Forex.ee: Daily economic news digest

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Daily economic digest from Forex.eeStay informed of the key economic events

Tuesday, May 16th

The EUR/USD pair accelerated its upside traction in early Europe, keeping its bullish trend for the third consecutive session. Significant growth of the pair can be mainly attributed to ongoing broadly based US dollar’s softness, that was caused by fading chances of a June Fed rate hike, following a series of downbeat US economic data. However, the probability that the Fed will increase its rate on June meeting is still high, that is limiting further dollar’s decline. Currently chances that the Fed will take monetary policy tightening measures in June are approximately 74%, that is well above 60% which the Fed would like to see before increasing the rate. Now immediate focus shifts to the German ZEW Economic Sentiment report and block of macroeconomic indicators from Eurozone, while data scheduled in the US data calendar will also be able to bring some short-term opportunities to investors during NA session.

Today the GBP/USD pair keeps its positive tone, having refreshed its today’s highs at 1.2930 spot, as markets are pricing in positive numbers of UK CPI report. It is expected, that today Britain’s inflation will show positive results, which will be higher than the Bank of England’s 2% target. In case of better inflation’s growing pace, the regulator usually responds with interest rate increase, however, during its last meeting the BoE made it clear that at the moment it does not see the need to raise its refi rate in the near future. Adding to that, persistent US dollar’s weakness, induced by lowered odds of Fed rate hike on June meeting, is also supporting the pair this Tuesday. However, further upside looks fragile, as risk-off sentiments are still gripping the market, pressuring on the higher-yielding assets, such as the pound. Besides the UK CPI report, today data from the US economy will also take place and will be released later during NA session.

Today the AUD/USD pair continues to trade with bullish bias for the fifth session in a row, however, having met fresh offers at this session’s highs, marked at 0.7435 handle, after RBA Meeting Minutes provided no hints on Bank’s monetary policy stance changes for the foreseeable future. Nevertheless, the meeting minutes showed that the Bank has revised its inflation projection upward, expecting it to rise to 2% by early 2018. Additionally, shrinking risk appetite is also providing some negative pressure on higher yielding assets, such as the Aussie. On the other hand, the pair managed to reverse most part of its early losses, as ongoing US dollar’s softness is remaining as a key driver across the market. Now all traders’ attention is focused on the US data pack, that will be released in NA session and will be able to bring some volatility across the market.

The USD/JPY was unable to hold its yesterday gains and came under renewed selling pressure, refreshing its daily lows at 113.27, amid fresh bout of risk aversion sentiments, that was the main theme during Asian trading session. Today brief pause on commodity market, after significant rally of oil prices, and cautious RBA Meeting Minutes triggered some nervousness across the market, that positively affected safe-haven assets, including the yen. Moreover, seems that the dollar is still suffering from Friday’s dismal retail sale and inflation data, that is also collaborating with pair’s retreat. Looking ahead, today the US economy will release data bloc, including housing market and industrial production reports, that will be closely eyed for fresh directional impetus during NA session.

The main events of the day:
UK CPI – 11.30 (GMT +3)
German ZEW Economic Sentiment – 12.00 (GMT +3)
US Building Permits – 15.30 (GMT +3)

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.0895 R. 1.1029
USDJPY S. 112.84 R. 114.32
GBPUSD S. 1.2840 R. 1.2966
USDCHF S. 0.9919 R. 1.0041
AUDUSD S. 0.7351 R. 0.7477
NZDUSD S. 0.6813 R. 0.6951
USDCAD S. 1.3532 R. 1.3772

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Wednesday, May 17th

Having faced resistance in the area of 1.1120 level, the EUR/USD pair pulled back slightly, as bulls seems to be exhausted after 4-day northern rally. Today the pair refreshed its half-year tops at 1.1122 spot, which is the highest level since the US Presidential election, as ongoing sell-off of the greenback continues to navigate the market as of late. Moreover, recently the US currency came under renewed selling pressure after it became known, that US President D.Trump disclosed secret information to Russian diplomats, thereby providing additional support to the pair. On the data front, today the Eurozone will publish final CPI figures for the last month, while the US docket will release only secondary data reports, so the pair will keep following global market’s sentiments during the NA trading session to determine its further direction.

The dollar/yen pair remains under intense selling pressure this Wednesday, refreshing its 8-day lows at 112.35 spot, as renewed wave of risk-off sentiments approached the market. Today bearish sentiments surrounding the pair were mostly intensified by political warries, following recent headlines that D.Trump shared classified information with Russian officials at a meeting last week. As a result, risk aversion returned to the markets, which in its turn increased demand for safe-haven assets, including Japanese currency. Adding to that, seems that US dollar continues to suffer from decreased prospects of Fed rate hike in June meeting, following set of lackluster US macro reports, that is also collaborating with pair’s decline. Today nothing noteworthy is scheduled in both economic calendars, so global market’s sentiments, driven by persistent weakness of the US dollar, and broad RO-RO trend will continue to determine pair’s further development course.

Today the GBP/USD pair once again dropped to the region of 1.2900 after brief correction from its last session’s lows. Yesterday the pair failed keep its positions and dipped below the level of 1.2900, despite better-than-expected UK inflation figures. However, the pound managed to recover part of its losses during Asian trading hours amid ongoing US dollar’s softness, while taking some pressure from broad risk aversion sentiments, triggered by fresh concerns over the US political scenario. However, the upside lost momentum in early Europe, as US bears took a breather, sending the pair toward the region of 1.2900. Now traders are awaiting for data set from the UK labor market, while the US economic calendar will remain silent during this Wednesday, leaving the pair at the mercy of global market’s sentiments in NA session.

The CAD/USD pair reversed most part of its overnight losses, retaking the level of 1.3600 this morning. The pair apparently lost its overnights downside momentum and returned above the level of 1.3600, as the greenback stalled its retreat against its main competitors in early Europe. Adding to this, a mild pullback in oil prices, triggered by Tuesday’s API red numbers, that showed increase in oil inventories, is also collaborating with pair’s recent recovery. Looking ahead, today both economies will publish only secondary data reports, so Crude Oil Inventories by the EIA will hog the limelight in NA session.

The main events of the day:
UK Average Earnings Index +Bonus – 11.30 (GMT +3)
UK Claimant Count Change – 11.30 (GMT +3)
EU CPI – 12.00 (GMT +3)
US Crude Oil Inventories – 17.30 (GMT +3)

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.0925 R. 1.1175
USDJPY S. 112.41 R. 114.13
GBPUSD S. 1.2821 R. 1.3005
USDCHF S. 0.9772 R. 1.0008
AUDUSD S. 0.7377 R. 0.7461
NZDUSD S. 0.6840 R. 0.6928
USDCAD S. 1.3528 R. 1.3696

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Friday, May 19th

The EUR/USD pair broke out of its consolidation corridor in early Europe to the upside, as the greenback seems to have resumed its weekly downside after its recent moderate rebound. Yesterday the pair slightly corrected after its 4-day bullish rally and consolidated its brief retreat on the back of greenback’s attempt to recover its position across the market. Adding to the USD weakness, today investors are digesting latest headlines on D.Trump’s budget release, which is scheduled on next Tuesday and does not look very realistic in the opinion of the market. Nothing much is scheduled in data calendar for this Friday, so broad market’s sentiments, based on US dollar’s price dynamics, will continue to determine pair’s further direction.

The AUD/USD pair is trading today near upper bound of its consolidation pattern, having posted a daily high at 0.7428 and low at 0.7407. Yesterday the Aussie failed to hold its positions, gained after positive data from labor market, as broad risk-off trend was a key driver across the market. However, the pair managed to recover some pips in Asia, as the US dollar apparently failed to extend its correction and stepped lower against its main competitors. Adding to that, returned optimism in oil prices has reignited better tone around higher-yielding assets, thereby supporting Australian bulls. Looking ahead, the economic calendar of this Friday remains empty, so the pair will continue to trace global markets sentiments at the end of this week to determine its further direction.

