated US dollar’s growth against its major rivals. However, yesterday the pound also received notable bullish impetus following testimony of Mr.Carney and MPC members, who demonstrated an upbeat assessment of the economy. The MPC members noted that the growth pace of the economy exceeded expectations and further tapering of stimulations would be needed. These hawkish comments make us to believe that the Bank will implement 3 more rate hikes this year, instead of 2 expected previously. However, Committee members agreed that Brexit remains the key uncertainty, which is weighing on business investments. Today the economic calendar won’t be so busy as yesterday, however, investors will be able to catch some pips after the UK GDP report, while the US calendar will remain broadly silent this Thursday.

The USD/JPY pair shows choppy trades this Thursday, struggling to find a clear direction. In early Asia the pair received notable bearish impetus, having refreshed its intraday lows in the vicinity of 107 mark, on the back of spike of the demand for safety, which positively affected less risky assets, such as the yen. However, the pair managed to bounce off its recent lows and recover part of its overnight losses, as US bulls are still dominating the market, especially in wake of yesterday’s hawkish FOMC protocols, which pointed to a faster policy tightening path. Today, nothing much is scheduled in the data calendar, so the US dollar price actions will keep the status of the main determinant for the pair during this trading session.

The AUD/USD pair has stalled its recent abrupt retreat and now is trying to consolidate its positions near the level of 0.7800. However, it is expected that the major will continue to stay under pressure, as several bearish factors are weighing the pair. First, yesterday the FOMC meeting minutes indicated confidence of the regulator in the economic growth and increased probability of multiple rate hikes ahead this year, which in turn triggered speculations across the market regarding divergence between policies of the Fed and RBA. Moreover, broad risk-off tone is also negatively affecting higher-yielding Aussie this Thursday. Today, in absence of any relevant data releases the pair will continue to stay under influence of broad market trend and the US dollar price dynamics, backed by recent economic events.

Major events of the day:
German Ifo Business Climate Index – 11.00 (GMT +2)
Prelim. UK GDP – 11.30 (GMT +2)
ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting – 14.30 (GMT +2)
Canada Core Retail Sales – 15.30 (GMT +2)
US Crude Oil Inventories – 18.00 (GMT +2)

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.2227 R. 1.2387
USDJPY S. 107.00 R. 108.28
GBPUSD S. 1.3837 R. 1.4047
USDCHF S. 0.9322 R. 0.9430
AUDUSD S. 0.7737 R. 0.7931
NZDUSD S. 0.7270 R. 0.7408
USDCAD S. 1.2598 R. 1.2754

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Friday, February 23rd

The EUR/USD pair regained its offered tone on Friday after brief correction, seen during the previous session. Renewed weakness of the pair could be mostly explained by ongoing demand for the US dollar, which dominates the market this week. Adding to this, yesterday’s slightly dovish ECB minutes, where the regulator made no changes to its monetary policy or forward guidance, also failed to bring any impact to the common currency. However, both regulators’ minutes, released this week, showed growing policy divergence between Central Banks, which favors the US dollar, as the Fed pointed to more aggressive monetary policy than the ECB. Looking ahead, now all attention remains focused to the EU inflation report, which will be published during European trades, however, it will remain the only important release for today, so widespread market trend will continue to navigate the pair during the NA session.

The GBP/USD pair came out of its brief consolidation phase this morning and now is drifting to the negative territory. Seems that the pair follows broad market trend at the last working day of the week, backed by renewed demand for the US dollar. Adding to this, continuing Brexit fears are also weighing on the pound lately, as UK PM T.May signalled a reversal on a key Brexit policy regarding EU migrants in the UK, following warnings and threats from EU leaders in Brussels, which in turn could mean an undermine of British sovereignty. Today both economic calendars will remain silent, leaving the pair at the mercy of broad market trend, which is determined lately by US dollar price actions.

