Forex.ee: Daily economic news digest

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Daily economic digest from Forex.eeStay informed of the key economic events

Tuesday, March 21st

The EUR/USD pair met fresh bids in Asian trading session on news that centrist E.Macron has strengthened its leading positions in French election race. Today it became known that E.Macron won the first Presidential debates, strongly outperforming far-right candidate M.Le Pen. This news reduced fears around M.Le Pen’s promises of Frexit and bringing back French franc in case of her victory in the elections. Today EU data calendar remains absolutely empty, while US docket contains only secondary data releases, so the pair will continue to follow global market’s trend, based on recent economic and political events from both sides.

This morning the AUD/USD pair bounced off several times its key support level of 0.7700, nevertheless, still remaining under bearish control. The major came under strong selling pressure this Tuesday, as RBA minutes showed concerns about growing risks associated with housing market. Moreover, ongoing sell-off in copper is also collaborating with pair’s bearish bias. On the other hand, still persisting US dollar’s softness, based on recent dovish FOMC meeting, is slowing down pair’s further retreat. Looking ahead, another quiet data session approached the market this Tuesday, leaving the pair at the mercy of global market’s sentiments.

The dollar/yen pair trades on a firm note this Tuesday, despite weak sentiments around the greenback. The pair regained its bid tone in Asia, as strong risk-on rally, based on upbeat sentiments around French elections, have weighed yen’s safe-haven status. However, further pair’s growth appears fragile, as the market is still digesting recent less hawkish comments of Fed Chair J.Yellen regarding further Fed rate increases. Nothing much is due to release during this trading session, so RO-RO trend and USD price dynamics will remain as key drivers for the pair this Tuesday.

The pound regained its positive mood against its US peer on European opening, stepping away from its daily lows, posted at 1.2340 spot, after yesterday’s retreat. Seems that US bulls took a breather this morning, after brief dollar’s correction, allowing the pair to recover some pips. Also traders reacted positively on UK PM T.May’s plans to trigger Article 50 on March 29, that brings some clarity around Brexit developments. Further negotiation process of UK exit from Eurozone will remain as a key driver for the pair in a mid-term projection. However, immediate focus shifts to UK inflation figures due to release in Europe, while US data calendar remains relatively empty another session in a row.

The main events of the day:
UK CPI – 11.30 (GMT +2)
BoE Governor M.Carney’s speech – 12.00 (GMT +2)
Canadian Core Retail Sales – 14.30 (GMT +2)

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.0694 R. 1.0800
USDJPY S. 112.18 R. 113.08
GBPUSD S. 1.2274 R. 1.2476
USDCHF S. 0.9945 R. 1.0011
AUDUSD S. 0.7661 R. 0.7781
NZDUSD S. 0.6971 R. 0.7113
USDCAD S. 1.3274 R. 1.3412

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Wednesday, March 22nd

The EUR/USD pair keeps its positive mood on Wednesday, staying in the region of 1.08. The euro continues to benefit from various opinion polls, that are predicting E.Macron’s win at French election race, outperforming its far-right anti-EU competitor M.Le Pen. Moreover, the euro is getting additional support from risk-off market profile, allowing the pair to refresh its daily tops at 1.0818. Looking ahead, today only data from the US housing market will be able bring some impetus to the pair, so broad risk-off moods will continue to drive the market this Wednesday.

The AUD/USD pair is trading in tandem with commodities, having refreshed its weekly lows at 0.7650 mark this morning. The Aussie remains under strong pressure lately, as ongoing weakness of the commodity market, especially in copper, is significantly weighing the pair. Moreover, shrinking risk appetite is driving flows away from higher-yielding assets, such as Australian currency, additionally underpinning bearish sentiment around the pair. However, the greenback continues to suffer from recent events, held on economic field of the US, allowing the pair to recover some pips this morning. Today traders will set up their focus on existing home sales data, that are scheduled on NA session, for fresh short-term trading impetus.

The USD/JPY pair extends it bearish bias for the seventh consecutive session in a row, as JPY bulls are capping any greenbacks recovery attempts on the back of strong risk-off moods, seen lately. Seems that risk aversion moods are at its full swing in early Europe, allowing the pair to refresh its 4-month lows at 111.15 spot and also limiting the pair from any further gains. Moreover, this morning the Japanese economy provided the market with upbeat trade balance data, that are also collaborating to pair’s bearish trend. Today economic docket remains fairly quiet, with only US housing data scheduled in it, so the pair, most probably, will keep following risk trend during this trading session.

The GBP/USD pair continues to stay in positive territory, having refreshed its four-week highs just a few pips above 1.2500 level during Asian trading session. The dollar keeps losing ground against its main competitors for a couple of sessions in a row in response to dovish remarks of Fed Chair J.Yellen, stated last week. Additionally, the pound may find some support from the latest news, that UK PM T.May rejected the second Scottish referendum of getting independency, while yesterday’s upbeat UK inflation data are still positively influencing the UK currency. However, strong risk-off moods are gripping the market lately, limiting further pound’s gains. On the data front, the UK docket remains absolutely empty this Wednesday, while the US economy will publish Existing Home Sales report later in NA session.

The main events of the day:
US Existing Home Sales – 16.00 (GMT +2)
US Crude Oil Inventories – 16.30 (GMT +2)
RBNZ Interest Rate Decision – 22.00 (GMT +2)

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.0682 R. 1.0882
USDJPY S. 110.70 R. 113.36
GBPUSD S. 1.2283 R. 1.2591
USDCHF S. 0.9873 R. 1.0033
AUDUSD S. 0.7640 R. 0.7774
NZDUSD S. 0.6996 R. 0.7112
USDCAD S. 1.3226 R. 1.3428

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Thursday, March 23rd

The EUR/USD pair failed to hold its recovered positions and fell back in early Europe to the region of its overnight lows, marked at 1.0782 spot, amid improved risk-on sentiments. However, pair’s further downside traction appears fragile, as cautious sentiments ahead of the Trumpcare bill vote are getting stronger, thereby providing the euro with some support. If the bill is not be approved by Congress, then it will raise concerns about D.Trump’s ability to fulfill his election promises, which will become a key driver in the market in the mid-term projection. On the other hand, if Obamacare does not survive the vote, it will encourage investors to think about prospects of further fiscal reforms, that will return risk-off trend to the market. However, news that E.Macron widens the gap on the French presidential election race, leaving M.Le Pen behind, are positively influencing the euro lately. Looking ahead, today data from US housing market and few Fedspeaks will also be able to attract traders’ attention later in NA session.

The NZD/USD regained its positive tone after solid decline, led by eventless RBNZ statement, amid risk-on sentiments reset. The bird came under strong selling pressure, refreshing its overnight lows at 0.7025 spot, after CB of NZ left its OCR unchanged, while noting in the statement that accompanied the decision, that their policy will remain accommodative for a considerable period. However, the pair managed to bounce-off overnight lows, as risk sentiments improved somewhat, thereby lifting the higher-yielding Kiwi. However, today investors will stay focused, as we are getting closer to the crucial Obamacare replacement bill vote in the House of Representatives, that is the major risk event of this Thursday, especially taking into account latest concerns around D.Trump’s policy.

The GBP/USD pair is trading in south direction this morning, retreating from its recent highs, posted at 1.2514 mark, mostly driven by RO-RO trend. Earlier in Asia the pair caught fresh bids amid renewed risk appetite, refreshing its monthly tops, however, the spike was faded quickly, as cautious sentiments are gathering the pace ahead of the US House vote on the Trumpcare bill, that could trigger another wave of risk rejections, driving flows away from higher-yielding assets, such as UK currency. Moreover, the pair remains pressured lately, as the market is still digesting recent headlines of a terrorist attacks on the UK parliament, that still are negatively influencing the pound. Today beside vote on the Trumpcare bill, UK Retail Sales and US New Home Sales will also be released during this trading session, providing investors with additional short-term trading opportunities.