The GBP/USD pair follows global markets trend and is consolidating its position within 15-pips range near the mid-1.2900s after volatile trade, seen during last trading session. Yesterday the pair managed to refresh its multi-month highs above its psychological resistance of 1.3000 on the back of surprisingly strong UK Retail Sales data. However, the Cable was unable to retain its positions and crashed to its yesterday’s lows, marked at 1.2890 spot, in NY afternoon with no reasonable explanation. Nevertheless, the spike was short lived and the pair corrected higher to its comfort zone, as the greenback stalled its recovery. Today nothing noteworthy is scheduled in data calendar, so global market’s sentiments will remain as a key driver for the pair at the last working day of the week.

The USD/JPY pair is trading with bearish bias today, however, remaining above the 111.00 handle. Yesterday the pair managed to recover part of its losses, stepping away from its nearly 4-week lows, posted at 110.24, on the back of improved risk-on sentiments somewhat. However, the situation can soon change, as nervousness ahead of Trump’s budget release, which is scheduled for next week, is gathering pace, thereby cheering up sentiments around the safe-haven assets. Adding to that, weaker sentiments around the dollar continues to navigate the market at the last working day of the week, providing extra bearish pressure on the pair this Friday. Looking ahead, we have no relevant economic data on the cards today, so broad market’s trend will continue navigating the major at the end of this week.

The main events of the day:
CAD Core CPI – 15.30 (GMT +3)
CDACore Retail Sales – 15.30 (GMT +3)

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1020 R. 1.1212
USDJPY S. 109.64 R. 112.64
GBPUSD S. 1.2798 R. 1.3118
USDCHF S. 0.9728 R. 0.9858
AUDUSD S. 0.7373 R. 0.7489
NZDUSD S. 0.6848 R. 0.6974
USDCAD S. 1.3525 R. 1.3707

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Monday, May 22nd

The EUR/USD pair extended its consolidation pattern of 15-pips into early Europe, however, remaining near lower bound of its trading corridor just below 1.1200 on the back of mild recovery of the dollar against its main competitors, witnessed this morning. Last week the greenback came under strong selling pressure amid political uncertainty in the US and decreasing prospects of June Fed rate hike. However, the probability that the Fed will take monetary policy tightening measures at its next meeting is back near 80%, thereby providing some relief to the US currency. Looking ahead, today the economic data calendar will remain silent, so US dollar’s price actions will continue to determine pair’s further steps.

Today the GBP/USD opened with moderate bearish gap and refreshed daily lows in the 1.2980 region, following latest headlines on Brexit developments. Concerns over “hard Brexit” re-emerged over the weekend, after UK PM T.May and Brexit minister D.Davis threatened to quit Brexit negotiations if UK faces “divorce bill” of a EUR 100 billion. However, earlier PM Theresa T.May has already suggested that ‘money paid in the past’ should be taken into account in the final figures. It is also worth adding, that Brexit negotiations should start on June 19. Moreover, mild recovery of the US dollar and shrinking risk appetite are also collaborating with pair’s downside at the beginning of the week. Nothing noteworthy is scheduled in data calendar for this Monday, so USD price dynamics and developments surrounding Brexit negotiations will remain as key drivers at the start of this week.

The AUD/USD pair remained offered through Asian session, easing part of its Friday’s strong gains, on the back of another attempt of the greenback to recover part of its major losses. Seems that US bulls are trying today to retake control over the pair, sending it to the region 0.7450. However, further downside of the pair remains fragile, as market turns cautious ahead of D.Trump’s budget release, which is scheduled on this Tuesday. On the other hand, re-emerged risk-off sentiments, backed by N.Korean missile test, are driving flows away from higher yielding assets, including the Aussie. Adding to that, slightly weaker sentiments on the commodity market and especially around the copper are also negatively influencing the Australian currency as of late. In absence of any economic release, today the pair will follow USD price dynamics, which is largely driven by expectations of a June Fed rate hike, at the start of this working week.

The USD/JPY pair stalled its Asian recovery and stepped away some pips lower in early Europe, as shrinking risk appetite navigates the market this Monday. Weekend’s news of a launch of mid-range ballistic missile by North Korea, have reignited risk-aversion trend across the market, thereby lending some support on safe-haven assets, such as the yen. However, red numbers of the Japanese Trade Balance report and overnight’s attempt of the US dollar to recover its positions across the market provided stronger support the pair this morning. With no relevant data release for the pair this Monday, traders will set up their attention on upcoming US President D.Trump’s budget plan release, while broader risk trend and US dollar’s price actions will navigate the pair through this Monday.

Important events of the day:
None

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1055 R. 1.1287
USDJPY S. 110.65 R. 111.99
GBPUSD S. 1.2872 R. 1.3118
USDCHF S. 0.9665 R. 0.9833
AUDUSD S. 0.7380 R. 0.7506
NZDUSD S. 0.6856 R. 0.6972
USDCAD S. 1.3439 R. 1.3645

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Thursday, May 25th

The EUR/USD pair keeps its positive trend this Thursday, trading within striking distance of its daily highs, marked at 1.1242 spot, on the back of broad USD softness. Heaving taken a short breather in the second half of the Asian session, the pair continued its upside traction towards the level of 1.1250, as the greenback is suffering from cautious tone of FOMC Meeting Minutes, which were released yesterday. The Committee was again unable to provide any details regarding its further actions, stressing that it needs little bit more fundamentals to make sure that recent pullback in the US economy was temporary. Thus, the Fed has put doubts on further aggressive monetary policy tightening measures, lowering probability of two more rate hikes in 2017 from 50% to 46%. Further today only secondary data reports will be released, which will have limited impact, so the pair will continue to follow global market’s trend to determine its further directional move.

The USD/CAD pair continues to trade in bearish trend today, following yesterday’s uneventful BoC Interest Rate Decision and FOMC Meeting Minutes. The BoC left its refi rate unchanged at 0.5% in line with market’s expectations, however, stressing that the current monetary policy fully corresponds to the economic situation. In general, the policy statement sounded quite hawkish, what could be perceived as a hint on further BoC rate hike. As a result, the pair received strong bearish impetus, losing more than a cent from its pre-decision area, located near 1.3530 level. Moreover, further bearish tone of the pair was additionally supported by sluggish FOMC minutes, which failed to lend any support to the greenback against its main peers. And finally, today oil prices staged a solid comeback from its yesterday’s lows, also contributing to further decline of the pair. Looking ahead, today we have quiet empty data session, so the pair will continue to trade under influence of the global market’s trend during this trading session.

In the second half of the week, the pound feels more confident and the GBP/USD pair is currently eyeing to retake its psychological level of 1.3000. The pair is growing for the second consecutive session amid ongoing sell-off in the US dollar, having recovered from its last session’s lows, marked in the region of 1.2920. Yesterday the greenback once again came under selling pressure after release of FOMC minutes, which failed to provide anything new and hence disappointed markets. Moreover, ongoing positive trend in oil prices is cheering up risk appetite, thereby supporting higher-yielding GBP today. Now focus shifts toward preliminary UK GDP data, which is the only important event of this day, therefore, further pair’s price actions will be determined by broad market’s sentiments.

Today the dollar/yen pair is trading on a firm note, recovering its losses after significant drop, witnessed during the last NA session. Yesterday the pair once again dropped below level 112.00 on the back of disappointing FOMC minutes, as it failed to provide any details regarding further Fed’s monetary policy tightening measures and hence sending the US dollar lower across the board. However, the pair gained some bullish traction during Asian session on Thursday and recovered part of yesterday’s losses, as risk-on sentiments weighed on Japanese Yen’s safe-haven status, therefore providing support to the pair. Nothing noteworthy is scheduled in data calendar for this Thursday, so USD price dynamics and prevalent risk trend will remain as key determinants for the pair during this trading session.