The NZD/USD pair remains the biggest loser of this Friday, as US bulls have retaken the control over the market, having ignored positive NZ retail sales data, which was released in early Asia. The key reason of pair’s continuing weakness could be called the renewed demand for the US currency across the market. Moreover, slight uncertainty around NZ Bank’s further monetary policy actions remains another bearish factor for the pair, as markets await for the new RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr to takes up his duties. On the data front, today we will witness another quiet session, so further US dollar price dynamics will remain the key determinant for the pair during this trading session.

The USD/JPY pair regained its positive traction in early Asia, having bounced off its 3-day lows, marked at 106.59 spot. Positive tone of the pair could be mainly explained by renewed buying interest around the US dollar after brief downside correction, witnessed on Thursday. Adding to this, another bearish factor for the pair could be fresh comments of BoJ authorities, saying that the yen is too strong, which make us to believe that market intervention could follow soon. On the other side, positive Japan’s inflation figures remain supportive for the yen, which could slow down pair’s current upside trend. Today the US economic calendar lacks any important data, so the US dollar will remain the key navigator for the pair during this session.

Major events of the day:
EU CPI – 12.00 (GMT +2)
Canada Core CPI – 15.30 (GMT +2)

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.2221 R. 1.2407
USDJPY S. 105.86 R. 108.20
GBPUSD S. 1.3801 R. 1.4065
USDCHF S. 0.9270 R. 0.9438
AUDUSD S. 0.7763 R. 0.7901
NZDUSD S. 0.7277 R. 0.7395
USDCAD S. 1.2628 R. 1.2790

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Monday, February 26th

The EUR/USD pair caught fresh pips in Asia, following broad market trend, caused by retreat of the US dollar against its main rivals. However, the pair still remains weighed down, following meeting minutes of both CBs, which triggered fresh speculations regarding divergence between monetary policies of the Fed and ECB. Talks about widening divergence have negatively affected the pair, as Fed’s protocols showed the need of tightening monetary policy, which was especially relevant in light of recent positive US inflation data, while the ECB didn’t provide markets with any surprise. Now all investors’ attention shifts toward speeches of the heads of the CBs – Mr.Draghi and Mr.Powell, which both will take place in the first half of this week and will be able to heat up or cool off recent market’s talks regarding widening divergence between two monetary policies.

The GBP/USD pair remains bullish for the third consecutive session, having leaped above its psychological mark of 1.4000, while refreshing its weekly highs. Recent bullish rally of the pair could be explained by several factors, which are pushing the pair in northward direction. First, renewed sell-off of the US dollar remains the key driving factor on the market today, thus exerting support to the pair. Adding to this, recent hawkish comments of the BoE Deputy Governor D.Ramsden, who said that expects to see rate hike sooner than it was planned previously, provided extra support to the pound. And finally, easing fears around Brexit also positively affected positions of the pair. Looking ahead, today the macro calendar will bring us only US data from housing market, so widespread trend will remain the key determinant for the pair on Monday.

The USD/JPY pair remains broadly offered at the first working day of the week on the back weaker sentiment around the dollar. Today the key driving theme across the market remains downside trend of the US currency, which started at the end of the last week. Taking into account recent trend, the yen ignored several bearish factors during this Asia, such as increased demand for risky assets and speech of the BoJ Governor H.Kuroda, who once again stressed that the regulator would continue powerful monetary easing to achieve inflation target level. However, further interest for risky instruments may appear capped, as markets are awaiting for Fed Charman Jerome Powell’s congressional testimony, where he could provide fresh comments regarding further Fed monetary policy. Today we have pretty light macro calendar, with only the US new home sales report, so broad market sentiments will continue to navigate the pair on Monday.

The NZD/USD pair entered the top most profitable assets of this Asian session, following several bullish factors, which support the Kiwi this Monday. First, new wave of greenback weakness dominates the market today, allowing the pair to grow for more than 60 pips since its daily lows, marked at 0.7277 spot. Moreover, increased risk appetite and upbeat sentiments on the commodity market are two more bullish factors that support the NZ currency on Monday. On the data front, today the US calendar will bring us data from the housing market, while demand for higher-yielding instruments and US dollar price dynamics will continue to determine pair’s further trajectory during this trading session.