The dollar/yen pair is trimming its recovered positions, eyeing to retake its key support level of 111.00. Yesterday the pair managed to refresh its 4-month lows at 110.73 mark, amid broad greenback’s weakness. However, flash of risk-on sentiments, seen in Asia, forced the pair to step back from its recent lows. Nevertheless, currently the pair is trading in south direction, as cautious sentiments are gathering pace across the market ahead of the crucial vote on the US President Donald Trump’s healthcare bill, that could once again trigger wave of risk aversion sentiments across the market, thereby providing extra support to safe-haven assets, such as the yen.

The main events of the day:
UK Retail Sales – 11.30 (GMT +2)
Fed Chair J.Yellen’s speech – 14.45 (GMT +2)
US New Home Sales – 16.00 (GMT +2)

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.0750 R. 1.0848
USDJPY S. 110.17 R. 112.27
GBPUSD S. 1.2387 R. 1.2553
USDCHF S. 0.9848 R. 0.9978
AUDUSD S. 0.7618 R. 0.7718
NZDUSD S. 0.6988 R. 0.7100
USDCAD S. 1.3262 R. 1.3442

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Friday, March 24th

The EUR/USD pair staged solid comeback in early Europe, backed by upbeat flash German Manufacturing PMI report, and now is flirting with 1.08 level. However, further pair’s upside potential remains capped, as US bulls are showing significant activity this Friday. Moreover, cautious sentiments, based on talks over the healthcare bill vote, that was postponed yesterday, are also limiting the pair from any sharp moves, while adding some better sentiments around euro’s funding status. Now focus turns on US Core Durable Goods Orders data, which will be released in NA session, while Trumpcare vote will grab most part of traders’ attention tonight.

The NZD/USD pair extends its bearish trend for the second session in a row at the end of this week and now is flirting with its psychological support level, located at 0.7000. The Kiwi came under strong selling in Asian after weak NZ reports showed deficit in its Trade Balance. Moreover, increase in the demand for the USD is navigating the market this Friday, thereby limiting any pair’s chances to recover its positions. Later today, US Core Durable Goods Orders will provide the pair with short-term impetus, while postponed vote on Trump’s healthcare bill will remain at center stage later in NA session.

The USD/CAD pair eased part of its gains in early Europe, but still remaining firmer amid broad US dollar’s strength. Seems that the greenback is extending its recovery for the second session in a row, forcing the pair to refresh its three-day highs at 1.3375 mark. Another factor that interacts with pair’s upside traction remains ongoing softness in oil prices, that were weakened by red numbers of Crude Oil Inventories on Wednesday. Looking ahead, busy session is scheduled in today’s economic calendar with US Core Durable Goods Orders, Canadian Core CPI and Obamacare replacement bill on vote.

Today the dollar/yen pair stalled its eight-day losing streak and staged solid comeback, recovering from its 4-month lows, seen in previous trading session. Currently the pair is trading in north direction, remaining within striking distance of its daily highs, posted at 111.48 spot, on the back of broad US dollar’s correction against its main competitors. Adding to this, disappointing bloc of Japanese data, witnessed this morning, is also collaborating to the pair’s strong recovery move on the last trading day of the week. On the data front, today traders will set up their focus on US Core Durable Goods Orders data, while Trumpcare bill vote saga continues to influence the market.

The main events of the day:
Core Durable Goods Orders – 14.30 (GMT +2)
Canadian Core CPI – 14.30 (GMT +2)

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.0747 R. 1.0823
USDJPY S. 110.08 R. 111.98
GBPUSD S. 1.2436 R. 1.2574
USDCHF S. 0.9897 R. 0.9959
AUDUSD S. 0.7587 R. 0.7697
NZDUSD S. 0.7004 R. 0.7068
USDCAD S. 1.3299 R. 1.3381

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Monday, March 27th

The EUR/USD pair is trading on a firm note, flirting with this year highs at 1.0873 spot, as failure of the Trumpcare bill in the Congress is driving the greenback lower across the board. Today the pair opened with strong bullish gap, following news that the House of Representatives rejected US President Donald Trump’s healthcare bill on Friday, thereby raising market’s concerns about D.Trump’s ability to fulfill his election promises. Additionally, positive German data, released in early Europe are also collaborating with positive sentiments around the common currency. Looking ahead, today the pair will continue to follow global market’s sentiments, as only several speeches by ECB and Fed members are scheduled in today’s docket.

The GBP/USD pair remains well bid this Monday, refreshing its multi week highs at 1.2490, on the back of broad dollar’s retreat across the market. On Friday it became known that Trump’s healthcare bill failed to pass through the Congress, providing highly negative impact to the greenback, as it casts doubt on US president’s promises. Moreover, headlines that UK PM T.May is visiting Scottish First Minister N.Sturgeon today in order “to build a more United nation” ahead of this week historical events for UK are additionally supporting the pound. On the other hand, any abrupt moves will remain restricted, as traders now are setting up their focus on initiation of Article 50, that is scheduled on this Wednesday. Today the data calendar will remain relatively silent, so the pair will continue to trace broad markets sentiments during this trading session.

The dollar/yen pair extends its northern march at the start of this week after brief recovery, seen on Friday, once again refreshing its 4-month lows at 110.17 mark. Seems that US bulls remain unconfident today on the back of news that Trumpcare bill didn’t pass the vote in the Congress on Friday, imposing even more uncertainty around D.Trump’s actions and implementation of his tax reforms, that is forcing the greenback to decline across the board. Moreover, shrinking risk appetite across the market is positively influencing safe-haven assets, such as yen. Only secondary data releases are scheduled in today’s docket, so broad risk trend and USD price dynamics will remain as key determinants of pair’s movements during this trading session.

The NZD/USD pair set up its course in south direction at the start of this week amid broad US dollar’s weakness. The market reacted negatively on Trumpcare bill failure in the Congress on Friday, thereby sharply weighing on the US currency. On the other hand, risk-off market’s profile is slowing down pair’s bullish rally, capping the Kiwi from any sharp gains. Nothing much is scheduled in data calendar for this Monday, so the pair will continue to follow global markets sentiments, driven by weaker US dollar’s dynamics lately.

The main events of the day:
None

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.0732 R. 1.0850
USDJPY S. 110.28 R. 112.00
GBPUSD S. 1.2434 R. 1.2540
USDCHF S. 0.9849 R. 0.9991
AUDUSD S. 0.7585 R. 0.7659
NZDUSD S. 0.6973 R. 0.7069
USDCAD S. 1.3320 R. 1.3414

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Tuesday, March 28th

The EUR/USD pair stepped down from its four-month highs, posted yesterday at 1.0906 mark, and now is trading in the region of 1.0860 in response to dollar’s attempts to correct its positions against major rivals and improved demand for higher-yielding assets. Yesterday the main currency pair received strong support from better-then-expected German data, however, the main reason of yesterday’s growth of the euro was US dollar’s weakness. Today amid data quiet calendar from Eurozone the pair will continue to trace sentiments around the US currency, while US CB Consumer Confidence and Fed Chair J.Yellen’s speech will also provide some short-term impetus to the pair.

The GBP/USD pair came out of its consolidation phase and slumped to its daily lows, marked at 1.2539, in early Europe in wake of greenback’s attempts to recover some ground. However, improved risk appetite is boosting demand for higher-yielding currencies this Tuesday such, as the GBP. On the other hand, better risk tone won’t last long, as the market is turning cautious ahead of historic triggering of Article 50, that could set up a course for the pound in mid-term projection. For today the UK docket remains absolutely empty, so traders will set up their focus on US fundamentals and several Fedspeaks, that are scheduled on NA session.