The main events of the day:
UK GDP – 11.30 (GMT +3)

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1151 R. 1.1253
USDJPY S. 111.03 R. 112.35
GBPUSD S. 1.2894 R. 1.3040
USDCHF S. 0.9697 R. 0.9793
AUDUSD S. 0.7419 R. 0.7549
NZDUSD S. 0.6961 R. 0.7101
USDCAD S. 1.3316 R. 1.3584

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Tuesday, May 30th

The EUR/USD pair extends its downside trend for the fourth session in a row, having dropped to its 7-day lows on the back of recent news of Greek debt troubles. Earlier, the German newspaper Bild reported on the possible intention of the Greek government not to pay the next payment if creditors do not ease its debt load. Thus, Greece actually put a new ultimatum to the creditors, which shows that if there is no any debt relief, there will be no payment for debt recovery either. Moreover, yesterday the market reacted quite negatively on uneventful ECB president M.Draghi’s speech, in which he once again stressed that Eurozone’s economy shows solid recovery, while inflation remains subdued. However, the pair managed to bounce off its recent lows in early Europe, as risk-off rally remains at its full swing lending some support to the common currency. Today EU calendar will provide the market with secondary data reports only, while the US will release CB Consumer Confidence, so further developments surrounding Greek situation will continue to navigate the pair this Tuesday.

The GBP/USD pair continues to stay under negative pressure amid growing tensions surrounding the UK election. Pressure on the GBP began after the release of results of recent opinion polls, which showed that the Labor party continues to reduce the distance with the leader of the election race - May’s Conservatives party. According to the latest information, the Conservative Party is leading with the result of 43%, while the Labor Party has already scored 37%. Moreover, broad risk-off sentiments, triggered by latest Greek default news, are also collaborating with pair’s decline this Tuesday. Looking ahead, today UK economic calendar remains data dry, leaving the pair at the mercy of global market’s trend in European hours, while the US will release CB Consumer Confidence and set of secondary reports, which will be able to keep investors busy during NA trading session.

The AUD/USD pair keeps its downside trend since last Thursday, having refreshed today its 7-day lows at 0.7416, as numerous factors are weighing the Aussie in the second half of this week. Today huge wave of risk-aversions approached the market on the back of renewed worries around Greece’s financial situation, while investors continue to stay cautious ahead of the UK general election. Adding to this, softer tone in commodities, especially in copper, and ongoing bullishness of the greenback are also adding some negative pressure on the pair lately. However, better-than-expected data from Australian labor market, seen this morning, was able to provide some support to the pair, sending it away from its recent lows. Now investors shift their attention on bloc of the US macroeconomic data, featuring CB Consumer Confidence, scheduled on NA session, while broad risk-off trend will continue to navigate the pair during European trading hours.

After reaching its historical high at 2736.58 spot, the BTC/USD pair slumped for more than 1000 dollars to the level of 1710.91 in the second half of the last week, as the pair corrected lower after enormous bullish rally lasted for the last couple of weeks. However, the cryptocurrency regained its bullish momentum on Monday, and by the moment of writing was trading around the level of 2250.00. The downside correction of the pair was quite short lived, so most likely, it was just a profit taking actions after huge gains of the bitcoin and now we are awaiting for extension of a bullish trend of the cryptocurrency.

The main events of the day:
CB Consumer Confidence – 17.00 (GMT +3)

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1142 R. 1.1198
USDJPY S. 110.94 R. 111.62
GBPUSD S. 1.2772 R. 1.2882
USDCHF S. 0.9716 R. 0.9802
AUDUSD S. 0.7415 R. 0.7461
NZDUSD S. 0.7008 R. 0.7110
USDCAD S. 1.3410 R. 1.3488

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[EEAnalytics]

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Friday, June 2nd

The EUR/USD pair extends its yesterday’s mildly bullish trend into the European session, as the greenback remains broadly subdued this Friday. Seems that US bulls took a breather after upbeat ADP employment data, while awaiting all-important US labor market report. In fact, positive ADP report, released yesterday, left doors opened for another positive surprise from today’s data, which in its turn could fuel broad market’s expectations of Fed monetary policy tightening at its next meeting in June. Looking ahead, nothing noteworthy is scheduled in the European docket, so traders will remain in anticipation for crucial data from the US labor market, which will be able to set up pair’s further directional move.

The GBP/USD pair was consolidating its yesterday’s gains throughout the Asian session, led by positive UK manufacturing data, however remaining near the lower bound of its trading range. Seems that the pair has mostly ignored yesterday’s impressive ADP report, which hinted on better results of crucial NFP data due for release later today. Expectedly the pair will continue trading without clear direction during European hours, as the market is still digesting latest UK opinion polls, which showed narrowing lead of Conservatives versus the Labor party, thereby increasing nervousness among investors, as there is less than a week left before the UK general elections. Besides crucial data from the US labor market, today UK will release Construction PMI data, which will also be closely watched for any directional impetus on the pair.

The dollar/yen pair is trading within a narrow range of 15-pips near 111.60 region, consolidating its overnight’s strong gains. The pair staged a solid comeback from its two-week lows, marked at 110,48 this Wednesday, additionally supported by strong ADP report, which increased odds that today’s key NFP data will also exceed markets expectations. Meanwhile, the decent NFP data can strengthen odds of a Fed rate hike in June that can additionally boost the US dollar against its main competitors. Today investor’s attention will remain glued to US monthly employment details, which will be able to set up pair’s next short-term directional move.

Seems that the BTC/USD pair recovered its bullish mode and now confidently moves upward after huge correction, seen last week. The virtual currency refreshed its historical high at the level of 2736.58 on May 25 before dipping to 1710.10 spot, as traders decided to lock in some profit. By the moment of writing, the bitcoin was trading at 2328.30 handle, having recovered most part of its losses. Renewed upside of the cryptocurrency can be partly attributed to recent headlines that major Chinese Bitcoin exchanges have resumed withdrawals of the cryptocurrency after nearly a four-month ban form that followed by increased scrutiny from the central bank. Moreover, Bloomberg published finance report, which shows that Ethereum could take top place among other virtual currencies, outperforming Bitcoin, by the end of 2018. Recently the market capitalization of Bitcoin has stepped over the mark of $40 billion, while Ethereum is currently taking the second place with $20 billion of the market cap.

The main events of the day:
UK Construction PMI – 12.00 (GMT +3)
Nonfarm Payrolls – 15.30 (GMT +3)
US Unemployment Rate – 15.30 (GMT +3)

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1168 R. 1.1278
USDJPY S. 110.29 R. 112.01
GBPUSD S. 1.2788 R. 1.2960
USDCHF S. 0.9643 R. 0.9755
AUDUSD S. 0.7318 R. 0.7482
NZDUSD S. 0.7039 R. 0.7099
USDCAD S. 1.3449 R. 1.3561

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Wednesday, June 7th

The EUR/USD pair remains offered so far this session, refreshing its daily lows at 1.1246, as investors are refraining from placing any directional bets ahead of the key political and economic risky events. The UK general election and ECB monetary policy decision are the main events of the week, which will be highly influential for the pair, as the market believes that ECB may appear dovish on its policy stance, while the UK general election will provide more hints on a divorce deal between the UK and EU. Amid absence of any fundamental releases from both economies, the pair will likely keep its cautious tone today, while any sharp moves of the euro cross with the pound could bring some correlational impetus this Wednesday.

The Australian dollar extends its winning streak against the greenback for the fourth session in a row, once again allowing the AUD/USD pair to refresh its monthly highs at 0.7544. The pair met fresh bids this morning after Australia released GDP numbers, which came out above market expectations. Furthermore, ongoing softness of the US dollar and mild recovery of the commodity market allowed the pair to consolidate its overnight gains and keep its range near the level of 0.7540. Nothing much is scheduled in the data calendar for today, so broad market sentiments and upbeat Australian data will continue to determine pair’s further directional course.

The GBP/USD pair is showing lack of momentum, hovering near 1.2900 level so far this session, as investors remain nervous ahead of the key risky event of this week - the UK general election. According to the latest opinion polls, Conservatives are still holding its leading position in this election race, while the gap vs. its nearest opponent is ranging between 1% and 10%. However, seems that the market has started to price in a win of the Conservative party, as it could bring more clarity over Brexit developments, which in turn, will be highly supportive to the pound. Further, both calendars will remain muted throughout this Wednesday, so the pair will continue to stay under influence of the latest headlines from the UK political field.