Major events of the day:
ECB President M.Draghi’s Speech – 16.00 (GMT +2)
US New Home Sales – 17.00 (GMT +2)

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.2245 R. 1.2361
USDJPY S. 106.21 R. 107.45
GBPUSD S. 1.3856 R. 1.4060
USDCHF S. 0.9295 R. 0.9403
AUDUSD S. 0.7787 R. 0.7871
NZDUSD S. 0.7229 R. 0.7375
USDCAD S. 1.2537 R. 1.2771

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Wednesday, February 28th

The EUR/USD pair follows broad market trend this Wednesday, moving closer to the level of 1.2200. Recent retreat of the pair could be explained by surprisingly hawkish rhetoric of the new Fed Chair J.Powell in Congress. Yesterday Mr.Powell gave an upbeat assessment of the economy and positive outlook for inflation, saying that he expects further gradual monetary policy tightening, with the first interest rate increase in March FOMC meeting. Adding to this, Mr.Powell noted that his personal outlook for the economy had strengthened since December. So, both CBs’ speakers have delivered their messages, and we can say that Mr.Powell sounded a lot more hawkish comparing to cautious tone of Mr.Draghi, which makes the divergence between the Fed and ECB come back to the fore, thus giving extra support to the US dollar. On the data front, today we have pretty busy session, as both economies have prepared important data releases for today, while recent economic events will also continue to influence the pair.

The GBP/USD pair was consolidating its positions near the level of 1.39 in Asia, having taken a breather after its sharp downside rally. Yesterday the pair accelerated its decline after the new Fed Chair Jerome Powell gave a hawkish assessment to the US economy during his Congressional testimony, thus sending the US dollar higher against its major competitors. Moreover, the pound remains under strong bearish pressure due to ongoing Brexit fears. Now markets are remaining in anticipation of Friday, where Prime Minister Theresa May will give her vision on further Brexit scenario. Today the UK data calendar won’t bring us anything noteworthy, but the US will publish prelim. GDP numbers and data from the housing market, however, it is expected that the market will continue digesting recent hawkish comments of Mr.Powell, which will also influence the pair.

The NZD/USD pair remains heavy in the middle of this week, having refreshed its 2-week lows during the Asian session on the level of 0.7220. The key reason of pair’s recent retreat could be called yesterday’s positive US economy’s assessment of the new Fed Chair J.Powell during his first semi-annual testimony in Congress, which positively affected positions of the US dollar across the market. Moreover, shrinking risk appetite, caused by red numbers of Chinese manufacturing data, additionally accelerated decline of the pair. However, seems that the pair met some support near its recent lows and managed to recover some pips in early Europe, as US bulls took a short breather after sharp rally of the greenback. In the day ahead, it is expected that the pair will stay under pressure, as markets will continue to digest recent comments of Mr.Powell, while the US will publish preliminary GDP numbers and data from housing market, which will also be able to attract some attention during the NA session.

The USD/JPY pair ignores broad market trend and remains negative on Wednesday on the back of hawkish decision of the BoJ. Recall, yesterday the pair received notable bullish impetus following Fed Chair J.Powell’s unambiguously positive comments on the economy. However, the bullish rally didn’t last long and the pair turned in the north direction in wake of news headlines, saying that the BoJ decided to reduce its massive QE program. Adding to this, increasing demand for safe-haven assets, underpinned by weaker-than-expected Chinese manufacturing data, provides extra support to the yen this Wednesday. Looking ahead, today the US macrocalendar will offer investors prelim. GDP and pending home sales data, however, it seems that the dust around Mr.Powell’s comments hasn’t settled down yet, so US bulls will try to restore demand for the greenback further during today’s session.