The USD/JPY pair bounced off its four-month lows, marked yesterday at 110.11 spot, amid broad risk reset. However, the dollar is still remaining weak, as traders continue to digest recent healthcare bill failure in the Congress, offered by US president, that fueled concerns surrounding D.Trump’s ability to fulfill his promises. Today USD price dynamics and RO-RO trend will remain as key drivers for the pair during this trading session, while US fundamentals and Fed Chairwoman J.Yellen’s speech, scheduled on NA trading session, will also be able to provide investors with some short-term trading opportunities.

The AUD/USD pair extends its bearish run for the sixth consecutive session despite broadly offered tone around the greenback. Yesterday the Aussie came under selling pressure, as strong risk aversion gripped the market, leaving AUD/USD pair resilient to US dollar’s weakness. Moreover, seems that Australian bulls are still out of steam this Tuesday, as ongoing weakness in copper prices is negatively influencing the pair, while minor risk recovery is limiting Aussie’s losses. Looking ahead, today the US economy will provide the market with CB Consumer Confidence report, while Fed Chair J.Yellen will deliver her speech in NY afternoon.

The main events of the day:
US CB Consumer Confidence – 17.00 (GMT +2)
BoC Governor S.Poloz’s speech – 17.10 (GMT +2)
Fed Chair J.Yellen’s speech – 19.50 (GMT +2)

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.0782 R. 1.0946
USDJPY S. 109.66 R. 111.54
GBPUSD S. 1.2418 R. 1.2684
USDCHF S. 0.9772 R. 0.9936
AUDUSD S. 0.7584 R. 0.7664
NZDUSD S. 0.6993 R. 0.7091
USDCAD S. 1.3283 R. 1.3449

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Wednesday, March 29th

The GBP/USD pair fell for more than two cents from yesterday’s highs and now is consolidating its sharp decline in the region of 1.2400 level, as traders remain unkind to the pound ahead of formal beginning of separation process between UK and Eurozone. Today all market’s attention will be focused on developments, surrounding the Article 50 trigger, as the UK PM T.May has already signed official notice that Britain is leaving EU and has sent it to European Council President D.Tusk, who will hold a press conference in European afternoon, announcing that negotiations on Brexit process will officially start. Beside Brexit process start, today the US economy will release data from housing market, while traders’ reaction on it will be limited in wake of more crucial events of this Wednesday.

The EUR/USD pair is trading near its lower bound of this week, as bears continue to keep control over the major. Currently the pair is trading in south direction, breaking below the level of 1.0800, in wake of the broadly stronger greenback, underpinned by positive US macro data on Tuesday, hawkish Fedspeaks and solid gains in the pair with the pound. Today all eyes will be set up on developments surrounding Article 50 during the European session, accompanied with UK PM T.May’s speech, while traders will also be able to catch some pips after release of the US Pending Home Sales report, that is scheduled on NA trading session.

The AUD/USD pair staged a solid comeback from its two-week lows, marked yesterday at 0.7587 spot, however, further pair’s growth remains unlikely in wake of lack of bullish momentum. Seems that Aussie’s bulls are still having some steam in early Europe despite ongoing weakness in copper and renewed buying interest around the greenback, underpinned by yesterday’s upbeat US economic data. Moreover, strong nervousness ahead Article of 50 trigger is also driving flows away from higher-yielding assets, such as Aussie. Looking ahead, only US Pending Home Sales are scheduled in data calendar for this Wednesday, so the pair will continue to follow global markets sentiments to determine its further direction.

The dollar/yen pair remains consolidative in early Europe after strong bullish rally, seen this Tuesday. Yesterday the pair came out of its region of multi week lows in response to strong gains of the US dollar vs. its British competitor, as traders preferred to close their GBP longs ahead of Article 50 trigger. Today developments around Brexit process are expected to drive global markets sentiments, supporting safe-haven assets, such as the yen. Additionally, data from the US housing market will also be able to bring some impact to the pair later in NA session.

The main events of the day:
UK Prime Minister T.May’s speech – 14.30 (GMT +2)
US Pending Home Sales – 17.00 (GMT +2)
US Crude Oil Inventories – 17.30 (GMT +2)

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.0754 R. 1.0902
USDJPY S. 109.82 R. 111.86
GBPUSD S. 1.2340 R. 1.2652
USDCHF S. 0.9793 R. 1.0001
AUDUSD S. 0.7558 R. 0.7692
NZDUSD S. 0.6981 R. 0.7065
USDCAD S. 1.3322 R. 1.3444

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Tuesday, April 4th

The AUD/USD pair broke out of its short overnight consolidation range this morning and fell to its three-week lows, marked at 0.7572 spot, following uneventful RBA Statement. As it was widely expected the RBA kept status quo during its meeting, leaving its refi rate unchanged at 1.50% level. However, the accompanying statement showed, that RBA’s focus remains on Chinese economy, as China is the largest Australia’s trading partner. The RBA members expressed concern over persisting medium-term risks of the Chinese economy, that eventually triggered an intense sell-off in the pair. Looking ahead, nothing much is scheduled in data calendar from both sides this Tuesday, so the USD price dynamics and dominant risk-off moods will continue to lead the pair during this trading session.

The EUR/USD pair came under renewed selling pressure in early Europe after steady Asian trades and now is flirting with the region of 1.0650. The pair remains highly pressured lately in wake of broad demand for the greenback amid renewed hopes of two more Fed rate hikes this year and upbeat fundamentals from the US economy. On the other hand, strong risk-aversion is supporting the common currency, limiting pair’s further losses. Nothing much is scheduled in data calendar from both economies, except speech by ECB President M.Draghi at the launching of the new €50 banknote in Frankfurt, so the pair will continue to trace global markets sentiments to determine its further direction.

The GBP/USD pair met aggressive sell-off just ahead of European opening, as traders are gearing up for another portion of UK fundamentals, taking into account yesterday’s awful UK Manufacturing PMI results. Additionally, the pair is remaining pressured this morning in wake of intensifying risk-off sentiments, that are limiting any pair’s attempts to recover some ground. Today besides UK fundamental report, the US docket will release only secondary data, so broad risk-off sentiments will continue to stay in charge of pair’s further direction.

The dollar/yen pair is extending its bearish bias for the third consecutive session, remaining within striking distance of its weekly lows, posted at 110.33, on the back of shrinking appetite. Seems that US bulls have already forgotten about upbeat yesterday’s US releases and have mostly ignored another BOJ Governor H.Kuroda’s dovish comments, in which he noted, that Japanese CB is not planning right now to end up with monetary policy easing program. Nevertheless, today amid relatively empty data calendar from both sides the pair will continue to stay influenced by strong demand for safe-haven assets, such as the yen, additionally fueled by crucial events due later this week.

The main events of the day:
UK Construction PMI – 11.30 (GMT +2)
ECB President M.Draghi’s speech – 16.30 (GMT +2)

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.0625 R. 1.0703
USDJPY S. 110.38 R. 111.84
GBPUSD S. 1.2411 R. 1.2591
USDCHF S. 0.9989 R. 1.0049
AUDUSD S. 0.7563 R. 0.7661
NZDUSD S. 0.6974 R. 0.7034
USDCAD S. 1.3245 R. 1.3467

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Wednesday, April 5th

The EUR/USD pair stepped away from its 3-week lows, posted yesterday at 1.0636, however, stalled its recovery in mid-Asia in wake of broadly stronger US currency. Seems that EUR bulls got out of steam today, allowing the pair to retreat from its this week highs, marked at 1.0685, in wake of broad demand for the USD. However, recent opinion poll results showed, that far-right candidate M.Le Pen is still behind E.Macron in French election race, thereby lending support to the common currency. Moreover, increasing nervousness ahead of tomorrow’s official meeting between leaders of the two largest economies in the world – US and China, will also provide extra legs of support to the pair. Today all attention turns toward the US ADP jobs report, followed by ISM services PMI and FOMC minutes, which will take center stage during NA session.