The USD/JPY lost its upside momentum in early Europe, having faced resistance at 109.63 level, as better risk-on sentiments, backed by upbeat dynamics of oil prices and attempts of the US dollar to recover its positions, have faded away. Seems that concerns over tomorrow’s crucial events are starting to gather pace across the market, thereby increasing demand for safe-haven assets, such as the Japanese currency. Moreover, seems that the US dollar continues to suffer from weak results of the US economy, providing additional pressure for the pair lately. Looking ahead, today we have absolutely empty data calendar, so broader market risk sentiments will remain as an exclusive driver for the pair this Wednesday, while Japanese GDP numbers will be able to bring some impetus to the pair during the next Asian session.

The main events of the day:
US Crude Oil Inventories – 17.30 (GMT +3)

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1223 R. 1.1311
USDJPY S. 108.42 R. 111.00
GBPUSD S. 1.2831 R. 1.2987
USDCHF S. 0.9588 R. 0.9668
AUDUSD S. 0.7430 R. 0.7560
NZDUSD S. 0.7093 R. 0.7249
USDCAD S. 1.3408 R. 1.3508

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Wednesday, June 28th

The EUR/USD pair remains highly positive in the middle of this week, having refreshed its multimonth highs at 1.1380 level in early Europe. Yesterday the pair received a huge boost from upbeat comments of the ECB President M.Draghi, delivered at the ECB Symposium. During his speech, Mr.Draghi stressed that softer inflation is temporary and growth of the EU economy is seen above trend. The market took these comments as a hint on a possible QE program tapering, thereby increasing demand for the common currency. Moreover, the US dollar mostly ignored yesterday Fed Chair J.Yellen’s neutral talks and continued to retreat against its main competitors amid reports of a delay in the Senate vote on the US Healthcare plan. Looking ahead, today developments surrounding the last day of the ECB Forum in Portugal, featuring speech of the ECB President M.Draghi, will hog the limelight during this trading session.

After reaching its 3-week highs at the level of 1.2861, the GBP/USD pair entered consolidation phase, staying near the level of 1.2815 in Asia, as bulls have taken a breather after sharp increase of the pair. Meanwhile, in the Bank of England’s Financial Stability Report, which was released yesterday, the regulator noted risks associated with Brexit negotiations. However, the market mostly ignored slightly dovish stance of the BoE report and following M.Carney’s speech, as prevailing bearish sentiments around the greenback were the main motivator for traders to push the pair higher. Today we will have another speech of the BoE Governor Carney, which will be held at the ECB Symposium later today, and data from the US housing, while ongoing weakness of the US dollar will continue to determine pair’s next steps during this session.

The USD/CAD pair extends its massive decline, refreshing its 4-month lows at 1.3129, as CAD bulls are still full of steam. The pair came under renewed selling pressure in the Asian trading session on hawkish remarks of the BoC Governor S.Poloz, who once again stated that previous rate cuts are not still necessary, thereby lending support to the Loonie. Adding to this, renewed sell-off of the US dollar, backed by a delay in the US Senate vote on the health-care bill, and recovery in oil prices are also providing some pressure to the pair this Wednesday. Now all focus shifts towards the BoC Governor S.Poloz’s speech, scheduled later today, while the US Pending Home Sales report and Crude Oil Inventories will also have a significant impact on the pair during the NA session.

The USD/JPY pair met a support near the level of 112.00 during Asian trades and refreshed its daily tops at 112.40 on the European opening on the back of minor attempts of the US dollar to recover its positions across the board. However, further upside remains capped, as prevailing risk-off moods, backed by the second session of the ECB Forum in Portugal, are underpinning demand for the safe-haven assets. Moreover, it is expected that the US dollar will continue to trade on a softer note during this day, as the market is still digesting recent delay in the vote on the Healthcare bill by the US Senate, which in turn raised concerns over US President D.Trump administration’s ability to fulfill its promises. Today all eyes will be glued to the summit of Central Bank governors, where H.Kuroda will also take part, while RO-RO trend and US dollar’s dynamics will remain as key drivers for the pair throughout this Wednesday.

The main events of the day:
BoE Governor M.Carney’s speech – 16.30 (GMT +3)
BoC Governor S.Poloz’s speech – 16.30 (GMT +3)
ECB President M.Draghi’s speech – 16.30 (GMT +3)
US Pending Home Sales – 17.00 (GMT +3)
US Crude Oil Inventories – 17.30 (GMT +3)

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1117 R. 1.1459
USDJPY S. 111.09 R. 113.09
GBPUSD S. 1.2651 R. 1.2941
USDCHF S. 0.9502 R. 0.9784
AUDUSD S. 0.7547 R. 0.7641
NZDUSD S. 0.7213 R. 0.7371
USDCAD S. 1.3089 R. 1.3315

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Thursday, June 29th

Seems that the Euro bulls took a breather in mid-Asia after enormous rally, which pushed the EUR/USD pair to refresh its 2017 tops at 1.1419 level. Yesterday the major turned sharply lower and became cheaper nearly for a cent after Bloomberg revealed anonymous ECB source’s comments, which said that the market misinterpreted M.Draghi’s remarks on narrowing economic stimulus, delivered at the ECB Symposium on Tuesday. However, the pair managed to regain its positive tone and continued to extend its bullish rally on the back of narrowing monetary policy divergence, as ECB President’s comments were eventually hawkish enough to keep supporting the euro. Adding to that, ongoing broad weakness of the US dollar is also collaborating with pair’s upbeat tone this Thursday. Today after several volatile days we have relatively quiet session with only the US GDP data report, so the market will continue to digest recent economic talks.

The GBP/USD pair was consolidating its yesterday’s gains within 1.2955-70 range, backed by surprisingly hawkish BOE Governor Mark Carney, talking at the European Central Bank Forum. Yesterday Mr.Carney stated that higher inflation is temporary, while noting that the central bank’s tolerance for higher inflation is also limited, so partial withdrawal of monetary policy stimulus will be appropriate if economy continues to improve. Also Head of the BoE added that MPC will discuss further rate increase. Meanwhile, the US dollar continues to remain on offers against its major competitors also lending support to the pair in the second half of this week. In the day ahead, the US economy will release its quarterly GDP report, while the UK docket will remain relatively silent, leaving the pair at the mercy of global market sentiments during the European trading hours.

The USD/CAD pair stalled its downside really in Asia, having faced support near its key psychological level of 1.3000. Today the US dollar continues to stay bearish on disappointing macro data, seen yesterday, and pressure from its major competitors, allowing the pair to refresh its 4-month lows at 1.3013 spot. Moreover, oil prices are extending its bullish momentum, lending support to the commodity-linked assets, despite of red numbers of the weekly EIA report, which showed increase in crude oil stockpiles. However, the market ignored yesterday’s speech of the BoC Governor S.Poloz, who sounded mostly neutral, providing no comments on the current state of the economy. Now all eyes remain on the US GDP report, which is scheduled on the NA session, while oil prices and the USD dynamics will continue to determine pair’s next steps during this Thursday.

The AUD/USD pair is following broad market trend and remains positive, having refreshed its 3-month highs at 0.7681 level. The greenback remains well offered across the board helping the pair to build its bullish momentum, despite of the latest remarks of the Fed Chair J.Yellen, who stated that the central bank would continue increase its interest rates gradually. The pair also benefited from positive sentiments on the commodity market, while better risk environment continues to underpin the demand for higher yielding assets, such as the Aussie. Looking ahead, today investors will await for US GDP data, which will be able to bring some impetus to the pair, while global market sentiments will continue to drive the pair throughout this Thursday

The main events of the day:
US GDP – 15.30 (GMT +3)

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1253 R. 1.1451
USDJPY S. 111.59 R. 112.77
GBPUSD S. 1.2719 R. 1.3073
USDCHF S. 0.9538 R. 0.9676
AUDUSD S. 0.7551 R. 0.7687
NZDUSD S. 0.7229 R. 0.7351
USDCAD S. 1.2900 R. 1.3268

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Friday, June 30th

The EUR/USD pair broke out of its consolidation phase to the downside in early Europe, stepping away from the region of its 14-month highs, marked yesterday at 1.1445 level. Seems that investors prefer to take some profits off the table especially after pair’s recent increase for more than 250-pips over the past three trading sessions, which was triggered by hawkish remarks of the ECB President M.Draghi. Moreover, the greenback has stalled its decline against its main competitors at the end of this week that is also collaborating with pair’s recent brief decline. Now all traders’ attention remains glued to German unemployment data, which will be able to bring some trading opportunities for market participants during European trading hours, while the US docket will keep silence at the end of this week, so the market will continue to digest recent talks of the Chief ECB Banker.