Major events of the day:
German Unemployment Change – 11.00 (GMT +2)
Prelim. EU CPI – 12.00 (GMT +2)
Prelim. US GDP – 15.30 (GMT +2)
US Pending Home Sales – 17.00 (GMT +2)
US Crude Oil Inventories – 17.30 (GMT +2)

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.2141 R. 1.2391
USDJPY S. 106.35 R. 108.15
GBPUSD S. 1.3782 R. 1.4060
USDCHF S. 0.9330 R. 0.9446
AUDUSD S. 0.7727 R. 0.7899
NZDUSD S. 0.7183 R. 0.7329
USDCAD S. 1.2630 R. 1.2848

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[EEAnalytics]

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Thursday, March 1st

The EUR/USD pair follows broad market trend this Thursday, mostly caused by bullish sentiments around the US dollar, having refreshed 6-week lows below the level of 1.22. Recent upsurge of the US dollar is attributed to continuing speculations regarding more aggressive Fed monetary policy tightening path, which was sparked by hawkish message from Fed Chief Powell regarding health of the US economy on Tuesday. Seems that markets have reconsidered potential measures of Fed monetary policy tightening and now investors are pricing-in four rate hikes, which could be implemented this year. Looking ahead, today investors will look forward for Powell’s testimony before the Senate Banking Committee for more details regarding further Fed actions, which is the main market-moving event of this Thursday.

The GBP/USD pair was the worst performer of the previous trading session, having refreshed its 6-week lows at 1.3743 mark, on the back of several factors, which are still driving the asset to the negative territory. The pound continues to receive negative pressure from ongoing “Hard Brexit” fears, which is looking increasingly likely lately. The confrontation between two sides, with inability to reach a compromise on several questions, accelerated lately. Moreover, UK domestic pressure on Brexit also adds some uncertainty to the situation, as several UK officials are not satisfied with PM May’s approach to negotiations, saying that she is sacrificing UK sovereignty. Adding to this, bullish rally of the US dollar is another factor, which contributes to pair’s sharp drawdown. On the data front, today we are expecting for manufacturing data from both economies, while the second round of the Fed Chair Powell’s testimony will hog the limelight during the NA session.

The AUD/USD pair keeps its offered tone this Thursday, having refreshed its 2-month lows at 0.7717 spot, despite positive Chinese data. In Asia, the market witnessed risk-off trend ahead of the second round of Fed Chair Powell’s testimony. Since Mr.Powell has already gave his assessment on the US economy, investors will closely look at his comments for any details regarding further Fed policy course. However, the pair met some support near its recent lows, following upbeat China’s Caixin manufacturing PMI, which allowed the pair to slow down its bearish rally, as Chine is the biggest business partner of Australia. As already mentioned, today Fed Chair Powell’s speech before the Senate will take center stage, while the US manufacturing data will also be able to bring some trading opportunities to investors during the NA session.

The USD/JPY pair remains under pressure today, mostly ignoring broad market trend, caused by upside rally of the greenback. Seems that the yen appeared worthy opponent to the US currency, forcing the pair to ignore recent upside rally of the dollar, sparked by Mr.Powell’s upbeat assessment of the economy and confidence in reaching the inflation target this year. The main reason of yen’s bullish actions could be called broad demand for safety, which allows the USD/JPY pair to keep its positions in the lower end of its weekly range. Moreover, recent news regarding tapering QE program by the BoJ also adds some negative pressure to the pair lately. Today all traders’ eyes will remain glued to another round of Fed Chair Powell’s testimony, while the US macro data will also be able to attract some attention during the NA session.

Major events of the day:
German Manufacturing PMI – 10.55 (GMT +2)
UK Manufacturing PMI – 11.30 (GMT +2)
Fed Chair J.Powell’s Testimony – 17.00 (GMT +2)
US ISM Manufacturing PMI – 17.00 (GMT +2)

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.2153 R. 1.2261
USDJPY S. 105.96 R. 107.88
GBPUSD S. 1.3650 R. 1.3970
USDCHF S. 0.9356 R. 0.9502
AUDUSD S. 0.7722 R. 0.7838
NZDUSD S. 0.7181 R. 0.7255
USDCAD S. 1.2731 R. 1.2891

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