The USD/JPY pair bounced off its overnight lows, marked at 110.54, amid steady demand for the US currency, however, still remaining pressured, as prevalent risk-off tone is gripping the market. Today the pair managed to recover some ground during late Asia, as bid tone around the greenback is still remaining one of the main drivers across the market in wake of growing expectations of further aggressive tightening of the Fed monetary policy. However, increasing cautiousness ahead of today’s FOMC Meeting Minutes is limiting any pair’s chances for further recovery. Besides FOMC minutes, today traders will closely watch for US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and ADP Nonfarm Employment Change that will be able to shape up market’s expectations of Friday’s crucial NFP report, while broad risk aversion, additionally fueled by tomorrow’s US-China summit, will remain as a key driver for the pair during this session.

Today the NZD/USD pair once again refreshed its multi week lows at 0.6965 in response to broadly higher positions of the US dollar. Moreover, strong risk-off sentiments ahead of key risky events are also driving flows away from higher-yielding assets, such as NZ dollar. However, the Kiwi managed to recover some ground this morning, stepping away from its recent lows, as better tone in commodity prices is supporting the pair somewhat. Now all traders’ attention remains focused on the US economic docket, featuring ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and FOMC Meeting Minutes, for fresh short-term trading opportunities during NA session.

The GBP/USD pair remained mostly unchanged in early Europe ahead of busy data session, scheduled for this Wednesday. The pair is struggling to recover some ground amid ongoing bid tone around the greenback and lack of news from Brexit front. Moreover, streak of disappointing UK PMIs and increasing cautiousness across the market ahead of crucial economic and political events, scheduled for this week, are limiting pound’s chances for recovery. Looking ahead, today the pair won’t suffer from lack of momentum, as bloc of important releases such as UK Service PMI, US data from labor market, US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and FOMC minutes will determine pair’s further direction.

The main events of the day:
UK Services PMI – 11.30 (GMT +3)
US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change – 15.15 (GMT +3)
US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI – 17.00 (GMT +3)
US Crude Oil Inventories – 17.30 (GMT +3)
US FOMC Meeting Minutes – 21.00 (GMT +3)

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.0620 R. 1.0704
USDJPY S. 109.97 R. 111.31
GBPUSD S. 1.2375 R. 1.2527
USDCHF S. 0.9996 R. 1.0048
AUDUSD S. 0.7504 R. 0.7644
NZDUSD S. 0.6936 R. 0.7040
USDCAD S. 1.3327 R. 1.3493

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Thursday, April 6th

The EUR/USD pair came under strong selling pressure in early Europe, as the market aggressively reacted on dovish stance of ECB President M.Draghi, forcing the euro to lose all its yesterday’s gains. The euro received strong bearish impact across the market, as Draghi once again noted that EU inflation growth pace is still slow and reassessment of current monetary policy stance is not warranted at this stage, thereby sending the pair to refresh it 3-week lows at 1.0629 mark. Now all investors’ attention turns toward another key risky event of this Thursday - Chinese President Xi Jinping’s and US President Donald Trump’s meeting, where the main issues concerning future relationships of the countries will be discussed. Looking ahead, only secondary data reports will be released later this day, so traders will continue to digest recent ECB President M.Draghi’s speech.

The GBP/USD pair is consolidating its yesterday’s heavy gains, however, failing to sustain above the level of 1.2500. Yesterday the pair met fresh bids after UK released solid services PMI print, that allowed the pound to recover part of this week losses, witnessed after streak of disappointing macro data. Moreover, the pair received additional support, after FOMC meeting minutes reviled that the Committee is planning to reduce the balance sheet size this year, however, failing to provide any details on how it will be done. On the other hand, risk-off moods are still full of steam this Thursday, limiting the pair from its further gains somewhat, as all eyes now remain on US and Chinese presidents’ summit, which will begin later today. In the meantime, both dockets today will remain data-quiet, with only secondary tier releases from the US economy scheduled in NA session, so global market’s sentiments will stay as a key driver for the pair during this trading session.

The yen continues to stay bullish against its US competitor, emerging to biggest gainer in Asia, amid broadly based US dollar’s softness and ongoing risk aversion. Yesterday the pair came under strong selling pressure after FOMC failed to provide any clarity on its plans to reduce the balance sheet size this year, that drops a shadow on Fed’s hawkishness regarding its monetary policy tightening, thereby strongly weighing the dollar across the market. Moreover, the USD/JPY pair remains additionally pressured lately by strong risk-off sentiments, that are still gripping the market, providing the yen with extra support. Today amid data quiet session the Trump-XI Summit is expected to grab all the attention later this Thursday.

The AUD/USD pair fell sharply to its monthly lows, which are located at 0.7532 level, this morning, following disappointing Chinese fundamentals. Seems that AUD bears are totally ignoring broad USD softness, led yesterday’s FOMC minutes, that showed Committee members’ intention of trimming Fed balance sheet later this year. Moreover, the pair continues to stay pressured this morning, wobbling within striking distance of its recent lows, as increasing cautiousness ahead of Trump-Xi summit and ongoing softness in commodity market are limiting any pair’s chances to recover. On the data front, nothing important is scheduled in calendars from both sides, so traders will closely watch for any headlines regarding official meeting between leaders of the two largest economies in the world to set up further course of pair’s movement.

The main events of the day:
None

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.0607 R. 1.0717
USDJPY S. 109.97 R. 111.81
GBPUSD S. 1.2392 R. 1.2544
USDCHF S. 0.9974 R. 1.0114
AUDUSD S. 0.7540 R. 0.7600
NZDUSD S. 0.6912 R. 0.7008
USDCAD S. 1.3356 R. 1.3480

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[EEAnalytics]

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Friday, April 7th

This morning the USD/JPY pair fell to its nearly 2-week lows in wake of another sharp spike of risk aversion across the market. Today it became known that US President D.Trump ordered to strike Syrian airbase in response to Syria’s use of chemical weapons against civilians. In his official statement D.Trump called all civilized nations to seek for the end of slaughter and bloodshed in Syria. This crucial news triggered huge wave of risk-off sentiments, sending the pair to refresh its lows at 110.13, which were last seen only last Monday. At this moment the pair has managed to correct its positions, recovering part of its losses, as the dust around geopolitical tensions is slowly settling down, however, cautious state of the market will continue to cheer up safe-haven assets, such as the yen, ahead of crucial NFP report and the second round of the US-China Summit, which outcome has the potential to trigger a fresh wave of volatility across markets.

The EUR/USD pair is trading with a bearish bias at the end of this week, staying pressured, as the markets are still digesting Thursday’s ECB President M.Draghi’s message. Yesterday Draghi delivered a speech, in which he once again mentioned low inflation level in euro area, also adding that reassessment of current monetary policy is not reasonable at this stage. Moreover, seems that EUR bulls are totally ignoring global market’s risk-off trend, triggered by the US missile strike in Syria in response to Islamic state’s use of chemical weapons against civilians, failing to provide any support to the pair. Today all eyes will remain on much awaited the US NFP report, while US-China Summit will also stay in sight of traders, as its outcome will be able to shape market’s sentiments in short-term projection.

The GBP/USD pair remains pressured in the region of 1.2450 – 70 at the end of this week, having erased all its yesterday’s gains on the back of ongoing risk aversion. Latest headlines that the US bombed Syria after Islamic state engaged into a chemical attack against civilians, reignited strong risk-off sentiments, thereby weighing the pound. Furthermore, any recovery of the pair seems unlikely, as ongoing cautiousness in wake of the Trump-Xi Summit is also pressuring on higher-yielding GBP. Looking ahead, today we have heavy packed economic data calendar, with UK Manufacturing Production, M.Carney’s speech and crucial data from the US labor market, that will be able to determine pair’s further direction in upcoming day.