The GBP/USD pair stepped away from its monthly highs this morning, posted at 1.3030 mark in Asia, as UK bulls have taken a breather ahead of UK data. The pair stalled its 4-day upside rally, underpinned by surprisingly hawkish talks of the BOE Governor M.Carney, as traders remain cautious, locking in previous profits ahead of UK GDP prints. Adding to this, minor attempts of the greenback against its major competitors are also collaborating with pair’s brief retreat this morning. Now immediate focus shifts towards UK fundamentals, while the bloc of US minor data releases will keep investors busy during NY trading hours.

The AUD/USD pair has eased part of its recent gains, retreating from its 3-month highs, posted earlier during this trading session at 0.7712 spot on the back of broad profit-taking actions. Today, the weakness of the greenback is still one of the main drivers on the market, which keeps the pair in the green zone, despite yesterday’s better-than-expected US GDP prints. Adding to this, green numbers of Chinese manufacturing and non-manufacturing activities, coupled with prevailing positive tone of commodity assets, especially of copper and iron ores, are also supporting the pair at the end of this week. Looking ahead, today the economic calendar for the pair will remain relatively silent, as the US docket will provide markets with only secondary data reports, so the USD dynamics will continue to drive the pair throughout this trading session.

The USD/JPY pair again came under pressure during the Asian session on Friday and continued to deviate from its monthly highs, located in the region of 113.00. However, the pair managed to keep its positions above the level of 112.00, as returned risk-of tone, triggered by upbeat Chinese data, has eased bearish pressure on the pair. Meanwhile, seems that the market largely ignored the bloc of mixed data from Japan, although it helped to slow down the drop of the pair in early Asia. On the data front, today the US will release only secondary data reports, which will have limited impact on the pair, so broad market trend will determine next steps of USD/JPY in the day ahead.

The main events of the day:
UK GDP – 11.30 (GMT +3)
Prelim. EU CPI – 12.00 (GMT +3)

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1348 R. 1.1490
USDJPY S. 111.17 R. 113.41
GBPUSD S. 1.2889 R. 1.3067
USDCHF S. 0.9527 R. 0.9615
AUDUSD S. 0.7615 R. 0.7719
NZDUSD S. 0.7245 R. 0.7359
USDCAD S. 1.2953 R. 1.3067

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Monday, July 3rd

The EUR/USD pair extends its downside correction from its 3-month highs, having broken through resistance, located at 1.14 level, as bulls have taken a breather ahead of eventful week. Moreover, the greenback is trying hard to regain its position after broad retreat across the market, as traders are waiting for FOMC Meeting Minutes, which expectedly will hint on better inflation growth pace later this week. Adding to this, slightly better risk-on sentiments, triggered by green numbers of Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI, are also negatively affecting the pair this Monday. Now immediate focus shifts towards the bloc of Manufacturing PMIs from Eurozone, featuring German and global EU reports, while the US ISM Manufacturing PMI data will also be able to bring some impetus to the pair in the NA session.

The GBP/USD pair retreats from its 6-week highs, posted at 1.3030 last Friday, reversing part of its gains after 4-day winning streak and falling below its key support level of 1.3000. Seems that recovery of the US currency remains the main driving factor across the market, pushing the pair in the north direction, despite of improved risk appetite, triggered by upbeat Chinese manufacturing data. However, it is expected that pound’s upside rally is not over yet, backed by hawkish remarks of the BoE Governor Mark Carney, who noted the Bank could remove some of the current stimulus, as today we will again hear speeches of the BoE representatives – M.Carney and BoE’s Chief Economist A.Haldane. Adding to this, today investors will also focus their attention on manufacturing PMIs from both sides, which will also be able to shape up pair’s further direction.

The AUD/USD pair failed to benefit from better-than-expected Caixin Chinese PMI, which in turn boosted demand for risky assets, such as the Aussie, as weak data from the Australian housing market slowed down AUD bulls. Moreover, softer tone on the commodity market, featuring retreat of the copper, is also negatively affecting the pair at the beginning of this week. It is expected that today the pair will continue to extend its mild bearish bias, as recovery of the US dollar and cautious tone of the market ahead of RBA interest rate decision, which is scheduled on the next Asian session, will keep the pair under the pressure throughout this Monday. Besides Australian cash rate decision, investors will also look forward to the ISM Manufacturing PMI report to gain some pips in the NA session.

After having witnessed a bearish opening gap, the USD/JPY pair is navigating in the north direction at the start of this week, trying to retake last week highs, located 112.93 spot. Seems that the market remained unimpressed with mixed data from Japanese manufacturing sector, providing no support to the yen. Adding to this, slight recovery of the US dollar against its main competitors, backed by market expectations of hawkish hints from FOMC Meeting Minutes, which is due on cards later this week, and better risk-on tone are also supporting the pair this Monday. Looking ahead, today market participants will focus their attention on manufacturing data from the US, which will be able to bring fresh trading opportunities during the NA session.

The main events of the day:
UK Manufacturing PMI – 11.30 (GMT +3)
BoE Governor M.Carney’s speech – 15.00 (GMT +3)
US ISM Manufacturing PMI – 17.00 (GMT +3)

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1366 R. 1.1472
USDJPY S. 111.35 R. 113.11
GBPUSD S. 1.2914 R. 1.3086
USDCHF S. 0.9532 R. 0.9624
AUDUSD S. 0.7644 R. 0.7734
NZDUSD S. 0.7267 R. 0.7377
USDCAD S. 1.2907 R. 1.3037

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Wednesday, July 5th

The EUR/USD pair regained its positive tone in Asia, as traders remain cautious ahead the key risky event of this Wednesday. Today markets remain in anticipation of the release of FOMC June meeting minutes, which will be able to shed some light on further Fed monetary policy moves. Markets are broadly expecting that FOMC protocols will hint on another rate increase by the end of this year. Adding to this, the euro also benefits from geopolitical tensions, triggered by North Korea’s missile launch, which are driving flows away from risky assets this Wednesday. Besides FOMC minutes, today traders will also see bloc of PMIs from the euro area, which will be able to bring some impetus to the pair during the European trading session.

The USD/JPY pair managed to recover part of its overnight losses, however, remaining under pressure amid increased demand for safety, backed by rising geopolitical tensions. The pair recover its positions above the level of 113 in early Europe on the back of minor attempts of the US dollar to extend its recent recovery mode. However, ongoing risk-aversions, underpinned by North Korea’s ICBM launch and aggressive talks of Kim Jong-un, are limiting pair’s further increase. Recently leader of North Korea stated that he intends to complete tests of ballistic missiles, which can reach the continental US. Taking into account recent events, the UN Security Council called an emergency meeting on Wednesday, to discuss the launch of North Korean missiles. Looking ahead, today the pair will continue to follow broad risk trend and USD price-dynamics, while key risky event for the pair remains release of FOMC Meeting Minutes, which is scheduled on NY afternoon.

The GBP/USD pair was unable to hold its overnight recovery mode and fell to the region of its weekly lows, located near 1.2900 level. Broad risk-aversion, triggered by tensions over North Korea missile launch, remains one of the key driving factors across the market, restraining demand for higher-yielding instruments, such as GBP. Adding to pound’s losses, streak of disappointing PMIs, seen lately, is also limiting pair’s chances to recover its positions, so the market remains cautious, as today we will see another UK PMI report, which is scheduled on European trading hours. Besides UK fundamentals, today traders will also closely look for FOMC Meeting Minutes, which are scheduled on NA session, as they could hint on further Fed steps.

The AUD/USD pair is trading with mild bullish tone, correcting higher after yesterday’s slump, backed by neutral stance of the RBA. However, further recovery of the pair seems unlikely, as weaker-than-expected Chinese Caixin Services PMI, coupled with strong broad risk-off trend, are weighing the Aussie in the middle of this week. Adding to this, the market is still digesting recent outcome of the RBA meeting, during which the regulator decided to keep its neutral stance, leaving the AUD at the mercy of bears. Today investors will focus their attention on FOMC minutes, which are due for release in the American afternoon, while US dollar’s price actions will continue to navigate the pair during the European trading session.

