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Friday, December 15th
The EUR/USD pair regained its positive tone, moving closer to the level of 1.1800, after moderate retreat, provoked by dovish comments of the ECB President M.Draghi. On Thursday, the ECB left its interest rate unchanged, while revising its forecast for inflation and GDP to the upside. However, the pair failed to gain further positive traction after ECB press conference, where Bank’s President M.Draghi reminded about potential downside risks for inflation in the Eurozone. However, ongoing post-FOMC weakness of the US dollar is still dominating the market, allowing the pair to regain some position at the last working day of this week. Today, in absence of any important data releases, the pair will continue following broad market trend, caused by recent CB’s decisions.
The GBP/USD pair struggles to find direction for the second day in a row, remaining near its weekly highs, marked at 1.3467 spot a day before. Yesterday investors barely reacted on widely expected and uninformative outcome of the BoE meeting. All MPC members voted to leave interest rates unchanged at 0.50% and asset purchase facility at £435 billion. Meanwhile, seems that markets have already digested recent negative Brexit developments, wherein the UK lawmakers voted against PM Theresa May’s Brexit plan, that, in turn, eased bearish pressure on the pair somewhat. Moreover, continuing subdued US dollar dynamics, caused by recent not enough hawkish outcome of the FOMC meeting, also provides support to the pair at the end of this week. On the data front, today we will have relatively silent data session, so broad market trend will remain as a key determinant for the pair this Friday.
The NZD/USD pair remains top gainer of this Asian trading session, having refreshed its nearly 2-month highs above the level of 0.7000. One of the main reasons of pair’s recent positive trend are comments of New Zealand Finance Minister Grant Robertson, who stated that he is comfortable with current exchange rate of NZD. Moreover, another bullish factor, which supports the pair this Friday, remains subdued dynamics of the US dollar, as investors are still digesting outcome of the FOMC meeting. Today the US calendar will bring us only secondary data reports, which will unlikely attract much of investors’ attention, thus the pair will continue to gain traction from broad market trend during this session.
The USD/JPY pair extends its bearish trend for the third consecutive session, mainly driven by broad weakness of the US dollar. Recall, on Wednesday the Fed increased its interest rate by 25 bps, but failed to provide any fresh clues regarding its further monetary policy. The market took this outcome of the Fed meeting as a dovish factor, forcing the US dollar to retreat against its main competitors. Adding to this, ongoing uncertainty over much-awaited US tax reforms also weighs the US dollar, which eventually remains another negative factor for the pair. In addition, Japan released bloc of mixed Tankan data earlier today, which largely failed to bring any impetus to the pair. Looking ahead, today the US data calendar will remain broadly silent, leaving the pair at the mercy of broad market trend at the end of this week.
The main events of the day:
Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1711 R. 1.1895
USDJPY S. 111.63 R. 113.27
GBPUSD S. 1.3345 R. 1.3505
USDCHF S. 0.9812 R. 0.9942
AUDUSD S. 0.7603 R. 0.7709
NZDUSD S. 0.6948 R. 0.7040
USDCAD S. 1.2639 R. 1.2943
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