The AUD/USD pair accelerates its bearish momentum this Friday on the back of intensifying risk-off sentiments. Currently the pair is trading within striking distance of its monthly lows, located at 0.7522 spot, as news that the US bombed Syrian airbase, triggered huge wave of risk-off moods, driving flows away from higher-yielding assets, such as the Aussie. Moreover, increasing cautiousness in wake of the Trump-Xi Summit and slightly bearish tone around copper prices, seen lately, are also collaborating to pair’s bearish momentum. Today all traders’ attention will remain glued to the US crucial jobs report, that is expected to show positive numbers, as employment data from ADP, seen earlier this week, is cheering up investors’ expectations, while strong risk aversion will continue to rule global market’s sentiments during this trading session.

The main events of the day:
UK Manufacturing Production – 11.30 (GMT +3)
BoE Governor M.Carney’s speech – 12.00 (GMT +3)
US Nonfarm Payrolls – 15.30 (GMT +3)
US Unemployment Rate – 15.30 (GMT +3)
Canadian Employment Change – 15.30 (GMT +3)
BoC Governor S.Poloz’s speech – 17.00 (GMT +3)
Canadian Ivey PMI – 17.00 (GMT +3)

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.0596 R. 1.0708
USDJPY S. 109.89 R. 111.59
GBPUSD S. 1.2419 R. 1.2529
USDCHF S. 1.0006 R. 1.0088
AUDUSD S. 0.7507 R. 0.7595
NZDUSD S. 0.6942 R. 0.7002
USDCAD S. 1.3368 R. 1.3472

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[EEAnalytics]

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Monday, April 10th

The EUR/USD pair remains consolidative at the start of this week, keeping its positions within striking distance of its monthly lows, posted this morning at 1.0570 spot. Today the pair continues to extend its bearish bias, despite worse-then-expected NFP, seen last Friday, as general US Unemployment Rate ticked lower, showing that situation on the US labor market is not so bad, thereby broadly supporting US bulls. Moreover, improved risk-on sentiments, triggered by positive outcome of US-China Summit, where both leaders indicated on strong relationships between two largest economies of the world, are also providing some negative pressure on the pair at the start of this week. Today only Fed Chair J.Yellen’s speech will be able to bring some short-term trading opportunities, so the pair will keep tracing global market’s trend for any further directional improvements.

The GBP/USD pair has bounced off its multi week lows, posted at 1.2366, and now is trying to recover some ground, as bears have taken a breather after Friday’s massive rally amid slightly better risk-on tone. On Friday the pound came under strong selling pressure across the board after bloc of disappointing UK fundamentals, featuring Manufacturing Production and Retail Sales, significantly weighed the pair. Moreover, strong spike of demand for the US dollar, despite weak NFP data seen last trading session, also collaborated with pair’s recent decline. Nothing much is scheduled in data calendar for this Monday, except Fed Chair J.Yellen’s speech, that will be held in NA afternoon, so the pair will continue to follow global market’s sentiments to determine its further direction.

The yen was the worst performer of this Asia amid broad demand for the US dollar and better risk-on tone, based on positive outcome of the US-China Summit. On Friday leaders of the two largest economies remained satisfied with peaceful outcome of its two-day meeting, thereby boosting risk-on sentiments across the market. Additionally, the market remained unimpressed this morning by upbeat Japanese current account data, as the demand for the US currency continues to dominate on the market so far, limiting any yen’s chances to recover some ground. Now all traders’ focus remains on J.Yellen’s speech, that is scheduled on late NA session, but until then the pair will continue to stay influenced by broad RO-RO trend and USD price actions.

The AUD/USD pair corrects slightly higher this morning after its drop seen in Asia, based on broad bid tone around the greenback. Seems that US bulls remained resilient to weak Friday’s NFP numbers and now are pushing the pair to extend its retreat, refreshing nearly 3-month lows this morning at 0.7478 level. Moreover, the Aussie remains unable to benefit from improved sentiments around risk associated assets, as disappointing data from Australian housing market provided the pair with additional bearish impetus this morning. Looking ahead, today we have deadly quiet economic docket, thereby the USD price dynamics will remain as a key driving factor across the market, setting up pair’s further movement course.

The main events of the day:
Fed Chair J.Yellen speech – 23.10 (GMT +3)

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.0527 R. 1.0695
USDJPY S. 109.55 R. 112.11
GBPUSD S. 1.2291 R. 1.2517
USDCHF S. 0.9995 R. 1.0143
AUDUSD S. 0.7462 R. 0.7564
NZDUSD S. 0.6885 R. 0.7015
USDCAD S. 1.3303 R. 1.3481

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Tuesday, April 11th

The EUR/USD pair is consolidating its yesterday’s minor decline just a few pips below the 1.06 level, as US bulls remained unimpressed by recent J.Yellen’s speech. Last night, Fed Chairwoman delivered her speech, in which she once again noted, that it will be appropriate to raise rates in near future, but terms of further rate-hikes are highly dependent on economic performances. Moreover, renewed risk-aversion sentiments are providing some support to the common currency, limiting pair’s further losses. Now all traders’ attention is focused on German ZEW Economic Sentiment that is due next ahead of US JOLTs Job Openings, which both will be able to bring short-term impetus on the pair during this trading session.

The GBP/USD pair was trading in 20-pips narrow range around 1.2420 level through Asian session amid lack of any directional impetus, despite yesterday’s J.Yellen’s hawkish remarks on further Fed monetary policy tightening. However, seems that Fed Chairwoman’s comments appeared not hawkish enough to inspire USD bulls for any further upside momentum. On the other hand, broadly shrinking risk appetite is driving flows away from higher-yielding assets, negatively influencing the pound this Tuesday. Now immediate focus remains on the bloc of UK economic releases with CPI in a main role, while US JOLTs Job Openings data, will also be closely watched for any further momentum.

The USD/CAD pair has stalled its previous sessions fall and now is consolidating its positions in 1.3315-35 range. On Monday the pair performed a sharp downside rally, losing around a cent since yesterday’s highs, posted at 1.3426, on the back of strong increase in oil prices, that provided massive support to commodity-linked assets, such as the Loonie. However, currently the oil has also entered consolidation phase, failing to provide any additional momentum to the pair this Tuesday. On the other hand, the US dollar failed to gain any upside momentum against its major rivals, weighed by not hawkish enough Yellen’s speech, providing no chances for the pair to recover its positions. Today the US economy will release only JOLTs Job Openings report, so dynamics of the oil prices and the USD will remain as a key catalyst for the pair this Tuesday.

The dollar/yen pair seems to be extending its yesterday’s reversal from its weekly highs, marked yesterday at 111.57, and now is trading in the region of its session lows around 110.60-70. The pair came under renewed selling pressure, as yesterday’s spike of the demand for higher-yielding assets seems to be fading away, thereby boosting yen’s safe-haven status. Moreover, overnight’s remarks of Fed Chair J.Yellen, that once again indicated on additional rate actions, failed to provide the greenback with support, as Yellen hinted that there is no rush needed in further monetary policy tightening. With only JOLTs Job Openings data scheduled in economic docket for this Tuesday, the pair will most likely continue to follow global market’s sentiments for any further directional improvements.