The main events of the day:
UK Services PMI – 11.30 (GMT +3)
FOMC Meeting Minutes – 21.00 (GMT +3)

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1311 R. 1.1393
USDJPY S. 112.42 R. 113.86
GBPUSD S. 1.2883 R. 1.2975
USDCHF S. 0.9606 R. 0.9682
AUDUSD S. 0.7535 R. 0.7717
NZDUSD S. 0.7245 R. 0.7319
USDCAD S. 1.2851 R. 1.3055

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Monday, July 10th

The EUR/USD pair was showing minor volatility during Asian session, keeping position within 10 pips narrow range near the level of 1.14. However, demand for the euro continues to cheer up bulls, as the ECB is showing surprisingly hawkish tone over the last few weeks, narrowing divergence of monetary policies between the ECB and Fed. However, lack of momentum could be explained by Friday’s positive results from the US labor market, which underpins investors’ hopes of another Federal Reserve’s rate hike in December, thus keeping US bulls in shape at the start of this week. In absence of any important market moving data on Monday, the US dollar’s price dynamics will stay as a key driver for the pair during this trading session.

The GBP/USD pair is trading on a firm note this Monday, extending recovery from its 1-1/2 week lows, posted at 1.2869 after disappointing results from the UK economy. On Friday, the pound once again came under strong bearish pressure, following poor Manufacturing Production data, which forced the pair to lose more than a cent and break below resistance level, located at 1.29 spot. Moreover, seems that dust around mixed data from the US labor market has started to settle down, allowing the pair to correct higher this Monday. Adding to this, slightly better tone on the commodity market has reignited risk-appetite among investors, providing some support to higher-yielding currencies, such as the pound. It is expected that the pair will continue to show low activity during this trading session, as both US and UK calendars will remain silent at the start of this week.

The AUD/USD pair is trading with bullish bias at the start of this week, keeping its positions just a few pips above the level of 0.7600. The Aussie barely reacted on mixed Chinese inflation data, seen this morning, and positive tone of the greenback, backed by Friday’s better-then-expected NFP numbers, lending support to the pair this Monday. On the other hand, further upside appears fragile, as markets continue to digest recent data from the US labor market, which positively affects chances of another Fed rate hike this year. Looking ahead, today we have absolutely empty data session, so market’s attention will remain focused on the USD dynamics and broad risk trends throughout this Monday.

The yen remains one of the worst performers of this trading session, allowing the USD/JPY pair to step above the level of 114. Currently the pair is trading within striking distance of its 2-month tops, marked at 114.24, as BOJ Governor H.Kuroda once again showed intentions to adjust monetary policy, by expanding QE program, if it is necessary. Adding to this, bloc of weak Japanese data, featuring machinery orders, also collaborates with pair’s upside at the start of this week. Today the market will continue to digest Friday’s jobs report, which signaled that the Fed might stay on its tightening path, as both dockets won’t bring anything important during this Monday.

The main events of the day:
None

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1345 R. 1.1465
USDJPY S. 112.65 R. 114.81
GBPUSD S. 1.2797 R. 1.3013
USDCHF S. 0.9564 R. 0.9690
AUDUSD S. 0.7547 R. 0.7649
NZDUSD S. 0.7233 R. 0.7333
USDCAD S. 1.2775 R. 1.3043

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Tuesday, July 11th

The EUR/USD pair recovered part of its overnight retreat by the European opening, as the US dollar corrects slightly lower against its main competitors on Tuesday. During Asia, the pair came under renewed selling pressure after FOMC member J.Williams accelerated bullish run of the US dollar against its main competitors, noting that he expects another Fed rate hike this year. Adding to this, increased demand for higher-yielding assets, which was navigating the market during the Asian session, was also negatively influencing the pair. However, as the market passed over Friday’s upbeat NFP print, which increased expectations of another Fed rate hike by the end of this year, the pair managed to regain some pips in early Europe, as investors are still digesting hawkish tone of the ECB President M.Draghi during his recent talks. Today all traders attention will remain focused on the JOLTs Job Openings report, while several Fedspeaks, scheduled on NA session, will also be closely watched for any hints on further Fed steps.

The USD/CAD pair faded its overnight recovery, falling back to the region of its 10-month lows, posted at 1.2860 level after strong data from the Canadian labor market. Seems that US bulls remain unable to perform goodish recovery from its current region, as dust around better-then-expected NFP is slowly settling down, limiting any chances of the pair to recover its positions. Adding to this, recently increased expectations that the BoC might revise its monetary policy to more hawkish are supporting the Loonie, as the Canadian economy continues to show positive results lately and according to the latest remarks of Bank members there is no more need for easing measures. Now traders’ attention shifts towards the bloc of data from both neighbor economies, featuring the JOLTS Job Openings report and several second tier releases, which are scheduled on NA session, while sentiments around oil prices will continue to navigate the pair during European trading hours.

The Kiwi remains the biggest loser across the board on Tuesday, allowing the NZD/USD pair to test its multiweek lows at 0.7225, despite risk-on moods. Seems that NZ bulls barely reacted on better risk-on tone, which was the main driver across the market during the Asian session, as weaker-then-expected data from the NZ economy and underpinned sentiments around the greenback exerted bearish pressure on the pair. However, slightly better sentiments around the oil, seen during Asia, have limited pair’s downside, allowing it to regain some pips in early Europe. Later today, investors will be looking forward for the JOLTS Job Openings data release, while broad market sentiments will continue to drive the pair during this trading session.

The dollar/yen pair remains bullish for the third consecutive session on Tuesday, having refreshed its 4-month tops at 114.48 level earlier this trading session. Seems that yesterday’s poor data from Japanese economy are still weighing on the yen, forcing the pair to stay on a green territory so far this week. Moreover, better sentiments around the US dollar, underpinned by better-then-expected jobs report, and slightly increased risk appetite will continue to cheer up bulls in the session ahead. Today we will have another quiet data session with only the US JOLTs Job Openings report to be released during New York trading hours, so broad market trend will remain as a key driver for the major throughout his Tuesday.

The main events of the day:
US JOLTs Job Openings – 17.00 (GMT +3)

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1362 R. 1.1436
USDJPY S. 113.63 R. 114.49
GBPUSD S. 1.2827 R. 1.2935
USDCHF S. 0.9608 R. 0.9698
AUDUSD S. 0.7574 R. 0.7630
NZDUSD S. 0.7253 R. 0.7293
USDCAD S. 1.2832 R. 1.2960

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Wednesday, July 12th

The EUR/USD pair corrected slightly lower from its 14-month highs, posted at 1.1489 this morning, on the back of minor profit-taking actions ahead of Fed Chair J.Yellen’s testimony. Yesterday the pair received strong bullish boost, as the US dollar came under pressure amid another US political scandal and slightly dovish Fedspeaks. Now all eyes are directed on Fed Chairwoman J.Yellen’s semiannual Monetary Policy Report before the House Financial Services Committee. It is expected that policymaker will justify another rate hike this year, while any details regarding further actions of the Federal Reserve will be able to shape up pair’s short-term trend. Besides Mrs Yellen’s speech, nothing important is scheduled in data calendar for this Wednesday, so broad market trend will continue to lead the pair throughout European trading hours.

The USD/CAD pair struggles to correct higher after last week’s slump, remaining under pressure so far this week amid US dollar’s weakness and better tone around oil prices. Yesterday the greenback once again came under bearish pressure amid renewed US-Russia political drama, forcing the pair to reverse its yesterday’s gains. Adding to this, solid recovery of oil prices, backed by larger-then-expected drawdown in crude oil stockpiles by API, is also adding some bearish pressure on the pair this week. Today we have data-heavy session ahead, with Fed Chair J.Yellen’s testimony, US Crude Oil Inventories and BoC interest rate decision. It is expected that the Canadian regulator will increase today its cash rate by 25 bps, especially after recent hawkish talks of BoC members, which showed Bank’s readiness to refuse previous monetary policy easing measures, so the market will keep wait-and-see mode ahead of key risky events of this Wednesday.