The main events of the day:
JOLTs Job Openings – 17.00 (GMT +3)

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.0553 R. 1.0627
USDJPY S. 110.32 R. 111.88
GBPUSD S. 1.2338 R. 1.2466
USDCHF S. 1.0056 R. 1.0122
AUDUSD S. 0.7463 R. 0.7527
NZDUSD S. 0.6903 R. 0.6993
USDCAD S. 1.3254 R. 1.3460

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Wednesday, April 12th

The EUR/USD pair came out of its flat corridor, that was witnessed in Asian, and now is navigating in North direction, supported by strong risk aversion sentiments. Broad risk-off moods remain lately as a key driver across the market amid ongoing geopolitical concern, that is fueled by warn of North Korea of a nuclear strike if the US will continue to provoke it and readiness of the US for an additional airstrike if Syria once again uses chemical weapons on civilians. Moreover, the US dollar’s retreat against its main competitors is also collaborating with pair’s bullish momentum this Wednesday. Nothing important is scheduled in data calendar for this trading session, so the major currency pair will continue to get influenced by risk trends during the day ahead.

The yen remains well bid in the middle of this week, showing outstanding performances across the market and forcing the USD/JPY major to refresh its 5-month lows at 109.35 level, as strong risk-off sentiments amid ongoing geopolitical tension, are supporting the yen, as a safe-haven currency. Recently the market witnessed another spike of risk aversion, after North Korea warned of a nuclear strike should the US continue to provoke them, while the US stated that they are remaining prepared in case if Syria continues to use chemical weapons against civilians. Moreover, lower-than-expected Chinese inflation report added to the risk-off tone, thereby weighing the USD/JPY pair this morning. Today amid relatively eventless data calendar the pair will continue to follow global risk trend, that will keep influencing the market in short-term prospect.

The USD/CAD pair managed to defend its key support level of 1.33 and now is trading with slight bullish bias. Seems that the pair has mostly ignored broadly bullish sentiments around oil prices and slight weakness in the US dollar, as we are heading toward BOC interest decision, that is scheduled on NA session. It is widely expected that the CB will keep its interest rate unchanged at 0.5%, but in view of recent positive results of Canadian economy any hints on rate increase will be highly supportive to the Loonie. Besides BoC Monetary Policy outlook investors will also pay attention to Crude Oil Inventories, that will be able to bring additional impetus on the pair later during this trading session.

The GBP/USD pair is consolidating its yesterday’s gains in upper bound of its weekly range, following upbeat UK data, seen last trading session. Currently the pair is trading in extremely tight range of 15 pips near 1.2490 level, as renewed wave of risk-off sentiments amid ongoing geopolitical concerns is limiting any GBP gains. On the other hand, slight softness of the US dollar, witnessed during this week, is providing support to the pair. Now immediate focus shifts toward bloc of crucial data from UK labor market and BoE Governor M.Carney speech, that are scheduled on European trading session, while the US docket will remain relatively silent today, leaving the pair at the mercy of global market’s sentiments during NY trades.

The main events of the day:
UK Average Earnings Index +Bonus – 11.30 (GMT +3)
BoE Governot M.Carney speech – 11.30 (GMT +3)
UK Claimant Count Change – 11.30 (GMT +3)
BoC Interest Rate Decision – 17.00 (GMT +3)
US Crude Oil Inventories – 17.30 (GMT +3)
BoC Governor S.Poloz speech – 18.15 (GMT +3)

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.0552 R. 1.0656
USDJPY S. 108.70 R. 111.38
GBPUSD S. 1.2368 R. 1.2556
USDCHF S. 1.0036 R. 1.0112
AUDUSD S. 0.7455 R. 0.7535
NZDUSD S. 0.6912 R. 0.6990
USDCAD S. 1.3283 R. 1.3379

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[EEAnalytics]

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Friday, April 21st

The EUR/USD pair came out of its brief consolidation phase, seen in Asia, and now is moving in north direction on the back of positive German data. Yesterday the pair was unable to sustain its bullish momentum and fell back to its comfort region, located near 1.07 spot, following positive remarks of US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, who stated, that upcoming tax reforms will be implemented before the end of this year. However, the pair was able to gain a bullish momentum in early Europe in wake of upbeat results of flash German Manufacturing PMI. Meanwhile, the key risky event of this week for the pair remains Sunday’s first round of the French presidential election, that will determine pair’s further course. Seems that the market has already started to price in E.Macron’s win, who represents social liberal political party in France, thereby supporting the common currency. However, the gap between leader of this race (E.Macron) and his nearest opponent (M.Le Pen) remains very tight, so any headlines regarding further developments surrounding French presidential elections will be closely watched for any impact on the pair.

Today the GBP/USD pair continues to expand its decline from half year highs, posted at 1.2905 after surprising UK PM T.May announcement on Tuesday to call for a snap election. Yesterday the pair tried to correct some positions, but failed, breaking below the level of 1.27, amid renewed demand for the USD, following US Treasury Secretary S.Mnuchin’s optimistic comments regarding upcoming tax reforms. On the other hand, improved risk-on tone, backed by slight recovery in commodities, and renewed hopes of a “soft Brexit” are limiting pair’s retreat at the end of this week. Today we have quiet eventful trading session, with UK Retail Sales reports in Europe, and bloc of US fundamentals scheduled on NA session.

The NZD/USD pair has eased all its previous session’s gains and became one of the biggest outsiders of Thursday. Yesterday New Zealand published strong CPI report, which finally reached RBNZ’s inflation target level of 2% after five years, thereby providing the pair with strong bullish boost and lifting the major to its multi week highs. However, yesterday’s comments of US Treasury Secretary S.Mnuchin, that highly awaited Trump’s tax reforms are on the way, have reignited demand for the US currency, forcing the NZD/USD to fall back to its weekly lows, located at 0.6983 spot. On the other hand, slightly improved risk-on sentiments allowed the pair to bounce back above its psychological level of 0.70. Now all focus turns toward bloc of US fundamentals, with Existing Home Sales report in a main role, that is scheduled on upcoming NA session.

Today the AUD/USD pair managed to reverse part of its yesterday’s losses amid better risk-on tone across the market. Yesterday the pair received strong bullish momentum in wake of moderate recovery in commodities, however, the rally got out of steam straight away after US Treasury Secretary S.Mnuchin’s optimistic remarks on tax reforms, that forced the pair to ease all its previous gains. Now it seems that greenback’s rally has been stalled, allowing the market to take a breather, while slightly higher risk-on sentiments are also supporting the Aussie at the end of the week. Looking ahead, today investors will closely await for US fundamentals, that are scheduled on NA session, while market’s fickle moods regarding risky assets will keep influencing the pair this Friday.

The main events of the day:
UK Retail Sales – 11.30 (GMT +3)
Canadian Core CPI – 15.30 (GMT +3)
US Existing Home Sales – 17.00 (GMT +3)

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.0662 R. 1.0804
USDJPY S. 108.39 R. 109.95
GBPUSD S. 1.2734 R. 1.2884
USDCHF S. 0.9924 R. 1.0018
AUDUSD S. 0.7467 R. 0.7577
NZDUSD S. 0.6957 R. 0.7077
USDCAD S. 1.3430 R. 1.3518

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[EEAnalytics]

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Tuesday, April 25th

The EUR/USD pair was showing deadly quiet trades within 15-pips narrow range during the Asian session, consolidating Monday’s heavy gains near 1.0870 region. However, the pair broke out of its consolidation corridor in early Europe and now is navigating in north direction, as traders have started to price in E.Macron’s win on upcoming French presidential elections. Meanwhile, currently all investors’ attention shifts toward US president’s tax reform details, that will be announced on Wednesday, however, market’s participants believe that tomorrow’s announcement will once again provide lack of details on US economic taxation program, thereby lending no support to the greenback. Today only data reports from the US economy are scheduled in event calendar of this Tuesday, while nearest crucial events, such as tomorrow’s US president’s speech, Thursday’s ECB policy decision and French elections will continue to keep market cautious in the near future.

The GBP/USD pair extends its consolidation pattern for the fifth consecutive day so far, failing to build any gains on recent UK PM Theresa May’s announcement to call for a snap election on June 8th. Moreover, modest optimist around US president D.Trump’s upcoming “historical” tax reforms is also remaining unable to provide the greenback with enough impetus to recover its recent losses. Nevertheless, traders now await for details on US president’s taxation program, that will be announced later this week, and which expectedly will point to further US dollar’s trajectory. With another relatively empty UK docket, today traders will closely watch for US data releases, that will be able to bring some short-term impetus to the pair.

The USD/CAD pair caught some fresh bids this morning, extending its yesterday’s bearish rally and refreshing this year tops at 1.3562. Yesterday the Loonie came under strong selling pressure across the board on news that D.Trump’s administration is planning to impose 20% tariff on soft lumber imports from Canada. Such measures could potentially harm trade relations between North American neighbors. Adding to that, ongoing softness in oil prices is also collaborating with pair’s upside this Tuesday. Now focus shifts toward US fundamentals, featuring CB Consumer Confidence and New Home Sales, that will be able to bring fresh trading opportunities during the NY trading session.

The USD/JPY pair is trading on a firm note after yesterday’s drop, having recovered most part of previous session’s losses. Seems that risk-on rally, triggered by weekend’s French elections, is not over yet, still driving flows away from safe-haven assets, such as the yen. Moreover, ongoing talks around BOJ further easing measures in order to achieve inflation target level at 2% are also adding to yen’s retreat. However, uncertainty over Trump’s tax reforms, about which the US president promised to bring more details later this week, will keep the US dollar unmotivated today, however, Donald Trump’s positive outlook on further political and economic plans will be able to set up further direction for the US dollar. Looking ahead, today the pair most likely will continue to trace global market’s sentiments ahead of US data reports, that will shape up pair’s further directional course in NA session.

The main events of the day:
US CB Consumer Confidence – 17.00 (GMT +3)
US New Home Sales – 17.00 (GMT +3)

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.0780 R. 1.0946
USDJPY S. 109.08 R. 110.92
GBPUSD S. 1.2735 R. 1.2865
USDCHF S. 0.9858 R. 1.0028
AUDUSD S. 0.7517 R. 0.7609
NZDUSD S. 0.6984 R. 0.7066
USDCAD S. 1.3365 R. 1.3587

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Thursday, April 27th

Today the EUR/USD pair managed to recover part of its yesterday’s losses on the back of strong sell-off in the US dollar. Yesterday the dollar came under strong selling pressure against its main competitors, as the US tax reforms plan’s details, provided by D.Trump’s administration, once again left the market unimpressed, causing even more doubts on D.Trump’s ability to fulfill his promises. However, now the pair is trying to consolidate its recent recovery, as traders are gearing up for the ECB policy decision, that is scheduled on this Europe. Expectedly the Bank will keep its policy’s course in the same direction, while any comments regarding QE program and economic outlook adjustments will be able to shape up further EUR/USD pair’s trajectory. Also today the US economy will release fresh fundamentals, but reaction on it will be limited due to more important events, scheduled on this Thursday.

The USD/JPY pair barely reacted on uneventful BoJ meeting, held earlier this morning, stepping away from its overnight highs, posted at 111.40, to the region of 111.20. As it was widely expected the Bank kept its policy steady and its interest rate unchanged at its current level of -0.10%, however, revising its core inflation forecast lower as it also was expected. Moreover, today the pair will continue to retain its softer tone, led by Wednesday’s disappointment surrounding D.Trump’s much-awaited tax reforms. The tax announcement offered little surprise, as once again provided lack of any specific details regarding further US policy stance, thereby significantly weighing the greenback. Looking ahead, today traders will keep eyes on US macroeconomic releases, while ECB monetary policy decision will also be able to trigger a fresh bout of volatility across the market.

The USD/CAD pair came under intense selling pressure this Thursday, losing more than 100-pips from its recent 14-month highs, posted at 1.3647 during Asian trading session. The pair performed sharp reversal move this morning after the US President agreed not to terminate the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) at this time, strongly boosting demand for the Loonie. Moreover, broad weakness around the greenback, backed by Wednesday’s disappointment from Trump’s much-awaited tax reforms, is also collaborating with pair’s bearish trend. On the other hand, still persisting oil price weakness will limit any further pair’s decline. Now attention turns toward US economic releases due later in the NA session, while US dollar’s weakness will continue to remain as a main driver across the market.

The GBP/USD pair is trading with strong bullish bias this Thursday, extending its upside rally for the third session in a row. Today the pair broke through its key resistance level of 1.2900 in early Europe, as markets are still digesting US administration’s failure to provide any details on the US tax reforms plan. Moreover, seems that optimism around the pound, led by the UK PM Theresa May’s announcement to call for a snap election on June 8th, is still being a key factor that is navigating the pair lately. Now focus shifts toward US macroeconomic releases, featuring Core Durable Goods Orders and Pending Home Sales, while ECB monetary policy decision might also have some impact on the pair.

The main events of the day:
ECB Interest Rate Decision – 14.45 (GMT +3)
US Core Durable Goods Orders – 15.30 (GMT +3)
ECB Press Conference – 15.30 (GMT +3)
US Pending Home Sales – 17.00 (GMT +3)

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.0808 R. 1.0998
USDJPY S. 110.31 R. 112.15
GBPUSD S. 1.2779 R. 1.2932
USDCHF S. 0.9888 R. 0.9990
AUDUSD S. 0.7396 R. 0.7590
NZDUSD S. 0.6822 R. 0.6990
USDCAD S. 1.3516 R. 1.3674

Your European ECN-broker,
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[EEAnalytics]

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Wednesday, May 3rd

The EUR/USD pair came out of its consolidation range in early Europe, and now is losing positions, eyeing to retake its resistance at 1.0900. Pair’s sell-off could be mainly attributed to stalled US dollar’s retreat and its slight correction across the board. On the other hand, further pair’s downside remains unlikely, as investors are gearing up for one of the risky events of this week - FOMC decision, that is scheduled on NA afternoon. It is widely expected that the Regulator will keep status quo on its interest rate, while any remarks from FOMC members on further Fed’s monetary policy tightening will be able to shape up further greenback’s mid-term trajectory. Also traders are cheering up the euro ahead of the final vote of the French presidential election, where centrist Emmanuel Macron continues to stay as a clear favorite. Besides FOMC Statement, today the US economy will also release bloc of fundamental reports, including ADP jobs report and ISM non-manufacturing PMI, that will provide short-term directional impetus during NA session.

Seems that the NZD/USD pair was unable to retain its overnight gains, as US bulls are trying to retake control over the pair. In Asia the pair refreshed its six-day highs, marked at 0.6968 spot, after New Zealand showed excellent results on its labor market. However, by the time of writing the pair has eased most part of its gains, as mild recovery of the greenback has forced the pair to retake its 0.6930-40 range. Moreover, renewed risk aversion ahead of FOMC monetary policy decision is also collaborating with pair’s recent retreat. Looking ahead, today traders will focus on US fundamentals, that are scheduled on NA trading session, while FOMC decision will hog the limelight in NY afternoon.

The Aussie was the worst performer of the Asian trading session, allowing the AUD/USD pair to lose more than 60 pips since its overnight tops, as tumbling commodities are weighing on Australian currency. Seems that yesterday’s weak Chinese Manufacturing PMI is still suppressing the commodity market, especially copper, thereby negatively influencing the AUD/USD pair and sending it to refresh its weekly lows at 0.7486 level. Moreover, slight correction of the buck and renewed risk-off trend, backed by the upcoming Fed Interest Rate Decision, are also adding some bearish pressure on the pair this Wednesday. Next of note for the major remains the US dataflow, featuring ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and pre-NFP jobs data, that will be reported ahead of the FOMC decision.