The USD/JPY pair extends retreat from its multiweek highs, losing more than 100 pips from the level of 114.49, which was marked during previous trading session, as risk-off moods are dominating the market this Wednesday. Yesterday the market reacted aggressively on headlines that current US President D.Trump could receive some support from Russia during his presidential campaign last year, sending the US dollar sharply lower against its major competitors. Furthermore, the US political drama has heavily increased demand for safe-haven assets, sending USD/JPY to refresh its weekly lows at 113.32 spot. Adding to this, fresh wave of risk aversion ahead of the key risky event of this Wednesday is also adding some bullish pressure to the yen. It is expected that the pair will extend its corrective downside move during the European trading session, as risk-off sentiments and weaker USD dollar remain as key determinants for the pair in the middle of this week, while Fed Chair J.Yellen testimony will hog the limelight in the NA session.

The GBP/USD pair broke out of its overnight consolidation to the downside, having refreshed its its 2-week lows at 1.2815 spot, as the market turns cautious ahead of Fed Chairwoman J.Yellen’s testimony that negatively affects the pound. Moreover, yesterday the pair came under strong selling pressure, losing nearly a cent since previous session’s highs, as the market remained disappointed by uninformative talks by BOE policymakers – A.Haldane and B.Broadbent, which failed to provide any details on monetary policy or economic outlook. Now immediate focus shifts towards the UK employment data release, which will bring some fresh trading opportunities to investors in European session. However, increasing cautiousness ahead of Fed Chair J.Yellen’s testimony before the House Financial Services Committee will limit market’s reaction on UK data, as US policymaker’s speech remains the riskiest event of this Wednesday.

The main events of the day:
UK Average Earnings Index +Bonus – 11.30 (GMT +3)
UK Claimant Count Change – 11.30 (GMT +3)
Fed Chair J.Yellen Testimony – 17.00 (GMT +3)
BoC Interest Rate Decision – 17.00 (GMT +3)
US Crude Oil Inventories – 17.30 (GMT +3)
BoC Governor S.Poloz Speech – 18.15 (GMT +3)

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1345 R. 1.1539
USDJPY S. 113.27 R. 114.83
GBPUSD S. 1.2771 R. 1.2965
USDCHF S. 0.9580 R. 0.9724
AUDUSD S. 0.7588 R. 0.7666
NZDUSD S. 0.7157 R. 0.7311
USDCAD S. 1.2855 R. 1.2973

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Friday, July 14th

The EUR/USD pair remains largely flat-lined near the level of 1.14 on the final day of this week, barely benefiting from shrinking expectations of Fed aggressive tightening policy. Seems that EUR bulls also lack of any momentum today, as recent dovish comments of ECB member I.Rimsevics, talking about weaker inflation and necessity to run the QE program, are weighing the pair somewhat this Friday. On the other hand, shrinking risk appetite ahead of US fundamentals is lending some support to the euro, forcing the pair to step away from its overnights lows. Now all eyes remain glued to the US economic inflation data, which will bring some hints regarding further divergence between Fed and ECB political courses, thereby shaping up pair’s short-term trajectory. Besides inflation prints, the US will also release retail sales data, while Eurozone trade balance will keep investors busy during European trading hours.

The GBP/USD pair is navigating to the north so far this session, as the US dollar remains broadly subdued on mixed remarks of Fed Chair J.Yellen. The greenback continues to stay under pressure of recent uninformative talks of the Fed head policymaker, who stated that the regulator would enter wait-and-see mode before adjusting its monetary policy. However, talks of Mrs. J.Yellen did not close the door for another rate increase in upcoming months what makes possible for the dollar to correct its position in near-term projection. On the other side, seems that the market has passed over recent concerns over the Brexit deal, as the UK Government finally conceded that it will have to pay EU exit bill. Looking ahead, today the UK docked once again will leave the pair at the mercy of global market trend during European trades, while the bloc of important US data will take center stage in the NA session, as it will be able to shape up pair’s further direction in short-term projection.

The dollar/yen pair is retreating from its overnight highs, marked at 113.58, despite better risk tone, seen during Asia. General market moods regarding recent Fed Chair J.Yellen’s testimony remains broadly disappointed, as head of the US regulator failed to provide any information regarding further Fed monetary policy steps, while noting that further rate increase would be appropriate if inflation shows better growth results. The market considered this comments as dovish, dumping expectations of another rate hike by the end of this year that in turn weighed the greenback across the board. In the day ahead, it is expected that the pair will extend its bearish bias during European trading session, as investors turn cautious ahead of the US CPI report, which will be especially important in light of recent Mrs. J.Yellen’s remarks.

The AUD/USD pair extends its bullish rally, refreshing today this year highs at 0.7759 spot on the back of positive risk-on tone. Easing concerns of an economic slowdown in China are positively influencing the risk-on environment and as a result boosting demand for the Aussie. Adding to this, better tone on the commodity market and broad weakness of the US dollar are also collaborating with pair’s recent bullish run. However, further upside of the pair looks fragile on the back of shrinking risk appetite, as the market turns cautious ahead of this Friday’s major data reports. Today the US economy will release a slew of important macroeconomic reports, featuring the US inflation and retail sales, which will hog the limelight in the NA session.

The main events of the day:
US Core CPI – 15.30 (GMT +3)
US Core Retail Sales – 15.30 (GMT +3)
US Retail Sales – 15.30 (GMT +3)

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1322 R. 1.1492
USDJPY S. 112.56 R. 113.88
GBPUSD S. 1.2842 R. 1.3002
USDCHF S. 0.9586 R. 0.9728
AUDUSD S. 0.7647 R. 0.7779
NZDUSD S. 0.7189 R. 0.7433
USDCAD S. 1.2688 R. 1.2788

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Tuesday, July 18th

The EUR/USD pair extends its bullish run for the third session in a row, refreshing its 14-month highs at 1.1538 spot, as the US president is losing the trust of his voters. The US dollar came under strong selling pressure against its major competitors in Asia, as D.Trump’s Healthcare bill failed to pass through Senate vote yet again. This streak of fails has increased concerns over D.Trump’s ability to deliver on the pre-election campaign promises, especially regarding his much-awaited tax reforms. However, seems that bulls took a breather in European morning, allowing the pair to correct slightly lower, as traders are repositioning their bets ahead of the bloc of economic reports by ZEW. Besides ZEW surveys, today the US economy will release the bloc of secondary economic reports, however, it is expected that the reaction of the market will be limited, so the US dollar price actions will continue to navigate the pair during the NA session.

The AUD/USD pair is showing huge volatility on Tuesday, having pierced the level of 0.7900, which was last seen two years ago, on the back of another D.Trump administration’s failure. Today it is became known that the US Senate once again rejected Obamacare replacement that in turn drops a shadow on US president’s ability to fulfill his promises. Adding to this, hawkish RBA Meeting Minutes also added some fuel to Aussie’s rally, as AUS policymakers consider that the Australian economy is showing good results as of late, thus increasing market’s expectations that the RBA could increase its interest rate soon. This recent events have boosted the Aussie across the board, sending the major to leap more than a cent higher during the Asian trading session. In the day ahead, the US economy will bring only secondary data reports, so the USD dynamics and hawkish RBA minutes will continue to underpin the sentiment around the pair during this session.

The NZD/USD pair is trading on a firm note on Tuesday, keeping its positions near the mid-point of 0.73 level, after solid comeback, backed by a slump of the US dollar across the board. Earlier this session, Kiwi caught fresh offers, losing more than 60 pips against its US competitor, after New Zealand inflation figures missed market’s estimates, dragging the NZD/USD to the region of 0.7260. However, the pair managed to reverse its downside spike and refresh its daily tops, as recent news that the US Senate rejected Trump’s health care bill weighed the greenback against its major competitors. Today the US docket will continue to keep silence for the second session in a row, so broad US dollar weakness will remain as an exclusive driver for the pair throughout this trading session.