The GBP/USD pair came under strong selling pressure this morning, losing more than 50 points since its overnight highs and refreshed its daily lows below the level 1.2900. On Wednesday the pound received strong bearish impetus, following recent EU leaders’ announcement that UK PM Theresa May will be prevented from joining Brexit terms discussion. This statement contradicts with Mrs.May’s intentions to personally negotiate Brexit, about which she talked during her last speech. Now immediate focus shifts toward UK Construction PMI, while US ADP jobs report and ISM services PMI, due to be released later during NA session, will also have significant impact on the spot ahead of the Fed meeting’s outcome.

The main events of the day:
UK Construction PM – 11.30 (GMT +3)
US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change – 15.15 (GMT +3)
US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI – 17.00 (GMT +3)
US Crude Oil Inventories – 17.30 (GMT +3)
Fed Interest Rate Decision – 21.00 (GMT +3)

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.0873 R. 1.0961
USDJPY S. 111.49 R. 112.55
GBPUSD S. 1.2838 R. 1.2988
USDCHF S. 0.9879 R. 0.9981
AUDUSD S. 0.7488 R. 0.7580
NZDUSD S. 0.6887 R. 0.6963
USDCAD S. 1.3596 R. 1.3812

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Daily economic digest from Forex.eeStay informed of the key economic events

Monday, May 8th

Today France continues to celebrate Emmanuel Macron’s win in the presidential election with 63.85% of votes against his far-right opponent Marine Le Pen, who gained 36.15% of votes, thereby supporting the Euro across the market. During his speech, Macron stated, that he will work to “rebuild links between Europe and its citizens”, that clearly shows his intentions regarding further cooperation with the EU. Today the EUR/USD pair opened with strong bullish gap above its psychological mark 1.1000, that is the highest level since November 2016. However, the pair failed to sustain its gains and dropped to the region of 1.0960, as Macron’s win in the election was highly expected and traders had already priced in such outcome. Today only secondary data releases are scheduled for this trading session, so the pair will continue to follow global market’s trend to set up its further direction.

The AUD/USD pair was showing offered tone in Asia, having refreshed its daily lows at 0.7386, as Australian economy provided investors with horrible data from its housing market. On the other hand, following upbeat Chinese Trade Balance has reignited some bids around the Aussie, forcing the pair to change its direction and reach the mark of 0.7416 at the European opening. Looking ahead, today the pair most probably will continue to trade under bearish pressure, as “Macron Trade”, which was favoring risk-on trend, is fading, while investors are still digesting Friday’s positive data from the US labor market. In the data front, both economies will keep silence at the start of this week, so broad market’s sentiments will keep navigating the pair during this trading session.

The USD/CAD is consolidating its Friday’s sharp reversal from its 14-month highs, following recovery in oil prices. At the end of the last week the pair came under strong selling pressure, stepping away from its recent tops, marked at 1.3793 spot, as traders locked in some profits after oil price bounced off its half-year lows, that led to pair’s 150-pips drop, despite positive NFP numbers. However, prospects of Fed rate-hike in June are slowly gathering pace, thereby limiting pair’s further decline. Looking ahead, today nothing noteworthy is scheduled in data calendar from both neighbors, so the pair will keep tracing global market’s trend and oil prices’ actions to determine its further course.

The GBP/USD pair failed to sustain its positions, posted in 1.2990 region during the Asian session, which was last seen in September 2016, as traders took some profits off the table after strong upside rally, witnessed last week. However, the pair managed to retake its bullish tone, as investors are gearing up for another bloc of crucial events of this week – BoE Interest Rate Decision and BoE Inflation Report, that will be announced this Thursday. On the other hand, mild US dollar’s correction and improving prospects of Fed rate hike in June, which are additionally supported by recent positive data from the US labor market, are weighing the pair at the start of this week. Today we have quiet data session with only secondary reports from both sides scheduled in it, so the pair will continue to follow global market’s sentiments during this Monday.

The main events of the day:
None

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.0928 R. 1.1034
USDJPY S. 111.80 R. 113.24
GBPUSD S. 1.2868 R. 1.3036
USDCHF S. 0.9827 R. 0.9923
AUDUSD S. 0.7343 R. 0.7461
NZDUSD S. 0.6835 R. 0.6967
USDCAD S. 1.3542 R. 1.3844

Your European ECN-broker,
Forex.ee

[EEAnalytics]

Daily economic digest from Forex.eeStay informed of the key economic events

Thursday, May 11th

The NZD/USD pair slumped to its 11-month lows, marked at 0.6818 in early Asian hours, following RBNZ decision to leave its official cash rate at its record low level of 1.75%. Furthermore, cautious speech of RNZB governor G.Wheeler also added some pressure on the Kiwi, where head of the Bank noted that interest rate could be increased only if inflation shows better growing pace, but adding that right now the Bank does not see any prospects of a further rapid move in inflation. However, the NZD/USD pair managed to recover some pips during the Asian trading session, as better risk-on sentiments and ongoing recovery of oil prices, fueled by bullish EIA inventory report, provided the pair with much needed relief. Now focus shifts on the US PPI report, that will be released in NA session, while the market will continue to digest recent crucial event, thereby adjusting further course for the pair.

Today the GBP/USD pair is showing low volatility level, as traders gear up for crucial BOE events, ignoring better tone of the US dollar. The pair is trading in 20-pips narrow range this Thursday, consolidating its positions in the region of 1.2940, ahead of BoE quarterly Inflation Report and its Interest Rate Decision, that are scheduled on European afternoon. Expectedly that the Bank will keep its monetary policies stance unchanged at today’s meeting, while any comments regarding further economic projections or monetary policy easing measures (since the latest economic reports of UK were not so optimistic) could set up next directional move for the pair. Besides UK crucial events, the US docket will also bring some data releases, however, the reaction on them will be silenced, considering importance of possible changes in British economy.

Seems that US bulls took a breather this morning, allowing the EUR/USD pair to recover from its yesterday’s lows, posted at 1.0853 in response to better sentiments around the greenback. Yesterday the pair faced strong selling pressure, unable to keep its position within 1.09 level, as improved prospects of a June Fed rate hike are still dominating the market, thereby broadly supporting the US dollar. Adding to that, dovish comments of ECB President M.Draghi, delivered yesterday, are also negatively influencing the pair this Thursday. The head of the CB said that it is too early to talk about a full recovery of the Eurozone economy, hinting that rush in rate increase or QE program tapering is inappropriate at the moment. Looking ahead, today traders will await for EU economic forecasts and the US PPI report for fresh impetus, while crucial events, scheduled in UK calendar, might also bring additional volatility to the major currency pair.

The USD/JPY pair is continuing to trade within striking distance of its 2-monht highs, posted at 114.38 earlier in Asia in wake of broadly stronger US currency. Recently increased prospects of a June Fed rate hike are still navigating the market, providing the buck with significant support across the board. Moreover, slightly improved investors’ appetite for higher-yielding instruments is also driving flows away from safe-haven assets, such as the Japanese Yen. Later during the day, bloc of the US data, featuring PPI report and several second tier releases, will be closely watched for short-term trading impetus, while outcome of the UK interest rate decision will also serve as an additional catalyst for the pair.

The main events of the day:
UK Manufacturing Production – 11.30 (GMT +3)
BoE Inflation Report – 14.00 (GMT +3)
BoE Interest Rate Decision – 14.00 (GMT +3)
US PPI – 15.30 (GMT +3)

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.0828 R. 1.0918
USDJPY S. 113.34 R. 114.84
GBPUSD S. 1.2889 R. 1.3011
USDCHF S. 1.0031 R. 1.0123
AUDUSD S. 0.7308 R. 0.7422
NZDUSD S. 0.6861 R. 0.6983
USDCAD S. 1.3592 R. 1.3762

Your European ECN-broker,
Forex.ee