The GBP/USD pair was navigating in the north direction during the Asian trading session, getting closer to the level of 1.3100, as broad weakness of the US dollar is navigating the market on Tuesday. However, seems that the market turned cautious at the start of the European trading session, forcing the pair to stall its upside rally ahead of the UK CPI release, which in turn could hint on monetary policy divergence between the Fed and BOE. These indicators could be especially important in light of recent dovish Fed Chair J.Yellen’s testimony and hawkish talks of BoE MPC members. Besides UK inflation reports, investors will also pay attention to comments of BoE Governor Mark Carney, who will deliver his speech at the beginning of the New York trades, while the US calendar will remain data on Tuesday, so broad weakness of the dollar and UK fundamentals will be navigating the pair during NA session.

The main events of the day:
UK CPI – 11.30 (GMT +3)
German ZEW Economic Sentiment – 12.00 (GMT +3)
BoE Governor M.Carney’s speech – 16.30 (GMT +3)

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1414 R. 1.1518
USDJPY S. 112.07 R. 113.13
GBPUSD S. 1.3004 R. 1.3136
USDCHF S. 0.9561 R. 0.9689
AUDUSD S. 0.7763 R. 0.7855
NZDUSD S. 0.7279 R. 0.7379
USDCAD S. 1.2603 R. 1.2745

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[EEAnalytics]

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Wednesday, July 19th

The EUR/USD pair is correcting lower today from its 14-month highs, marked at 1.1583 level in the previous trading session. Seems that the dust around yesterday’s rejection of Trump’s Healthcare bill by the Senate has settled down, allowing the US dollar to correct higher against its major peers that in turn is weighing on the pair this Wednesday. However, further decline of the pair seems fragile, as the market turns cautious ahead of tomorrow’s ECB meeting. It is expected that the regulator will leave its interest rate at the same level, while any announcements regarding QE program will have significant influence on the pair. In the day ahead, the US will release fundamental reports from the housing market in the NA session, which will be able to bring some impetus to the pair, while the EU docket will remain silent today, allowing the US dollar to navigate the pair during European trading hours.

The USD/JPY pair is extending its previous session’s recovery, as the US dollar corrects higher amid profit-taking actions after its yesterday’s sharp decline across the market. The US dollar has finally stalled its broad sell-off, triggered by failure of the D.Trump’s Healthcare bill to pass through Senate vote, and now is correcting higher against its main competitors, that remains one of the main drivers for the pair this Wednesday. Adding to this, slightly improved risk appetite is also weighing on the Japanese yen’s safe-haven status so far this session. On the other hand, lack of any fresh directional impetus is forcing the pair to keep its positions near the level of 112, as traders are turning cautious ahead of the next risky event – BoJ interest rate decision, which is scheduled on the next Asian session. Besides BoJ monetary policy decision, traders will also look forward for data from the US housing market, which will be able to bring fresh trading opportunities during the NA session.

The AUD/USD pair extends its bullish rally above the level of 0.7900, refreshing its 26-month highs, barely reacting on the US dollar’s correction. Pair’s upside could be mainly attributed to yesterday’s hawkish RBA meeting minutes, which continue to provide support to the Australian dollar. Moreover, positive risk-on environment, which was prevailing on the market throughout the Asian trading session, also collaborates with pair’s bullish tone in the middle of this week. Next of note for the pair remains the US housing market data, which will provide some short-term trading impetus in the NA session, while Australian jobs data will take center stage during the next Asian session on Thursday.

The GBP/USD pair has stalled its overnights retreat, meeting support in the region of 1.3025-30, as traders have passed over yesterday’s weak results of the UK economy and now are awaiting for a fresh directional impetus from the upcoming US macro data. On Tuesday, the pair came under strong selling pressure, having lost nearly a cent since yesterday’s highs, after UK CPI numbers missed market’s expectations. Adding to this, following uninformative speech of the BoE Governor Mark Carny, during which head of the regulator stated that the picture on the UK inflation remains the same, also didn’t provide any relief to the pound. On the other hand, broad weakness of the US dollar, backed by Trump’s Healthcare bill failure, allowed the pair to step away from its last session lows. Looking ahead, today investors will focus their attention on data from the US housing market, while the UK will continue to keep silence on Tuesday, so the USD dynamics will remain as a key determinant for the pair during the European trading session.

The main events of the day:
US Building Permits – 15.30 (GMT +3)
US Crude Oil Inventories – 17.30 (GMT +3)

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1424 R. 1.1648
USDJPY S. 111.14 R. 113.12
GBPUSD S. 1.2935 R. 1.3177
USDCHF S. 0.9458 R. 0.9680
AUDUSD S. 0.7725 R. 0.8037
NZDUSD S. 0.7216 R. 0.7438
USDCAD S. 1.2515 R. 1.2757

Your European ECN-broker,
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[EEAnalytics]

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Friday, July 21st

The EUR/USD pair broke out of its brief consolidation phase, having refreshed its nearly 2-year highs at 1.1677 in Asia, as investors continue to digest recent talks of ECB President M.Draghi. Yesterday the pair performed aggressive bullish rally, despite neutral tone of Mr.Draghi during ECB press conference, talking about weaker inflation and possible extension of the QE program. However, Chief of the ECB confirmed readiness of the regulator to tackle the issue of the QE program in September. In addition, traders took positively Mr.Draghi’s comments on confident recovery of Eurozone’s economy, noting that recent weakness in inflation considered by the ECB as temporary. Meanwhile, the dollar has its own problems amid a new wave of scandals around possible US president D.Trump business deals with Russia. Later today, in absence of fresh fundamentals from both sides the pair will continue tracing US dollar’s price actions and global market trend to determine its further development course.

The AUD/USD pair came under intense selling pressure on the last trading day of this week, having refreshed its 4-day lows at 0.7875 level after dovish talks of the RBA member. In Asia Deputy Governor of the RBA G.Debelle delivered dovish comments, citing that recent neutral outcome of the RBA meeting didn’t indicate to upcoming RBA’s policy tightening steps. Also Mr. Debelle stated that current cash rate is appropriate for policy objectives and it shouldn’t necessarily increase along with other rates abroad. However, the pair managed to recover some pips and climb back above the level of 0.7900, as the greenback continues to remain offered today on the back of another wave of US political tensions. Today nothing much is scheduled in the economic calendar for this Friday, so the pair will continue to follow global market trend, while dovish comments of the RBA member will continue to influence the Aussie for a while.

The NZD/USD pair continues to navigate in the north direction for the fourth consecutive session, refreshing its 10-month highs at 0.7434 level in response to hawkish remarks of New Zealand’s Finance Minister S.Joyce. During the Asian trading session the pair broke out of its consolidation phase to the upside, despite prevailing risk-off sentiments, as NZ FinMin S.Joyce lent strong support on the Kiwi, saying that current level of the NZD reflects a strong economy. Adding to this, broad weakness of the US currency and positive data from the NZ economy are also collaborating with pair’s bullish run on Friday. Looking ahead, today we will have relatively quiet data session, so broad market trend, driven by softness of the greenback, will remain as a key determinant for the pair throughout this trading session.

The GBP/USD pair is trading on a firm note at the end of this week, remaining within striking distance of its daily highs, located in the area of 1.30, as the US dollar fails to recover after yesterday’s slump. However, further upside of the pair seems fragile, as uncertainty over the Brexit deal is still weighing the pound somewhat. After yesterday’s meeting of chief negotiators from the UK and EU, issues of EU citizens’ rights and the amount of the UK divorce bill continue to remain key topics for discussion. Adding to this, the pair stalled overnight recovery from its weekly lows, marked yesterday at 1.2933, as broad demand for safety is limiting pound’s possible gains. In the day ahead, the pair will continue to navigate, following broad market trend, as both economies will keep silence at the end of this trading week.

The main events of the day:
Canadian Core CPI – 15.30 (GMT +3)
Canadian Core Retail Sales – 15.30 (GMT +3)

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1411 R. 1.1767
USDJPY S. 110.99 R. 112.87
GBPUSD S. 1.2879 R. 1.3079
USDCHF S. 0.9415 R. 0.9667
AUDUSD S. 0.7856 R. 0.8038
NZDUSD S. 0.7301 R. 0.7463
USDCAD S. 1.2491 R. 1.2691

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